Climate Science: Put Up or Shut Up

The brilliant Rowan Dean.

Science Matters

That’s the theme of an article by Rowan Dean in The Courier-Mail, Australia:  Time for climate scientists to produce evidence that carbon dioxide emissions affect climate  Full text below with my bolds and images.

IT’S time for so-called climate scientists to either cough up one single, solitary shred of genuine scientific evidence that proves that the climate is being changed by mankind’s carbon dioxide emissions, or ‘fess up and admit that the whole thing is a gigantic hoax.

That’s the bottom line.

Asked at the beginning of this year for one of those “predictions for 2017”, I claimed that this would be the year the Australian public wakes up and realises they are being hoodwinked by the whole climate change/renewables scam.

I told Paul Murray’s lively late night TV show on Sky News that 2017 would be the year the climate con comes to an end. So how is my prediction…

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100% Of Climate Models Prove that 97% of Climate Scientists Were Wrong!

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AS egg-on-face moments go, it was a double-yolker. Last week a group of climate scientists published a paper that admitted the estimates of global warming used for years to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on non-carbon energy sources were, er, wrong. | THE TIMES

IN February 2016, climate scientist Dr. John Christy presented testimony to Congress demonstrating that the UN IPCC’s CMIP5 climate models grossly exaggerate and over estimate the impact of atmospheric CO2 levels on global temperatures. Dr. Christy noted in his testimony that “models over-warm the tropical atmosphere by a factor of approximately three″.

Christy CMIP5

UN IPCC CMIP5 Climate models Vs Observations – presented by John Christy PhD to US Senate Congress on Climate Change

 

SEPTEMBER 2017

Dr. Christy was 100% correct …

A landmark paper by warmist scientists in Nature Geoscience now concedes the world has indeed not warmed as predicted, thanks to a slowdown in the first 15 years of this century. One of its authors, Michael Grubb, professor of international energy and climate change at University College London, admits his past predictions of runaway warming were too alarmist.

“When the facts change, I change my mind. We are in a better place than I thought.”

ANOTHER author, Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at Oxford, confessed that too many of the mathematical models used by climate scientists to predict future warming “were on the hot side” — meaning they exaggerated.

“We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models.”

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“We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.” Myles Allen – professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford 

 

SO, the sceptics – the “climate deniers” – were spot-on, again.

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The global warming backpedalling begins. “It’s less worse than we thought” | Tallbloke’s Talkshop

AND yet we have spent literally trillions of dollars of other peoples’ (taxpayers) money on alarmist global warming climate change policies, schemes and rent-seeking scams (windmills, solar panels, mothballed desal plants, pink bats, carbon taxes etc) on the advice of overheated, predictive computer models that do not even observe real-world reality!?

DON’T expect an apology or your money back anytime soon. The climate juggernaut will keep digging at your hip pocket a little while longer – too much money is on the line and too many reputations are now at stake.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS

Via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT :

The pause is alive and well!

 

 

There has been a desperate attempt to divert attention away from the findings of the new paper. This article mentions a letter to the Times by the phoneys, Lords Krebs and Stern.

I have also seen a similar letter in the Mail from Myles Allen. It stated that the difference of 0.3C was really rather insignificant, and that we were still all going to die if we did mend our evil ways, only slightly later!

But the difference is actually really huge, bearing in mind that this is over a period of just 15 years, and particularly when the authors admit that emissions of CO2 have been much greater than originally assumed.

Climate change predictions — what went wrong? | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

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Related :

97% Of Climate Scientists Got it Wrong Related :

The Writing Was On The Wall :

Global Warming “Pause” Related :


CLIMATE Alarmism Has Cost Far More Than Any Global Warming Ever Could

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“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007

GLOBAL WARMING alarmists like to bully you into belief by attacking your apparent ‘overindulgent’ lifestyle, claiming that your AC, SUV, even your diet will leave a diminished planet for our “children’s, children’s, children!”. Dire forecasts always pushed out by generations so no one can keep tabs.

 

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YET, as the Malthusians preach their favourite eco-memes from the comfort of their air-conditioned / centrally-heated, inner suburban eco-palaces, they care little about those who live on planet ‘struggle-street’, right now.

SUCH catastrophic prognostications will inevitably continue from hysterical climate pontificators, even as a landmark paper by warmist scientists in ‘Nature Geoscience’ now concedes the world has indeed not warmed as predicted, thanks to a slowdown in the first 15 years of this century. Begs the questions; who are the real science “deniers”? And, is that “science” really “settled”?

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Long term rainfall map for Melbourne showing the very short dry period when Professor Flannery made his predictions. Everything back to normal now! | Climate Change Denier

ANDREW BOLT writes an excellent piece in The Herald Sun on one of our favourite global warming climate change hysterics, Tim Flannery, whose alarmist predictions have led to radical climate policies that have cost Australian’s literally billions upon billions in green schemes and scams – virtuous offerings to the green faith that have helped to destroy Australia’s once thriving economy and ruined people’s livelihoods.

A MUST READ…

Billions wasted. Desalination plants mothballed. Power prices through the roof. Pensioners unable to pay for their heating. It’s time to count the shocking price we’ve paid for listening to global warming scaremongers like Tim Flannery.

Andrew Bolt: We’re paying for scientists’ climate of fear

AS THE panic ends, check out the shocking price we’ve paid by treating global warming scaremongers like Tim Flannery as our gurus.

Listening to these preachers cost us billions. In fact, we’re still paying the bills — just as some climate scientists are waking up to themselves and saying, “whoops”.

BLOG WITH ANDREW BOLT

BLAME YOUR POWER BILL SPIKE ON POLITICIANS’ GLOBAL WARMING CON

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES ALL PAIN AND NO GAIN

Haven’t you heard? It turns out the science was not settled, after all, and sceptics were right to laugh at Flannery (pictured) and his richly paid gabble of Chicken Littles.

A landmark paper by warmist scientists in Nature Geoscience now concedes the world has indeed not warmed as predicted, thanks to a slowdown in the first 15 years of this century. One of its authors, Michael Grubb, professor of international energy and climate change at University College London, admits his past predictions of runaway warming were too alarmist.

“When the facts change, I change my mind. We are in a better place than I thought.”

Another author, Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at Oxford, confessed that too many of the mathematical models used by climate scientists to predict future warming “were on the hot side” — meaning they exaggerated.

“We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models.”

MORE ANDREW BOLT

Former chief climate commissioner Tim Flannery. Picture: Sam Mooy

That is actually not news to sceptics. Dr Roy Spencer, who runs one of the four main measurements of world temperature from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, has pointed it out for years, but most journalists ignored him. Likewise, they’ve largely ignored that the predicted climate catastrophes have not happened, either.

We have had not more cyclones but fewer; not less rain in Australia but more; not fewer polar bears but more; and not worse crops but record ones, here and overseas.

So why have we wasted a fortune to cut the emissions we now learn aren’t actually causing a warming catastrophe — or certainly not as fast as first said? Why do we have horrendously expensive and mothballed desalination plants in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, still waiting for the drought we were told would be permanent?

Why have we also destroyed our cheap and reliable electricity system, replacing “dirty” coal-fired generators with so much dodgy wind and solar power that we now face blackouts and world-record prices?

True, it’s not all Flannery’s fault. It obviously takes more than one panic merchant to create such mayhem. But Flannery’s career should stand as a reproach to us all, particularly to hypsters who promoted him — the ABC, above all — and to the sheep who believed him.

Flannery is the mammologist who somehow emerged as our high priest of global warming, warning of Armageddon unless we repented our sins against Mother Earth. Our emissions had caused the rains to fail, he proclaimed. Perth could become the world’s first “ghost metropolis”, he warned in 2004.

Former Greens leader and environmentalist Bob Brown. Picture: Chris Kidd

“In Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane, water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months,” he cried in 2007. And he topped it all that year with this: “Even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems.”

As I said, he wasn’t alone. Greens leader Bob Brown in 2006 agreed we faced the “spectre of permanent drought” and The Age quoted armies of alarmists, including the Bureau of Meteorology’s Bertrand Timbal: “We are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.”

So up went the desalination plants. Then down came the laughing rain, flooding Brisbane and filling dams.

You’d think that cosmic joke would have ended Flannery’s career and the global warming scare in one great thunderclap.

But no. Flannery, made our Chief Climate Commissioner by the Gillard Labor government, still heads the Climate Council and still bobs up as an ABC presenter and honoured guest.

And he’s still at it. For instance, two years ago he exploited the category 5 Cyclone Pan that hit Vanuatu, telling the ABC: “Elements of the damage wreaked by that cyclone are being influenced quite strongly by climate change.

“Sadly we’re more likely to see them more frequently in the future.”

In fact, that very next cyclone season our Bureau of Meteorology recorded a first in its satellite records — not a single severe cyclone hit Australia, compared with 11 in 1982.

Why did we ever listen to Flannery and scaremongers like him?

See now what their panic-making has inspired — global warming schemes that have hurt us infinitely more than global warming itself.

MORE ANDREW BOLT

BLOG WITH ANDREW BOLT

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More On Flannery Here :

Dud-Prediction and Failed IPCC Model Related :

97% Of Climate Scientists Got it Wrong About Effects Of Global Warming, related :

 

 


12 New Scientific Papers: Oceans Cooling Globally As Glaciers Thicken

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“Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.”

INTERESTING to see how the warmist community will spin the “science” from these latest inconvenient findings that contradict IPCC climate model predictions and the endless Hottest Year Evah PR claims.

NO doubt, Climate Crisis Inc … and the UN IPCC won’t go near it. And don’t expect to see empirical evidence of globally cooling oceans and thickening glaciers gleefully reported on CNN, BBC or ABC Australia. Any climate news that doesn’t fit the human-caused warming narrative is expressly ignored by the #FakeNews mainstream media, using their favoured and most effective propaganda weapon – confirmation bias.

MORE from Kenneth Richard via Pierre Gosselin’s excellent site NoTricksZone :

12 New Papers: North Atlantic, Pacific, And Southern Oceans Are Cooling As Glaciers Thicken, Gain Mass

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Graph Source Duchez et al., 2016

Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.

According to Dieng et al. (2017), for example, the global oceans underwent a slowdown, a pause, or even a slight cooling trend during 2003 to 2013.  This  undermines expectations from climate models which presume the increase in radiative forcing from human CO2 emissions should substantially increase ocean temperatures.

The authors indicate that the recent trends in ocean temperatures “may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle“, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and not follow radiative forcing trends.

Dieng et al., 2017    We investigate the global mean and regional change of sea surface and land surface temperature over 2003–2013, using a large number of different data sets, and compare with changes observed over the past few decades (starting in 1950). … While confirming cooling of eastern tropical Pacific during the last decade as reported in several recent studies, our results show that the reduced rate of change of the 2003–2013 time span is a global phenomenon. GMST short-term trends since 1950 computed over successive 11-year windows with 1-year overlap show important decadal variability that highly correlates with 11-year trends of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indexThe GMST 11-year trend distribution is well fitted by a Gaussian function, confirming an unforced origin related to internal climate variability.

We evaluate the time derivative of full-depth ocean heat content to determine the planetary energy imbalance with different approaches: in situ measurements, ocean reanalysis and global sea level budget.  For 2003–2013, it amounts to 0.5 +/− 0.1 W m−2, 0.68 +/− 0.1 W m−2 and 0.65 +/− 0.1 W m−2, respectively for the three approaches.    Although the uncertainty is quite large because of considerable errors in the climate sensitivity parameter, we find no evidence of decrease in net radiative forcing in the recent years, but rather an increase compared to the previous decades.
We can note that the correlation between GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends and AMO trends is quite high. It amounts 0.88 over the whole time span. At the beginning of the record, the correlation with PDO trends is also high (equal to 0.8) but breaks down after the mid-1980s.  The GMST and AMO trends shown in Figure 6 show a low in the 1960s and high in the 1990s, suggestive of a 60-year oscillation, as reported for the global mean sea level by Chambers et al. (2012). Thus the observed temporal evolution of the GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle driven by the AMO.

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Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Rapidly Since 2005

According to Piecuch et al. (2017) there has been no net warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the last quarter century.  The warming that occurred in the 10 years from 1994-2004 has been completely negated by an even more pronounced cooling trend since 2005.   The predominant (87%) cause of the warming was determined to be of the same natural (non-anthropogenic) origin as the subsequent cooling: advection, the movement/circulation of heat via internal processes.   In fact, human CO2 emissions are never mentioned as even contributing to the the 1994-2004 warming.

Piecuch et al., 2017    The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004–2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015. … Over the last two decades, the SPNA has undergone a pronounced climate shift. Decadal OHC and SST trends reversed sign around 2004–2005, with a strong warming seen during 1994–2004 and marked cooling observed over 2005–2015. These trend reversals were pronounced (> 0.1 °C yr−1 in magnitude) in the northeastern North Atlantic (south and west of Iceland) and in the Labrador Sea. … To identify basic processes controlling SPNA thermal variations, we diagnose the SPNA heat budget using ECCOv4. Changes in the heat content of an oceanic control volume can be caused by convergences and divergences of advective, diffusive, and surface heat fluxes within the control volume.  [Advective heat convergence] explains 87% of the total [ocean heat content] variance, the former [warming] showing similar decadal behavior to the latter [cooling], increasing over 1994–2004, and decreasing over 2005–2015. … These results demonstrate that the recent SPNA decadal trend reversal was mostly owing to advective convergences by ocean circulation … decadal variability during 1993–2015 is in largest part related to advection by horizontal gyres.

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Yeager and Robson (2017) also point out that, like it did from the 1960s to 1980s, the North Atlantic “has again been cooling”, a trend which they and others expect to continue.   Sea surface temperatures are no warmer today than they were in the 1950s.

Yeager and Robson, 2017    [W]hile the late twentieth century Atlantic was dominated by NAO-driven THC [thermohaline circulation] variability, other mechanisms may dominate in other time periods. … More recently, the SPNA [sub polar North Atlantic] upper ocean has again been cooling, which is also thought to be related to a slowdown in the THC. A continued near-term cooling of the SPNA has been forecast by a number of prediction systems, with implications for pan-Atlantic climate.

The Southern Ocean Has Been Cooling Since The 1970s, Contrary To Models

Latif et al., 2017    The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s, whereas most of the planet has warmed considerably. In contrast, climate models generally simulate Southern Ocean surface warming when driven with observed historical radiative forcing. The mechanisms behind the surface cooling and other prominent changes in the Southern Ocean sector climate during the recent decades, such as expanding sea ice extent, abyssal warming, and CO2 uptake, are still under debate. Observational coverage is sparse, and records are short but rapidly growing, making the Southern Ocean climate system one of the least explored. It is thus difficult to separate current trends from underlying decadal to centennial scale variability.
Turney et al., 2017    Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.

READ Full Report here including; Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice expansion, Pacific Ocean cooling, Glaciers, Ice sheets stable and gaining mass…

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Related :


Warmist Scientist Admits: Our Models Were Wrong

MORE on the shock, global warming “pause” paper from warmists Santer, Mann et al !

via PA Pundits…

 

UPDATE via Climatism:

 

MAKE NO MISTAKE. This paper is massive. It basically reaffirms what climate sceptics (“Deniers”) have been stating for years – that despite record CO2 emissions over the past 20 years, there has been NO statistically significant global warming over this period.

There is a catastrophic problem with the UN’s billion dollar CMIP5 climate models that essentially drive the $trillion global warming industry. They are grossly overheated, leading to the panic, hysteria and fake news seen daily on the topic.

Something other than CO2 must be driving the climate. And The Godfather’s of global warming doom and gloom – Ben Santer and Mikey (hockey stick) Mann et al have released this *scientific* paper supporting the sceptical notion of a lower CO2 sensitivity than perceived by the “97%”.

It is being touted in the sceptic community as “Black Monday” owing to the release day.

Surely, this paper spells the beginning of the end for the greatest and most costly scientific fraud ever perpetrated upon mankind.

PA Pundits - International

By Andrew Bolt ~

Even leading alarmist Ben Santer, lead author of a paper in Nature Geoscience, now admits the world isn’t warming as predicted by global warming models. Even Michael Mann, who produced the infamous hockey stick, has put his name to this paper.

From the abstract:

In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble.

The problem is the models on which the global warming scare is based were simply wrong:

We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.

James Delingpole describes Santer’s colorful history in the climate wars since he was outed in the Climategate scandal.

Sceptical scientists identified this problem years ago:

John Christy, who collects satellite temperature data…

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New ‘Karl-buster’ paper confirms ‘the pause’, and climate models failure

“The gap between observations and models persists. The observed trend deviated by as much as −0.17 °C per decade from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5; ref. 19) ensemble-mean projection1—a gap two to four times the observed trend.

The hiatus therefore continues to challenge climate science.”

– Nature Climate Change (PEER-REVIEWED STUDY)

“This paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.
That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.”

The “pause/hiatus” in Global Warming is now nearing 20 YEARS. This despite *record* man-made CO2 emitted over the same period.

Don’t be at all surprised if – CNN, BBC, ABC, CNBC, LATimes, NYTimes, WaPo, The Age, SMH and the rest of the “climate change” obsessed sycophant media don’t report this massively inconvenient climate news. – Too many reputations, jobs, govt grants and funding are now at stake.

Watts Up With That?

The “uncertainty monster” strikes again

We’ve been highly critical for some time of the paper in summer 2015 by Karl et al. that claimed “the pause” or hiatus went away once “properly adjusted” ocean surface temperature data was applied to the global surface temperature dataset. Virtually everyone in the climate skeptic community considers Karl et al. little more than a sleight of hand.

No matter, this paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.

That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.

Also of note, see the offset as designated…

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New UCLA End of Snow Prediction

“Climate scientists regularly embarrass themselves with “end of snow” predictions, because they are an inevitable consequence of the “projections” (don’t say predictions) of their runaway climate models.”

Dr David Viner of CRU should have taught the climate catastrophists a lesson or three. Although, that was back in 2000. Short memories them climate “scientists”, perhaps ?!

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

UCLA thinks that by the end of the century, Climate will reduce the Sierra Nevada snowpack by 85%.

Climate change puts California’s snowpack in jeopardy in future droughts

UCLA research shows how warming trends affect the Sierra Nevada now and in the future

Belinda Waymouth | March 09, 2017

Skiing in July? It could happen this year, but California’s days of bountiful snow are numbered.

After five years of drought and water restrictions, the state is reeling from its wettest winter in two decades. Moisture-laden storms have turned brown hillsides a lush green and state reservoirs are overflowing. There’s so much snow, Mammoth Mountain resort plans to be open for business on Fourth of July weekend.

The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which provides 60 percent of the state’s water via a vast network of dams and reservoirs, has already been diminished by human-induced climate change…

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