Atlantic Hurricane Numbers Decreasing Despite Increases In Atmospheric CO2

Rather inconvenient news for promulgators of CO2-induced Climate Change fear, doom and gloom…

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.thegwpf.com/atlantic-hurricane-numbers-decreasing-despite-increases-in-atmospheric-co2/

From GWPF:

Study of historical hurricane occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, during the period 1749 to 2012, reveals that “the hurricane number is actually decreasing in time.”

Paper Reviewed

Rojo-Garibaldi, B., Salas-de-León, D.A., Sánchez, N.L. and Monreal-Gómez, M.A. 2016. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and their relationship with sunspots. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics148: 48-52.

Although some climate alarmists contend that CO2-induced global warming will increase the number of hurricanes in the future, the search for such effect on Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone frequency has so far remained elusive. And with the recent publication of Rojo-Garibaldi et al. (2016), it looks like climate alarmists will have to keep on looking, or accept the likelihood that something other than CO2 is at the helm in moderating Atlantic hurricane frequency.

In their…

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Dr. Neil Frank: Hillary Clinton Is No Hurricane Expert—But I Am

A two-minute MUST READ.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Dr. Neil Frank, former Director, National Hurrricane Center 

As former Director of the National Hurricane Center (1974–1987), I was appalled when, in a campaign rally at Miami-Dade College October 11, Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said, “Hurricane Matthew was likely more destructive because of climate change.”

That is false.

We were extremely fortunate that Matthew—category 5 through much of the Caribbean—weakened to category 2 before landfall in South Carolina. It could have been much worse.

In 1893 a much stronger hurricane followed nearly the same track. When its eye reached the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, a 15–20 ft. storm surge inundated the coastal islands. Though population was a small fraction of today’s, between 2,000 and 3,000 died, making that the second deadliest hurricane in U.S. history. The same year another major hurricane killed 2,000 in Louisiana.

All together five hurricanes hit the U.S. in 1893, something that’s happened…

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Continued Hype and Deceit Drive Climate, Energy Agenda – Clobbering Poor Families

“No Real-World evidence supports a “dangerous manmade climate change” thesis. In fact, a moderately warmer planet with more atmospheric carbon dioxide would hugely benefit crop, forest and other plant growth, wildlife and humans – with no or minimal climate effect. A colder planet with less CO2 would punish them. And a chillier CO2-deprived planet with less reliable, less affordable energy (from massive wind, solar and biofuel projects) would threaten habitats, species, nutrition and the poorest among us.”

Such a simple yet overwhelmingly critical paragraph that eviscerates the supposed “global warming planetary crisis”.

As is this:

“It is clearly not climate change that threatens the poor. It is policies imposed in the name of preventing climate change that imperil poor, minority, blue-collar, farm and factory families.”

Read more of Paul Driessen’s common sense and reasoned argument that is so painfully devoid in the alarmist, schizophrenic world of “Climate Crisis Inc.”

Watts Up With That?

Hurricane Matthew has given climate change alarmists yet another excuse to rail against fossil use and demand a “fundamental transformation” of the US and world energy and economic systems. Reality simply does not support their claims or demands.

Guest opinion by Paul Driessen

Despite constant claims to the contrary, the issue is not whether greenhouse gas emissions affect Earth’s climate. The questions are whether those emissions are overwhelming the powerful natural forcesthat have always driven climate fluctuations, and whether humans are causing dangerous climate change.

No Real-World evidence supports a “dangerous manmade climate change” thesis. In fact, a moderately warmer planet with more atmospheric carbon dioxide would hugely benefit crop, forest and other plant growth, wildlife and humans – with no or minimal climate effect. A colder planet with less CO2 would punish them. And a chillier CO2-deprived planet with less reliable, less affordable energy (from massive wind, solar…

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IPCC, Government, and Insurance Enables Dangerous Behavior

Climate change alarmism is big business for ‘reinsurance’ billionaire Warren Buffett. But he doesn’t believe in it:

– Warren Buffett: “The public has the impression, because there has been so much talk about climate, that the events of the last ten years have been unusual…they haven’t!

– Warren Buffett: “We’ve been remarkably free of hurricanes in the last five years [Now eleven years or 4003 days]. If you’ve been writing hurricane insurance it’s been all profit.”

– Warren Buffett: “I love apocalyptic predictions, because … they probably do affect rates…”

– Warren Buffett: “we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That’s the only reason to build them.”

https://climatism.wordpress.com/2014/03/05/climate-change-alarmism-is-big-business-for-billionaire-buffett/

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INCONVENIENT facts on the “Extreme Weather” meme :

“Extreme Weather Is Not Getting Worse” – Dr Roger Pielke Jr

https://climatism.wordpress.com/2016/08/24/extreme-weather-is-not-getting-worse-dr-roger-pielke-jr-2/

Watts Up With That?

Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball

“An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” – Benjamin Franklin

The claims of increasing disasters presented as inevitable by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided opportunities for government interference and crony capitalism on a massive scale. Their actions ignored the realities and enabled unwise behavior by offering assistance and compensation if problems developed in areas where problems are well-known and inevitable.

The insurance industry is a major benefactor of this crony capitalism. They promoted the false IPCC claims on their web pages, sponsored documentaries, and did everything to exaggerate the threat. Look at the comments from the web page of Swiss Re.

Re/insurance plays an important role in managing climate and natural disaster risk, and that’s why it’s part of Swiss Re’s core business.

Managing climate and disaster risk is part of Swiss Re’s DNA.

Munich Re is a…

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Extreme Weather Is Not Getting Worse – Dr Roger Pielke Jr

Dear climate change alarmist media, politicians and the warming faithful,

*Extreme weather is NOT getting worse*

The inconvenient data laid out here on one the favoured weapons of mass climate hysteria – “Extreme Weather”, by climate change disaster expert – Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., a Professor in the Environmental Studies Program at the University of Colorado…

“Floods suck when they occur. The good news is U.S. flood damage is sharply down over 70 years,”

In a message aimed at climate activists and many in the media, Pielke cautioned:

“Remember, disasters can happen any time and they suck. But it is also good to understand long-term trends based on data, not hype.”

Pielke also pointed to the hard scientific data that shows other types of extreme weather are *not getting worse and may in fact be improving*.

“Is U.S. drought getting worse? No,” Pielke wrote

Read on for more hard scientific data that completely contradicts warming alarmist dogma that your CO2 emissions cause “extreme weather”…

NB, the next time you view, read or hear your favoured media hyperventilating over an ‘Extreme Weather’ event, remember that there weren’t as many smart phones last century, and keep in mind the old saying “if it bleeds, it leads.”

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/08/23/floods-are-not-increasing-dr-roger-pielke-jr-slams-global-warming-link-to-floods-extreme-weather-how-does-media-get-away-with-this/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ClimateDepot+%28Climate+Depot%29

From Climate Depot:

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., a Professor in the Environmental Studies Program at the University of Colorado and a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), slammed the linkage of global warming to the recent Louisiana floods and other types of extreme weather. (See: Bill Nye: Climate change is reason for Louisiana floods)

Pielke authored the 2014 book “The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change.”

“Flood disasters are sharply down. U.S. floods not increasing either,” Pielke Jr. declared on August 23. Pielke rebuked New York Times columnist Paul Krugman for linking floods to climate change. Krugman blamed “climate change” for ‘a proliferation of disasters like the one in Louisiana.’

“How does Krugman get away with this?” Pielke asked while showcasing this scientific graph.

“Floods suck when they occur. The good news is U.S. flood damage…

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Another blow to the ‘extreme weather is climate’ alarmism meme – Australian cyclone activity down

Mann made CO2 induced Extreme Weather reminder…

Watts Up With That?

We’ve mentioned many times the lack of major landfalling hurricanes on the USA being in a record drought. When the Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1st, 13 days from now, it will have been (barring a miracle storm) 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900.

hurrdrou0613[1]

Source: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.

We’ve also routinely talked about Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) being down. You can see the downtrends on the WUWT Extreme Weather Page.

Now Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has posted an updated graph (if you can call through 2011 “updated”) that shows a significant downtrend in all tropical storms, with no discernible trend for severe tropical cyclones. They write:

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Climate Change Alarmism Is Big Business For Billionaire Buffett

The only way to get our society to truly change is to
frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe
.”
– emeritus professor Daniel Botkin

Screen Shot 2014-03-05 at , March 5, 6.08.17 pm

Warren Buffett: “I love apocalyptic predictions, because … they probably do affect rates…”

•••

Warren Buffett on why Climate Change Alarmism means big business for his re-insurance business:

Interviewer: How has the latest rise of extreme weather events changed the calculus on Ajit Jain in reinsurance?

Warren Buffett: “The public has the impression, because there has been so much talk about climate, that the events of the last ten years have been unusual. …They haven’t. We’ve been remarkably free of hurricanes in the last five years. If you’ve been writing hurricane insurance it’s been all profit.”

Warren Buffett: “So far the effects of climate change, if any, have not affected… the insurance market. It has made no difference. I calculate the probabilities in terms of catastrophes no differently than a few years ago… that may change in ten years.”

Warren Buffett: “I love apocalyptic predictions, because … they probably do affect rates…”

Warren Buffett: “Writing US hurricane insurance has been very profitable in the last five or six years… now the rates have come down and we’re not writing much, if anything, on Hurricanes in the US at all. The biggest cat risk right now.. I think is earthquakes in New Zealand.”

See Full interview here »

H/t to Jo Nova

•••

Barack Obama likes Climate Change Alarmism too, because “Under my plan…electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket”


Obama: My Plan Makes Electricity Rates Skyrocket | Climatism

•••

EXTREME WEATHER FACTS and DATA :

No Major Atlantic Hurricane Strike For A Record 8 Years (category 3-5)  

Dr Roger Pielke Jr has updated his famous hurricane drought to the start of the 2014 season. Concluding that by June 2014 it would have been a record 3,142 days or 8.6 years since the US has been hit by a Cat 3 or greater hurricane.

The last such hurricane was Wilma on October 24th, 2005.

Hurricanes are actually getting not worse, but fewer.

229a8-daysbtcat3plus2014
Roger Pielke Jr.’s Blog: Graphs of the Day: Major US Hurricane Drought Continues

Data here.

The US good luck with respect to hurricane landfalls — yes, good luck — continues. The graph below shows total US hurricane landfalls 1900 through 2013.

uslandfalls1900to2013

The five-year period ending 2013 has seen 2 hurricane landfalls. That is a record low since 1900. Two other five-year periods have seen 3 landfalls (years ending in 1984 and 1994). Prior to 1970 the fewest landfalls over a five-year period was 6. From 1940 to 1957, every 5-year period had more than 10 hurricane landfalls (1904-1920 was almost as active).

The red line in the graph above shows a decrease in the number of US landfalls of more than 25% since (which given variability, may just be an artifact and not reflecting a secular change). There is no evidence to support more or more intense US hurricanesThe data actually suggests much the opposite.

If you are interested in a global perspective, Ryan Maue keeps excellent data. Here is his latest graph on global ACE (accumulated cyclone energy, an overall measure of storm intensity).

global_running_ace

To date 2013 is at 73% of the global average and the North Atlantic is at 30%. We’ll post up our updated data for global landfalls through 2013 before the end of the calendar year.

•••

On Extreme Weather Events – Roger Pielke Jr, December 10, 2012 :

…After adjusting for patterns of development, over the long term there is no climate change signal … of increasing damage from extreme events either globally or in particular regions.

worddisgdp

Roger Pielke Jr.’s Blog: Graph of the Day: Global Weather Disasters and GDP

•••

ATLANTIC hurricanes are actually getting not worse, but fewer. Grover Cleveland, who was president between 1885 and 1889, had 27 major hurricanes during his presidency. Only three major hurricanes have made landfall during Obama’s tenure thus far.

Obama HURRICANES

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

•••

Australian Tropical Cyclones are decreasing in frequency and Intensity :

Peer Review Study: Reconstructing tropical cyclone frequency using hydrogen isotope ratios of sedimentary n-alkanes in northern Queensland, Australia – ScienceDirect.com

Findings:

“This suggests that on average tropical cyclone frequency did not change during the past 200 years.”

BOM Tropical Cyclone trends are down with less frequency and severity:

tc-graph-1969-2012

Tropical Cyclone Trends – BoM

See also : Australia has lowest number of tropical cyclones in 1500 years? « JoNova

•••

2013 witnessed the slowest Tornado season on record in the United States

Screen Shot 2014-03-05 at , March 5, 6.32.57 pm

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph.png

•••

See also : 

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