HOTTEST Arctic Ever? Arctic Climate Change Fairytales vs. Reality

EXCELLENT piece by our friend and environmental scientist Vijay Jayaraj on the recent mass hysteria over the supposed “hottest day evah” in the Arctic.

Vijay’s piece, featured in Town Hall, demonstrates how the Climate Crisis Industry will latch on to any daily (hot) weather event in order to push their CAGW agenda yelling “GLOBAL WARMING” without any consideration for historical reference or indeed common sense…

“Those who count the Arctic warmth as evidence for global warming should count the Eurasian [cold] as evidence for global cooling”

Vijay Jayaraj
Vijay Jayaraj | Posted: Mar 06, 2018 12:01 AM

This week, social media and mainstream media were abuzz with news about the record Arctic heat and how we humans are destroying our planet through climate change.

While we brace for a barrage of climate doomsday news, here is the actual reality of climatic conditions at the Arctic and reasons why we are not in imminent danger.

On 26 February, temperatures in some regions of the Arctic hovered around the freezing point (zero degree Celsius)—a record high for this time of year in the satellite era temperature readings (which began in the late 1970s).

But the current rise in Arctic temperature is due not to changes in global average temperature but to changes in regional weather patterns. Changes in the weather system across the Scandinavian region are pushing very warm, moisture-laden Atlantic air into the Arctic and very cold Arctic air into Northern Eurasia, leading much of Europe into a deep freeze this week.

(Those who count the Arctic warmth as evidence for global warming should count the Eurasian code [cold] as evidence for global cooling.)

The same has been prevalent over North America this week, resulting in a colder than normal winter in some parts while temperatures soar towards the east coast.

To understand the sudden peak in arctic temperatures, it is critical to analyze two key elements associated with the Arctic climate: 1. past temperature trends, and 2. the historic variations of the sea ice cover in the Arctic.

Temperature records for the Arctic reveal that the current rise in temperature is not unusual.

The weighted Arctic (70–90oN) monthly surface air temperature anomalies (from HadCRUT4) show that average surface temperatures in the Arctic have not increased significantly since the 1930s.

Long-term (1880–2018) Arctic surface annual air temperature series from Nuuk, Greenland, show that the high temperatures in the recent years are not significantly higher than the previous 14 decades.

Climate alarmists argue that these high temperatures lead to extreme reduction in sea ice levels and upset the eco-system of the planet.

However, sea ice variations reveal a similar pattern to that of temperature—there has been no extreme reduction of sea ice in recent decades.

The latest studies on Arctic sea ice indicate that sea ice cover during the 20th century did not depart significantly from the record sea ice levels during the Little Ice Age (1600–1700 AD).

And understandably, the sea ice cover was at its 2000-year low during the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1200 AD) and during the Roman Warm Period (around 0 AD).

If one were to consider longer temperature data series, such as the entire Holocene (the warm climatic era that constitutes the last 11,700 years approximately), we have no reason to panic about sea ice cover.

Sea ice cover in the 20th century was at its highest ever (excluding the Little Ice Age of 16thcentury) in the last 11,000 years.

Solar activity, and not carbon dioxide, was found to be the main reason for changes in the historical sea ice variations.

The current sea ice loss is not extraordinary by any means, and the Arctic ecosystem survived through much lower ice cover extent in the past 2000 years.

Lying about sea ice and temperatures is not new for the climate alarmists, and their hypocrisy will surely reach new heights this spring.

Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England), Research Associate for Developing Countries for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, lives in Coimbatore, India.

Hottest Arctic Ever? Arctic Climate Change Fairytales vs. Reality – Vijay Jayaraj |Town Hall

(Climatism bolds)


MEANWHILE, as the climate mafia bloviates inside their WEATHER = CLIMATE bubble, the other conveniently forgotten pole, Antarctica, continues its long 40 year+ cooling trend, gaining ice mass despite record and rising CO2 levels and claims of The Hottest Years Evah

Screen Shot 2018-03-01 at 5.24.35 am.png

From the abstract:

Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact sea-level rise as climate changes, but recent rates have been uncertain. Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a−1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a−1.

Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses | Journal of Glaciology | Cambridge Core



“The role of the lowest solar cycle for at least a century is mostly ignored by believers in man-made global warming. There are signs of climate change, but not necessarily the kind they expect.” – Rog Tallbloke

Icy Europe, balmy North Pole: the world upside down | Tallbloke’s Talkshop


Related :

Climate Science related :


STATE of the Polar Bear Report 2017 shows Polar Bears are thriving

HAPPY international polar bear day!


My new report reveals that polar bears are doing well despite recent reductions in sea-ice. It shows in details why this is so, with summaries of critical recent research.

Press release and pdf below. And read my op-ed in the National Post here.

State of Polar Bear Report cover_12 Feb 2018 image with bottom

“In a new report published by London-based think tank, the Global Warming Policy Foundation, zoologist Susan Crockford says that predictions that climate change is bringing about the demise of these iconic creatures have proven to be far from the mark.

Dr Crockford’s report, published to mark International Polar Bear day, makes clear that although Arctic sea-ice has declined to levels not expected until 2050 and widely predicted to cause catastrophe for polar bears, their numbers have remained stable, or have even increased slightly. As she explains

“Ice levels during the key feeding period in Spring have been good, and prey species have been abundant. It’s not…

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20 New Papers Crush Claims Of A Man-Made Link To Arctic Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, Sea Ice


Via By on 8. February 2018 // NoTricksZone :

Anthropogenic Influence On Arctic Climate

‘Too Small To Be Detected’


Source: Haine, 2016

The evidence compiled in scientific papers continues to rapidly accumulate.

An anthropogenic signal in the regional Arctic climate is still too small to be detected.

Temperature, glacier melt, and sea ice changes are all well within the range of natural variation for the Arctic region.  The changes that do occur have identifiable origins that are unrelated to atmospheric CO2 concentrations or human emissions.

Below is a brief summary of some of the latest research that underscores the lack of connection between anthropogenic influences and climate-related changes in the Arctic.

Read the papers here…


Related :

Climatism Related :

FAILED Polar Bear Predictions Have Climate Change Community In A Panic

“A bit of reflection shows it was the climate science community itself — in collaboration with Arctic researchers and the media — who by the year 2000 (below left) set the polar bear up as an icon for catastrophic global warming. They made the polar bear a proxy for AGW.”

YET ANOTHER failed prediction from the catastrophic climate change cabal!

“This has left many folks unhappy about the toppling of this important global warming icon but ironically, consensus polar bear experts and climate scientists (and their supporters) were the ones who set up the polar bear as a proxy for AGW in the first place.”


Polar bear experts who falsely predicted that roughly 17,300 polar bearswould be dead by now (given sea ice conditions since 2007) have realized their failure has not only kicked their own credibility to the curb, it has taken with it the reputations of their climate change colleagues. This has left many folks unhappy about the toppling of this important global warming icon but ironically, consensus polar bear experts and climate scientists (and their supporters) were the ones who set up the polar bear as a proxy for AGW in the first place.

Cover image_Twenty Reasons_polarbearscience

I published my professional criticisms on the failed predictions of the polar bear conservation community in a professional online scientific preprint journal, which has now been downloaded almost 2,000 times (Crockford 2017; Crockford and Geist 2017).

Crockford 2017_Slide 12 screencap

My paper demonstrates that the polar bear/seaice decline hypothesis, particularly the one developed by Steven Amstrup, is a failure. I’m not…

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ARCTIC SEA ICE — Ice Traps Narwhals

“The pity is that Alarmist media cannot seem to educate the public, and doesn’t do a little reading-up on the subject, but rather seems determined to horrify. Horror is not helpful, unless your intent is to herd people with a sort of bullying. To paraphrase FDR, in truth we have nothing to be horrified about but horror itself.”

A truly glorious read on the wonders of the Arctic wilderness and its wildlife, to the not so wondrous world of the politicisation of climate ‘science’…

Thanks Caleb!

Sunrise's Swansong

One thing that has fascinated me, in my study of sea-ice, is how swiftly vast areas can freeze over. This is apparent from many sources.

The captains of whaling ships, tempted north by whale’s habit of hunting in the rich ecosystem that exists at the very edge of the ice, sometimes appear like cowards for turning tail and fleeing the refreeze far before the whales chose to depart. (You might think whales would know best when to depart, for they suffocate when trapped under ice). However this choice does not seem so foolish once you understand larger whales could break up through a foot of ice, (with smaller beluga whales following and using the air-holes big whales created), while, without a strong following wind, a sailing craft could be bogged down and halted by a skim of ice only an inch thick. And despite all precautions, the ice formed so…

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Bioscience article is academic rape: an assertion of power and intimidation

“Blasphemy is what an old dogma screams at a new truth.” — Robert G. Ingersoll


Characterizing a professional, respected scientist as an unqualified vengeful opinion writer is the same kind of power attack as rape. It’s meant to humiliate and intimidate.


I said this as part of a response to a comment at WUWT late yesterday (copied in full below). The picture above shows Steven Amstrup holding polar bear cubs against their will — not for any scientific purpose, just for a photo that shows he can.

Also yesterday, Tom Fuller at ClimateScepticism wrote a hard-hitting critique of the Bioscience article that similarly noted the sexist nature of this harassment and the fact that this is the way Michael Mann and his colleagues behave toward female scientists who cross them or their supporters. He concludes:

“The purpose of these papers is not to communicate.

It is to excommunicate.”

As I said when this paper first came out, this response is all about my reasoned and…

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Polar bears refused to die as predicted and this is how the propheseers respond

Belief and “Denial” are the words of zealots, not scientists.

The fact that you have taken on the climate establishment and criticized their failed doomsday theories, with regards to their favourite catastrophe mascot – the cuddly polar bear – “with supporting evidence is precisely why these “leading researchers” feel so threatened and why the paper had to be written.”

It is not surprising that you are being targeted by serial smear merchants like Michael E Mann et al. How dare anyone question their religion and threaten its veracity with solid data and evidence?!

You’ve hurt them and their melting credibility even more with your excellent, objective, data-driven science. Well done Susan!

The truth really does hurt.


The polar bear experts who predicted tens of thousands of polar bearswould be dead by now (given the ice conditions since 2007) have found my well-documented criticisms of their failed prophesies have caused them to loose face and credibility with the public.

Fig 3 Sea ice prediction vs reality 2012 Predicted sea ice changes (based on 2004 data) at 2020, 2050, and 2080 that were used in 2007 to predict a 67% decline in global polar bear numbers vs. an example of the sea ice extent reality experienced since 2007 (shown is 2012). See Crockford 2017 for details.

Although the gullible mediastill pretends to believe the doomsday stories offered by these researchers, the polar bear has fallen as a useful icon for those trying to sell a looming global warming catastrophe to the public.

Here’s what happened: I published my professional criticisms on the failed predictions of the polar bear conservation community in a professional online…

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