MORE on the shock, global warming “pause” paper from warmists Santer, Mann et al !
via PA Pundits…
UPDATE via Climatism:
MAKE NO MISTAKE. This paper is massive. It basically reaffirms what climate sceptics (“Deniers”) have been stating for years – that despite record CO2 emissions over the past 20 years, there has been NO statistically significant global warming over this period.
There is a catastrophic problem with the UN’s billion dollar CMIP5 climate models that essentially drive the $trillion global warming industry. They are grossly overheated, leading to the panic, hysteria and fake news seen daily on the topic.
Something other than CO2 must be driving the climate. And The Godfather’s of global warming doom and gloom – Ben Santer and Mikey (hockey stick) Mann et al have released this *scientific* paper supporting the sceptical notion of a lower CO2 sensitivity than perceived by the “97%”.
It is being touted in the sceptic community as “Black Monday” owing to the release day.
Surely, this paper spells the beginning of the end for the greatest and most costly scientific fraud ever perpetrated upon mankind.
By Andrew Bolt ~
Even leading alarmist Ben Santer, lead author of a paper in Nature Geoscience, now admits the world isn’t warming as predicted by global warming models. Even Michael Mann, who produced the infamous hockey stick, has put his name to this paper.
From the abstract:
In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble.
The problem is the models on which the global warming scare is based were simply wrong:
We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.
James Delingpole describes Santer’s colorful history in the climate wars since he was outed in the Climategate scandal.
John Christy, who collects satellite temperature data…
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GWPF Science Editor Dr David Whitehouse takes a close look at some recent developments in the long-running global temperature ‘pause’ controversy.
A new paper has been published in the Analysis section of Nature called Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus.’ It confirms that the ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’ is real. It is also rather revealing.
It attempts to explain the ‘Pause’ by looking into what is known about climate variability. They say that four years after the release of the IPCC AR5 report, which contained much about the ‘hiatus’ it is time to see what can be learned.
One could be a little sarcastic in saying why would Nature devote seven of its desirable pages to an event that some vehemently say never existed and maintain its existence has been disproved long ago.
Now, however, as the El Nino spike of the past few years levels off, analysing the…
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“The gap between observations and models persists. The observed trend deviated by as much as −0.17 °C per decade from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5; ref. 19) ensemble-mean projection1—a gap two to four times the observed trend.
The hiatus therefore continues to challenge climate science.”
– Nature Climate Change (PEER-REVIEWED STUDY)
“This paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.
That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.”
The “pause/hiatus” in Global Warming is now nearing 20 YEARS. This despite *record* man-made CO2 emitted over the same period.
Don’t be at all surprised if – CNN, BBC, ABC, CNBC, LATimes, NYTimes, WaPo, The Age, SMH and the rest of the “climate change” obsessed sycophant media don’t report this massively inconvenient climate news. – Too many reputations, jobs, govt grants and funding are now at stake.
The “uncertainty monster” strikes again
We’ve been highly critical for some time of the paper in summer 2015 by Karl et al. that claimed “the pause” or hiatus went away once “properly adjusted” ocean surface temperature data was applied to the global surface temperature dataset. Virtually everyone in the climate skeptic community considers Karl et al. little more than a sleight of hand.
No matter, this paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.
That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.
Also of note, see the offset as designated…
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The warmist Met office’s latest hadCRUT4 data shows global temps are back down to 1997 levels, closely matching sat temps. Therefore the extremely inconvenient “Pause” or “Hiatus” can now be tracked for a period going on 20 years, despite *record* CO2 emissions over the same period. Not at all what we were promised by experts. The scam is over. The theory is bust.
The increasing rate of the global mean surface temperature was reduced from 1998 to 2013, known as the global warming hiatus, or pause.
Researchers have devoted much effort to the understanding of the cause, reports Phys.org. The proposed mechanisms include the internal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, ocean heat uptake and redistribution, and many others.
However, scientists also want to understand the atmospheric footprint of the recent warming hiatus as the dynamical and physical processes remain unclear.
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“(NOAA) breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it published the sensational but flawed report, aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.”
In 1960, Eisenhower foresaw the possibility of a criminal like Tom Karl of NOAA corrupting science….
“The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocation, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.
Yet in holding scientific discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”
– President Eisenhower 1960
“The fact that there has been no warming for the last 18 years is a massive blow to the credibility of climate science.”
2016 tied with 1998. Therefore if all things in the climate system are equal, this would suggest that climate sensitivity to CO2 is zero! Perhaps even negative considering a third of all human emissions since 1750 have been emitted over the past 18 years – with zero warming to show.
Add to this, La Niña has not even kicked in yet. A rough 2017/18 ahead for the global warming faithful.
By Paul Homewood
RSS have also now released their temperature data for December, which, as with UAH, shows a big drop from the month before.
Annually, RSS co9me to the same conclusion as UAH, that 2016 was 0.02C warmer than 1998.
As Roy Spencer has pointed out, the margin of error is 0.1C, so statistically 2016 is tied with 1998 as the warmest year in the satellite record.
The fact that there has been no warming for the last 18 years is a massive blow to the credibility of climate science.
“It’s the flavor of the season: how outraged you manage to be is proof how wrong/evil your opponent is.”
“The same establishment makes a deafening racket every time there is an El Niño. In fact, climate activists actively hope for El Niño warm periods so they can hyperventilate about ‘record temperatures’ and advance their policy goals.”
Excellent post demonstrating the vicious rage emanating from climate change alarmists following the recent *record* drop in global temperatures!
As usual, the Left using the 101 tactic of – “Playing the man (Breitbart/Dellers), rather than the ball (evidence)”.
This is more evidence for mine that “Global Warming” aka “Climate Change” is the ultimate social(ist) issue that plays to many of the Left’s elitist agendas – power, control, money, virtue and misanthropy. After all, shouldn’t “Global Warming” alarmists be celebrating and cheering the *record* drop in global temps?! (albeit expected after a super El Niño).
The US House Science committee tweeted a link to a James Delingpole article on the drop in atmospheric temperatures of the Na Nina that is underway.
Look at the climate alarmist and intelligentsia response:
Science writer Deborah Blum:
The articulate British scientist Doug McNeall:
PhD scientist Bob Ward:
Former journalist Leo Hickman:
Climate activist ‘Climate Truth’
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