OPEN Letter To The Bureau Of Meteorology – Tropical Cyclone Trends

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Graph showing the number of severe and non-severe tropical cyclones from 1970–2011 which have occurred in the Australian region. Severe tropical cyclones are those which show a minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa.

Dear BoM,

I have been a keen observer of weather and climate for well over a climate point (42 years)!

The chaotic system of climate and “climate change” is ever fascinating. Though, today the ‘chaos’ has been replaced by an unhealthy polarization of “the science”, all too often determined by belief, politics and ideology. Sadly, dogma has trumped empirical evidence, corrupting the scientific method.

That said, I am seeking from you an updated version of the cyclone trends graph which ends at 2011. The BoM site has excellent data up to 2017 to complete the series. Is there a reason why the data has not been translated to the current graph? I would be happy to work on getting it up to date if resources are limited!

As a start, there is a written record from 2012-2015 here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/index.shtml

However, this record does not quite match the said graph 1969 – 2011. Methodology for what qualifies the graphed record would be appreciated.

Sincerely,

Jamie Spry (Melbourne, Australia)

 


THE “Blizzard Of Oz” That Wasn’t Meant To Be

Blizzard of Oz.jpg

Australian snowfields rejoice after ‘Blizzard of Oz’ turns slopes into winter wonderland

via ABC.net.au

It’s been dubbed “the Blizzard of Oz”, and powder hounds could not be happier.

Australia’s ski resorts in the Snowy Mountains, in New South Wales, and Victoria’s Alpine National Park were covered with the white stuff this morning after both reported the best falls of the season at the weekend.

More than 1.15 metres of snow has been dumped at Thredbo from Friday morning to 6:00am today.

Blizzard of Oz1.jpgPHOTO: More than 1.15 metres of snow has been dumped at Thredbo. (Instagram: @_carlyt) Blizzard of Oz2.jpg

PHOTO: Mt Hotham, in Victoria’s Alpine National Park, looked more like Europe at the weekend. (Instagram: @sarahwhite2017)Blizzard of Oz3.jpgPHOTO: The snow at Falls Creek. (Instagram: @fallscreek)

Australian snowfields rejoice after ‘Blizzard of Oz’ turns slopes into winter wonderland – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
•••

BUT, wasn’t ‘snowfall’ meant to be “a very rare and exciting event.” And, that “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” ?

Those expert predictions made back in 2000 by esteemed climatologist Dr David Viner of the UK’s CRU (Climate Research Unit):

From the Independent’s most cited article: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past” by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

THE Independent has since removed the article! The page used to look like this:

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The original article:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past-original

Link now boots back to their homepage.

Our friends at WUWT have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – The Independent (PDF)

In fairness, perhaps the good Dr Viner was colluding consulting with the virtuous partners of climate catastrophe expertise – the UN IPCC who, as well, predicted diminished snowfalls as human CO2 increased…

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IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001 – Complete online versions | GRID-Arendal – Publications – Other

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IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Australia’s “premier” scientific government organisation, the (warmist) CSIRO, jumped on the “end of snow” bandwagon in August 2003:

Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths.  At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/73212/TheImpactofClimateChangeonSnowConditions2003.pdf 

(Page Not Found – LOL !)

In 2014, the New York Times signalled “The End of Snow”:ScreenHunter_314 Feb. 07 11.00

The End of Snow? – NYTimes.com

•••

BACK IN THE REAL WORLD

Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent is trending upwards, and 2017 was amongst the highest on record, despite rising CO2 emissions and the “Hottest Year Evah” thing:

Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at , August 7, 4.07.56 PM

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

AND as for the expert predictions of the CSIRO, who assured us of the end of snow by 2020/2030…

Australia’s snowfields have been overdosed by snow over the past decade.

In fact, SH snow extent is increasing as global CO2 rises – the exact opposite of what you were told by all those experts

2016 – Extended season:

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Heavy snow forecast for the Australian Alps despite ski season ending a month ago

2017 – THE “Blizzard Of Oz” ! :

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Blizzards close in on Melbourne, floods hit South Australia | The Australian

WHEN will those expert scientists, esteemed government agencies and respected mainstream media outlets who peddle the fake global warming catastrophe, spreading scientific falsehoods with impunity, be held to account? Or at least admit they got it wrong?

That “science” certainly ain’t “settled”.

•••

UPDATE – August 8, 2017

Emergency services warn of avalanches in Victoria’s alpine region

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at , August 8, 8.45.01 AM.png

Click to Play…

EMERGENCY services have issued an avalanche warning for Victoria’s alpine region as tourists have been urged to avoid skiing, snowboarding, or hiking in remote areas.

Warmer weather and strong wind is expected to increase the risk of avalanches at Mt Bogong, mt feathertop, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Falls Creek today.

Victorian alpine region: avalanche warning issued for skiers, snowboarders | Herald Sun

DO hope SMH’s (Fairfax media) resident global warming catastrophist Peter Hannam has received this alert, if he plans to visit Australia’s ski fields. The one’s that he and those expert scientists say won’t be around much longer thanks to you and your SUV…

Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope

Peter Hannam Peter Hannam

August 5 – Last week’s fake news – Sydney Morning Herald

Australia’s ski resorts face the prospect of a long downhill run as a warming climate reduces snow depth, cover and duration. The industry’s ability to create artificial snow will also be challenged, scientists say.

Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope

•••

 

Related :

CSIRO Dud-Predictions Related :

 


Power Prices Skyrocket

Turnbull (Australian “conservative” PM) green policies make energy unaffordable…

Australian Climate Madness

Turnbull policies make energy unaffordable

Who cares that fewer and fewer people in Australia can afford this most basic necessity? At least we’re saving the planet, right?

Actually no, since nothing Australia does makes any difference to the global climate. It just appeases the idiotic Green/Left activists, while India and China burn cheap coal to their hearts’ content.

The Australianhighlights ($) the continuing price rises for electricity and gas:

About three-quarters of households and businesses on the east coast and South Australia face substantial increases in power bills from next month, after Origin Energy announced price rises for electricity and gas.

Origin, the biggest of the three major generators and retailers, confirmed the pressure on wholesale prices from a historic lack of investment in new baseload generation capacity. AGL Energy and EnergyAustralia also announced price rises in recent days.

NSW, which came close to blackouts amid soaring temperatures in…

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Finkel’s Fantasyland: Report to ‘Save’ Australia’s Power Grid From Renewables Chaos a Death Sentence for Business

“And here’s a very important warning: beware modellers who tell you that, in the best-case scenario, electricity prices could actually fall. Tell that to the householders who face power price rises of between 20 and 30 per cent in parts of Australia.”

Garbage in, garbage out is the key reason to distrust the modelling, as well as the riding instructions given to compliant modellers. They are happy to adjust assumptions, often in hidden ways, to achieve the desired result…”

Sounds a lot like the overheated UN CMIP5 climate models – 102 ensembles which have failed dismally to model observed reality with regard to the current global warming “pause”. That ever inconvenient warming “hiatus” now nearing two decades despite record “CO2” emissions over the same period!

STOP THESE THINGS

Oh, and you’ll find grid-scale battery storage right over here.

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In yesterday’s post we described Alan Finkel’s report on Australia’s power market fiasco as a mixture of Lewis Carroll’s ‘Through the Looking-Glass’ – residing in a place where the fundamentals of physics and economics, logic and reason are playfully and permanently suspended – and Goldilocks – the story about an infantile quest to make sure everything the heart desires is ‘just right’ – another lovable, childish fantasy.

After the report was released, commentators and barrackers set to work attempting to find something resembling common sense amongst its musings.

Alas, the report’s recommendations (available here), were they to be implemented, would guarantee the destruction of what remains of Australia’s reliable and affordable power supplies, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than is already guaranteed under the Large-Scale RET. South Australia has already been written-off; Finkel uses it as ‘case…

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Former PM – John Howard Calls Australia’s Renewables Policy a ‘National Scandal’

“The disastrous energy policies that have been put in place since John Howard dipped our toes into the renewable con at the end of the last century is now bearing fruit with major closures of the unsubsidised plant bringing about contract prices now well above $100 per MWh, two to three times their average level 1999-2015.”

2% renewable (unreliable) energy target, as Howard originally promoted, is still a gross waste of other people’s (taxpayers) money, induced by climate virtue-signalling, based on fake global warming scares and confected eco-hysteria.

STOP THESE THINGS

John Howard: Elder Statesman calls subsidy scam a National scandal.

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John Howard was seen by many as the underdog of Australian conservative politics, who took more than two decades as a Federal MP to reach the position of Prime Minister, the victim of bitter internal political wrangling and intrigue within the Liberal Party.

After he was deposed as Liberal opposition leader by Andrew Peacock in a leadership coup in May 1989, Howard likened his chances of ever leading the Liberals again as that of “Lazarus with a triple bypass”.

Clearly the beneficiary of some cardiac miracle, John Howard became Australia’s 25th Prime Minister on 11 March 1996 and kept that post for over 11 years, until 3 December 2007, making him Australia’s second longest serving PM after Bob Menzies.

While Howard, as with any politician, had his critics, no one could question his devotion to principle and efforts…

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Falling Sea Level: The Critical Factor in 2016 Great Barrier Reef Bleaching!

“shallow coral were increasingly vulnerable to deadly desiccation during more extreme sea level drops when warm waters slosh toward the Americas during an El Niño.”

A must read to educate and prevent further misleading great barrier reef hysteria and subsequent ad-hoc and misguided Coral conservation policies…

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Jim Steele

Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism

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It is puzzling why the recent 2017 publication in Nature, Global Warming And Recurrent Mass Bleaching Of Corals by Hughes et al. ignored the most critical factor affecting the 2016 severe bleaching along the northern Great Barrier Reef – the regional fall in sea level amplified by El Niño. Instead Hughes 2017 suggested the extensive bleaching was due to increased water temperatures induced by CO2 warming.

In contrast in Coral Mortality Induced by the 2015–2016 El-Niño in Indonesia: The Effect Of Rapid Sea Level Fall by Ampou 2017, Indonesian biologists had reportedthat a drop in sea level had bleached the upper 15 cm of the reefs before temperatures had reached NOAA’ Coral Reef Watch’s bleaching thresholds. As discussed by Ampou 2017, the…

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Green Bans “Deindustrialising” Australia

“To underline this insanity, there is actually little evidence of dangerous man-made warming, and even less evidence that anything Australia does to its emissions will make the slightest discernible difference. Nor is there the slightest evidence of real risk from gas fracking, let alone on conventional on-shore gas drilling.

These are fake scares creating huge damage. Once again, the scaremongering is more dangerous than the scare.”

A very important read for the health, wealth and prosperity, not only for Australian society and its environment, but a lesson for the entire world.

This green energy, virtue-signalling insanity must stop.

And to think China and India are opening a new coal-fired power station every week, with thousands in the pipeline. Germany, as well, reverting back to coal after its disastrous €Triliion green-energy experiment “Energiewende” failure.

PA Pundits - International

By Andrew Bolt ~

Green energy and green bans on gas exploration are driving up power prices and killing business. Ten per cent of power generation has already been shut down and the Australian Energy Council now warns we risk “deindustrialising” Australia.

But wasn’t this always the aim of green zealots?:

A decade of political dispute and government paralysis over energy policy is to blame for wholesale electricity prices spiking this year to the equivalent of a $50-a-tonne carbon tax, the power industry warns in a submission to the government’s energy security review.

Warning that the country is facing an investment crisis in new power generation, the submission says that more than 5000 megawatts of generation, representing 10 per cent of national capacity, has been decommissioned since 2012 and is not being replaced…

The [Australian Energy Council] submission to the government’s Independent Review into the Future Security of the Nat­ional…

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