OPEN Letter To The Bureau Of Meteorology – Tropical Cyclone Trends

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Graph showing the number of severe and non-severe tropical cyclones from 1970–2011 which have occurred in the Australian region. Severe tropical cyclones are those which show a minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa.

Dear BoM,

I have been a keen observer of weather and climate for well over a climate point (42 years)!

The chaotic system of climate and “climate change” is ever fascinating. Though, today the ‘chaos’ has been replaced by an unhealthy polarization of “the science”, all too often determined by belief, politics and ideology. Sadly, dogma has trumped empirical evidence, corrupting the scientific method.

That said, I am seeking from you an updated version of the cyclone trends graph which ends at 2011. The BoM site has excellent data up to 2017 to complete the series. Is there a reason why the data has not been translated to the current graph? I would be happy to work on getting it up to date if resources are limited!

As a start, there is a written record from 2012-2015 here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/index.shtml

However, this record does not quite match the said graph 1969 – 2011. Methodology for what qualifies the graphed record would be appreciated.

Sincerely,

Jamie Spry (Melbourne, Australia)

 


GREEN ENERGY FAIL – World Coal Power Development Up 43%

Coal China.jpg

The ultra-supercritical Shanghai Waigaoqiao No. 3 is one of China’s flagship high-efficiency, low-emissions coal-fired power plants.

UNRELIABLE energy (wind/solar) proponents parrot the same mindless, groupthink propaganda about the so-called “green energy revolution” (which provides under 2% of the world’s power after trillions of dollars spent), demanding that we must “transition now!” so as to not be “left behind by the rest of the world!”.

MEMO to the misinformed …

From The New York Times

“1,600 new coal-fired power plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries.”

Coal fired power staions NYT

 

MEANWHILE, back in Australia, global warming theory obsessed politicians are giving up the countries once prized economic advantage of having cheap, reliable energy, by decommissioning and blowing up their last remaining coal-fired power plants. Greens and Labor parties even cheering about it!

Playford A Power Station Stack Felling

NPS West Coal Bunker and Tower Demolition

NPS East Coal Bunker and Coal Transfer Towers

via Augusta Power Stations – Flinders Power

 

NEIGHBOURING State, Victoria, whose Socialist Left government is also obsessed with green energy and the climate faith has closed Hazelwood coal-fired power station, which did not merely supply Victoria with a quarter of its power but also helped bail out South Australia.

ALL this destruction of Australia’s once cheap, efficient, relaible, baseload power supply has led to Australia now having some of the highest power prices in the world. South Australia officially has “the highest“!

THE world sure got the message: South Australia is closed for investment in heavy industry, and so, soon, will be the rest of Australia if they don’t learn from the dire consequences of destroying cheap power.

THE situation has become so dire in SA that the Weatherill Labor government is now spending a whopping $360 million on imported diesel generators in an attempt to maintain power supply after a summer of statewide blackouts 2016/17, which earned SA title of “the blackout capital of the world.”

 

More from The Herald Sun’s Andrew Bolt:

The public is now waking up to this madness, and to the falsehoods that inspired it.

Let’s expose the five biggest.

FALSEHOOD ONE: We can afford Labor’s green energy target.

In fact, just to meet the targets set by Labor in Queensland and Victoria would force us to build 4800 wind generators at an estimated cost of $41 billion. And those states would then have a power system as dodgy as South Australia’s.

FALSEHOOD TWO: This green energy creates lots of “green jobs”.

In fact, it costs jobs. The wind power industry gives full-time jobs to just 1230 Australians, according to the Bureau of Statistics. But if the Victorian Government goes ahead with policies to close the giant Hazelwood coal-fired station, that alone would cost the jobs of 1000 Hazelwood workers.

Worse, other businesses would be hit with power price rises of up to 5 per cent, enough to probably kill the power-intensive Portland aluminium smelter, for one, with its 750 workers.

FALSEHOOD THREE: Australia will save the planet by switching to green power. In fact, cutting our emissions makes no measurable difference to global temperatures, which is why politicians refuse to say how much temperatures will fall as a consequence of the billions they are spending. Ask them yourself: for all this pain, how much will we gain? By how much will temperatures fall?

I’ve asked everyone from the Liberals’ Greg Hunt to Labor’s Penny Wong, from alarmist Tim Flannery to populist Kevin Rudd, and not one will answer.

FALSEHOOD FOUR: We are doomed if we don’t cut the temperature. In fact, the warmists’ predictions of doom keep bombing.

In 2007, Climate Council boss Flannery warned that “even the rain that falls will not fill our dams and our river systems”. In 2008, the weather bureau warned that drought could become “our new climate”. In 2012, the Australian Conservation Foundation warned it “will be less and less likely that we can feed the human population”.

But what do we see instead?

Years of good rain. Dams filling. Rivers flooding. A record world harvest of grain crops.

FALSEHOOD FIVE: the public still believes this warming scare.

In fact, even a survey for the embarrassed Climate Institute last month found just 30 per cent of Australians still believed the world was warming and humans were mostly to blame.

Most Australians are now sceptics. The great warming scare is failing, which explains the panic over South Australia’s blackout.

The lights went out. But for many Australians, a light bulb went on.

Pardon? Here were storms bringing the rains the warmists told us were gone, and switching off the green power the warmists told us would stay.

Green power, gone with the wind. 

South Australian blackout puts questions on value of wind power | Herald Sun

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Energy Related :

World Coal-Fired Power Surge Related :

Unreliable Energy Related :


DIESEL – Keeping South Australia’s Lights On Til The Next Election!

SA Green Energy.jpeg

South Australia’s green utopia – burning 80,000 litres of diesel every hour, everyday to cover up its renewables debacle!

 

WHAT do you do when you submit to the deep-green climate faith, blow up all your baseload coal-fired power stations, disconnect from the National grid and become reliant on intermittent, weather-dependent, unreliable green energy – wind and solar?

YOU buy $360 million worth of diesel generators and hope that burning 80,000 litres of petrochemicals every hour, everyday will prevent summer blackouts ahead of your next state election.

THOSE blackouts, which occur when the total demand for electricity exceeds supply, occurred three times last summer.

BUT, aren’t petrochemicals, like diesel, the same “dirty” fossil fuels that climate catastrophists scarify us for indulging in, claiming that their use will fry the planet? #LeaveItInTheGround, #BigOilShill, #DivestFossilFuels – a few of the propagandised euphemisms bandied around by eco-activists.

SO, that question again – what’s the point of the billion dollar, taxpayer funded, unreliable energy (wind and solar) experiment?

FOR the Jay Weatherill’s of the planet, one could only assume that it’s a moral blend of “Save the Planet” virtue, mixed with “Save the Planet” virtue. It certainly has nothing to do with sense or reason, or being “green”…

Generators the Weatherill government is buying to prevent blackouts this summer ahead of the March state election will use 80,000 litres of diesel an hour.

The fleet of generators, currently being shipped from Europe to South Australia, have been used for temporary generation around the world. But those behind the South Australian energy security project, costing taxpayers more than $300 million, yesterday could not say if the generators had ever been used as part of a permanent solution.

In a major revision to his $550m go-it-alone energy plan, Premier Jay Weatherill last week announced nine “state-of-the-art” gen­erators providing up to 276 megawatts would be purchased to provide back-up power for the next two summers.

Weatherill’s 80,000 litres of diesel an hour solution to SA energy crisis | The Australian

*

BATTERY BLUES

AS part of the government’s $550 million go-it-alone energy plan, the Premier, along with Tesla’s subsidy-sucking vampire Elon Musk, announced in July that Tesla would build a $200 million 100MW giant battery pack to store energy for when the wind don’t blow or when the sun don’t shine…

BUT, this week, in a blow to Jay Weatherill’s “bromance” with Mr Musk, the US tech billionaire’s Tesla has slammed the South Australian government’s planned energy security target and warned it is not representative of the state’s leadership on renewable energy.

ANALYSIS of Tesla’s (toxic) battery pack by Paul Homewood estimates that it “could have enough battery storage to replace wind power for a whole minute, should the wind stop.”

Other analysts suggest that the battery is still only big enough to keep a town of just 13,000 homes going for 24 hours!

IS Elon hedging his grandiose claim of Tesla saving South Australia from complete energy meltdown? Sounds a lot like it. Ouch.

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BIG GOVERNMENT

JUST as socialist central planning failed miserably before it was replaced by free market economies, green central planning will have to be discarded before South Australia will be able to see a return to energy security and erase its name from the unenviable title of having the “highest power prices in the world.

UNTIL big government backs off, taxpayers will continue to pay billions of dollars more for fake fixes to a fake catastrophe.

“My sympathies to all the South Australians who didn’t vote for this.” Jo Nova.

Climatism concurs, Jo!

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H/t to Miranda Devine

SA Power Crisis Related :

See Also :


THE “Blizzard Of Oz” That Wasn’t Meant To Be

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Australian snowfields rejoice after ‘Blizzard of Oz’ turns slopes into winter wonderland

via ABC.net.au

It’s been dubbed “the Blizzard of Oz”, and powder hounds could not be happier.

Australia’s ski resorts in the Snowy Mountains, in New South Wales, and Victoria’s Alpine National Park were covered with the white stuff this morning after both reported the best falls of the season at the weekend.

More than 1.15 metres of snow has been dumped at Thredbo from Friday morning to 6:00am today.

Blizzard of Oz1.jpgPHOTO: More than 1.15 metres of snow has been dumped at Thredbo. (Instagram: @_carlyt) Blizzard of Oz2.jpg

PHOTO: Mt Hotham, in Victoria’s Alpine National Park, looked more like Europe at the weekend. (Instagram: @sarahwhite2017)Blizzard of Oz3.jpgPHOTO: The snow at Falls Creek. (Instagram: @fallscreek)

Australian snowfields rejoice after ‘Blizzard of Oz’ turns slopes into winter wonderland – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
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BUT, wasn’t ‘snowfall’ meant to be “a very rare and exciting event.” And, that “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” ?

Those expert predictions made back in 2000 by esteemed climatologist Dr David Viner of the UK’s CRU (Climate Research Unit):

From the Independent’s most cited article: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past” by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

THE Independent has since removed the article! The page used to look like this:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past-404

The original article:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past-original

Link now boots back to their homepage.

Our friends at WUWT have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – The Independent (PDF)

In fairness, perhaps the good Dr Viner was colluding consulting with the virtuous partners of climate catastrophe expertise – the UN IPCC who, as well, predicted diminished snowfalls as human CO2 increased…

ipcc-less-snow

IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001 – Complete online versions | GRID-Arendal – Publications – Other

warmer-winters-ipcc

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Australia’s “premier” scientific government organisation, the (warmist) CSIRO, jumped on the “end of snow” bandwagon in August 2003:

Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths.  At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/73212/TheImpactofClimateChangeonSnowConditions2003.pdf 

(Page Not Found – LOL !)

In 2014, the New York Times signalled “The End of Snow”:ScreenHunter_314 Feb. 07 11.00

The End of Snow? – NYTimes.com

•••

BACK IN THE REAL WORLD

Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent is trending upwards, and 2017 was amongst the highest on record, despite rising CO2 emissions and the “Hottest Year Evah” thing:

Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at , August 7, 4.07.56 PM

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

AND as for the expert predictions of the CSIRO, who assured us of the end of snow by 2020/2030…

Australia’s snowfields have been overdosed by snow over the past decade.

In fact, SH snow extent is increasing as global CO2 rises – the exact opposite of what you were told by all those experts

2016 – Extended season:

screen-shot-2017-02-22-at-february-22-8-05-58-pm

Heavy snow forecast for the Australian Alps despite ski season ending a month ago

2017 – THE “Blizzard Of Oz” ! :

Blizzard of Oz4.jpg

Blizzards close in on Melbourne, floods hit South Australia | The Australian

WHEN will those expert scientists, esteemed government agencies and respected mainstream media outlets who peddle the fake global warming catastrophe, spreading scientific falsehoods with impunity, be held to account? Or at least admit they got it wrong?

That “science” certainly ain’t “settled”.

•••

UPDATE – August 8, 2017

Emergency services warn of avalanches in Victoria’s alpine region

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at , August 8, 8.45.01 AM.png

Click to Play…

EMERGENCY services have issued an avalanche warning for Victoria’s alpine region as tourists have been urged to avoid skiing, snowboarding, or hiking in remote areas.

Warmer weather and strong wind is expected to increase the risk of avalanches at Mt Bogong, mt feathertop, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Falls Creek today.

Victorian alpine region: avalanche warning issued for skiers, snowboarders | Herald Sun

DO hope SMH’s (Fairfax media) resident global warming catastrophist Peter Hannam has received this alert, if he plans to visit Australia’s ski fields. The one’s that he and those expert scientists say won’t be around much longer thanks to you and your SUV…

Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope

Peter Hannam Peter Hannam

August 5 – Last week’s fake news – Sydney Morning Herald

Australia’s ski resorts face the prospect of a long downhill run as a warming climate reduces snow depth, cover and duration. The industry’s ability to create artificial snow will also be challenged, scientists say.

Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope

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Related :

CSIRO Dud-Predictions Related :

 


The New American: “New Film Exposes Communist Roots of “Sustainability” Agenda”

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Sustainability is Malthusianism for the 21st Century | Climatism

ATMOSPHERIC Physicist, MIT Professor of Meteorology and former IPCC lead author Richard S. Lindzen, knows the politics and ideology behind the CO2-centricity that beleaguers the man-made climate change agenda. His summary goes to the very heart of why Carbon Dioxide has become the centre-piece of the ‘global’ climate debate:

“FOR A LOT of people including the bureaucracy in Government and the environmental movement, the issue is power. It’s hard to imagine a better leverage point than carbon dioxide to assume control over a society. It’s essential to the production of energy, it’s essential to breathing. If you demonise it and gain control over it, you so-to-speak, control everything. That’s attractive to people. It’s been openly stated for over forty years that one should try to use this issue for a variety of purposes, ranging from North/South redistribution, to energy independence, to God knows what…”
•••
“CO2 for different people has different attractions. After all, what is it? – it’s not a pollutant, it’s a product of every living creature’s breathing, it’s the product of all plant respiration, it is essential for plant life and photosynthesis, it’s a product of all industrial burning, it’s a product of driving – I mean, if you ever wanted a leverage point to control everything from exhalation to driving, this would be a dream. So it has a kind of fundamental attractiveness to bureaucratic mentality.

And, BEWARE those sweet-sounding words designed by the UN’s deep-green, Agenda 21 program :

– “Sustainability” and
– “Smart Growth”

Related :

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EXTREME WEATHER Expert: “World Is Presently In An Era Of Unusually Low Weather Disasters”

EXTREME Weather data.jpg

CLIMATE sceptics have been consistently pointing to data rather than superstition, politics and emotion in order to examine the contentious relationship between human CO2 emissions and global warming climate change.

Climate alarmists will frequently default to the “extreme weather” narrative in order to deceptively promote the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) narrative by instilling fear, doom and gloom directly into the human psyche.

However, by most metrics, the data shows us that extreme weather events are becoming ‘less’ extreme as CO2 increases.

Climate Depot with more…

Professor Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado Boulder: “The world is presently in an era of unusually low weather disasters. This holds for the weather phenomena that have historically caused the most damage: tropical cyclones, floods, tornadoes and drought. Given how weather events have become politicized in debates over climate change, some find this hard to believe…

The US has seen a decrease of about 20% in both hurricane frequency and intensity at landfall since 1900…

Data on floods, drought and tornadoes are similar in that they show little to no indication of becoming more severe or frequent…

Thus, it is fair to conclude that the costs of disasters worldwide is depressed because, as the global economy has grown, disaster costs have not grown at the same rate. Thus, disaster costs as a proportion of GDP have decreased. One important reason for this is a lack of increase in the weather events that cause disasters, most notably, tropical cyclones worldwide and especially hurricanes in the United States.

Why has this occurred? Is it good luck, climate change or something else?

A good place to start is with tropical cyclones, given that they are often the most costly weather events to occur each year.  The figure below shows global tropical cyclone landfalls from 1990 through 2016. These are the storms that cause the overwhelming majority of property damage. Since 1990 there has been a reduction of about 3 landfalling storms per year (from ~17 to ~14), which certainly helps to explain why disaster losses are somewhat depressed.

Even more striking is the extended period in the United States, which has the most exposure to tropical cyclone damage, without the landfall of an intense hurricane. The figure below shows the number of days between each landfall of a Category 3+ hurricane in the US, starting in 1900. As of this writing the tally is approaching 4500 days, which is a streak of good fortune not seen in the historical record.

Read full study here…

Via: https://riskfrontiers.com/weather-related-natural-disasters-should-we-be-concerned-about-a-reversion-to-the-mean/

 

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See Also :


AL GORE Confirms : Global Warming Is A Religion

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Pic source : Climate conversion? Al Gore: ‘I could become a Catholic because of this Pope’ | Climate Depot

Via Andrew Bolt – Herald Sun

I’ve warned that global warming is a religion, with little to do with reason.

Now warming preacher Al Gore confirms it:

Father John Rausch: As a priest living in central Appalachia, I’ve come to – I’ve come to realise that the climate crisis, I believe, is a crisis in spirituality.

Al Gore: The way we live our lives is definitely connected to this. It is – it’s not a political issue. It is a moral and spiritual issue and thank you for bringing that up.

This explains so much: the hatred of sceptics; the persecution of sceptics as heretics; the resistance to reason; the end-of-days apocalyptic rhetoric; the demand for purely symbolic sacrifices; the disdain for evidence showing little warming and no added catastrophes.

•••

UPDATE

Al Gore’s swimming pool uses the same electricity as six US homes

via Jo Nova

The National Center for Public Policy Research released a report that tells us Al Gore’s swimming pool uses the same electricity as six average US homes. In kilowatt hours, his house draws a total annual load equivalent to 21 homes — averages 19,241 kWh per month. He probably lives alone now that Tipper and the kids have moved out. This is after he paid $60,000 to add solar panels which provide about 5% of his domestic electricity (Why doesn’t he just go solar, that’d be only $720k, plus batteries).

He owns two other homes.

I would never use this as an ad hom argument to say that man-made global warming crisis is wildly exaggerated (there are plenty of other reasons to say that). Obviously poor Al needs to use more electricity than most people so he can swim in between flights, because he is constantly being attacked in articles like this one:

How Al Gore Fooled The World Into Paying For His Giant Carbon Footprint

 …The real reason Al Gore wants you to read his books and go see his movies and even see his lectures isn’t because he is trying to save the Earth from global warming and climate change, but because he’s invested in products that will be successful as long as people are convinced by the climate change scare tactics.

He quotes Andrew Follett in the Daily Caller:

The former vice president’s global warming activism has helped increase his net worth from $700,000 in 2000 to an estimated net worth of $172.5 million by 2015. Gore and the former chief of Goldman Sachs Asset Management made nearly $218 million in profits between 2008 and 2011 from a carbon trading company they co-founded. By 2008, Gore was able to put a whopping $35 million into hedge funds and other investments.

Gore also has a remarkable record of investing in companies right before they get huge grants from the government.

Obviously Gore believes the planet is in a crisis and is doing his best to save it.

From the report:

In powering his home, Gore still greatly outpaces most Americans in energy consumption. The findings were shocking:

• The past year, Gore’s home energy use averaged 19,241 kilowatt hours (kWh) every month, compared to the U.S. household average of 901 kWh per month.3,4
• Gore guzzles more electricity in one year than the average American family uses in 21 years.5
• In September of 2016, Gore’s home consumed 30,993 kWh in just one month – as much energy as a typical American family burns in 34 months.
• During the last 12 months, Gore devoured 66,159 kWh of electricity just heating his pool. That is enough energy to power six average U.S. households for a year.
• From August 2016 through July 2017, Gore spent almost $22,000 on electricity bills.6
• Gore paid an estimated $60,000 to install 33 solar panels. Those solar panels produce an average of 1,092 kWh per month, only 5.7% of Gore’s typical monthly energy consumption.

MUST See also : AL GORE GASSES ON AT HOME | Herald Sun

Saint Gore Related :