RSS Confirm 2016 Is Tied With 1998 As Warmest Year

“The fact that there has been no warming for the last 18 years is a massive blow to the credibility of climate science.”

2016 tied with 1998. Therefore if all things in the climate system are equal, this would suggest that climate sensitivity to CO2 is zero! Perhaps even negative considering a third of all human emissions since 1750 have been emitted over the past 18 years – with zero warming to show.

Add to this, La Niña has not even kicked in yet. A rough 2017/18 ahead for the global warming faithful.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

RSS have also now released their temperature data for December, which, as with UAH, shows a big drop from the month before.

Annually, RSS co9me to the same conclusion as UAH, that 2016 was 0.02C warmer than 1998.

image

As Roy Spencer has pointed out, the margin of error is 0.1C, so statistically 2016 is tied with 1998 as the warmest year in the satellite record.

The fact that there has been no warming for the last 18 years is a massive blow to the credibility of climate science.

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Stunning Drop In Global Temperatures As El Niño Warming Ends

Record Drop in Global Temp 11.2016.jpg

Record Drop In Global Temperatures As El Nino Warming Ends | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

 

The controversial global warming aka climate changehiatus/pause”, lingering like a bad smell to climate alarmists for nearly two decades, is back in play with a record drop in global temperatures since the middle of the year.

Temperatures are heading south rapidly. The latest huge drop despite record and increasing CO2 emissions.

Must be nearing revision time for the theory of Catastrophic Global Warming with regards to CO2-sensitivity?

•••

Via GWPF :

(Bolds added by Climatism)

RECORD DROP IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AS EL NINO WARMING ENDS

  • Date: 27/11/16
  • David Rose, Mail on Sunday

Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record. According to satellite data, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.

The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end.

The fall, revealed by Nasa satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, has been caused by the end of El Nino – the warming of surface waters in a vast area of the Pacific west of Central America.

Some scientists, including Dr Gavin Schmidt, head of Nasa’s climate division, have claimed that the recent highs were mainly the result of long-term global warming.

Others have argued that the records were caused by El Nino, a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years, and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans.

The new fall in temperatures suggests they were right.

Big El Ninos always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Nino was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.

It has now been replaced by a La Nina event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal.

This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.

The satellite measurements over land respond quickly to El Nino and La Nina. Temperatures over the sea are also falling, but not as fast, because the sea retains heat for longer. 

This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.

But it is almost certain that next year, large falls will also be measured over the oceans, and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Nino in 1998. If so, some experts will be forced to eat their words.

Last year, Dr Schmidt said 2015 would have been a record hot year even without El Nino.

‘The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,’ he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.

Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Ninos.

But on its website home page yesterday, Nasa featured a new study which said there was a hiatus in global warming before the recent El Nino, and discussed why this was so. Last night Dr Schmidt had not returned a request for comment.

However, both his own position, and his Nasa division, may be in jeopardy. US President-elect Donald Trump is an avowed climate change sceptic, who once claimed it was a hoax invented by China.

Last week, Mr Trump’s science adviser Bob Walker said he was likely to axe Nasa’s $1.9 billion (about £1.4 billion) climate research budget.

Other experts have also disputed Dr Schmidt’s claims. Professor Judith Curry, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said yesterday: ‘I disagree with Gavin. The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino.’

The slowdown in warming was, she added, real, and all the evidence suggested that since 1998, the rate of global warming has been much slower than predicted by computer models – about 1C per century.

David Whitehouse, a scientist who works with Lord Lawson’s sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the massive fall in temperatures following the end of El Nino meant the warming hiatus or slowdown may be coming back.

‘According to the satellites, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino. 

The data clearly shows El Nino for what it was – a short-term weather event,’ he said.

Record Drop In Global Temperatures As El Nino Warming Ends | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

•••

NASA and NOAA will be tweaking their heads and data-sets overtime in order to declare 2016 as “The Hottest Year Evah”. Possibly too late in the year to wipe out this years “Super El niño”.

•••

UPDATE

Further analysis from Paul Homewood’s excellent site Not A Lot Of People Know That :

Rose uses satellite data for his graph, but the NOAA surface data for land also gives a stark picture:

noaa-temps

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

Even NOAA admit that October was by far the coldest over land since 2001, despite the fact that are we still awaiting the start of La Nina.

It is also becoming increasingly apparent that this year’s El Nino event is the strongest one at least for the last 60 years, more powerful than 1983/3 and 1997/8.

Whilst it has not peaked quite as high, it has been much more longer lasting.

ENSO.png

Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)

Global Land Temperatures Plummet In October | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

Related :


Study: Tropical Hotspot ‘Fingerprint’ Of Global Warming Doesn’t Exist In The Real World Data

But the (missing) “Hotspot” exists in junk-in, junk-out computer models, which are apparently evidence enough to justify the destruction of capitalism, and the spending of trillions of taxpayers $£€¥ on useless schemes and scams in a hubristic attempt to control the weather and halt an increment of (modelled) warning that, most probably, would be beneficial to humanity.

The “Missing Hotspot” IMHO is one of the most important (missing) pieces of the global warming aka climate change debate…

No Hotspot = Global Warming theory fail.

https://climatism.wordpress.com/2014/01/28/the-missing-hot-spot/

Watts Up With That?

One of the main lines of evidence used by the Obama administration to justify its global warming regulations doesn’t exist in the real world, according to a new report by climate researchers.

evans_wellmixed_hotspot What the tropical hotspot is supposed to look like. Graphic courtesy Dr. David Evans

Guest essay by Michael Bastasch, reprinted with permission

Researchers analyzed temperature observations from satellites, weather balloons, weather stations and buoys and found the so-called “tropical hotspot” relied upon by the EPA to declare carbon dioxide a pollutant “simply does not exist in the real world.”

They found that once El Ninos are taken into account, “there is no ‘record setting’ warming to be concerned about.”

“These analysis results would appear to leave very, very little doubt but that EPA’s claim of a Tropical Hot Spot (THS), caused by rising atmospheric CO2 levels, simply does not exist in the real world,” reads the report…

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Arctic sea ice melt has turned the corner

That “Ice-Free Arctic” we were promised, on ice for yet another year… ❄️

Watts Up With That?

I almost called this yesterday, but I needed more data to be sure. All of the data I’ve looked at agrees, Arctic sea ice is now on the upswing, and in a big way.

Here is the plot from NSIDC:

n_stddev_timeseries-9-13-16

This graph from Wipneus shows the abruptness of the change:

amsr2-area-all-cmpare

And the physics of ice is also a dead giveaway. Here, the Arctic temperature shows a dramatic upswing.

meant_2016-09-13-16

This is why: when water freezes it releases its specific latent heat.

The specific latent heat is the amount of energy required to convert 1 kg (or 1 lb) of a substance from solid to liquid (or vice-versa) without a change in the temperature of the surroundings — all absorbed energy goes into the phase change — is known as the specific latent heat of fusion.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_heat#Specific_latent_heat

For water, that’s about 334 KiloJoules of energy per kilogram.

Added: Note that in the…

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Understanding The “Hottest Year Evah”

I believe it is appropriate to have an ‘over-representation’ of the facts
on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience
.”
– Al Gore,
Climate Change activist

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

The Earth has cancer
and the cancer is Man
.”
– Club of Rome,
premier environmental think-tank,
consultants to the United Nations

Global Warming Hype.jpg

Global Warming activists routinely parrot the infamous “Hottest Year Ever” meme.

However, this depends entirely on which temperature data set is cited:

NASA’s ‘GISS’ temp uses land and ocean-based thermometers which measure “different parts of the system [UHI affected parking lots, asphalt heat sinks, AC exhaust air vents], different signal to noise ratio [we bias toward warm stations], different structural uncertainty [we ‘homogenise’ our data set to cool the past and warm the present to fit the global warming narrative].NASA GISS Gavin Schmidt’s admission about the satellite record versus the surface temperature record (square bracket add-ons by Climatism)

Then there are the much more accurate and comprehensive satellite measurement systems, RSS/UAH, which measure 24/7 the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower troposphere – the exact place where global warming is meant to occur, according to the theory.

There is a growing divergence between NASA’s (land-based) GISS temp and RSS (lower troposphere) satellite temps since 2000:

nasa-giss-vs-rss-satellite

Gavin’s New Site | Real Science

The growing divergence between NASA’s GISS and RSS satellite data sets, since 2000, didn’t used to be so stark.

So why the obvious temp divergence, post 2000, after near exact correlation from 1979?

Before 2016 El Niño :

rss-v-giss-divergence

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Current RSS v GISS :

RSS v GISS divergence post 2000.png

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Tony Heller of Real Climate Scienceamongst many other heroic climate realists, have spent thousands of unpaid hours explaining why NASA’s data set has been corrupted by 1. UHI and 2. ‘Cooling the past and warming the present.'(data manipulation) to fit the global warming narrative.

UHI (Urban Heat Island effect):

All Warming In NSW And Victoria Is Due To UHI

I did a survey of the ten oldest stations in New South Wales And Victoria, circled below. Three rural stations were not included because of obvious problems with the data, but none showed any warming.

MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE              ASN00086071
DENILIQUIN (WILKINSON ST)              ASN00074128
BATHURST GAOL                          ASN00063004
SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL)              ASN00066062
CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE          GSN     ASN00090015
BOURKE POST OFFICE                     ASN00048013
WAGGA WAGGA (KOORINGAL)                ASN00072151
FORBES (CAMP STREET)                   ASN00065016
INVERELL COMPARISON                    ASN00056017
GUNNEDAH POOL                          ASN00055023

ScreenHunter_3589 Oct. 11 08.55

The two urban stations at Melbourne and Sydney both showed strong warming, and both have disastrously poor siting of their thermometers in the middle of large cities.

ScreenHunter_3552 Oct. 11 07.59ScreenHunter_3566 Oct. 11 08.22

By contrast, all of the rural stations show a long term cooling trend, with some recent warming. (Note that there is no data for the most recent years with some of the rural stations.)

ScreenHunter_3563 Oct. 11 08.17ScreenHunter_3558 Oct. 11 08.11

ScreenHunter_3570 Oct. 11 08.28ScreenHunter_3574 Oct. 11 08.34

ScreenHunter_3582 Oct. 11 08.47

The only conclusion which can be derived from this is that Australia has not warmed long-term, and that BOM claims of record temperatures are due to UHI and/or data tampering.

For all GHCN stations in Australia, there is no net warming since 1880

ScreenHunter_3512 Oct. 11 05.31

Satellites temperature measurement systems, UAH/RSS, are not polluted with asphalt, car parks, AC exhausts or human development, which is probably why they show no statistically significant global warming, at all, for nearly two decades :

UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2016_v6-550x318.jpg

LATEST GLOBAL TEMPS – UAH SATELLITE – ROY SPENCER – Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD

rss-from-1979

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

UPDATE April, 2 2017

Current RSS Satellite temp data…

(Note record temp drop post 2016 El nino. Confirmed by UK Met office.)

Screen Shot 2017-04-02 at , April 2, 3.44.30 PM.png

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

On the other hand, NASA’s climate change activist-in-chief, Gavin Schmidt’s GISS temp measures; asphalt, car parks, AC exhausts and human development :

From WUWT :

How not to measure temperature (or climate change) #96

From the “global warming data looks better with heat-sinks and air conditioners” department.

Dr. Mark Albright, of the University of Washington writes:

Here is a great example of how NOT to measure the climate! On our way back to Tucson from Phoenix on Monday we stopped by to see the Picacho 8 SE coop site at Picacho Peak State Park. Note the white MMTS temperature monitor 1/3 of the way in from the left. The building is surrounded by the natural terrain of the Sonoran Desert, but instead the worst possible site adjacent to the paved road and SW facing brick wall was chosen in 2009 as the location to monitor temperature.

Here is a view looking Northeast:

Picacho8SE-looking-NE

For an aerial view in google maps:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/32°38’45.9%22N+111°24’06.9%22W/@32.6461088,-111.4018201,111m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0?hl=en

The NCEI HOMR metadata repository tells us:
COMPATABLE EQUIPMENT MOVE 55 FEET DUE WEST. EQUIPMENT MOVED 05/06/2009. (that is when the new state park visitor center was built)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/homr/#ncdcstnid=20001376&tab=MISC

Additional photos:

Picacho8SE-looking-E

Note the air conditioner heat exchangers within a few feet of the MMTS sensor:Picacho8SE-looking-NPicacho8SE-looking-NWPicacho8SE-looking-SE


 

Picacho 8 SE has it all: brick building, parking lot, road, and air conditioner heat exchangers within a few feet of the MMTS sensor.

This one takes the cake, and I think it is worse than our former worst-case USHCN station (now closed) located in a parking lot in Tucson at the University of Arizona:

Tucson-USHCN

 

•••

And here’s the resulting UHI-polluted graph from NASA :

Screen Shot 2016-09-08 at , September 8, 3.32.05 PM.png

Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Analysis Graphs and Plots

•••

Outside of how to accurately measure the earth’s atmosphere to detect the supposed anthropogenic global warming signal, there is a mountain of damning evidence relating to the fraudulent tampering of the global temperature record by climate activist government agencies – NASA and NOAA.

I highly recommend visiting Tony Heller’s site “Real Climate Science” for a comprehensive understanding of the blatant manipulation of NASA’s GISS temp data set to fit the global warming narrative.

Some examples via Tony Heller of NASA ‘cooling the past and warming the present’:

NASA has massively altered their global temperature data over the past 15 years, to double global warming:

NASA GISS FRAUD.gif

A Closer Look At GISS Temperature Fraud | Real Science

The animated image below shows the changes which Dr. Hansen made to the historical US temperature record after the year 1999. He cooled the 1930s, and warmed the 1980s and 1990s. The year 1998 went from being more than half a degree cooler than 1934, to warmer than 1934:

NASA US temp adjustment.gif

Spectacularly Poor Climate Science At NASA | Real Science

NASA didn’t like the 1940’s warmth in Iceland, so they simply erased it:

The Arctic warming from 1910 to 1940 completely wrecks the alarmist’s story. Fortunately for them, they control the NASA and NOAA data and can tamper with it any way they want to produce data which matches their theory.

They are constantly cooling the past in Iceland, with their latest handiwork shown below.

Reykjavik

Original version : Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

Most recent tampering : Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

What they can’t tamper with is the written record of eyewitnesses.

ScreenHunter_151 Aug. 12 16.38

18 Feb 1952 – POLAR ICE THAW INCREASING GLACIERS SAID TO [?] M…

ScreenHunter_152 Aug. 12 16.41

31 May 1947 – TEMPERATURES RISING IN ARCTIC REGION LOS ANGELES…

•••

See also :

Related :

NASA Data Fraud Related :

Australia Massaged Adjustment / UHI Related :


Global Surface Temperature Anomalies Should Be Higher In 2016 Than 2015

Global surface temperatures should be higher every year as “CO2” massively increases year to year.

But the current ~ 20 year ‘global warming’ stasis suggests otherwise.

Ergo, trace gas and plant food, CO2, sounds like the perfect patsy to control you, your energy use and every other critical aspect of your life that requires …. energy aka CO2.

Getting it now?

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale

This post confirms what most of us suspect based on the history of global surface temperature data responses to strong El Niño events. That is, if global surface temperatures respond similarly to past strong El Niños, the 2016 values should be higher than 2015.

TABLE OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING EVOLUTION AND DECAY YEARS OF STRONG EL NIÑOS, AND THEIR DIFFERENCE

Table 1 lists the global temperature anomalies from GISS, NOAA NCEI and UKMO for the evolution and decay years, and their differences, during the eight strong El Niño events of 1957/58, 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1987/88, 1991/92, 1997/98, and 2009/10. I’ve also listed the 2015 values for the 2015/16 El Niño. For this discussion, I’ve defined a strong El Niño as one where the peak NOAA Oceanic NINO Index value equals or exceeds 1.5 deg C. The annual global temperature anomaly values are as provided by…

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The planet cools as El Niño disappears

Watts Up With That?

UAH Global Temperature Update for May, 2016: +0.55 deg. C

June 1st, 2016 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

NOTE: This is the fourteenth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here. Note we are now at “beta5” for Version 6, and the paper describing the methodology is still in peer review.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May, 2016 is +0.55 deg. C, down 0.16 deg. C from the April value of +0.71 deg. C (click for full size version):

UAH_LT_1979_thru_May_2016_v6

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 17 months are:

YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS
2015 01 +0.30 +0.44 +0.15 +0.13
2015 02 +0.19 +0.34 +0.04 -0.07
2015 03 +0.18 +0.28 +0.07 +0.04
2015 04 +0.09 +0.19 -0.01 +0.08
2015 05 +0.27 +0.34 +0.20…

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