2021 Ends with Cooler Ocean Temps

“ The oceans are driving the warming this century. SSTs took a step up with the 1998 El Nino and have stayed there with help from the North Atlantic, and more recently the Pacific northern “Blob.” The ocean surfaces are releasing a lot of energy, warming the air, but eventually will have a cooling effect. The decline after 1937 was rapid by comparison, so one wonders: How long can the oceans keep this up? If the pattern of recent years continues, NH SST anomalies may rise slightly in coming months, but once again, ENSO which has weakened will probably determine the outcome.”

Should we be discussing climate cycles, perhaps? Or, is it simply easier blaming mankind’s ’excesses’, as in CO2—the byproduct of 80%+ energy use—in order to further subjugate humankind?

Science Matters


The best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:

  • The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
  • SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
  • A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source. Previously I used HadSST3 for these reports, but Hadley Centre has made HadSST4 the priority, and v.3 updates are slow to appear.  HadSST4 is the same as v.3, except that the older data from ship water intake was re-estimated to be generally lower temperatures than shown in v.3.  The effect is that v.4 has lower average anomalies for the baseline period 1961-1990, thereby showing higher current anomalies…

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Dozens of ships stuck in Arctic as ice freezes early in reverse of recent warming winters

Cue the climate cult rebuttal, “See! Lockdown’s work!”

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Arctic sea ice [image credit: cbc.ca] Where are the ‘rapidly warming winters’ this time round? It seems global warming is behaving badly, in parts of the Arctic at least.
– – –
Shipping firms blame the Russian Met office for a forecast that failed to predict the early ice, says the Telegraph.

More than two dozen cargo vessels are stuck in Russia’s Arctic ice, waiting for ice-breakers to come to their rescue, after an inaccurate forecast from the country’s Met Office.

Maritime traffic in the Northern Sea Route has been on the rise in recent years as rapidly warming winters reduce ice cover, and Russia invests in its Arctic ports in preparation for a further boom.

But this year several segments of the Northern Sea Route froze up about a fortnight earlier than usual, catching many ships unawares.

Alexei Likhachyov – director general of Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy company…

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The Shameful Abuse Of Children Via Climate Alarm Indoctrination

“Ours may become the first civilization destroyed, not by the power of our enemies, but by the ignorance of our teachers and the dangerous nonsense they are teaching our children.” — Thomas Sowell

Long read, though some excellent science directly contradicting the hysterical alarmism and pseudoscientific eco-propaganda that we are all, unfortunately, bombarded with 24/7/365.

PA Pundits - International

By Dr. John Happs ~

Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it.

Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumoured by many.

Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders.

Hindu Prince Gautama Siddhartha. (563-483 BCE)

Climate science is complex and inter-disciplinary. When anyone challenges the alarmist claims of “climate catastrophe” or “anthropogenic global warming” (s)he is often met with the banal accusation of “not being a climate scientist.”  Not surprisingly, it has proved impossible to locate that mythical “climate scientist” who has equal expertise in oceanography, atmospheric physics, meteorology, astronomy, paleoclimate, hydrology, volcanism, geology, solar physics, climate history and other climate-related disciplines.

Research in all these areas is ongoing and necessary and we should reflect on the words of Donald Rumsfeld (1932-2021) when, in 2002, he said:

“There are known knowns; there are things we…

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Dead-Calm Weather Killing ‘Inevitable’ Renewable Energy ‘Transition’

“Dead-calm Weather Kills Energy”, perhaps a more apt headline. Net-Zero-Energy-poverty, here we come…

It’s almost as if this is all by design. 🤔

Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?” – (Quote by Maurice Strong, founder of UNEP, billionaire elitist, primary power behind UN throne. Made his billions via oil and gas.)

ajmarciniak

Dead-Calm Weather Killing ‘Inevitable’ Renewable Energy‘Transition’

October 3, 2021bystopthesethings2 Comments

Wind power is, by definition, a wholly weather-dependent power source. So, it should come as no surprise that – whenever a burst of calm-weather hits – those charged with responsibility for delivering power, as and when we need it, scramble to obtain it from any convenient and, more importantly, reliable source. Which is why Germany and the UK have reverted to reliance on their ‘dreaded’ and purportedly ‘dirty’ coal-fired power plants.

Back in January this year, the Germansmandated the closure of 11 coal-fired power plants(with a total combined capacity of 4.7GW). But the legislative shutdown barely lasted a week, with all of those plants being hastily brought back online in response to an outbreak of, you guessed it, calm weather.

Likewise, the Brits have been forced to bring old (thought to be redundant) coal-fired power plants…

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Could Scotland’s Unwanted Wind Turbines Be Turned Into Playparks?

“Could Scotland’s unwanted wind turbines be turned into playparks?”

Absoultely! With more than 13.9 million trees felled (massacred) in Scotland for windmill development from 2000–2019 there appears to be ample room for playparks and beyond! https://climatism.wordpress.com/2020/02/23/scotlands-net-zero-forest-management-program/

There may even be ample room to facilitate future UN COP meetings next to, said, kiddies playparks if “Net Zero” requires such intesne and massive deforeastion to house industrial wind and solar ‘playparks’.

Oh, the irony… kids and globalist bureaucrats all playing (and paying) together in the future playparks of denuded-forest-gulags.

“Build Back Better!”

(sigh)

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Windy Standard wind farm, Scotland [credit: RWE.com] Ideas, opinions, feedback etc. are invited here. It could be said they’ve already had decades to think about this, but any negativity will no doubt be ignored. Existing uses include children’s play areas and bike sheds, but there’s only so many of those that would find a place.
– – –
One wind farm company is looking for imaginative ways to repurpose turbines at the end of their lives, says BBC News.

When Windy Standard was built in Dumfries and Galloway in the mid-1990s, it was Scotland’s second largest wind farm.

Now it is coming to the end of its functional life and the old turbines are set to be replaced by more powerful machines.

But what happens to the original turbines? Owner Fred Olsen Renewables wants to find creative and sustainable ways to ensure they do not end up in…

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Finally a Real Crisis: Shortage of Carbon Dioxide

“Acute food shortages were feared last night after high gas prices forced most of Britain’s commercial production of carbon dioxide to shut down.

The closure of two fertiliser plants in northern England and others in Europe has left the food and drink industry facing a shortage of carbon dioxide, which is a byproduct of fertiliser manufacturing. The gas is critical to the production and transport of a range of products, from meat to bread, beer and fizzy drinks.”

The twisted irony of climate wokeism, on full display; a shortage of life-sustaining CO2 caused by extremist climate policies that aim to ‘eliminate’ life-sustaining CO2 in the form of cheap, reliable energy!

Not to mention the hard reality of the swift, tangible and disastrous effects to society of constantly ‘bending the knee’ to the anti-human climate lobby, on full display.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

energy1The UK shut down cheap coal, refused to drill for its own gas, and failed to replace its old nuclear power stations then, when gas suddenly becomes expensive, is caught with its proverbial trousers down. So much for ‘world leading’ climate policies.
– – –
As energy prices in Europe go through the roof, factories are beginning to shut down and food is disappearing from the shelves, say The Times & The GWPF.

Welcome to green Britain, offering a foretaste of what life will be like under Net Zero conditions – poorer, colder, hungrier – unless Government changes course.

Acute food shortages were feared last night after high gas prices forced most of Britain’s commercial production of carbon dioxide to shut down.

Emergency talks were being held between government officials and food producers, retailers and the energy industry with warnings of a “black swan event”, an extremely rare blow with unpredictable…

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Health Dept. Launches New “Office Of Climate Change And Health Equity”

Smart move!

After all, Covid-19 has an eventual ‘used-by’ date.

Big government statists well aware that they can’t use a virus, forever, to limit your selfish ‘excesses’ in their authoritarian quest to “Build Back Better”.

The unlimited timeline of “climate change” — a far more appropriate ‘crisis’ to control you while remaking civilisation in their own image.

Top work, our dear ‘planet saviours’! (Sigh)

In times of open deceit and authoritarian behaviour, the prophetic words of the wiser may provide a semblance of solace through understanding …

“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely
exercised for the good of its victims
may be the most oppressive.”
– C. S. Lewis

“The urge to save humanity is almost always a false-front for the urge to rule it.”
– H.L. Mencken

PA Pundits - International

By Adam Houser ~

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has launched a new Office of Climate Change & Health Equity.

The staff will report to the White House’s task force on climate change and focus on how climate change risks the health of Americans, particularly the poor and minorities.

As reported in the Wall Street Journal:

“The new office is likely to spur initiatives touching on many aspects of healthcare, HHS officials announced Monday. It is expected to offer protections for populations most at risk—including the elderly, minorities, rural communities and children, and the office could eventually compel hospitals and other care facilities to reduce carbon emissions.

“Asked how HHS would reduce carbon emissions from healthcare facilities, Mr. Becerra said: ‘We will use every authority to its greatest advantage because it is time to tackle climate change now.’

“Officials said one of the first tasks…

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Global Warming Bombshell : Science Magazine Article Blows The Whistle On Climate Model Failure

“When the heart rules the head,
passion takes over reason.”

– Ortega y Gasset

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know,
it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.”
– Mark Twain

“Blind trust in authority
is the greatest enemy of the truth.”

– Albert Einstein

“It’s like the boy who repeatedly cried wolf.
If I observe many successive forecast failures,
I may be unwilling to take future forecasts seriously.

– David C. Rode et al, Apocalypse now Communicating extreme forecasts, International Journal of Global Warming (2021)

“The ‘problem’ is not only that all of the expired forecasts were wrong,
but also that so many of them never
admitted to any uncertainty about the date.”

– David C. Rode et al, Apocalypse now Communicating extreme forecasts, International Journal of Global Warming (2021)

•••

Take a bow, climate realists!

They – the scientific ‘experts’, power-obsessed politicians, globalist elites, the useful idiots, and the UNreliables grifters were wrong, while you were right, all along.

The world recently witnessed how alarmist, Imperial College COVID-19 model predictions inspired mass-global-hysteria, leading to overreaching and draconian (global) government ‘health’ edicts with the resulting economic, social and mental health fallout arguably far worse than the disease itself.

Now, the world is finally being told the truth about the 32+ “cooked” UN IPCC climate models that have single-handedly driven the most egregious and costly pseudoscientific campaign of fear and alarmism ever perpetrated upon mankind.

Misguided climate hysteria that has failed time-and-time-again to match real-world evidence and observed data.

Relentless mainstream-media-driven hysteria, based on biased UN model predictions, has fuelled a relentless tidal wave of unhinged activism, devouring; every last respectable public institution, otherwise intelligent minds, and worst of all, the taxpayer’s hard-earned-money at a rate of 1.4 trillion dollars per year, or 4.5 billion dollars per day, according to a 2015 article by Climate Change Journal.

However, have cooler heads finally prevailed from, of all places, the head of the most ‘revered’ and influential of all the many taxpayer funded ‘climate’ institutions?

This weeks bombshell climate-model-mea-culpa delivered by none other than the head of NASA (GISS) Climate, Gavin Schmidt, a chief architect of global-climate-alarmism. 

Read it and weep, climate crazies.

(Climatism bolds)

Leading climate scientists conceded that models used to estimate how much the world will warm with rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are running too hot.

“It’s become clear over the last year or so that we can’t avoid this,” Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told Science ­magazine.

The admission is seen as a significant development by scientists who argue that not enough attention has been paid to natural ­cycles in the earth’s climate.

It puts another question mark over the use of the most extreme scenarios generated by models, RCP8.5, to estimate what could be expected in a warming world.

The concession has been made on the eve of this month’s release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report on the science of climate change.

That report, delayed a year ­because of Covid-19, is due to be released on Aug­ust 9 and will outline what can be expected with different levels of warming.

It will play a major role in ­preparations for the upcoming ­climate change summit in ­Glasgow, Scotland, in November.

A Science article published this week said climate scientists faced the alarming reality that “climate models that help them project the future have grown a little too alarmist”.

“Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, ­including the model makers themselves, believe are implausibly fast”, the article said.

“In advance of the UN report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models, which in other respects are more powerful and trustworthy than their predecessors, into useful guidance for policymakers.”

In the past, most models projected a “climate sensitivity” – the warming expected when atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled over pre-industrial times – of ­between 2C and 4.5C.

Last year, a landmark paper that used documented factors including ongoing warming trends calculated a likely climate sensitivity of between 2.6C and 3.9C but many of the new models from leading centres showed warming of more than 5C – uncomfortably outside these bounds.

The models were also out of step with records of past climate.

According to Science, the IPCC team will probably use ­reality – the actual warming of the world over the past few decades – to constrain model projections.

The IPCC report is also likely to present the impacts of different amounts of warming – 2C, 3C, 4C – rather than saying how quickly those impacts will be felt.

Steve Sherwood from the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre said “while it is true some new climate models have surprising climate sensitivities and predict very high future warming, what doesn’t always come through is that most new models have sensitivity values within the range estimated from observations”.

“Those models still predict substantial future weather and climate changes due to carbon dioxide, similar to predictions made by the science community for many years,” Professor Sherwood said.

US climate scientist Judith Curry said the IPCC report would certainly discuss the problem with climate models: “The elephant in the room for the IPCC is they are heavily relying on RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, which are now widely regarded as implausible.”

Michael Asten, an expert reviewer of the IPCC’s AR6 report, said the admission that climate models were running hot was a significant concession.

GRAHAM LLOYD

ENVIRONMENT EDITOR

Graham Lloyd is a fearless reporter of all sides of the environment debate. A former night editor, chief editorial writer and deputy business editor with The Australian, Graham has held senior positions nationa… Read more

Via : Climate change: Science magazine article blows the whistle on model failure | The Australian

•••

See also :

Related :

CO2 Related :

SUN Related :


Could Pacific Northwest heatwave, European floods have been caused by the Sun?

Jet-stream blocking, as a result of weakening of the sun’s output, appears plausible, and certainly consistent with the current-and-rapid (~2 year) cooling cycle of the global atmosphere, despite record and rising CO₂ ’emissions’.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Just don’t mention “the sun” – one might just as easily be cancelled, or labelled a “climate denier” … all under the guise of ‘science’ and scientific discovery, of course.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

omegablock Credit: The Weather Network

Of course they could have been. The question is, were they? Assigning weather events to ‘global warming’ is ambiguous without a full definition of what the assigner means by that term. Jet stream blocking events discussed below are well-known to meteorologists, and constantly claiming them as evidence of a new human-caused problem with the climate is a stretch, to say the least.
– – –
The recent record-shattering heat wave in the Pacific northwest and devastating floods in western Europe have both been ascribed to global warming by many climate scientists, says Science Under Attack.

But an alternative explanation, voiced by some climatologists yet ignored by the mainstream media, is that the disasters were caused by the phenomenon of jet-stream blocking – which may or may not be a result of global warming, and could instead arise from a weakening of the sun’s output.

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Climate Change : An Excuse For Political Incompetence

“Without any evidence, when flooding occurs today, climate alarmists point their collective fingers at the trivial emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide.

The German spa town of Bad Schandau is sited in a valley on the banks of the river Elbe. Not surprisingly, the town has been flooded many times, as the town’s collection of flood markers show…”

IF the corrupt mainstream media dared educate and expose their audience to historical weather-related ‘disasters’, as scientifically laid out in this elegant post by Dr John Happs, the legitimacy of their “climate crisis” and “climate emergency” proclamations, along with their ongoing politically-motivated ‘climate change’ agenda would be severely compromised, if not terminated in totality.

For this precise reason, the elite-media-cabal wilfully continue their anti-human, anti-science endeavour of bias-by-omission… If it never happened in the past, then current (media-hyped) weather ‘extremes’ must be “unprecedented”, caused, obviously, by the sins and excesses of ‘evil’ mankind.

Good read.

PA Pundits - International

By Dr. John Happs ~

People have always been drawn to the coast and rivers because of their scenic locations. In earlier times there were clear advantages from riverside and coastal living since they provided easier trade and communication with other parts of the country and overseas. Around the world, building on the fertile soils of riverside floodplains has been widespread and still continues even though we know that floodplains are plains that will always flood.

Queensland Floods 1974

Climate change received little or no mention by the media or politicians during the inundation of Queensland floodplains in 1974:

After this event, houses were rebuilt only to suffer later flooding. There were floodplain inundations in Queensland during 2011, 2012, 2013, 2018, 2019 and 2020. The more recent floods were met, not with expressions of regret for allowing building to continue in these areas, but with the anticipated cries of “global…

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