COGNITIVE BIAS : Climate Change Alarmists Refuse To Accept ‘The Science’ That Proves Extreme Weather Events Are NOT IncreasingPosted: March 18, 2019
“WHEN the heart rules the head,
passion takes over reason.”
– Ortega y Gasset
“IT would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”
― Joseph Goebbels
THE widely held belief that ‘Extreme Weather’ has become worse, as a result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, is a tribute to the success of climate change propaganda pushed relentlessly by CO2-centric politicians and compliant mainstream media.
PROMOTING Extreme Weather is specifically designed to shift public opinion about the purported seriousness of human-induced
global warming climate change, through the use of emotional imagery and dire prognostications in order for draconian and costly climate policy to be accepted and implemented with as little resistance as possible from the taxpaying public.
COGNITIVE BIAS fuelled by an era of mass hysteria, delusion, groupthink and panic has helped foster dark and far-fetched clichés of a current “climate crisis”, that is an “existential threat” which will “end civilisation by 2030”.
THANKS to the dramatic rise in personal weather recording devices – smart phones and CCTV – the sampling rate (what you see or hear directly) of Extreme Weather events, broadcast via social and mainstream media, has risen dramatically in recent years.
BUT, have actual Extreme Weather events increased in frequency or intensity? In particular, over long-term ‘climate’ scales?
THE short answer is a big fat NO! Extreme Weather events have not increased in frequency or intensity as carbon dioxide emissions have increased. In many cases the exact opposite is occurring.
THIS ‘inconvenient’ fact has been proven by empirical data and confirmed by the last two (warmist) U.N. IPCC reports on Extreme Weather: SREX (AR5) 2013 report and the latest SR15 report released August, 2018:
- SORRY ALARMISTS : The IPCC Once Again Reports Extreme Weather Events Have Not Increased | Climatism (SR15 2018)
- No steel roof required: IPCC dials back the fear of extreme weather | Climatism (SREX AR5 2013)
EXTREME WEATHER METRICS
UN IPCC : “Low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale…likely to be trends in some regions of the world, including increases in drought in the Mediterranean and W Africa & decreases in droughts in central N America & NW Australia” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
NO historical trend in U.S. drought as CO₂ rises :
1934 : WHEN CO₂ WAS AT ‘SAFE’ LEVELS
IN 1934, when CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, severe to extreme drought covered around 80% of the entire U.S. Such conditions endured for most of the decade known as the “Dust Bowl” era :
400 PPM ‘DANGEROUS’ CO₂
CURRENT U.S. drought conditions with CO₂ at ‘dangerous’ levels (400PPM) :
CALIFORNIA’s “PERMANENT DROUGHT” UPDATE
THANKS to superstitious climate kiddies wagging school, in just 3 years, California went from 97% in drought to just 1% :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe’ levels, droughts in California lasted for 200 years :
“There is low confidence due to limited evidence, however, that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
ACCORDING to the EPA, the low-CO2 1930s had (by far) the worst heatwaves in US history :
WHEN CO₂ was at ‘safe levels’, Adelaide’s temperature climbed above 100°F, six days in a row.
ADELAIDE – March, 1940 :
- Friday – 24°C (74.4F)
- Saturday – 24°C (75.7F)
- Sunday – 28°C (81.7F)
- Monday – 34°C (93.5F)
- Tuesday – 31°C (88.4F)
- Wednesday – 35°C (94.9F)
- Thursday – 40°C (103.9F)
- Friday – 42°C (107.7F)
- Saturday – 43°C (110.1F)
- Sunday – 42°C (108.3F)
- Monday – 42°C (107.9F)
- Tuesday – 40°C (103.6F)
GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONES
“Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend
in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy”– UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
“There is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades.” – UN IPCC SR15 (2018)
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES
AUSTRALIAN tropical cyclones are declining in both intensity and frequency as CO₂ rises :
GLOBAL Hurricanes are declining in both frequency and intensity as CO₂ increases :
CAT 3+ U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes (per decade) declining rapidly as CO₂ emissions rise :
FLORIDA Major Hurricane Strikes – Still No Trend :
2018 was one of the least active US tornado years on record, despite record and rising CO₂ emissions.
AS of October, a new record low tornado count was set. The cumulative total for 2018 is 759; the previous lowest number of tornadoes for this date was 761. The SPC has records extending back 65 years.
This lack of tornadic storms in recent years should also correlate with lesser severe thunderstorm activity in general in the U.S., since the conditions which produce large hail and damaging winds are generally the same as are required for tornadoes (strong instability, plentiful moisture, and wind shear). – Roy Spencer PhD
THE frequency of strong to violent tornadoes is also decreasing :
THE trend is clearly down across the board. Yet why are no mainstream journalists curious about this?
NB// IPCC SR15 “Extreme Weather” report made no mention of Tornadoes. Nor, the mainstream media!
GLOBAL WEATHER DISASTERS / LOSSES
GLOBAL weather disasters/losses as a percentage of global GDP are declining as CO₂ emissions rise.
THROUGH 7 months of 2018 weather disasters as % GDP were on record (low) pace…
NB// LOSS data does not include the two big CAT4’s that struck the US in 2018 – Florence (Sep) and Michael (Oct).
BIAS BY OMISSION
IN my opinion, the worst form of propaganda is ‘bias by omission’ – information and facts that you are ‘not’ told about, in order to keep the truth from you.
THE mainstream media has not and will not report the facts on “Extreme Weather”, as clearly laid out in the science and data above, because such facts are obviously extremely ‘inconvenient’ to their “catastrophic” man-made global warming narrative.
VITAL information central to the potential seriousness of climate change – Extreme Weather – has been purposely omitted by the mainstream media and replaced by emotions, alarmism and exaggerations in order to fit the climate-calamity narrative designed to scare you into belief and obedience.
THIS is why the
global warming climate change debate has become so dangerously deceptive and dishonest. Climate truths hidden from you and replaced with a narrative far more acceptable – Hollywood-style climate hysteria based on alarmism, increased sampling rates and overheated, CO2-centric climate models that do not accord with observed reality.
DID not see either of these instructive graphs painted on a placards at any of the kiddie climate rallies last Friday. Guess they don’t fit their ‘catastrophic’ climate narrative…
PERHAPS the climate kids would have been wise to read and learn the words of H.L. Mencken, before being forced out by their parents and teachers to act as standard bearers of new radical eco-socialism, protected by ‘innocence’ and lack of age :
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.” – H.L. Mencken
“Warming fears are the worst scientific scandal in the history. When people come to
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical
“I am no longer reading this garbage” – “Similar claims are on par with the spam about penis enlargement” – Former Harvard U. Physicist, Luboš Motl rejects new UN IPCC Report
EXTREME WEATHER, the Climate Crisis Industries favoured weapon of mass hysteria has been scuttled, once again, by their very own authority, the UN IPCC!
THE latest report finding that there is “little basis or evidence” for claiming that drought, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes have increased due to greenhouse gases.
BUT, alas! Just as the extreme weather findings from last IPCC report – AR5 (2013) – were conveniently dismissed by the mainstream media and climate crusaders, so too will the latest ‘inconvenient’ findings from the SR15 ‘Special Report’.
FROM Chapter 4 of SREX (2013) :
- “There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change”
- “The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados”
- “The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses”
IPCC REPORT SR15 – Extreme Weather Findings
EXTREME WEATHER DATA
IN August 1934, when CO2 was at ‘safe’ levels, severe to extreme drought covered around 80% of the entire US. Such conditions endured for most of the decade known as the “Dust Bowl” era:
CURRENT U.S. drought conditions under Donald Trump’s reign of climate “denial” terror:
global warming climate change scare has absolutely nothing to do with the environment or “Saving The Planet”. Rather, its roots lie in a misanthropic agenda engineered by the environmental movement of the mid 1970’s, who realised that doing something about claimed man-made “global warming” would play to quite a number of the Left’s social agendas.
IN THEIR (IPCC) OWN WORDS:
ENERGY rationing and the control of carbon dioxide, the direct byproduct of cheap, reliable hydrocarbon energy, has always been key to the Left’s Malthusian and misanthropic agenda of depopulation and deindustrialisation. A totalitarian ideology enforced through punitive emissions controls under the guise of “Saving The Planet”.
STANFORD University and The Royal Society’s resident global warming alarmist and population freak Paul R. Ehrlich spelled out in 1976 the Left’s anti-energy agenda that still underpins the current ‘climate change’ scare :
THE creator, fabricator and proponent of global warming alarmism Maurice Strong, founded UNEP and ‘science’ arm, the UN IPCC, under the premise of studying only human (CO2) driven causes of climate change.
STRONG and the UN’s charter and agenda was clearly laid out before the ‘science’ of climate change was butchered and tortured to fit the global warming narrative…
“Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsiblity to bring that about?” – Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
“Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.” – Maurice Strong, Rio Earth Summit
“It is the responsibility of each human being today to choose between the force of darkness and the force of light. We must therefore transform our attitudes, and adopt a renewed respect for the superior laws of Divine Nature.“ – Maurice Strong, first Secretary General of UNEP
FORMER Australian PM Julia Gillard, who implemented Australia’s ruinous and politically destructive 2011 carbon tax, was open in expressing its core function to ‘drive substantial changes in patterns of energy production and energy use.’
THE climate fix was in from the start, and now we’re paying for it, big time, in the form of unreliable energy, skyrocketing power bills, energy poverty, economic ruin and death…
STATE OF THE CLIMATE
CLIMATE catastrophists blame humans and their use of fossil fuels for the purported destruction of climate with “tipping points” and “runaway global warming” some of the emotional descriptors driving the narrative.
LET’S check out the most well known environmental metrics used by the Climate Crisis Industry to push their global warming scare and see exactly what damage fossil fuels and harmless byproduct CO2 are doing to Gaia…
ANTARCTICA, the ‘inconvenient’ pole, the naughty child, has been gaining ice mass and cooling for decades, despite a 20 per cent increase in atmospheric CO2, and model predictions to the contrary.
From the abstract :
Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact sea-level rise as climate changes, but recent rates have been uncertain. Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a−1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a−1.
SEE more :
OVER the past decade, the Arctic has seen a large increase in multi-year, thick sea-ice.
INCONVENIENT : EF2-5 Tornadoes are decreasing in frequency and intensity as “carbon pollution” increases…
By Paul Homewood
As I’ve often commented, NOAA keep insisting on publishing charts of total tornado numbers, even though they know full well that these numbers are grossly misleading, and simply reflect the fact that more tornadoes get to be reported these days.
As McCarthy & Schaefer pointed out in their paper, “TORNADO TRENDS OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS”:
NOAA themselves state:
To illustrate the reality, let’s first look at EF-0 trends.
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“WHERE are they this year?
This year has been possibly the quietest tornado season in recorded history. Kansas and Oklahoma would expect to see close to 19 tornadoes between the start of the year and now, with around 13 or 14 in April alone.
But this April, there hasn’t been one!”
Mother Nature, flipping the bird at garbage-in-garbage-out climate models and the extreme weather parrots!
In a twist that would ruin the storyline to the Wizard of Oz, the USA’s ‘Tornado Alley’ has been strangely quiet this year, says BBC Weather.
In fact, if there are none reported in Oklahoma or Kansas on Thursday, 2018 will officially be the quietest start to the tornado season in both states …on record!
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CLIMATE sceptics have been consistently pointing to data rather than superstition, politics and emotion in order to examine the contentious relationship between human CO2 emissions and
global warming climate change.
Climate alarmists will frequently default to the “extreme weather” narrative in order to deceptively promote the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) narrative by instilling fear, doom and gloom directly into the human psyche.
However, by most metrics, the data shows us that extreme weather events are becoming ‘less’ extreme as CO2 increases.
Professor Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado Boulder: “The world is presently in an era of unusually low weather disasters. This holds for the weather phenomena that have historically caused the most damage: tropical cyclones, floods, tornadoes and drought. Given how weather events have become politicized in debates over climate change, some find this hard to believe…
The US has seen a decrease of about 20% in both hurricane frequency and intensity at landfall since 1900…
Data on floods, drought and tornadoes are similar in that they show little to no indication of becoming more severe or frequent…
Thus, it is fair to conclude that the costs of disasters worldwide is depressed because, as the global economy has grown, disaster costs have not grown at the same rate. Thus, disaster costs as a proportion of GDP have decreased. One important reason for this is a lack of increase in the weather events that cause disasters, most notably, tropical cyclones worldwide and especially hurricanes in the United States.”
Why has this occurred? Is it good luck, climate change or something else?
A good place to start is with tropical cyclones, given that they are often the most costly weather events to occur each year. The figure below shows global tropical cyclone landfalls from 1990 through 2016. These are the storms that cause the overwhelming majority of property damage. Since 1990 there has been a reduction of about 3 landfalling storms per year (from ~17 to ~14), which certainly helps to explain why disaster losses are somewhat depressed.
Even more striking is the extended period in the United States, which has the most exposure to tropical cyclone damage, without the landfall of an intense hurricane. The figure below shows the number of days between each landfall of a Category 3+ hurricane in the US, starting in 1900. As of this writing the tally is approaching 4500 days, which is a streak of good fortune not seen in the historical record.
See Also :
- The Great “Extreme Weather” Climate Change Propaganda Con | Climatism
- Despite NOAA denial, growing number of new studies confirm global warming hiatus | Climatism
NOAA TORNADO LIES: Another solid example of why government climate agencies like NOAA, NASA, CSIRO, BoM, MetOffice – run by a handful of activist administrators, are the last places to hear or read the truth on “global warming” aka “climate change”.
“The bottom line is that the NOAA headline graph is grossly dishonest. Indeed, if a company published something like that in their Annual Accounts, they would probably end up in jail!
NOAA themselves know all of this full well.
Which raises the question – why are they perpetuating this fraud?”
Read all of the excellent deconstruction of yet more NOAA fraud via Paul Homewood here…
By Paul Homewood
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes has been steadily growing since the 1950s, despite a drop in numbers in the last five years.
They show the above chart prominently in their Tornadoes – Annual 2016 Report.
However, they know full well that it is meaningless to compare current data with the past, as they explain themselves in the section Historical Records and Trends, which is hidden away on their own website:
One of the main difficulties with tornado records is that a tornado, or evidence of a tornado must have been observed. Unlike rainfall or temperature, which may be measured by a fixed instrument, tornadoes are short-lived and very unpredictable. If a tornado occurs in a place with few or no people, it is not likely to be documented. Many significant tornadoes may not make it into the historical record since Tornado Alley was…
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While climate campaigners hope for a big El Nino this year, and wish for more hurricanes to use for ridiculous “poisoned weather” headlines, the reality is that we are in a hurricane drought, not just in the USA, but globally as well.
Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue points out the current situation in one simple and elegant graph which sums up the slump in activity:
5-year running sum of number of global tropical cyclones (1970-2015)
Stuck at 400 — lowest in this 45-year record.
This is backed up by data compiled by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.:
Meanwhile, it has been a record long drought for Cat3 or greater landfalling hurricanes in the USA. This graph shows the number of days from the last Cat3 Hurricane to make…
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