“The gap between observations and models persists. The observed trend deviated by as much as −0.17 °C per decade from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5; ref. 19) ensemble-mean projection1—a gap two to four times the observed trend.
The hiatus therefore continues to challenge climate science.”
– Nature Climate Change (PEER-REVIEWED STUDY)
“This paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.
That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.”
The “pause/hiatus” in Global Warming is now nearing 20 YEARS. This despite *record* man-made CO2 emitted over the same period.
Don’t be at all surprised if – CNN, BBC, ABC, CNBC, LATimes, NYTimes, WaPo, The Age, SMH and the rest of the “climate change” obsessed sycophant media don’t report this massively inconvenient climate news. – Too many reputations, jobs, govt grants and funding are now at stake.
The “uncertainty monster” strikes again
We’ve been highly critical for some time of the paper in summer 2015 by Karl et al. that claimed “the pause” or hiatus went away once “properly adjusted” ocean surface temperature data was applied to the global surface temperature dataset. Virtually everyone in the climate skeptic community considers Karl et al. little more than a sleight of hand.
No matter, this paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.
That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.
Also of note, see the offset as designated…
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The warmist Met office’s latest hadCRUT4 data shows global temps are back down to 1997 levels, closely matching sat temps. Therefore the extremely inconvenient “Pause” or “Hiatus” can now be tracked for a period going on 20 years, despite *record* CO2 emissions over the same period. Not at all what we were promised by experts. The scam is over. The theory is bust.
The increasing rate of the global mean surface temperature was reduced from 1998 to 2013, known as the global warming hiatus, or pause.
Researchers have devoted much effort to the understanding of the cause, reports Phys.org. The proposed mechanisms include the internal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, ocean heat uptake and redistribution, and many others.
However, scientists also want to understand the atmospheric footprint of the recent warming hiatus as the dynamical and physical processes remain unclear.
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“Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the
equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun.”
– Prof Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University
A “Settled Science” update via Andrew Bolt’s Blog :
I guess just the acknowledgement is progress, but I do think Matthew England at least owes an apology.
NICK MINCHIN: …Basically we’ve had a plateauing of temperature rise. I mean we are in a warming phase. The world is either warming or cooling. It never stops doing nothing. It’s either warming or cooling. We’ve had a warming phase since the end of the little ice age, 150 years ago. In terms of global average temperature it peaked 1998 and it is effectively stable now, despite the increase in CO2. So there is a major problem with the warmist argument because we have had rising CO2 but we haven’t had the commensurate rise in temperature that the IPCC predicted.
ANNA ROSE: That’s just not true, Nick…
MATTHEW ENGLAND: What Nick just said is actually not true. The IPCC projections of 1990 have borne out very accurately…
… we’re halfway through this projected period. And the warming to date is consistent with that [IPCC] projection.
And so anybody out there lying that the IPCC projections are overstatements or that the observations haven’t kept pace with the projections is completely offline with this. And so anybody out there lying that the IPCC projections are overstatements or that the observations haven’t kept pace with the projections is completely offline with this. The analysis is very clear that the IPCC projections are coming true.
The near two-decade long “pause” in rising average global surface temperatures was a “distraction” that did not change long-term model predictions of a much hotter world this century, according to new research.
Climate scientists at University of NSW said “natural variability” could explain the slowdown or “hiatus” despite strongly rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere…
Research leader Matthew England said … “It is simply due to decadal variability. Greenhouse gases will eventually overwhelm this natural fluctuation,” he said…
“Our research shows that while there may be short-term fluctuations … long-term warming of the planet is an inevitable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations,” he said.
“This much-hyped global warming slowdown is just a distraction to the task at hand”.
Maybe, maybe not. But this concession is interesting:
The paper also suggests that decadal climate oscillations were not pushing heat into the deep oceans, another explanation for the “missing heat” and absence of surface warming.
Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming.
via WattsUpWithThat :
…On the plus side, at least he acknowledges the existence of “the pause” now, but says it’s irrelevant. Whatever.
See also :
- Establishing Propaganda Is Vital For Climate Action | Climatism
- Satellites Confirm Global Warming (Standstill)! | Climatism
- Settled Science Update | Climatism
- No Underlying Global Temperature Increase For 20 Years | Climatism
- El Niño or ñot, the Pause lengthens again | Climatism
- Wrecking The Environment To Save It | Climatism