USGS – Polar Bear Ecoregions
POLAR BEARS : The New Symbol Of Climate Change Realism And A Stable Arctic
Posted: February 3, 2020 Filed under: Alarmist media, Arctic, Climate Change, Climatism, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Polar Bears, Sceptics, Science | Tags: arctic, Arctic Sea Ice, Climate Change, Climate Change realism, Climatism, Global Warming, Greta Thunberg, nature, Penguins, Polar Bears, sceptics, science, Science and Environment 2 Comments
POLAR BEARS – The New Symbol Of Climate Scepticism and A Stable Arctic | CLIMATISM
“THE polar bear as an icon for climate change is dead
because the distorted predictions made by
polar bear specialists were wrong.”
“THIS is a lesson for researchers in other areas
who have failed to stop the invasion of
politics into their science.”
***
Hat tip @EcologySenseUK
FOR years, the Polar Bear has been abused by climate change activists as the poster child of ClimateChange™️. They didn’t use rats or spiders to promote their misanthropic agenda. Instead, they chose the cute, cuddly, fluffy polar bear to illicit a desired emotional response.
“Climate Action” Poster Child | CLIMATISM
YOU would have noticed that the polar bear is a much less common feature in science, while the fake news mainstream media has stopped using the polar bear as a propaganda tool to drive their climate agenda.
THE Arctic bear has been superseded by child soldiers and penguins …
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REAL SCIENCE …
POLAR BEARS
“PUBLIC safety concerns, combined with the effects of
polar bears on other species, suggest that
in many Nunavut communities, the polar bear
may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
– Nunavut’s polar bear population is unsafe,
government document says – The Globe and Mail
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WITH deadly irony, polar bear numbers have grown dramatically and to “dangerous” levels as carbon dioxide emissions have risen. A CO2 correlation, at last!
INDIGENOUS Inuit’s of Northern Canada are now facing the very real task of having to cull the population as “the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
“Inuit believe there are now so many bears that public safety has become a major concern,”
“Public safety concerns, combined with the effects of polar bears on other species, suggest that in many Nunavut communities, the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
Nunavut’s polar bear population is unsafe, government document says – The Globe and Mail
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POLAR BEAR POPULATION (1981 – 2015)
Polar Bear Population (1981 – 2015)
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POLAR BEAR POPULATION – THE LATEST COUNT
via Susan Crockford PhD :
Susan Crockford is zoologist with more than 35 years experience, including published work on the Holocene history of Arctic animals.
UNTIL last year, Dr. Crockford ‘was’ adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbia, until UVic bowed to outside pressure and rescinded her adjunct professor status.
TELLING the truth on climate change and polar bears is considered heresy in the post-normal society of climate change hysteria that we currently inhabit. Just ask Peter Ridd.
Latest global polar bear abundance ‘best guess’ estimate is 39,000 (26,000-58,000)
It’s long past time for polar bear specialists to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate that will never be achieved and determine a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Since they have so far refused to do this, I have done it for them. My extrapolated estimate of 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible.
In 2014, the chairman of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) emailed me to say that their global population size number ‘has never been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand.’
In my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, I contend that this situation will probably never change, so it’s time to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate and generate a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Recent surveys from several critical polar bear subpopulations have given us the information necessary to do this.
UPDATE: I have made this a sticky post for a while: new posts will appear below.
These new numbers make it possible to extrapolate from ‘known’ to ‘unknown’ subpopulations within so-called ‘sea ice ecoregions’ (defined in 2007 by polar bear scientists at the US Geological Survey, see Amstrup et al. 2007), as shown below, to update old estimates and generate new ones for never-studied areas.
Since the PBSG has so far refused to take this step, I took on the challenge. I contend that an estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. See the graph below from my new book:
Global polar bear population size estimates to 2018. From Chapter 10 of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened (Crockford 2019).
This new estimate for 2018 is a modest 4-6 fold increase over the 10,000 or so bears that existed in the 1960s and after 25 years, a credible increase over the estimate of 25,000 that the PBSG offered in 1993 (Wiig et al. 1995).
However, my new estimate is much larger than the improbable figure of about 26,000 (range 22,000-31,000) offered by PGSG biologists in 2015 (Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015). The scary question is this: what do Arctic residents do if there are actually as many as 58,000?
See my new book (Crockford 2019) for the full rationale and references used to arrive at this figure.
The bottom line: it is scientifically unacceptable for the PBSG to continue to refuse to provide an extrapolated ‘best guess’ global estimate for polar bears, given that the scientifically accurate estimate they crave is essentially unattainable. An estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible.
REFERENCES
Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century.US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf here
Crockford, S.J. 2019. The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Available in paperback and ebook formats.
Regehr, E.V., Laidre, K.L, Akçakaya, H.R., Amstrup, S.C., Atwood, T.C., Lunn, N.J., Obbard, M., Stern, H., Thiemann, G.W., & Wiig, Ø. 2016. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines. Biology Letters 12: 20160556. http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556
Wiig, Ø., Born, E.W., and Garner, G.W. (eds.) 1995. Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 11th working meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialists Group, 25-27 January, 1993, Copenhagen, Denmark. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN. http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/meetings/
Wiig, Ø., Amstrup, S., Atwood, T., Laidre, K., Lunn, N., Obbard, M., et al. 2015. Ursus maritimus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2015: e.T22823A14871490. Available fromhttp://www.iucnredlist.org/details/22823/0 [accessed Nov. 28, 2015]. See the supplement for population figures.
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WATCH …
TUCKER CARLSON interviews Zoologist and Polar Bear specialist Dr. Susan Crockford on the prime time ratings-killer show Tucker Carlson Tonight, in a must watch segment that demonstrates how “overpopulation”, not extinction, is now the problem :
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PROPAGANDA RULES
THIS is what your children are being taught and ordered to say about Polar Bears and global warming climate change. Blatant lies and falsehoods …
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THE ARCTIC
DIRE predictions of an “ice-free” Arctic remain a popular and effective fear-mongering tool in the bag of ClimateChange™️.
SOME of the Arctic sea-ice predictions made by alarmists ‘scientists’ and the mainstream media over the years. ALL of which have failed to materialise :
- “Arctic summers ice-free by 2013” (BBC 2007)
- “Could all Arctic ice be gone by 2012?” (AP 2007)
- “Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?”(National Geographic 2007)
- “Imagine yourself in a world five years from now, where there is no more ice over the Arctic” – Tim Flannery (2008)
- “North Pole could be ice-free in 2008” – Mark Serreze (New Scientist 2008)
- “Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014” (USA Today 2009)
- “Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within 4 years” (Guardian 2012)
- “Say Goodbye to Arctic Summer Ice” (Live Science 2013)
- “Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist” (The Guardian 2013)
- “Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013” (Sierra Club 2013)
- “Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’” – Peter Wadhams (The Guardian 2016)
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ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT
CLAIMS that Arctic sea ice is disappearing are patently false.
THERE has been no trend in Arctic sea ice extent since the start of MASIE records in 2006.
via Real Climate Science :
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ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT TO DATE
ARCTIC sea-ice extent is within the 1981-2010 median :
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ARCTIC SEA-ICE VOLUME
ARCTIC sea ice volume has been trending upwards for the past twelve years.
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ARCTIC TEMPS and MELT CYCLES
ARCTIC temperatures and melt cycles correlate almost perfectly with ocean circulation cycles (AMO) driven by the sun, and show zero correlation with atmospheric CO2 levels :
Reykjavik, Iceland Temperatures Vs. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
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CONCLUSION
AN old Slovak proverb states, “The truth rises to the surface like oil on water.” So too, over time, has the truth been revealed as to the actual state of polar bears and the supposed “shrinking” Arctic.
THE mainstream media and climate scientists are aware of the underlying data on polar bears and the Arctic. They simply choose not to share the truth with you or any positive ‘Climate Change’ news, for that matter.
GOOD news climate stories would only spoil their “Climate Emergency” agenda that they have worked so hard to manufacture and maintain. Not to mention, would put in jeopardy a load of reputations, egos and money now at stake. The scam, it seems, is almost too big to fail.
AS for the polar bear, it is ours now! We own it as the symbol of a stable Arctic and a ClimateChange™️ agenda on life-support, becoming more hysterical by the day, under constant siege by ‘inconvenient’ scientific data and a litany of failed predictions.
•••
SEE also :
- DEATH OF A CLIMATE ICON : A Lesson For Researchers In Other Areas Who Have Failed To Stop The Invasion Of Politics Into Their Science | Climatism
- CLIMATE DUD-PREDICTIONS : ‘Ice-Free’ Arctic Prophesies By The ‘97% Consensus’ And Compliant Mainstream Media | Climatism
ORIGINS Of The ClimateChange™️ Scam :
- DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’ | Climatism
- HYSTERIA MEDS : Eleven Scientific Pills To Quell The ‘Climate Crisis’ Lie | Climatism
- CLIMATE’S FATAL FLAW : ‘Greenhouse Gases Simply Do Not Absorb Enough Heat To Cause Global Warming’ | Climatism
- UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity And The Environment | Climatism
- BASIC Science For Climate Scientists | Climatism
- GENESIS Of The Great Global Warming Hoax In One Minute And Ten Seconds | Climatism
- DR TIM BALL MUST READ : Environmentalism – Evidence Suggests It Was Always And Only About Achieving World Government | Climatism
- THE Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Scam | Climatism
- CLIMATE CHANGE : The Unsettled Science Of “Settled” Science | Climatism
- FATHER Of The 2°C Climate Target Admits Number Is Fabricated : ‘Two degrees is not a magical limit; it’s clearly a political goal’ | Climatism
- TIM FLANNERY – Professor of Dud Predictions and Climate Falsehoods | Climatism
- THE Mind-blowing Costs Of Global Warming Hysteria | Climatism
- THE Orwellian Era Of @NASA Climate Pseudoscience | Climatism
- WESTERN Nations, Driven By A Global Agenda Of Climate Alarmism, Are Destroying Their Industries With Carbon Taxes And Promotion Of Expensive, Intermittent Green Energy | Climatism
- TOMORROW’S Grim, Global, Green Dictatorship | Climatism
- CLIMATE CHANGE – The Most Massive Scientific Fraud In Human History | Climatism
- “In Searching For A New Enemy To Unite Us, We Came Up With The Threat Of Global Warming” | Climatism
- The Creator, Fabricator And Proponent Of Global Warming – Maurice Strong | Climatism
- Global Warming Is The Greatest And Most Successful Pseudoscientific Fraud In History | Climatism
- Sustainability is Malthusianism for the 21st Century | Climatism
- THE Climate Change Farce Explained By Two Expert “Scientists” | Climatism
- UN IPCC : Climate “Has Almost Nothing To Do With Environmental Policy.” | Climatism
- UN IPCC : “Long-Term Prediction of Future Climate States Is Not Possible.” | Climatism
- UN IPCC Rewrote Temperature History To Suit Their Political Agenda | Climatism
- 100% Of Climate Models Prove That 97% Of Climate Scientists Were Wrong! | Climatism
- YES! The Climate Changes | Climatism
- OUR Planet Has Enjoyed 10 Warm Periods During The Past 10,000 Years | Climatism
- THE ARCTIC : Ground Zero For Anthropogenic Hubris And Climate Change Hysteria | Climatism
•••
THE Climatism Tip Jar – Help Keep The Good Fight Alive!
(Climate sceptics/rationalists still waitin’ for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)
Help us to hit back against the bombardment of climate lies costing our communities, economies and livelihoods far, far too much.
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•••
CLIMATE’S FATAL FLAW : ‘Greenhouse Gases Simply Do Not Absorb Enough Heat To Cause Global Warming’
Posted: January 11, 2020 Filed under: Carbon Dioxide, Climate Change, Climatism, CO2, Empirical Evidence, Methane CH4 | Tags: Carbon Dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions, Climate Change, CO2, CO2 Fertilisation, CO2 Sensitivity, Global Warming, Methane, science, Science and Environment 10 Comments
“What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know,
it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.”
– Mark Twain
***
IF we lived in a sane world where logic, reason and cool heads prevailed over alarmism, sensationalism and hysteria, then basic CO2-science, as illustrated by ‘scientist’ Peter L. Ward, below, would steer us in a positive, less climate-divisive direction, preserving the integrity of science … and do a great deal to lower electricity bills along the way.
BUT, don’t hold your breath. ClimateChange™️ has morphed into a $1.5 TRILLION per year, or $4 BILLION per day business, according to a 2015 figure by Climate Change Business Journal. And, besides the lucrative and seemingly unlimited taxpayer funds available to feed-the-green-beast, far too many egos, jobs and reputations are now at stake for ClimateChange™️ to go anywhere soon.
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A must read for policy makers, the mainstream media and all those interested in the molecule at the centre of the Global Warming Climate Change debate – carbon dioxide…
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Via The Hill :
Mark Twain, in his inimitable way, is reputed to have quipped “what gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know, it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.”
Today, many climate scientists “know for sure” that observed global warming is caused by greenhouse-gas emissions. Many have worked tirelessly for decades, publishing thick summary reports, forging the appearance of a scientific consensus sufficient to convince political leaders to take action to prevent runaway global warming.
Such an agreement was reached in Paris on December 12, 2015. If greenhouse-gases are indeed the problem, their work will go down in history as heroic.
But science is not done by consensus, by popular vote, or by group think. As Michael Crichton put it: “In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.”
The drive to demonstrate scientific consensus over greenhouse-warming theory has had the unintended consequence of inhibiting genuine scientific debate about the ultimate cause of global warming.
Believers of “the consensus” argue that anyone not agreeing with them is uninformed, an idiot or being paid by nefarious companies. The last thing most climate scientists want to consider at this point, when they think they are finally winning the climate wars, is the possibility of some problem with the science of greenhouse-warming theory. Believe me, I have tried for several years to communicate the problem to numerous leading climate scientists.
New data and improved understanding now show that there is a fatal flaw in greenhouse-warming theory. Simply put: greenhouse gases do not absorb enough of the heat radiated by Earth to cause global warming.
Understanding this very surprising and rather blunt statement is much easier than you might think. It gets down to understanding why a traditional light bulb gives off a great deal of heat whereas a new LED light bulb producing the same amount of light remains quite cool.
Heat is what makes us feel warm. More formally, heat is thermal energy flowing spontaneously from a warmer body to a cooler body. Thermal energy is well observed at the molecular level to be the oscillation of all the bonds that hold matter together. The hotter the body of matter, the higher the frequencies of oscillation and the higher the amplitudes of oscillation at each frequency of oscillation. In this way, heat and the temperature that results from absorbing heat both consist of a very broad spectrum of all of these frequencies of oscillation.
A traditional light bulb uses a large amount of electricity to heat the tungsten filament to temperatures around 5500 degrees, causing the filament to glow white hot. This high temperature is required to produce visible white light. The glowing filament gives off a very broad spectrum of frequencies of radiation, however, that we perceive as heat. Only a very small number of the highest of these frequencies are useful as visible light.
A new LED light bulb, on the other hand, uses a very small amount of electricity to cause a diode to emit a very narrow range of frequencies within the spectrum of visible light. The LED radiates only visible light — it does not radiate heat.
The primary purpose of a light bulb is to provide visible light. To repeat, a traditional light bulb radiates heat, a small portion of which is visible light. An LED on the other hand, only radiates visible light, requiring much less electricity. This is why you can substantially reduce your electric bills by replacing traditional incandescent light bulbs with LED light bulbs.
How does this apply to greenhouse gases? Detailed laboratory studies of absorption of radiation show that carbon dioxide absorbs less than 16 percent of all the frequencies making up the heat radiated by Earth. Just like LEDs, this limited number of frequencies absorbed by carbon dioxide does not constitute heat. This limited number of frequencies cannot cause an absorbing body of matter to get much hotter because it contains only a very small part of the heat required to do so.
Current radiation theory and current climate models assume that all radiation is created equal—that all radiation is the same no matter the temperature of the radiating body. Current theory simply assumes that what changes is the amount of such generic radiation measured in watts per square meter.
Extensive observations of radiation emitted by matter at different temperatures, however, show us clearly that the physical properties of radiation, the frequencies and amplitudes of oscillation making up radiation, increase in value rapidly with increasing temperature of the radiating body.
Climate scientists argue that the thermal energy absorbed by greenhouse gases is re-radiated, causing warming of air, slowing cooling of Earth and even directly warming Earth. There simply is not enough heat involved in any of these proposed processes to have any significant effect on global warming. Greenhouse-warming theory “just ain’t so.”
Peter L. Ward worked 27 years with the United States Geological Survey. He was the chairman of the White House Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems during the Clinton administration. He’s published more than 50 scientific papers. He retired in 1998 but continues working to resolve several enigmatic observations related to climate change. His work is described in detail at WhyClimateChanges.com and in his book What Really Causes Global Warming? Greenhouse gases or ozone depletion? Follow him on Twitter at @yclimatechanges.
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CLIMATISM addendum :
IMPORTANT part of the climate debate ‘conveniently’ overlooked : The heat absorption ability of the CO2 molecule diminishes as concentration increases in the atmosphere. 90%+ of warming is achieved in the first 20ppm. Further rises make little difference.
CO2 Sensitivity
THE same applies with Methane (CH4).
https://twitter.com/JWSpry/status/1215887296244801537?s=20
•••
SEE also :
- INCONVENIENT : ‘The World Is Literally A Greener Place Than It Was Twenty Years Ago’ – NASA | Climatism
- THE Climate Control Knob | Climatism
- METHANE Mendacity : Cows, Farts And New Green Lies | Climatism
CO2 Related :
- SCIENTIST : Let’s Not Pollute Minds With Carbon Fears | Climatism
- THE Carbon Dioxide Word Game | Climatism
- CO2 In The Atmosphere Is Not Pollution | Climatism
- Bureaucratic Dioxide | Climatism
EXTREME WEATHER Related :
STATE Of The Climate Report :
TEMPERATURE Related :
- THE Great Global Warming “Pause” | Climatism
- GLOBAL Temperature Drops By 0.4°C In Three Years | Climatism
- PEER-REVIEWED SCIENCE : The Medieval Warm Period Was Indeed Global And Warmer Than Today | Climatism
ORIGINS Of The Global Warming Scam :
- DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’ | Climatism
- UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity And The Environment | Climatism
- BASIC Science For Climate Scientists | Climatism
- GENESIS Of The Great Global Warming Hoax In One Minute And Ten Seconds | Climatism
- DR TIM BALL MUST READ : Environmentalism – Evidence Suggests It Was Always And Only About Achieving World Government | Climatism
- THE Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Scam | Climatism
- CLIMATE CHANGE : The Unsettled Science Of “Settled” Science | Climatism
- FATHER Of The 2°C Climate Target Admits Number Is Fabricated : ‘Two degrees is not a magical limit; it’s clearly a political goal’ | Climatism
- TIM FLANNERY – Professor of Dud Predictions and Climate Falsehoods | Climatism
- THE Mind-blowing Costs Of Global Warming Hysteria | Climatism
- THE Orwellian Era Of @NASA Climate Pseudoscience | Climatism
- WESTERN Nations, Driven By A Global Agenda Of Climate Alarmism, Are Destroying Their Industries With Carbon Taxes And Promotion Of Expensive, Intermittent Green Energy | Climatism
- TOMORROW’S Grim, Global, Green Dictatorship | Climatism
- CLIMATE CHANGE – The Most Massive Scientific Fraud In Human History | Climatism
- “In Searching For A New Enemy To Unite Us, We Came Up With The Threat Of Global Warming” | Climatism
- The Creator, Fabricator And Proponent Of Global Warming – Maurice Strong | Climatism
- Global Warming Is The Greatest And Most Successful Pseudoscientific Fraud In History | Climatism
- Sustainability is Malthusianism for the 21st Century | Climatism
- THE Climate Change Farce Explained By Two Expert “Scientists” | Climatism
- UN IPCC : Climate “Has Almost Nothing To Do With Environmental Policy.” | Climatism
- UN IPCC : “Long-Term Prediction of Future Climate States Is Not Possible.” | Climatism
- UN IPCC Rewrote Temperature History To Suit Their Political Agenda | Climatism
- 100% Of Climate Models Prove That 97% Of Climate Scientists Were Wrong! | Climatism
- YES! The Climate Changes | Climatism
- OUR Planet Has Enjoyed 10 Warm Periods During The Past 10,000 Years | Climatism
- THE ARCTIC : Ground Zero For Anthropogenic Hubris And Climate Change Hysteria | Climatism
•••
THE Climatism Tip Jar – Pls Help Keep The Good Fight Alive!
(Climate sceptics/rationalists still waitin’ for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)
Help us to hit back against the bombardment of climate lies costing our communities, economies and livelihoods far, far too much.
Thanks to all those who have donated. Your support and faith in Climatism is highly motivating and greatly appreciated!
Citizen journalists can’t rely on mastheads, rather private donations and honest content. Every pledge helps!
Click link for more info…
Thank You! Jamie.
•••
SNOWFALL Will Signal The Death Of The Global Warming Cult
Posted: November 18, 2019 Filed under: Alarmism uncovered, Alarmist media, Climate Change, Climatism, Dud predictions, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Global Warming, Grand Solar Minimum, Polar Vortex, Snow Pack | Tags: Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change, Climate Change Alarmism, Climate science, Climatism, CSIRO, Dud Predictions, environment, Global Warming, Global Warming Hoax, Grand Solar Minimum, IPCC, Jet Stream, nature, Polar Vortex, snow, Snowpack, UN 14 Comments
SNOWFALL will become “A very rare and exciting event…
Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)
“Winters with strong frosts and lots of snow
like we had 20 years ago will no longer exist at our latitudes.”
– Professor Mojib Latif (2000)
“Good bye winter. Never again snow?” – Spiegel (2000)
“Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms” – IPCC (2001)
“End of Snow?” – NYTimes (2014)
***
WE all associate snowstorms with cold weather. But, the effects of snow on our climate and weather last long after the storm has passed. Due to snows reflective properties, its presence or absence influences patterns of heating and cooling over Earth’s surface more than any other single land surface feature.
Climate models from the 1970s have consistently predicted that CO2-induced global warming climate change should be causing a significant decline in total snow cover. However, Global snow cover has actually increased since at least the start of the record (Connolly et al, 2019), leading to some scepticism within the scientific community about the validity of the climate models.
In my humble opinion, the snow that keeps on falling, bolstered by the increased frequency and reliability of the solar-driven Polar Vortex, will be key determinants in the eventual and inevitable death of the Global Warming cult.
The public can touch, see and feel the white fluffy stuff that needs cold air to proliferate. And, being a substance that they can interact with, it makes it far harder to “disappear”.
They will then become overtly suspicious of the increasingly shrill “Hottest Year Evahh” cries, yelled at every heat wave by climate luvvies.
What does the science say, versus observed reality?
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WHAT THE ‘VAST BODY ‘ OF SCIENTIFIC ‘EXPERTS’ ASSURED US ABOUT SNOW
CRU :
IN 2000, climate expert Dr David Viner of the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU) assured us that :
Snowfall will become “A very rare and exciting event…
Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)
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U.N. IPCC :
IN 2001, the UN IPCC predicted diminished snowfalls as human CO2 increased, claiming that “milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms” due to the activities of mankindpersonkind…
THEY also forecast “warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change…”
warmer-winters-ipcc
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CSIRO :
A 2003 CSIRO report, part-funded by the ski industry, found that resorts could lose up to 40% of their snow by 2020 …
By 2020, the average annual duration of snow-cover decreases by between five and 48 days; maximum snow depths are reduced and tend to occur earlier in the year; and the total area covered in snow shrinks by 10-40%
CSIRO Research Publications Repository – Climate change impacts on snow in Victoria
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THE SCIENCE OF SNOWFALL WAS ‘SETTLED’ BY THE ‘97% CONSENSUS’
2000 : Prediction from Professor Mojib Latif of Germany’s GEOMAR Heimholtz Centre for Ocean Research…
“Winters with strong frosts and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will no longer exist at our latitudes.” – Professor Mojib Latif
2000 : Spiegel…
“Good bye winter. Never again snow?”
2004 : Mark Lynas told us…
“Snow has become so rare that when it does fall – often just for a few hours – everything grinds to a halt. In early 2003 a ‘mighty’ five-centimetre snowfall in southeast England caused such severe traffic jams that many motorists had to stay in their cars overnight. Today’s kids are missing out . . . Many of these changes are already underway, but have been accelerating over the last two decades. Termites have already moved into southern England. Garden centres are beginning to stock exotic sub-tropical species, which only a few years ago would have been killed off by winter…” – Mark Lynas
2005 : Christopher Krull, Black Forest Tourism Association / Spiegel…
Planning for a snowless future: “Our study is already showing that that there will be a much worse situation in 20 years.”
2005 : George Monbiot on climate change and snow…
Winter is no longer the great grey longing of my childhood. The freezes this country suffered in 1982 and 1963 are – unless the Gulf Stream stops – unlikely to recur. Our summers will be long and warm. Across most of the upper northern hemisphere, climate change, so far, has been kind to us…
2006 : Daniela Jacob of Max Planck Institute for Meterology, Hamburg…
“Yesterday’s snow… Because temperatures in the Alps are rising quickly, there will be more precipitation in many places. But because it will rain more often than it snows, this will be bad news for tourists. For many ski lifts this means the end of business.”
2006 : The Independent‘s somber editorial admonished us that the lack of snow was evidence of a “dangerous seasonal disorder”…
The countryside is looking rather peculiar this winter. It seems we have a number of unexpected guests for Christmas. Dragonflies, bumblebees and red admiral butterflies, which would normally be killed off by the frost, can still be seen in some parts of the country . . . Some might be tempted to welcome this late blossoming of the natural world as a delightful diversion from the bleakness of this time of year. But these fluctuations should be cause for concern because it is overwhelmingly likely that they are a consequence of global warming . . . all this is also evidence that global warming is occurring at a faster rate than many imagined…
2007 : BBC “One Planet Special”…
“It Seems the Winters of Our Youth are Unlikely to Return” presenter Richard Hollingham … speaks to climate scientists to get their views. Their conclusion? In the words of the BBC, they all give “predictions of warmer winters, for UK & the Northern Hemisphere”.
2007 : Schleswig Holstein NABU…
“Ice, snow, and frost will disappear, i.e. milder winters” … “Unusually warm winters without snow and ice are now being viewed by many as signs of climate change.”
2007 : Western Mail (Wales Online) … article, entititled “Snowless Winters Forecast for Wales as World Warms Up” quotes one of the global warming movement’s key figures, Sir John Houghton, former head of the IPCC and former head of the UK Met Office…
Former head of the Met Office Sir John Houghton, who is one of the UK’s leading authorities on climate change, said all the indicators suggest snowy winters will become increasingly rare He said, “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”
2007 : Die Zeit…
“First the snow disappears, and then winter.”
2008 : Another prediction…
A study of snowfall spanning 60 years has indicated that the Alps’s entire winter sports industry could grind to a halt through lack of snow. It found a dramatic “step-like” drop in snowfall at the end of the 1980s which has never recovered, New Scientist magazine reported…. In some years the amount that fell was 60 per cent lower than was typical in the early 1980s, said Christoph Marty, from the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research in Davos, who analysed the records. “I don’t believe we will see the kind of snow conditions we have experienced in past decades,” he said.
2012 :
Griffith associate professor Catherine Pickering says snow is rapidly disappearing because of global warming and by 2020 Australia may not have any left.
“We’ve predicted by 2020 to lose something like 60 per cent of the snow cover of the Australian Alps,” Professor Pickering, from the Griffith School of Environment, said.
“Unfortunately because our current emissions and our current rises in temperatures are at the high end of the predictions, it’s definitely coming to us sooner and faster.”
A low-pressure system will bring snow during Friday through Saturday, mostly above 1400m, but possibly reaching 1200m, followed by another cold surge and more snow during Sunday into Monday. All up we can expect 20-40cm across all resorts…
This season has already passed expectations… The latest reading from Spencer’s Creek a week ago was up at 228.8cm, which puts us well above average. But looking lower down at Deep Creek (1620m) and Three Mile Dam (1460m), snow depths are fairly average.
2014 : the global warming theory-obsessed New York Times touted “The End of Snow?”…
“The truth is, it is too late for all of that. Greening the ski industry is commendable, but it isn’t nearly enough. Nothing besides a national policy shift on how we create and consume energy will keep our mountains white in the winter — and slow global warming to a safe level.
This is no longer a scientific debate. It is scientific fact. The greatest fear of most climate scientists is continued complacency that leads to a series of natural climatic feedbacks…”
(Climatism bolds)
2017 : The Age’s resident global warming catastrophist Peter Hannam signalled the end of snow…
Australia’s ski resorts face the prospect of a long downhill run as a warming climate reduces snow depth, cover and duration. The industry’s ability to create artificial snow will also be challenged, scientists say.
Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope | The AGE
***
THE SNOW THEY TOLD YOU WOULD “DISAPPEAR” KEEPS ON FALLING
CONTRARY to dire ‘expert’ prognostications and climate models to the contrary, global snowfall continues to fall in abundance, aided by ‘record-breaking cold temperatures’…
UNITED STATES
Rochester shatters snowfall record on Veterans Day
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ALGERIA
*
FRANCE
*
IRAN
*
MALLORCA, SPAIN
What?
Snow in Mallorca?
A premature onset of winter was troubling millions of Spaniards . In the northern half of the country, large parts of the country were covered with a thick and large white blanket early in the morning after heavy snowfall during the night. Snowfall fell to 700 meters in some regions. More than 80 roads, including major highways and highways, were closed or were nearly impassable for normal cars, the media said, citing the authorities.
*
SWITZERLAND
SNOW ⋅ In Samedan in the Upper Engadine and in Santa Maria in the Münstertal, in November never so much snow has fallen as this year. The snow depth in the two Grisons municipalities was 77 and 71 centimetres respectively on Sunday afternoon.
*
GERMANY
H/t @Havenaar64
In Grisons, there was fresh snow up to 71 centimeters during the night on Sunday. That’s a record in November. It also snowed far into the lowlands.
In Grisons, there was fresh snow up to 71 centimeters during the night on Sunday. That’s a record in November. It also snowed far into the lowlands – Saas-Fee mit Auto nicht erreichbar – News Panorama: Vermischtes – tagesanzeiger.ch
*
AUSTRALIA
***
NH SNOW COVER – OCTOBER, 2019
The image is an animation of IMS Snow and Ice charts for NH, starting October 1 to November 12, 2019 in weekly increments. Note how the white area was sparce to begin and then grew from a weekly area of 9M km2 to 23.5M km2 through the month of October. As shown in the graph from Rutgers Global Snow Lab (GSL), the October 2019 monthly average of 22.3 M km2 is the fifth highest in their record.
nh-october2019-snow-cover
October 2019 was 4.7M km2 above the mean October area of 17.5 M km2. That ranks fifth out of 52 years; along with 2014 and 2016 making three of the highest snow cover years out of the last six! (OMG.) As Dr. Judah Cohen has observed, Siberian October coverage is a significant factor in forecasting coming winter conditions.
***
GLOBAL SNOW EXTENT
NB// Spring snowpack globally shows a decline across all global regions. But, if we are to identify “declining” snow as a result of mankind’s CO2 emissions, then two seasons are increasing snowpack, versus the other, indicating an overall increase per season.
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NH TOTAL SNOW MASS
Finnish Meteorological Institute data for total snow mass for the Northern Hemisphere, excluding the mountains, indicates snowpack has been consistently above the 30 year average (1982-2012) in both the 2018/19 season and even more significantly in the current 2019/20 season :
2018/19
FMI NH Snowpack 2018-19
2019/20
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ALARMIST U-TURN!
NOW, of course, climate ‘scientists’ are trying to dig themselves out of snow that’s kept falling …
Looking back at 65 years’ worth of statistics, Environment Canada’s senior climatologist David Phillips noted that since 1948, winter temperatures in the prairie regions have increased by an average of four degrees Celsius… Ironically, warmer weather can mean greater snowfall. “As we warm up, we may see more moisture, we may see more moist air masses, and therefore we could very well see more snow rather than less snow, because the air masses are going to be more moist and so therefore you’re going to be able to wring out more snow than you would be if it was dry air,” Phillips said.
*
UNFORTUNATELY for CO2-centric climatologists like David Phillips, attempting to ‘dig’ themselves out of their “end of snow” predictions, abundant snow requires cold air to proliferate …
“The reality is cooling, not warming, increases snowfall.”
“Interestingly, some scientists have stated that increasing snow is consistent with climate change because warmer air holds more moisture, more water vapor and this can result in more storms with heavy precipitation. The trick, of course, is having sufficient cold air to produce that snow. But note that 93% of the years with more than 60″ of snow in Boston were colder than average years. The reality is cooling, not warming, increases snowfall.”
– Veteran meteorologist Barry Burbank
***
RETURN OF THE ‘POLAR VORTEX’
NORTHERN Hemisphere winters have been particularly brutal over the past decade thanks to a climatic system known as the “Polar Vortex”.
The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding the Earth’s North and South poles. The term vortex refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air close to the poles (left globe). Often during winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the polar vortex will become less stable and expand, sending cold Arctic air southward over the United States with the jet stream (right globe). The polar vortex is nothing new – in fact, it’s thought that the term first appeared in an 1853 issue of E. Littell’s Living Age.
The science behind the polar vortex | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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THE Polar Vortex is a direct threat to anyone in its path, promising life-threatening low temperatures that can shatter records and plunge regions into a deep freeze.
DUE to its increased frequency over the past decade, the Polar Vortex not only threatens business and affected communities, but also directly threatens the climate ‘science’ cabal and sycophant mainstream media whose “Hottest Year Evahh” PR campaign is being drowned out by the increased frequency of abnormally cold and deadly, fall and winter conditions.
HOT = COLD! SHUT UP AND OBEY!!
FULLY aware that the ‘inconvenient’ Polar Vortex cannot be told to politely ‘go away’, climate scientists have decided to write off the generationally-cold conditions as a result of a ‘warming’ planet.
I kid you not …
The country is freezing in an unprecedented fashion, and global warming is to blame. Sound crazy? The cold snap that North America is experiencing east of the rocky mountains, with temperatures at Arctic-like levels, is real, but it’s only part of the story. Simultaneously, there are record warm temperatures happening in other parts of the world, from Australia to the actual Arctic.
While a small but vocal minority of people might use the faulty logic of, “it’s cold where I am, therefore global warming isn’t real,” even schoolchildren know that weather isn’t climate. But these extreme cold snaps have gotten more severe in recent years, due to a combination of global warming and a phenomenon you’ve likely heard of: the polar vortex. Here’s the science of how it works, and why global warming is paradoxically playing a major role in today’s record-low temperatures.
This Is Why Global Warming Is Responsible For Freezing Temperatures Across The U.S.
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NAT GEO
Some scientists think, though, that the frequency and intensity of these kinds of cold interludes may be changing as the planet warms, as counterintuitive as that might sound.
“This Arctic outbreak is connected to the behavior of the jet stream and the polar vortex,” says Judah Cohen, an atmospheric scientist at MIT. And those, in turn, are affected by a changing climate—mostly by intense warming in the high Arctic.
The topic is controversial in the atmospheric science community, but some think they see a connection between a warmer planet and cold blasts of weather like the one North America is experiencing right now.
Snow in Texas and ice in Alabama? Bizarre cold weather could become more common | Nat Geo
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MAINTREAM MEDIA COLLUSION
THE same cover-story was being run back in January 2019, to explain-away the Polar Vortex that was raging then …
WHY Chicago is so cold.
Global Warming might be to blame…
*
HISTORY DENIAL
FORTY years ago, the New York Times blamed the Polar Vortex on global cooling and increasing Arctic ice. Now they say the exact opposite – the Polar Vortex is caused by global warming and decreasing Arctic ice!
“A gradual increase in area of the northern circumpolar vortex, the massive flow of frigid air around the Arctic, has been recorded by Drs. Angell and Korshover.”
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SAME Polar Vortex during the 1970’s “Global Cooling” scare …
*
SCIENCE has known about the Polar Vortex for decades. But, because it contradicts the current ‘global warming’ theory, it’s conveniently forgotten …
Science Mag – 1975
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THE Polar Vortex used to be evidence of “Another Ice Age” setting in …
Another Ice Age?
Time Magazine Monday, Jun 24, 1974
Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds —the so-called circumpolar vortex
*
NOW the same Polar Vortex is evidence that the Earth is burning up …
*
***
CONCLUSION
ANY student of history can look back and discover that all of history’s mass-murdering socialists — from Hitler to Stalin to Mao — have manufactured audacious lies and scapegoats as a means to consolidate power into a malevolent Central Authority.
THE global warming climate change scare, with its draconian, green centrally planned agenda and underlying misanthropic ideology, is no different. A grandiose con used by globalist elites in their never-ending lust for power and control.
Freedom is Slavery.
War is Peace.
Ignorance is Strength.
Cooling is Warming.
•••
CLIMATISM Snow Series :
- BREAKING : ‘A Very Rare And Exciting Event’ To The Rescue | Climatism
- CLIMATE CRISIS AUSTRALIA : ‘2019 Is Officially Perisher’s Longest Ski Season In Memory’ | Climatism
- ‘END OF SNOW’ UPDATE : Natural Snow Depth In Australia The Highest In Two Decades | Climatism
- GLOBAL WARMING FAIL : Record Snow When You Were Assured By Climate ‘Scientists’ That There Would Be None | Climatism
- SNOW : Setting The Record Straight | Climatism
- LIFE Inside The Global Warming Bubble | Climatism
THE Sun Drives Climate/Weather And Determines The Polar Vortex :
- THE SUN : Climate Control Knob, Enemy Of The Climate Cult | Climatism
- THE SUN : Climate Changer, Climate Driver, Climate Disruptor | Climatism
- CLIMATE Change For Dummies | Climatism
SEE also :
- HYSTERIA MEDS : Eleven Scientific Pills To Quell The ‘Climate Crisis’ Lie | Climatism
- GENESIS Of The Great Global Warming Hoax In One Minute And Ten Seconds | Climatism
EXTREME WEATHER Related :
STATE Of The Climate Report :
TEMPERATURE Related :
- THE Great Global Warming “Pause” | Climatism
- GLOBAL Temperature Drops By 0.4°C In Three Years | Climatism
- PEER-REVIEWED SCIENCE : The Medieval Warm Period Was Indeed Global And Warmer Than Today | Climatism
ORIGINS Of The Global Warming Scam :
- DRACONIAN UN CLIMATE AGENDA EXPOSED : ‘Global Warming Fears Are A Tool For Political and Economic Change…It Has Nothing To Do With The Actual Climate’ | Climatism
- UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity And The Environment | Climatism
- BASIC Science For Climate Scientists | Climatism
- GENESIS Of The Great Global Warming Hoax In One Minute And Ten Seconds | Climatism
- DR TIM BALL MUST READ : Environmentalism – Evidence Suggests It Was Always And Only About Achieving World Government | Climatism
- THE Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Scam | Climatism
- CLIMATE CHANGE : The Unsettled Science Of “Settled” Science | Climatism
- FATHER Of The 2°C Climate Target Admits Number Is Fabricated : ‘Two degrees is not a magical limit; it’s clearly a political goal’ | Climatism
- TIM FLANNERY – Professor of Dud Predictions and Climate Falsehoods | Climatism
- THE Mind-blowing Costs Of Global Warming Hysteria | Climatism
- THE Orwellian Era Of @NASA Climate Pseudoscience | Climatism
- WESTERN Nations, Driven By A Global Agenda Of Climate Alarmism, Are Destroying Their Industries With Carbon Taxes And Promotion Of Expensive, Intermittent Green Energy | Climatism
- TOMORROW’S Grim, Global, Green Dictatorship | Climatism
- CLIMATE CHANGE – The Most Massive Scientific Fraud In Human History | Climatism
- “In Searching For A New Enemy To Unite Us, We Came Up With The Threat Of Global Warming” | Climatism
- The Creator, Fabricator And Proponent Of Global Warming – Maurice Strong | Climatism
- Global Warming Is The Greatest And Most Successful Pseudoscientific Fraud In History | Climatism
- Sustainability is Malthusianism for the 21st Century | Climatism
- THE Climate Change Farce Explained By Two Expert “Scientists” | Climatism
- UN IPCC : Climate “Has Almost Nothing To Do With Environmental Policy.” | Climatism
- UN IPCC : “Long-Term Prediction of Future Climate States Is Not Possible.” | Climatism
- UN IPCC Rewrote Temperature History To Suit Their Political Agenda | Climatism
- 100% Of Climate Models Prove That 97% Of Climate Scientists Were Wrong! | Climatism
- YES! The Climate Changes | Climatism
- OUR Planet Has Enjoyed 10 Warm Periods During The Past 10,000 Years | Climatism
- THE ARCTIC : Ground Zero For Anthropogenic Hubris And Climate Change Hysteria | Climatism
•••
THE Climatism Tip Jar – Pls Help Keep The Good Fight Alive!
(Climate sceptics/rationalists still waitin’ for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)
Help us to hit back against the bombardment of climate lies costing our communities, economies and livelihoods far, far too much.
Thanks to all those who have donated. Your support and faith in Climatism is highly motivating and greatly appreciated!
Citizen journalists can’t rely on mastheads, rather private donations and honest content. Every pledge helps!
Click link for more info…
Thank You! Jamie.
•••
DEAR Climate Change Alarmists, We Are Doing Just Fine Thanks, And So Is Our Sea-Ice! Regards, Polar Bears
Posted: March 27, 2019 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmist media, Alarmist Predictions, Arctic, Climatism, Dud predictions, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Polar Bears | Tags: Alarmism, arctic, Climate Change, Climate Change Alarmism, Climatism, Fake News, Global Warming, Mainstream media, mainstream media alarmism, Polar Bears, School Strike 4 Climate, science, Science and Environment, Sea Ice, Susan Crockford 6 Comments
POLAR BEARS – We Are Fine | CLIMATISM
“Inuit believe there are now so many bears that
public safety has become a major concern,”
– Nunavut’s polar bear population is unsafe,
government document says – The Globe and Mail
“Public safety concerns, combined with the effects of
polar bears on other species, suggest that
in many Nunavut communities, the polar bear
may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
– Nunavut’s polar bear population is unsafe,
government document says – The Globe and Mail
***
DIRE predictions of an “ice-free” Arctic have remained popular on the climate change fear-mongering circuit, owing to the psychological and political currency of all things melting and not least the emotional relevance applicable to the fate of the Arctic’s most famous resident and ‘global warming’ mascot – the polar bear.
SOME of the failed Arctic sea-ice predictions by alarmists ‘scientists’ and the fake news media over the years :
- “Arctic summers ice-free by 2013” (BBC 2007)
- “Could all Arctic ice be gone by 2012?” (AP 2007)
- “Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?”(National Geographic 2007)
- “Imagine yourself in a world five years from now, where there is no more ice over the Arctic” – Tim Flannery (2008)
- “North Pole could be ice-free in 2008” – Mark Serreze (New Scientist 2008)
- “Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014” (USA Today 2009)
- “Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within 4 years” (Guardian 2012)
- “Say Goodbye to Arctic Summer Ice” (Live Science 2013)
- “Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist” (The Guardian 2013)
- “Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013” (Sierra Club 2013)
- “Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’” – Peter Wadhams (The Guardian 2016)
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CURRENT STATE OF THE ARCTIC
MINIMUM sea-ice extent has been trending up over the past twelve years. The EXACT opposite of what the mainstream media and ‘97% experts’ have been telling you :
MINIMUM Arctic sea-ice volume has been rising, not declining, since 2007 :
@KiryeNet キリエ on Twitter : “The Arctic has been refreezing for 12 years…minimum sea ice volume has been rising since 2007”
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ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT TO DATE
ARCTIC sea-ice extent is very close to the 1981-2010 median :
*
ARCTIC TEMPS & MELT CYCLES
ARCTIC temperatures and melt cycles correlate almost perfectly with ocean circulation cycles (AMO), and show no correlation with atmospheric CO2 levels :
Reykjavik, Iceland Temperatures Vs. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
***
POLAR BEARS
*
NO other icon of ‘Global Warming’ epitomises its very own false narrative like the polar bear does for ‘Climate Change’.
WITH deadly irony, polar bear numbers have grown dramatically as carbon dioxide emissions have risen in lock-step. A CO2 correlation, at last!
INDIGENOUS Inuit’s of Northern Canada are now facing the very real task of having to cull the population as “the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
“Inuit believe there are now so many bears that public safety has become a major concern,”
“Public safety concerns, combined with the effects of polar bears on other species, suggest that in many Nunavut communities, the polar bear may have exceeded the co-existence threshold.”
Nunavut’s polar bear population is unsafe, government document says – The Globe and Mail
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POLAR BEAR POPULATION (1981 – 2015)
Polar Bear Population (1981 – 2015)
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POLAR BEAR POPULATION – THE LATEST COUNT!
via Susan Crockford PhD :
Susan Crockford is zoologist with more than 35 years experience, including published work on the Holocene history of Arctic animals. She is currently an adjunct professor at the University of Victoria, British Columbia.
Latest global polar bear abundance ‘best guess’ estimate is 39,000 (26,000-58,000)
It’s long past time for polar bear specialists to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate that will never be achieved and determine a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Since they have so far refused to do this, I have done it for them. My extrapolated estimate of 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible.
In 2014, the chairman of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) emailed me to say that their global population size number ‘has never been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand.’
In my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, I contend that this situation will probably never change, so it’s time to stop holding out for a scientifically accurate global estimate and generate a reasonable and credible ‘best guess’. Recent surveys from several critical polar bear subpopulations have given us the information necessary to do this.
These new numbers make it possible to extrapolate from ‘known’ to ‘unknown’ subpopulations within so-called ‘sea ice ecoregions’ (defined in 2007 by polar bear scientists at the US Geological Survey, see Amstrup et al. 2007), as shown below, to update old estimates and generate new ones for never-studied areas.
USGS – Polar Bear Ecoregions
Since the PBSG has so far refused to take this step, I took on the challenge. I contend that an estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. See the graph below from my new book:
Global polar bear population size estimates to 2018. From Chapter 10 of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened (Crockford 2019).
This new estimate for 2018 is a modest 4-6 fold increase over the 10,000 or so bears that existed in the 1960s and after 25 years, a credible increase over the estimate of 25,000 that the PBSG offered in 1993 (Wiig et al. 1995).
However, my new estimate is much larger than the improbable figure of about 26,000 (range 22,000-31,000) offered by PGSG biologists in 2015 (Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015). The scary question is this: what do Arctic residents do if there are actually as many as 58,000?
See my new book (Crockford 2019) for the full rationale and references used to arrive at this figure.
The bottom line: it is scientifically unacceptable for the PBSG to continue to refuse to provide an extrapolated ‘best guess’ global estimate for polar bears, given that the scientifically accurate estimate they crave is essentially unattainable. An estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. Read the rest of this entry »
COGNITIVE BIAS : Climate Change Alarmists Refuse To Accept ‘The Science’ That Proves Extreme Weather Events Are NOT Increasing
Posted: March 18, 2019 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmism uncovered, Alarmist media, Alarmist Predictions, BIG Government, Climate Alarmism, Climate History, Climatism, Cyclones, Empirical Evidence, Extreme Weather, Fact Check, Fake News, Fires, Floods, Government Grants/Funding, Green Agenda, Green New Deal, Hurricanes, IPCC, Propaganda, Pseudo-Science, Science, Sea Level Rise | Tags: Agitprop, Alarmism Exposed, Climate Change, Climate Change Alarmism, Climatism, Cognitive Bias, Cyclones, drought, Empirical Evidence, Extreme weather, floods, Fox News, Global Warming, Global Warming Alarmism, Hurricanes, Hysteria, IPCC, Mainstream media, Patrick Moore, propaganda, sea level rise, Tornadoes, UN, UN IPCC 3 Comments
“WHEN the heart rules the head,
passion takes over reason.”
– Ortega y Gasset
“IT would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
― Joseph Goebbels
***
THE widely held belief that ‘Extreme Weather’ has become worse, as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, is a tribute to the success of climate change propaganda pushed relentlessly by CO2-centric politicians and compliant mainstream media.
Promoting Extreme Weather is specifically designed to shift public opinion about the purported seriousness of human-induced global warming climate change, through the use of emotional imagery and dire prognostications in order for draconian and costly climate policy to be accepted and implemented with as little resistance as possible from the taxpaying public.
COGNITIVE BIAS fuelled by an era of mass hysteria, delusion, groupthink and panic has helped foster dark and far-fetched clichés of a current “climate crisis”, that is an “existential threat” which will “end civilisation by 2030”.
*
Thanks to the dramatic rise in personal weather recording devices – smart phones and CCTV – the sampling rate (what you see or hear directly) of Extreme Weather events, broadcast via social and mainstream media, has risen dramatically in recent years.
But, have actual Extreme Weather events increased in frequency or intensity? In particular, over long-term ‘climate’ scales?
The short answer is no! Extreme Weather events have not increased in frequency or intensity as carbon dioxide emissions have increased. In many cases the exact opposite is occurring.
This ‘inconvenient’ fact has been proven by empirical data and confirmed by the last two (warmist) U.N. IPCC reports on Extreme Weather: SREX (AR5) 2013 report and the latest SR15 report released August, 2018:
- SORRY ALARMISTS : The IPCC Once Again Reports Extreme Weather Events Have Not Increased | Climatism (SR15 2018)
- No steel roof required: IPCC dials back the fear of extreme weather | Climatism (SREX AR5 2013)
***
EXTREME WEATHER METRICS
DROUGHT
UN IPCC : “Low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale…likely to be trends in some regions of the world, including increases in drought in the Mediterranean and W Africa & decreases in droughts in central N America & NW Australia” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
GLOBAL TREND
*
NO historical trend in U.S. drought as CO₂ rises :
*
1934 : WHEN CO₂ WAS AT ‘SAFE’ LEVELS
IN 1934, when CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, severe to extreme drought covered around 80% of the entire U.S. Such conditions endured for most of the decade known as the “Dust Bowl” era :
*
400 PPM ‘DANGEROUS’ CO₂
CURRENT U.S. drought conditions with CO₂ at ‘dangerous’ levels (400PPM) :
*
CALIFORNIA’s “PERMANENT DROUGHT” UPDATE
THANKS to superstitious climate kiddies wagging school, in just 3 years, California went from 97% in drought to just 1% :
*
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, droughts in California lasted for 200 years :
***
FLOODS
“There is low confidence due to limited evidence, however, that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1049112217365315584
***
HEATWAVES
ACCORDING to the EPA, the low-CO2 1930s had (by far) the worst heatwaves in US history :
*
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe levels’, Adelaide’s temperature climbed above 100°F, six days in a row.
ADELAIDE – March, 1940 :
- Friday – 24°C (74.4F)
- Saturday – 24°C (75.7F)
- Sunday – 28°C (81.7F)
- Monday – 34°C (93.5F)
- Tuesday – 31°C (88.4F)
- Wednesday – 35°C (94.9F)
- Thursday – 40°C (103.9F)
- Friday – 42°C (107.7F)
- Saturday – 43°C (110.1F)
- Sunday – 42°C (108.3F)
- Monday – 42°C (107.9F)
- Tuesday – 40°C (103.6F)
13 Mar 1940 – RECORD MARCH HEAT WAVE. SIX CONSECUTIVE CENTURIES. – Trove
13 Mar 1940 – RECORD MARCH HEAT WAVE. SIX CONSECUTIVE CENTURIES. – Trove
RECORD MARCH HEAT WAVE : Six Consecutive Days Above 100°F | Climatism
***
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONES
“Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend
in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy”– UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
“There is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
*
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES
AUSTRALIAN tropical cyclones are declining in both intensity and frequency as CO₂ rises :
***
HURRICANES
GLOBAL Hurricanes are declining in both frequency and intensity as CO₂ increases :
*
*
CAT 3+ U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes (per decade) declining rapidly as CO₂ emissions rise :
*
FLORIDA Major Hurricane Strikes – Still No Trend :
***
TORNADOES
2018 was one of the least active US tornado years on record, despite record and rising CO₂ emissions.
AS of October, a new record low tornado count was set. The cumulative total for 2018 is 759; the previous lowest number of tornadoes for this date was 761. The SPC has records extending back 65 years.
This lack of tornadic storms in recent years should also correlate with lesser severe thunderstorm activity in general in the U.S., since the conditions which produce large hail and damaging winds are generally the same as are required for tornadoes (strong instability, plentiful moisture, and wind shear). – Roy Spencer PhD
NB// The US represents about 75 percent of the world’s recorded tornadoes.
*
*
THE frequency of strong to violent tornadoes is also decreasing :
*
*
THE trend is clearly down across the board. Yet why are no mainstream journalists curious about this?
NB// IPCC SR15 “Extreme Weather” report made no mention of Tornadoes. Nor, the mainstream media!
***
GLOBAL WEATHER DISASTERS / LOSSES
GLOBAL weather disasters/losses as a percentage of global GDP are declining as CO₂ emissions rise.
THROUGH 7 months of 2018 weather disasters as % GDP were on record (low) pace…
NB// LOSS data does not include the two big CAT4’s that struck the US in 2018 – Florence (Sep) and Michael (Oct).
***
CONCLUSION
BIAS BY OMISSION
IN my opinion, the worst form of propaganda is ‘bias by omission’ – information and facts that you are ‘not’ told about, in order to keep the truth from you.
THE mainstream media has not and will not report the facts on “Extreme Weather”, as clearly laid out in the science and data above, because such facts are obviously extremely ‘inconvenient’ to their “catastrophic” man-made global warming narrative.
*
VITAL information central to the potential seriousness of climate change – Extreme Weather – has been purposely omitted by the mainstream media and replaced by emotions, alarmism and exaggerations in order to fit the climate-calamity narrative designed to scare you into belief and obedience.
THIS is why the global warming climate change debate has become so dangerously deceptive and dishonest. Climate truths hidden from you and replaced with a narrative far more acceptable – Hollywood-style climate hysteria based on alarmism, increased sampling rates and overheated, CO2-centric climate models that do not accord with observed reality.
•••
UPDATE
DID not see either of these instructive graphs painted on a placards at any of the kiddie climate rallies last Friday. Guess they don’t fit their ‘catastrophic’ climate narrative…
Global Deaths from Climate and non-Climate Catastrophes, 1920-2018
Carbon Emissions and World Prosperity
*
PERHAPS the climate kids would have been wise to read and learn the words of H.L. Mencken, before being forced out by their parents and teachers to act as standard bearers of new radical eco-socialism, protected by ‘innocence’ and lack of age :
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.” – H.L. Mencken
•••
AUSTRALIA’s Hottest Summer? Maybe Not.
Posted: March 16, 2019 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmist media, Australia, BIG Government, Bureau Of Meterology, Climate Alarmism, Climate History, Eco-Activists, Empirical Evidence, Extreme Weather, Fact Check, Global Warming Zealots, Government Grants/Funding, Propaganda, Pseudo-Science, Uncategorized | Tags: Australia, Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change, Climate history, Climatism, Global Warming, Government grants, Hottest Summer Evahh, Mainstream media, Taxpayer Billions Leave a comment“FAR from this year being the record, the hottest summer was actually back in 1900. This summer only ranks 5th, behind 2017, 1902 and 2006.
THE summers of 1884 and 1901 are also close behind.
IN fact, the spate of hot summers recently look little different to those of the early 1900s.”
Walgett 1880 to 2019
EXCELLENT investigative work, again, by Mr. Paul Homewood.
THE precise job that the mainstream media should and must be doing in order to keep a check on government and its institutions.
BUT, just as our top ‘scientific’ organisations have been captured by environmental elites, so too have the majority-Leftist mainstream media.
AND, for the mainstream media – keeping “truth to power” in the area of the ‘environment’ would mean sanitising their man-made global warming narrative that they’ve invested so much political capital, ideology and personal ego into for decades. Not gonna happen!
ERGO, tough times indeed for “truth to power” to exist in the fashionable age of climate change virtue-signalling, driven by politics, propaganda, bureaucratic pseudoscience and trillions of dollars of taxpayers hard-earned.
By Paul Homewood
This made news a couple of weeks ago, but I have been waiting for full details from the BOM:
Australia has experienced its hottest summer on record, according to the nation’s Bureau of Meteorology.
Hundreds of individual heat records were shattered across the country over the past three months.
The warm weather, 2.14C above the long-term average, caused bushfires, blackouts and a rise in hospital admissions.
Wildlife also suffered, with reports of mass deaths of wild horses, native bats and fish.
“The real standout was just how widespread and prolonged each heatwave was – almost everywhere was affected,” climatologist Blair Trewin told the BBC.
Temperatures had exceeded the previous hottest summer in 2012-13 by nearly 1C, he added – “a very large margin for a national record”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-47410366
Naturally the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has blamed it on climate change. But is it quite as simple as…
View original post 460 more words
PANIC DENIED : Sea Levels In And Around Sydney Harbour 1886 to 2018
Posted: February 23, 2019 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmism uncovered, Alarmist media, Australia, Climatism, Empirical Evidence, Energy Poverty, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Sea Level Rise | Tags: Agitprop, Alarmism, Alarmism Exposed, Climate alarmism, Climate Change, Climate Change Alarmism, Climate Crisis Industry, Climate science, Climatism, Energy Poverty, Fact Check, Facts, Fuel Poverty, Global Warming, Global Warming Alarmism, Green New Deal, Greens, Insurance, Mainstream media, propaganda, Salt Bush Club, Science and Environment, sea level rise, Sea Levels, Sydney, Sydney Harbour 2 Comments
Sydney Harbour Sea Levels 1886-2018 | CLIMATISM
“CLIMATE alarmism is a gigantic fraud:
it only survives by suppressing dissent and by spending
tens of billions of dollars of public money
every year on pseudo-scientific propaganda.”
– Leo Goldstein
***
SEA-LEVEL RISE alarmism is just one in a long line of propaganda tools used by the Climate Crisis Industry to promote the narrative that human CO2 emissions are causing dangerous global warming climate change.
VERY little of the carefully orchestrated fear-mongering is based on observed reality and empirical evidence, rather, worst-case climate model scenarios pushed into the unaccountable future, designed to scare you and policy makers into (costly) “climate action now!”.
SEA level alarmism holds significant implications for the public who bear the burden of carbon-dioxide related taxes. Those living within coastal areas, constrained by further punitive imposts as insurance companies exploit the climate of fear for their own profit.
SEA levels vary by geographical region from positive to neutral to negative. Where positive sea-level ‘rise’ is concerned, the best science demonstrates that there is no immediate or long-term crisis in play. Importantly, no acceleration has been detected in the era of industrialisation.
*
VIV Forbes of the Carbon Sense Coalition is a member of the climate-realist think tank The Salt Bush Club – a group of famed ex-industry leaders and climate science experts fighting back against dangerous and costly climate alarmism with fact-based reports filled with reason and common sense. Not hyper-climate alarmism and climate-model based theory that underpins mainstream media climate reporting.
FROM their About page:
INTRODUCING THE SALTBUSH CLUB
Members, Skills and Concerns
“We have been listening to scare-mongers and panicky children for too long – it’s time to listen to sensible people and grown-ups.”
November 2018The Saltbush Club is an unplanned venture. Tapping a deep vein of public concern about the Paris climate agreement, it just grew. In about a month, with zero corporate or government support, a few lone individuals have attracted an imposing line-up of sensible people who are well informed on all aspects of the climate debate, and on the growing energy, water and infrastructure problems facing Australia. Many are only prepared to publicise their concern since they have been freed from corporate, academic or government restraints. They are now expressing long-held but often-suppressed opinions.
A much larger group of “Silent Members” have indicated support, but do not want their names made public because they fear that exposure would harm their prospects for employment, promotion or business. They will help, but silently.
All Saltbush members are concerned that climate-alarm policies promoted by most politicians are not based on sound science, and are already causing great damage to Australian industry, jobs and consumers.
Members include people with formal qualifications and experience in geology, physics, chemistry, meteorology, astronomy, climatology, spectroscopy, electromagnetic radiation, geophysics, geochemistry, land forms, sea levels, vulcanology, palynology, engineering, metallurgy, law, medicine, veterinary science, pharmacy, pathology, sociology, classics, economics, accounting, ecology, soil science, environmental science, carbon accounting, pollution control, mathematics, statistics, electronics, communications, computer science, modelling and forecasting. No longer can it be claimed that there is “no debate among scientists”.
***
They understand that the war on hydro-carbon fuels and grazing animals in Australia is not based on sound science, but is part of a broad international agenda designed to strengthen UN agencies, centralise decision making and weaken property rights with international rules and taxes.
They aim to change the climate of public opinion, thus changing the political agenda.
There is no consensus – it is time for a debate.
On behalf of the founders:
Jerry Ellis Chairman
Hugh Morgan
Jo Nova Media Director
Ian Plimer
Viv Forbes Executive DirectorSee a list of founding members here: https://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/saltbush-founding-members.pdf
*
Dr G M Derrick reports the simple facts on the state of sea-level rise around Sydney Harbour over the past 132 years of records.
THE information is what we should be receiving from our politicians and media. Instead the information we receive about climate change and sea-levels is filled with exaggeration, alarmism, ‘homogenisation’, and plenty of politics in order to drive a political agenda of climate catastrophe in order to justify costly fixes, schemes, scams and taxes.
THE big losers – empirically-based science, the simple truth and the taxpayer who is forced to pay billions upon billions for fake fixes (windmills, solar panels and carbon taxes) to a fake scam.
***
By Dr G M Derrick
Executive Summary
- There has been NO significant sea level rise in the harbour for the past 120 years, and what little there has been is about the height of a matchbox over a century.
- Along the northern beaches of Sydney, at Collaroy there has been no suggestion of any sea level rise there for the past 140 years. Casual observations from Bondi Beach 1875 to the present also suggest the same benign situation.
- A rush to judgement by local councils and State Governments by legislating harsh laws and building covenants along our coastlines now seems misplaced.
- The falsehoods and mendacity of the IPCC and climate alarmists should be rejected out of hand, and efforts be made to ensure that science, not propaganda, defines our school curricula in matters of climate and sea levels
Full article: https://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/sea-levels-sydney.pdf [PDF, 3 MB]
***
CLIMATISM SL SUPPORTS
SEA LEVELS
SEAS have risen 400 feet or 120,000 mm since the end of the last Ice Age, around 15,000-20,000 years ago :
*
SEA-LEVEL RISE ACCELERATION?
WHAT is pertinent to the sea-level rise debate is whether SLR is accelerating due to human CO2 emissions.
“Sea level has been rising for the last ten thousand years, since the last Ice Age…the question is whether sea level rise is accelerating owing to human caused emissions. It doesn’t look like there is any great acceleration, so far, of sea level rise associated with human warming. These predictions of alarming sea level rise depend on massive melting of the big continental glaciers — Greenland and Antarctica. The Antarctic ice sheet is actually growing. Greenland shows large multi-decadal variability. …. There is no evidence so far that humans are increasing sea level rise in any kind of a worrying way.” — Dr. Judith Curry, video interview published 9 August 2017
“Observed sea level rise over the last century has averaged about 8 inches, although local values may be substantially more or less based on local vertical land motion, land use, regional ocean circulations and tidal variations.“
(Climatism bolds)
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Projections for the 21st century | Climate Etc.
*
ACCORDING to “the science” there has been no stat-sig or relevant acceleration of sea-level rise since industrialisation :
*
SOMETHING other than carbon dioxide caused seas to rise, at the current steady rate, around 1790 :
(NB// 85% of man-made CO2 was emitted after 1945.)
*
NO ‘acceleration’ in sea-level rise exists in any NOAA or PSMSL tidal gauge records :
Relative Sea Level Trend
680-140 Sydney, Fort Denison 1 & 2, Australia
*
ONE third of all human (CO2) influence has occurred over the past 20-30 years which has not caused acceleration of sea-levels, a jot :
*
THOUGH not as ‘scientific’, it is interesting to use the visual point of Fort Denison to note the high-tide line and the notable absence of SL rise since 1885 to present :
***
COASTAL INSURANCE IMPLICATIONS
CLIMATE change hysteria and groupthink propaganda freely and uncritically spread by the compliant mainstream media has influenced local municipalities to wrongly and deceptively raise rates to cover “climate change” threats and damage as well insurance companies raising premiums. The result has been a devaluing of many coastal homes of up to 25% and the same increase in insurance premiums.
HERE’s an example of what the NSW Govt and Lake Macquarie Council are projecting for the 21st Century:
*
OVERHEATED, CO2-CENTRIC U.N. IPCC CLIMATE MODELS
THE very same modelled exaggeration alarmism is evident in the ensemble of U.N. IPCC CMIP5 climate models that basically act as evidence that drives the entire $2,000,000,000,000 US per year (2 Trillion) Climate Crisis Industry and associated climate policy settings that are sending Australian and other Western nations’ electricity prices through the roof, forcing businesses to close and/or move offshore and causing rampant energy poverty, hurting our most vulnerable.
*
IT’S OFFICIAL : South Australia Has The World’s Highest Power Prices!
(With the closure of the 1,550 MW Hazlewood power plant in Victoria, since this chart was produced, Victoria’s power prices are now nearing SA’s)
***
CONCLUSION
ENERGY poverty, rising insurance premiums, business closures, job losses and the highest electricity prices in the world is the grim reality of what life looks like under the totalitarian rule of the feel-good ‘Greens’. The zero-emissions zealots who want to force us backwards down the energy ladder to the days of human, animal and solar power.
JUST as socialist central planning failed miserably before it was replaced by free market economies, green central planning will have to be discarded before Australia and other Western nations, crippled by pseudoscientific climatology and the mad rush into costly and intermittent ‘green’ energy, will see a return to energy security, competitive pricing, business prosperity, job opportunities and a ‘liveable’ existence for our most vulnerable.
••• Read the rest of this entry »
JAPAN ACKNOWLEDGES THE GLOBAL WARMING ‘PAUSE’ : Sanctions 35 New Coal Power Plants Added To The 100 Currently Operational
Posted: February 22, 2019 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Climate science, Climategate, Climatism, CO2, Empirical Evidence, Failed Climate Models, Fossil Fuels, Global Temperature, Green New Deal, Satellite Data, State Of The Climate, The Pause | Tags: "The Pause", Climate Change, Climate science, Climategate, coal, Fossil Fuels, Fukushima, Global Temperature, Global Warming, Global Warming Hiatus, Green New Deal, HELE, Japan, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), JMA, Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, Satellite Data, Ultra-Supercritical Coal Power Plant, Vijay Jayaraj, warming pause 6 Comments
Sushi, Sake, and Coal: Japan’s Peculiar Response to the Climate Conundrum » BarbWire
“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming
at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”
– Kevin Trenberth, National Center For Atmospheric Research, USA (2009)
“Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the
tropical troposphere … This is just downright dangerous.”
– Peter Thorne, Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK (2007)
***
THE Japanese government has identified and acknowledged the current ~20 year-long global warming “pause” or “hiatus”. The (inconvenient) atmospheric phenomenon that has been the subject of much research and debate in peer-reviewed scientific journals for many years now.
BASED on data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the government has justified the expansion of its global-leading, ultra-supercritical HELE coal-fired power plant technology both domestically and abroad.
PRIME MINISTER Abe has sanctioned the addition of 35 new coal power plants to the 100 currently operational.
“Japan’s use of coal is not justified exclusively on the basis of the country’s nuclear debacle. The heart of the reason is Japan’s climate.
For the past three decades, there has been no significant warming in its major cities.”
*
CLIMATE Scientist Vijay Jayaraj reports (Climatism attachments, bolds added) :
Sushi, Sake, and Coal: Japan’s Peculiar Response to the Climate Conundrum
We all know that the Japanese love their sushi. Japan is also famous for sake, a rice wine unique to the country. Lately, the Japanese have shown unrestrained love for a commodity that is increasingly demonized by climate groups: coal.
Global warming alarmists blame coal for causing dangerous global warming. But the Japanese beg to differ. They have revived their love affair with coal. Why? That’s an interesting story.
Soon after the Fukushima nuclear incident, public sentiment towards nuclear energy became hostile. Many organizations, including foreign non-profits, called for the closure of nuclear plants on fears of future mishaps.
The Fukushima plant was outdated and less safe than Japan’s other, modern nuclear plants. Yet, the impact of the Fukushima disaster (in which no one died from radiation exposure) remains fresh in people’s minds, and the nation was not ready to defend the operations of other nuclear plants.
The Japanese government caved in to the pressure and closed many nuclear plants. By 27 March 2012, Japan had only one out of 54 nuclear reactors operating. As a result, the country was forced to seek alternative sources of energy generation.
The Japanese understood that renewable sources like wind and solar could not provide stable and affordable electricity, at least not in the magnitude necessary to meet peak energy demands of Japan’s power-guzzling cities.
The most economical and safe solution was coal. Contrary to popular belief and the mainstream media, coal is not as polluting as you might think.
Moreover, coal is a tried and tested source of energy, guaranteeing superior-quality, stable output to meet the energy demands of modern cities and industries.
With the development of “clean coal technology,” coal combustion now results in fewer contaminants and more energy, making it far superior to the combustion plants of previous decades.
So, Japan went against the tide and embraced coal with both arms.
It now employs the most advanced and safest coal combustion technology available on the planet, becoming a leading manufacturer and exporter of clean coal technology.
But Japan’s use of coal is not justified exclusively on the basis of the country’s nuclear debacle. The heart of the reason is Japan’s climate.
For the past three decades, there has been no significant warming in its major cities.
Data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) clearly indicates that there has been no significant deviation in the monthly average temperature between 1998 and 2018. The period between is of special importance to the Japanese government.
As per the climate doomsday theorists, temperatures should have displayed a strong warming trend as the manmade carbon dioxide emissions increased exponentially.
But the temperature levels failed to display any warming trend. That flies in the face of the notion that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration levels control temperature over the island nation—or, for that matter, the world.
Last week, Sapporo recorded its coldest day in 40 years. In fact, winter in Japan had no warming trend from 1986 to 2018, with the January monthly mean temperature anomalies displaying a cooling trend. If anything, there has been a cooling trend in Japan between 1998 and 2018.
So, the reason for Japanese embrace of coal is pretty clear: no significant warming, coupled with the post-Fukushima anti-nuclear hysteria.
No country would want to reduce its emissions when its monthly average temperatures are actually decreasing. It is for this reason that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe refuses to stay true to the hasty anti-coal commitments he made at the UN’s international climate summits.
Instead of discouraging the use of coal, Japan is increasing its dependency on coal. Abe has sanctioned the addition of 35 new coal power plants to the 100 currently operational. The country is also encouraging its Asian neighbors and other developing countries to purchase its clean coal technology.
The Japanese response to the anti-coal establishment, besides being bold, accurately reflects climate reality. Japan understands the need to prioritize the domestic energy needs over faulty, pseudo-scientific forecasts of climate doom.
The lack of warming, however, is not limited to Japan. Satellite temperature measurements (between 1979 and January 2019) show no significant warming in the earth’s atmosphere during the past 19 years.
Other countries should emulate Japan’s example, especially in the developing world. Domestic energy needs are far too important to be slain on the altar of global warming hysteria.
Sushi, Sake, and Coal: Japan’s Peculiar Response to the Climate Conundrum » BarbWire
Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England), is Research Associate for and Contributor for Developing Countries, for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation. He lives in Chennai, India.
REFRESHING to see government energy policy being driven by empirical evidence and real-world data, and NOT by fear, hysteria, mainstream media climate change advocacy and alarmism or politically-driven, CO2-centric, UN IPCC climate models.
BRAVO Japan for standing up to the climate groupthink bullies and misanthropic eco-activists. Instead, supporting their industry and citizens by providing them with cheap, abundant and clean (HELE) coal-fired power technology to advance and maintain their world-renowned pristine environment, civic cleanliness, health and wealth!
“The Japanese response to the anti-coal establishment, besides being bold, accurately reflects climate reality. Japan understands the need to prioritize the domestic energy needs over faulty, pseudo-scientific forecasts of climate doom.”
***
PIC of Kinkaku-ji Palace Kyoto from my recent family trip to ‘pristine’ HELE powered Japan!
IF you haven’t been to Japan – GO! Incredible people, culture and country…
Jamie Japan Trip – Kinkaku-ji Royal Palace Kyoto – Jan 2019 (iPhone 8 – No filter!)
•••
SEE also :
- THE Great Global Warming “Pause” | Climatism
- 100% Of Climate Models Prove that 97% of Climate Scientists Were Wrong! | Climatism (CMIP5 Climate Models)
- FATHER Of The 2°C Climate Target Admits Number Is Fabricated : ‘Two degrees is not a magical limit; it’s clearly a political goal’ | Climatism (UN IPCC)
- CLIMATE CHANGE : The Unsettled Science Of “Settled” Science | Climatism (ECS)
METHANE Mendacity : Cows, Farts And New Green Lies
Posted: February 20, 2019 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Carbon Dioxide, Climatism, CO2, Eco-Activists, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Fake News, Green Agenda, Green New Deal, Methane CH4 | Tags: agriculture, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Carbon Dioxide, carbon dioxide emissions, Climate Change, Climate science, CO2, Cows, Fact Check, Global Warming, Green New Deal, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, livestock, Methane, science, Steve Goddard, Tony Heller 1 Comment
Methane Mendacity – Climatism
“The only way to get our society to truly change is to
frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe.”
– emeritus professor Daniel Botkin
***
THE core objective of the $2,000,000,000,000 US per year (2 Trillion) Climate Crisis Industry has always been the centralised control of human beings and curtailment of free-market, capitalist ‘excesses’.
“Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.” – Maurice Strong, Rio Earth Summit 1992
ENERGY rationing and the control of carbon dioxide (the direct byproduct of cheap, abundant hydrocarbon energy) key to the socialist Left’s Malthusian and misanthropic agenda of depopulation and deindustrialisation respectively. A totalitarian ideology enforced through punitive emissions controls under the guise of “Saving The Planet”.
STANFORD University and The Royal Society’s resident global warming alarmist and population freak Paul R. Ehrlich spelled out in 1976 the Left’s anti-energy agenda that has underpinned all ‘climate’ related scares to date :
“Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the
equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun.”
– Prof Paul R. Ehrlich
*
MAURICE STRONG (UNEP)
THE creator, fabricator and proponent of global warming alarmism Maurice Strong, founded UNEP and ‘science’ arm, the UN IPCC, under the premise of studying only human (CO2) driven causes of climate change.
STRONG and the UN’s ‘Climate Change’ agenda was clearly laid out before the ‘science’ of Climate Change was butchered and tortured to fit the Global Warming narrative…
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsiblity to bring that about?” – Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
“Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.” – Maurice Strong, Rio Earth Summit
“It is the responsibility of each human being today to choose between the force of darkness and the force of light. We must therefore transform our attitudes, and adopt a renewed respect for the superior laws of Divine Nature.“ – Maurice Strong, first Secretary General of UNEP
*
THE DEMONISATION OF TRACE GAS & PLANT FOOD CARBON DIOXIDE
ABSOLUTE CONTROL OF YOU AND YOUR LIFESTYLE
ATMOSPHERIC Physicist, MIT Professor of Meteorology and former IPCC lead author Richard S. Lindzen, examines the politics and ideology behind the CO2-centricity that drives the man-made climate change agenda.
LINDZEN’S summary goes to the very heart of why Carbon Dioxide has become the centre-piece of the global push for draconian climate policy :
“For a lot of people including the bureaucracy in Government and the environmental movement, the issue is power. It’s hard to imagine a better leverage point than carbon dioxide to assume control over a society. It’s essential to the production of energy, it’s essential to breathing. If you demonise it and gain control over it, you so-to-speak, control everything. That’s attractive to people. It’s been openly stated for over forty years that one should try to use this issue for a variety of purposes, ranging from North/South redistribution, to energy independence, to God knows what…”
•••
“CO2 for different people has different attractions. After all, what is it? – it’s not a pollutant, it’s a product of every living creature’s breathing, it’s the product of all plant respiration, it is essential for plant life and photosynthesis, it’s a product of all industrial burning, it’s a product of driving – I mean, if you ever wanted a leverage point to control everything from exhalation to driving, this would be a dream. So it has a kind of fundamental attractiveness to bureaucratic mentality.”
*
THE GREEN NEW DEAL & THE METHANE LIE
BYE BYE RIB-EYE!
CHILD-SOCIALIST and freshly minted New York Democrat Socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s newly-released “Green New Deal” resolution has gotten a lot of attention for its 100 percent UNreliable-energy goal, but the bill also vaguely references another source of emissions.
THE resolution calls for a World War II-style mobilization effort to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural operations. If that’s the case, that means any subsequent “Green New Deal” legislation would have to deal with a major source of methane emissions — cow flatulence and burps.
*
METHANE MENDACITY
ONE of the standard alarmist claims is that Methane is 30 times more potent than CO2 at wrecking the climate, and that cow farts threaten the future of humanity.
Methane is responsible for nearly as much global warming as all other non-CO2 greenhouse gases put together. Methane is 23 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2. While atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have risen by about 31% since pre-industrial times, methane concentrations have more than doubled.
Thomas Friedman at the New York Times takes climate stupidity to a new level:
Methane released in the atmosphere contributes much more to climate change than CO2.
*
ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS 101
ACTUAL science calls ‘Bull’ (pardon the pun) on the relationship between Methane and the atmosphere, contradicting the widely circulated claims of a planetary Methane disaster prophesied by global warming alarmists.
METHANE’s absorption bands almost completely overlap with H2O, and methane concentrations in the atmosphere are very low. CH4 quickly oxidizes and disappears from the atmosphere, so there can never be a lot of methane in a warm atmosphere with a large concentration of O2.
Methane contributes almost nothing to Earth’s greenhouse effect.
The Methane Scam | Real Science
Methane is unstable and breaks down quickly in the atmosphere, and even if it doubled would have essentially no impact on the greenhouse effect. In the tropics, the effect would be an increase in downwelling longwave radiation of about 0.04%.
If everyone in Kansas City was an atmospheric molecule, only one of them would be methane. Anyone working on climate models and doesn’t know this, is driving under the influence of AGW stupidity.
ALL of the minimal absorption bands of methane are completely overlapped by water vapor. Methane has almost no effect on the Earth’s radiative energy balance.
*
CONCLUSION
TONY HELLER (aka Steve Goddard) sums up the Methane scam with the usual snarky flare that has earned him the reputation of a climate alarmists worst nightmare!
Grass absorbs CO2 and emits oxygen. Cows eat grass. The grass grows back, absorbing more CO2, and emitting more oxygen. Cows eat more grass. The grass grows back, absorbs more CO2 and emits more oxygen. If you look only at the front end of a cow, it is a carbon sink.
Our friends, being the horses asses that they are, look only at the back end of livestock. The amount of carbon coming out of an animal’s orifices is exactly equal to the amount that went in its mouth. Blaming cows for global warming is yet another example of the extreme stupidity of the flat-earth global warming religion.
*
DON’T give up on your BBQ and that juicy rib-eye just yet. Actual ‘science’ and the truth will eventually win out over alarmist rhetoric, fear and the scourge of socialism using the perceived threat of global warming climate change as emotional cover.
••• Read the rest of this entry »
CLIMATISM : 2019 State Of The Climate Report
Posted: January 17, 2019 Filed under: Antarctic, Arctic, Climatism, Empirical Evidence, Extreme Weather, Fact Check, Floods, food production, Global Temperature, Grand Solar Minimum, Great Barrier Reef, Hurricanes, Pacific Island Nations, Satellite Data, Sea Level Rise, Snow Pack, State Of The Climate, The Pause | Tags: antarctic, arctic, carbon dioxide emissions, climate, Climate Change, Climate science, Climatism, CO2, drought, Extreme weather, floods, food production, Global Warming, Grain crops, Grand Solar Minimum, Great Barrier Reef, Green New Deal, Kiribati, nature, Pacific Island Nations, Polar Bears, science, sea level rise, Sea Levels, snow, State Of The Climate, Tuvalu 10 Comments
CLIMATISM – 2019 State Of The Climate Report
CONTRARY to popular thinking and clever marketing, there is no “consensus” on the theory of dangerous man-made climate change. Too many variables exist within the climate system to allow for certainty of future scenarios.
THIS doesn’t deter the $2,000,000,000,000 US per year (2 Trillion) Climate Crisis Industry who manufacture catastrophic climate scenarios (pushed far enough into the distant future as to not be held accountable) with a guarantee of climate calamity unless their utopian ‘green’ dreams are realised.
BUOYED by their recent House Congress win in the 2018 mid-term elections, the hard-Left of the American Democrat party, led by pinup-socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have doubled-down on their pet global warming theory, proposing the radically-dystopian climate agenda, a Green New Deal.
ACCORDING to PJMedia, the Green New Deal will cost approximately $49.109 Trillion in the first ten years, enough to fund Trump’s border wall 8,616 times over.
FOR all the economic pain and social upheaval that inevitably ensues when draconian climate policy is enacted, it is only fair and reasonable for the taxpayer to ask one simple question about a climate which demands so much of their hard-earned money – “what is broken?”.
THE best way to answer this is to look at the current state of a set of common environmental metrics and analyse their relationship with carbon dioxide – the colourless, odourless, tasteless trace gas at the centre of the supposed “climate crisis”.
CLIMATE CHANGE METRICS
- ARCTIC
- ANTARCTIC
- EXTREME WEATHER (Heatwaves, Cyclones, Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Drought, Floods)
- SEA LEVELS
- SNOW
- POLAR BEARS
- WILDFIRES
- GLOBAL GREENING
- GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION
- GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
IN the interests of “cherry-picking”, there are a myriad of environmental metrics that make up the climate system. The examples cited for the purpose of this report are the more common associations picked up by the press and interest groups to facilitate climate change discussion and ‘debate’.
*THE empirical evidence featured in this post is taken from the latest data supplied by government scientific agencies and peer-reviewed studies. Hyper and direct links supplied per sample.
***
ARCTIC
STATE OF ARCTIC SEA-ICE : 2018 SUMMER MINIMUM
ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT (September 2018)
MINIMUM sea-ice extent has been trending up over the past decade. The EXACT opposite of what the press and ‘97% experts’ have been telling you :
*
ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT TO DATE
ARCTIC sea-ice extent is very close to the 1981-2010 median:
ARCTIC sea-ice extent is essentially unchanged since January 2006:
- *
ARCTIC SEA-ICE VOLUME
THE area of the Arctic covered with thick sea ice has greatly expanded over the past eleven years:
SO far this month, ice volume gain has seen a record high:
Jan Arctic Sea-Ice Volume gain historic
AND January 9 Arctic sea ice volume has been increasing for over a decade:
*Support data Via Real Climate Science
MINIMUM sea-ice volume has been rising since 2007:
@KiryeNet キリエ on Twitter : “The Arctic has been refreezing for 12 years…minimum sea ice volume has been rising since 2007”
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ARCTIC TEMPS
ARCTIC temperatures correlate almost perfectly with ocean circulation cycles, and show no correlation with atmospheric CO2 levels.
Reykjavik, Iceland Temperatures Vs. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
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ALARMIST MAINSTREAM MEDIA ARCTIC HYSTERIA
CLIMATE ‘experts’ describe these record large increases in ice as an unprecedented meltdown:
“Arctic meltdown” search
* Read the rest of this entry »
Climatism 
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