TO whom it may concern,
CC: Josh Frydenberg (Australian Minister for the Environment & Energy)
Last year I contacted you in regards to updating 7 years of missing tropical cyclone data on the BoM record.
August 16, 2017
I have been a keen observer of weather and climate for well over a climate point (42 years)!
The chaotic system of climate and “climate change” is ever fascinating. Though, today the ‘chaos’ has been replaced by an unhealthy polarization of “the science”, all too often determined by belief, politics and ideology. Sadly, dogma has trumped empirical evidence, corrupting the scientific method.
That said, I am seeking from you an updated version of the cyclone trends graph which ends at 2011. The BoM site has excellent data up to 2017 to complete the series. Is there a reason why the data has not been translated to the current graph? I would be happy to work on getting it up to date if resources are limited!
As a start, there is a written record from 2012-2015 here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/index.shtml
Jamie Spry (Melbourne, Australia)
TO your credit, communication was swift and missing data promptly updated to 2016/17:
I write to you today seeking access to valuable historical information you once had on your website pertaining to historical “extremes”, namely the devastating 7 year “Federation Drought” 1895-1902…
THE page is no longer available:
ORIGINAL content of Australia’s important climate change history has been thankfully saved in the WayBackMachine and sent to me by Apafarkas Agmánd:
Drought. The word evokes images of barren fields, dying stock, and water holes and reservoirs drying to cracked mud. Shrivelled hopes, failed crops, and often economic ruin are its trademarks.
Drought is also part and parcel of life in Australia, particularly in the marginal areas away from the better-watered coasts and ranges. Of all the climatic phenomena to afflict Australia, drought is probably the most economically costly: major droughts such as that of 1982/83 can have a major impact on the national economy. Moreover, apart from crop failure and stock losses, droughts set the scene for other disastrous phenomena, such as fires, dust-storms, and general land degradation.
Denuded earth and dry watercourses during drought near Gunnedah, in the normally well-watered Namoi Valley region of New South Wales (photo courtesy of the NSW Dept of Land and Water Conservation).
Why is Australia drought prone?
Australia is prone to drought because of its geography. Our continent sits more or less astride the latitudes of the subtropical high pressure belt, an area of sinking, dry, stable air and usually clear skies. The far north and south of the country come under the influence of reasonably regular rain-bearing disturbances for at least part of the year, and the east coast is watered reasonably well by moisture from the Tasman and Coral Seas. However over most of the country rainfall is not only low, but highly erratic.
Many, but by no means all, droughts over eastern and northern Australia accompany the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, which typically lasts about a year, as in 1982/83. Droughts in the western areas and over much of the interior normally have different causes. Nevertheless, on some occasions (such as 1914 and 1994) El Niño-related droughts may extend across virtually the entire country. On such occasions, the economic and livestock losses are exacerbated
Hand-feeding sheep in western New South Wales during the extended drought in Queensland and New South Wales during the 1990s
(photo c/o the Fairfax Photo Library).
Over much of the country, droughts can extend over several years, relieved only by brief, transitory rains. Indeed, probably the most damaging type of drought is when one or two very dry years follow several years of generally below-average rainfall. The “Federation drought” of the late 1890s through 1902 is an example, as is the more recent 1991-95 drought in Queensland, northern New South Wales and parts of central Australia. Over still longer time-scales, Australia’s rainfall history features several periods of a decade or longer that seem to have been distinctly “drought prone”. For instance, the mid to late 1920s and the 1930s were a period of generally low rainfall over most of the country, continuing through most of the 1940s over the eastern states. A similar dry spell occurred in the 1960s over central and eastern Australia. During these low rainfall periods, not every year is dry; it is just that rainfall in most years is below the long-term average, and there are often runs of years with recurrent drought. Thus in the late 1930s-40s major droughts occurred over eastern Australia in 1937-38, 1940-41, and 1943-45.
The 1990s saw formal Government acknowledgement that drought is part of the natural variability of the Australian climate, with drought relief for farmers and agricultural communities being restricted to times of so-called “exceptional circumstances”. In other words, the agricultural sector was expected to cope with the occasional drought, and relief would be available only for droughts of unusual length or severity.
AS Eastern Australia suffers through another awful drought, it is important that the public is educated into the causes of long-term drought such that appropriate action can be taken, as noted by the Australian Government in the 1990’s, “The 1990s saw formal Government acknowledgement that drought is part of the natural variability of the Australian climate, with drought relief for farmers and agricultural communities being restricted to times of so-called “exceptional circumstances”.
EDUCATION and understanding of the “land of sweeping plains,/Of ragged mountain ranges,/Of droughts and flooding rains.” helps to eliminate spurious claims of human-induced climate change as the cause of drought, all-too-often used by the mainstream media to push a political agenda or ideology.
SUCH wistful activism encouraging a misallocation of funds in a vain attempt to “stop” climate change with precious public money awarded to wind farm, solar panel corporations and power companies, rather than fund drought mitigation schemes (dams) and to aid farmers through tedious times that will always occur naturally, regardless of Australia or the world’s carbon dioxide output.
AN IMPORTANT and timely read Via The Times – MATT RIDLEY (Climatism bolds)
RECORD cold in America has brought temperatures as low as minus 44C in North Dakota, frozen sharks in Massachusetts and iguanas falling from trees in Florida. Al Gore blames global warming, citing one scientist to the effect that this is “exactly what we should expect from the climate crisis”. Others beg to differ: Kevin Trenberth, of America’s National Centre for Atmospheric Research, insists that “winter storms are a manifestation of winter, not climate change”.
Forty-five years ago a run of cold winters caused a “global cooling” scare. “A global deterioration of the climate, by order of magnitude larger than any hitherto experienced by civilised mankind, is a very real possibility and indeed may be due very soon,” read a letter to President Nixon in 1972 from two scientists reporting the views of 42 “top” colleagues. “The cooling has natural causes and falls within the rank of the processes which caused the last ice age.” The administration replied that it was “seized of the matter”.
In the years that followed, newspapers, magazines and television documentaries spoke of the coming ice age. The CIA reported a “growing consensus among leading climatologists that the world is undergoing a cooling trend”.
This alarm about global cooling is largely been forgotten, but it has not entirely gone away. Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University has suggested that a quiescent sun presages another Little Ice Age like that of 1300-1850. I’m not persuaded. Yet the argument that the world is slowly slipping back into a proper ice age after 10,000 years of balmy warmth is in essence true. Most interglacial periods, or times without large ice sheets, last about that long, and ice cores from Greenland show that each of the past three millennia was cooler than the one before.
However, those ice cores, and others from Antarctica, can now put our minds to rest. They reveal that interglacials start abruptly with sudden and rapid warming but end gradually with many thousands of years of slow and erratic cooling. They have also begun to clarify the cause. It is a story that reminds us how vulnerable our civilisation is. If we aspire to keep the show on the road for another 10,000 years, we will have to understand ice ages.
The oldest explanation for the coming and going of ice was based on carbon dioxide. In 1895 the Swede Svante Arrhenius, one of the scientists who first championed the greenhouse theory, suggested that the ice retreated because carbon dioxide levels rose, and advanced because they fell. If this were true, then industrial emissions could head off the next ice age. There is indeed a correlation in the ice cores between temperature and carbon dioxide, but inconveniently it is the wrong way round: carbon dioxide follows rather than leads temperature downward when the ice returns.
A Serbian named Milutin Milankovich, writing in 1941, argued that ice ages and interglacials were instead caused by changes in the orbit of the Earth around the sun. These changes, known as eccentricity, obliquity and precession, sometimes combined to increase the relative warmth of northern hemisphere summers, melting ice caps in North America and Eurasia and spreading warmth worldwide.
IN 1976 Nicholas Shackleton, a Cambridge physicist, and his colleagues published evidence from deep-sea cores of cycles in the warming and cooling of the Earth over the past half million years which fitted Milankovich’s orbital wobbles. Precession, which decides whether the Earth is closer to the sun in July or in January, is on a 23,000-year cycle; obliquity, which decides how tilted the axis of the Earth is and therefore how warm the summer is, is on a 41,000-year cycle; and eccentricity, which decides how rounded or elongated the Earth’s orbit is and therefore how close to the sun the planet gets, is on a 100,000-year cycle. When these combine to make a “great summer” in the north, the ice caps shrink.
Game, set and match to Milankovich? Not quite. The Antarctic ice cores, going back 800,000 years, then revealed that there were some great summers when the Milankovich wobbles should have produced an interglacial warming, but did not. To explain these “missing interglacials”, a recent paper in Geoscience Frontiers by Ralph Ellis and Michael Palmer argues we need carbon dioxide back on the stage, not as a greenhouse gas but as plant food.
The argument goes like this. Colder oceans evaporate less moisture and rainfall decreases. At the depth of the last ice age, Africa suffered long mega-droughts; only small pockets of rainforest remained. Crucially, the longer an ice age lasts, the more carbon dioxide is dissolved in the cold oceans. When the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere drops below 200 parts per million (0.02 per cent), plants struggle to grow at all, especially at high altitudes. Deserts expand. Dust storms grow more frequent and larger. In the Antarctic ice cores, dust increased markedly whenever carbon dioxide levels went below 200 ppm. The dust would have begun to accumulate on the ice caps, especially those of Eurasia and North America, which were close to deserts. Next time a Milankovich great summer came along, and the ice caps began to melt, the ice would have grown dirtier and dirtier, years of deposited dust coming together as the ice shrank. The darker ice would have absorbed more heat from the sun and a runaway process of collapsing ice caps would have begun.
All of human civilisation happened in an interglacial period, with a relatively stable climate, plentiful rainfall and high enough levels of carbon dioxide to allow the vigorous growth of plants. Agriculture was probably impossible before then, and without its hugely expanded energy supply, none of the subsequent flowering of human culture would have happened.
That interglacial will end. Today the northern summer sunshine is again slightly weaker than the southern. In a few tens of thousands of years, our descendants will probably be struggling with volatile weather, dust storms and air that cannot support many crops. But that is a very long way off, and by then technology should be more advanced, unless we prevent it developing. The key will be energy. With plentiful and cheap energy our successors could thrive even in a future ice age, growing crops, watering deserts, maintaining rainforests and even melting ice caps.
More Must Read Matt Ridley :
- WIND TURBINES Are Neither Clean Nor Green And They Provide Zero Global Energy | Climatism
- A Must Read : The Climate Wars’ Damage to Science | Climatism
- A must watch – Greening the Planet – Dr. Matt Ridley | Climatism
- THE TIMES : The sceptics are right. Don’t scapegoat them | Climatism
- Must Read : Matt Ridley – Why Nobody Ever Calls The Weather Normal
- Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change | Climatism
- A warming planet is helping humans | Climatism
MATT RIDLEY writes an excellent piece in The Times Of London that drills down into the ‘seeming good is more important than doing good’ sickness that has infected modern Western politics with perilous results…
Politics is obsessed with virtue signalling
From the climate accord to badger culling, we increasingly judge policies by intentions rather than achievements
Australian snowfields rejoice after ‘Blizzard of Oz’ turns slopes into winter wonderland
It’s been dubbed “the Blizzard of Oz”, and powder hounds could not be happier.
Australia’s ski resorts in the Snowy Mountains, in New South Wales, and Victoria’s Alpine National Park were covered with the white stuff this morning after both reported the best falls of the season at the weekend.
More than 1.15 metres of snow has been dumped at Thredbo from Friday morning to 6:00am today.
BUT, wasn’t ‘snowfall’ meant to be “a very rare and exciting event.” And, that “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” ?
Those expert predictions made back in 2000 by esteemed climatologist Dr David Viner of the UK’s CRU (Climate Research Unit):
From the Independent’s most cited article: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past” by Charles Onians:
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
THE Independent has since removed the article! The page used to look like this:
The original article:
Link now boots back to their homepage.
Our friends at WUWT have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:
In fairness, perhaps the good Dr Viner was
colluding consulting with the virtuous partners of climate catastrophe expertise – the UN IPCC who, as well, predicted diminished snowfalls as human CO2 increased…
Australia’s “premier” scientific government organisation, the (warmist) CSIRO, jumped on the “end of snow” bandwagon in August 2003:
Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…
The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).
The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths. At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…
We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.
(Page Not Found – LOL !)
BACK IN THE REAL WORLD
Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent is trending upwards, and 2017 was amongst the highest on record, despite rising CO2 emissions and the “Hottest Year Evah” thing:
AND as for the expert predictions of the CSIRO, who assured us of the end of snow by 2020/2030…
Australia’s snowfields have been overdosed by snow over the past decade.
In fact, SH snow extent is increasing as global CO2 rises – the exact opposite of what you were told by all those experts…
2016 – Extended season:
2017 – THE “Blizzard Of Oz” ! :
WHEN will those expert scientists, esteemed government agencies and respected mainstream media outlets who peddle the fake global warming catastrophe, spreading scientific falsehoods with impunity, be held to account? Or at least admit they got it wrong?
That “science” certainly ain’t “settled”.
UPDATE – August 8, 2017
Emergency services warn of avalanches in Victoria’s alpine region
EMERGENCY services have issued an avalanche warning for Victoria’s alpine region as tourists have been urged to avoid skiing, snowboarding, or hiking in remote areas.
Warmer weather and strong wind is expected to increase the risk of avalanches at Mt Bogong, mt feathertop, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Falls Creek today.
DO hope SMH’s (Fairfax media) resident global warming catastrophist Peter Hannam has received this alert, if he plans to visit Australia’s ski fields. The one’s that he and those expert scientists say won’t be around much longer thanks to you and your SUV…
Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope
August 5 – Last week’s fake news – Sydney Morning Herald
Australia’s ski resorts face the prospect of a long downhill run as a warming climate reduces snow depth, cover and duration. The industry’s ability to create artificial snow will also be challenged, scientists say.
UPDATE September 8 :
Perisher Ski Resorts elated with #BlizzardOfOz3…
More Than 130cm of Snow – Best in 17 years!
- EXTREME WEATHER Expert: “World Is Presently In An Era Of Unusually Low Weather Disasters” | Climatism
- The Great “Extreme Weather” Climate Change Propaganda Con | Climatism
- Understanding The “Hottest Year Evah” | Climatism
CSIRO Dud-Predictions Related :
- Why CSIRO and BoM Cannot Be Trusted On Anything “Climate Change” | Climatism
- CSIRO Censoring Their Own Climate Research | Climatism
- Wash-out: Warmist Bureau’s Drought Prediction Fail | Climatism
- The Science is Settled : “Children Just Aren’t Going To Know What Snow Is” | Climatism
- Aussie CSIRO Predicts the End of Wheat Yield Gains | Climatism
- Shock News 1923 : Meteorological Office Exists as a Corrective to Scare Mongering | Climatism
- How they tried to fool you about the rain | Herald Sun
- It’s Time To Declare War On Global Warming Extremists | Climatism
UN IPCC TAR 2001
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
AND YET we base trillions upon trillions of dollars of other peoples (your) money on Paris COP junkets to formulate “Save The Planet” policy, windmills and solar panels that are supposed to curb (man-made)
Global Warming Climate Change to below an arbitrary ‘2 degrees C’ by 2100.
Insanity by their very own words and deeds.
- Twelve Reasons Why The Paris Climate Talks Are A Total Waste | Climatism
- Paris COP21 : Much that passes as idealism is disguised hatred or disguised love of power | Climatism
- There Is No Climate Change Crisis | Climatism
- The Great “Extreme Weather” Climate Change Propaganda Con | Climatism
“A massive campaign must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States…De-development means bringing our economic system (especially patterns of consumption) into line with the realities of ecology and the global resource situation…Redistribution of wealth both within and among nations is absolutely essential, if a decent life is to be provided for every human being.” – John Holdren
If you’re relatively familiar with the climate “debate”, you will know that the rapid cooling period from the 1940’s to the 1970’s led to climate “experts” (climate scientists) declaring the end of life as we know it, in the form of the “Global Cooling” scare:
A few examples (And apologies if these sound all too familiar with the current
global warming climate change scare) :
1. In 1976 the CIA warned that (man-made) Global Cooling would bring – “Drought, Starvation, Social Unrest And Political Upheaval”:
2. The UN was so concerned about man-made Global Cooling during the 1970’s that they wanted to melt the Arctic by spreading black soot on it:
3. Our featured climate expert ‘John Holdren’ predicted and feared a new “Ice Age” during the 1970’s Global Cooling scare:
(Interestingly, the link to Holdren’s global cooling hysteria no longer exists)
Now time to introduce our second climate change “Expert” (UN climate scientist) – Dr Stephen Schneider…
Steve Schneider pleaded with President Nixon for funding in order to halt the feared Global Cooling crisis of the 1970’s:
Four years later (1981) Professor Stephen Schneider became a Global Warming alarmist:
Published: August 22, 1981
A team of Federal scientists says it has detected an overall warming trend in the earth’s atmosphere extending back to the year 1880. They regard this as evidence of the validity of the ”greenhouse” effect, in which increasing amounts of carbon dioxide cause steady temperature increases.
The seven atmospheric scientists predict a global warming of ”almost unprecedented magnitude” in the next century. It might even be sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of West Antarctica, they say, eventually leading to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea level. In that case, they say, it would ”flood 25 percent of Louisiana and Florida, 10 percent of New Jersey and many other lowlands throughout the world” within a century or less.
A leading participant in past carbon dioxide studies has been Dr. Stephen H. Schneider of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
And yes, nowadays, expert scientist John Holdren (Obama’s former science Czar), just like his comrade Professor Stephen Schneider, fears not man-made Global Cooling but Global Warming:
1997: John Holdren predicts ten degrees warming:
I don’t blame them for changing the name to “Climate Change” – covers all bases.
The perfect scam: Hot, cold, wet, dry, flood, drought, whatever – it’s all your fault…
1970′s Global Cooling Scare Related :
- Feds Alarmed By Global Cooling in 1974 | Climatism
- CIA 1974 National Security Threat : Global Cooling/Excess Arctic Ice Causing Extreme Weather | Real Science
- 1974 Shock News : CIA Said Global Warming Was A Good Thing | Real Science
- 1975 : Climatologists Wanted Permission To Melt The Arctic To Stop Disastrous Climate Change | Real Science
- 1972 : UN Scientists Wanted To Melt The Arctic By Spreading Soot On It | Real Science
- 1974 : NCAR Called Global Cooling The “New Norm” And Blamed Climate Disasters On It | Real Science
- 1970s Global Cooling Alarmism
- The New Crisis : The Same As The Old Crisis | Climatism
- 1922 US Government Shock News : Radical Change In Arctic Climate – Glaciers Gone | Climatism
- 1970s Global Cooling Scare | Real Science
- Every major climate organization endorsed the ice age scare, including NCAR, CRU, NAS, NASA – as did the CIA.
- 21 Jul 1976 – C.I.A. WARNING Changes to climate to bring upheaval
- Climate Change And Its Effect On World Food (1974)
- TIME – Weather – The Big Freeze
By Paul Homewood
There has been a concerted effort in the last few days to run the latest Arctic scare story, such as this one in the Telegraph:
The Arctic shattered heat records in the past year as unusually warm air triggered massive melting of ice and snow and a late fall freeze, US government scientists said on Tuesday.
The grim assessment came in the Arctic Report Card 2016, a peer-reviewed document by 61 scientists around the globe issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The NOAA report covers from October 2015 to September 2016, a period it said the Arctic’s average annual air temperature over land was the highest on record.
The use of the word “heat”, has become prevalent lately, all designed to put slightly warmer weather into a bad light. All I can say to the writer of this article is that…
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STRAIGHT-TALKING James Cook University marine geophysicist, Professor Peter Ridd has been an outspoken critic of the relentless tide of fear-mongering, misinformation and anti-science hysteria coming from climate change activists concerning the health of the Great Barrier Reef.
In June this year, Ridd made the headlines after suspecting something was wrong with photographs being used to highlight the apparent rapid decline of the Great Barrier Reef.
After attempting to blow the whistle on the bogus pictures, Ridd was censured by James Cook University and threatened with the sack…
After a formal investigation, Professor Ridd was found guilty of “failing to act in a collegial way and in the academic spirit of the institution”!
His crime was to encourage questioning of two of the nation’s leading reef institutions, the Centre of Excellence for Coral Studies and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, on whether they knew that photographs they had published and claimed to show long-term collapse of reef health could be misleading and wrong.” Graham Lloyd – The Australian – 11 June 2016
Similar totalitarian treatment was dished out by
free-thinking James Cook University to the late and great Bob Carter, a former JCU adjunct Professor. Carter was a world renowned climate change expert and sceptic. His crime – speaking outside the permitted doctrine of global warming climate change.
Don’t Trust Alarmist Scientists
Speaking to Andrew Bolt on Sky News’ The Bolt Report, Professor Ridd says you can’t trust alarmist scientists who claim the Great Barrier Reef is dying, thanks to man-made warming.
(Click picture to view video || 1m:19s length)
Great Barrier Reef scare related :
- Great Barrier Reef in near pristine condition: dive boat operators | Climatism
- “Dying” Reef Actually Growing | Climatism
- Great Barrier Reef Scaremongers Risk 10,000 Jobs | Climatism
- Expert: Scientists exaggerated coral bleaching story | Climatism
- Flannery Plumbs Fresh Depths Of Doom On Australia’s Great Barrier Reef | Climatism
- Climate Change Australia – The Great Barrier Reef Is Dead? What Warmist Writes This Falsehood? | Climatism
- Not Dead Yet: Great Barrier Reef Coral Cover Up 19 Per Cent In Three Years | Climatism
- Where’s The Sorry For That Great Barrier Reef Scare? | Climatism
- UNESCO ‘Green’ Lights The Reef – Activists Exposed As Liars And Frauds | Climatism
- climate science: MARINE SCIENTIST CENSURED FOR QUESTIONING MISLEADING CLAIMS BY COLLEAGUE
Great analysis by Paul Homewood explaining the “SUPER HOT” Arctic atmosphere, that has become the latest, hysterical climate (weather) event of the month pushed by climate alarmists.
By Paul Homewood
There has been increasing hysteria from global warming alarmists lately about polar sea ice trends.
So let’s start with the Arctic, where sea ice extent, despite some unusually, but certainly not unprecedented, mild weather in the last couple of months, has been tracking close to 2012.
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Corals evolved during the Cambrian era when atmospheric CO2 levels were at 6,000-7,000 ppm, around 4,000 percent or 20 times higher than today’s “CO2-starved” environment of 400 ppm. Temps were also 10 times higher then today…
It’s no wonder corals have survived millions of years of dramatic and “massive” climate change.
From the SMITHSONIAN TROPICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Half of all coral species in the Caribbean went extinct between 1 and 2 million years ago, probably due to drastic environmental changes. Which ones survived? Scientists working at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) think one group of survivors, corals in the genus Orbicella, will continue to adapt to future climate changes because of their high genetic diversity.
“Having a lot of genetic variants is like buying a lot of lottery tickets,” said Carlos Prada, lead author of the study and Earl S. Tupper Post-doctoral Fellow at STRI. “We discovered that even small numbers of individuals in three different species of the reef-building coral genus Orbicella have quite a bit of genetic variation, and therefore, are likely to adapt to big changes in their…
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