Why CSIRO and BoM Cannot Be Trusted On Anything “Climate Change”

CSIRO.jpg

 

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is the federal government agency for scientific research in Australia. It was founded in 1926 originally as the Advisory Council of Science and Industry.

In the field of climate science, the CSIRO leans staunchly towards the alarmist side of the climate debate. One example shows the CSIRO using sea level rise figures far in excess of even the (warmist) IPCC.

The Australian reports:

In its 2012 report, State of the Climate, the CSIRO says that since 1993 sea levels have risen up to 10mm a year in the north and west. That means that somewhere has had a 19cm-rise in sea level since 1993. Where is this place? The European satellite says that sea levels have been constant for the past eight years.

In its latest 2016, State of the Climate report, the CSIRO indulges in a blatant cherry-picking exercise to further push their agenda that human emissions are causing the climate to change.

They fail, however, to inform you of their chronic list of failed predictions from previous SOC reports.

This is why scientific organisations like CSIRO and BoM have – tragically – become almost the last places to hear the truth about the global warming climate change. Too many reputations are now at stake.

Andrew Bolt, yet again, sets their record straight from their own records! …

•••

The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology this week published their latest State of the Climate report:

Observations and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long-term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability.

Strangely, the report fails to explain why past predictions by the Bureau and the CSIRO of a permanent drought turned out so wrong.

Here is the Bureau, quoted in 2008:

IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.

“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones….

“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent…”

Here is the Bureau’s Jones in 2007:

As Jones wrote to the University of East Anglia the year before: “Truth be know, climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone of our cities is on the verge of running out of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse…”

Here is the CSIRO, quoted in 2009:

A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change…

”It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,” said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal. ‘

‘In the minds of a lot of people, the rainfall we had in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s was a benchmark. A lot of our [water and agriculture] planning was done during that time. But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.”

Yet, with floods and rains and filling dams is so many states, an author of this latest report gets a very soft interview from the ABC’s Fran Kelly, who also fails to note an astonishing bit of cherry-picking that discredits the whole report.

The report’s authors present this alleged evidence of man-made climate change hurting us:

Observations also show that atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere have led to an average reduction in rainfall across parts of southern Australia.

In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia. There has been a decline of around 11% since the mid-1990s in April–October rainfall in the continental southeast. Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997.

Note the strange decision, given our rainfall records go back more than a century, to pick apparently random and inconsistent dates – 1970 and 1997 and “mid 1990s” – as a base point from which to measure declines in rainfall. Note further that this decline is curiously only in patches of the country, and then only in – again – inconsistent periods, “May–July ” and “April–October”.

These are classic tell-tales of cherry picking – tricking to find some arbitrary period that can produce a statistical and scary decline which you can then present as troubling evidence that global warming is drying up our rains. (Even then, none of this comes even close to showing the “permanent” drought the agencies once claimed were leaving our cities desperately short of drinking water.)

This trickery becomes even clearer when you check the Bureau’s rainfall records for the whole past century or more. Amazingly, the impact of man-made warming becomes impossible to detect.

Here, again, is what the State of the Climate report says:

Observations also show that atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere have led to an average reduction in rainfall across parts of southern Australia.

But here is the Bureau’s own record of rainfall for southern Australia:

1.jpeg

Rain – southern Australia

Judged over the century, then, there is no evidence at all of rainfall decline.

Again, from the Bureau’s report:

In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia.

Rainfall in the south-west is indeed declining, and has done for most of the past 120 years, the first half of which almost no scientist would blame on man’s emissions, which even the IPCC says only had a real effect after World War 11:

2.jpeg

Rain in south west

State of the Climate’s authors also claim that “Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997”.

But the longer record for the south-east again shows no historic change:

SA No historic change.jpeg

Rain in south east

Once again, a decline from the unusually wet 1970s, but little sign of change over more than a century.

And for the continent as a whole, more rain, not less – and certainly no permanent drought:

Aus rainfall.jpeg

Rain Australia

And as for the Murray Darling, that the Bureau once said was on “the verge of collapse”:

4.jpeg

Murray Darling

This is disgraceful. The Bureau and the CSIRO must explain why they have fed us such scares.

 

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CSIRO / BoM Related :

See Also :


Arctic Ice Extent Recovering At Record Pace

“Record” Arctic sea-ice recovery despite record CO2 emissions this Century and rising!

In fact a third of all Human CO2 emissions since 1750 have been emitted this Century, yet global temps have plateaued and the Arctic is currently tracking record recovery.

Time for a global-warming-theory check? It is, after all, still a “theory” with not a single peer-reviewed paper yet to link empirical evidence with the small amount of warming that has occurred since 1850 – about 0.8C, depending on which data-set is used.

Furthermore the slight warning that has occurred is arguably beneficial to human wellbeing and plant growth, as opposed to dangerous cooling. Far more lives are lost to cold weather than to warm.

As well, numerous studies, including from AGW alarmist government agencies NASA and the CSIRO have shown that rising CO2 emissions are “greening” the planet, which with great irony happens to be a very unwelcome message for the environmental movement.

CSIRO Censoring Their Own Climate Research:
https://climatism.wordpress.com/2015/03/25/csiro-censoring-their-own-climate-research/

So much for the “Ice-free Arctic by 2014”, “Arctic Death Spiral”, “Arctic Imminent Doom”, “Arctic Tipping Points” and other alarmist predictions spouted by climate scientists, government agencies and their sycophant media.

The Arctic is the ultimate ‘canary in the coal-mine’ for global warming alarmists, and it is currently recovering at record pace, despite record CO2 emissions.

Cue “Global Warming Is Causing Record Arctic Ice Growth”! But don’t laugh, climate alarmists have already used that one to explain the undisputed *record* ice expansion and cooling of Antarctica 🇦🇶!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20160928

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

Arctic sea ice continues to grow back at a phenomenal rate. Since the start of the month, growth has comfortable exceeded anything on record since daily figures began in 1987.

image

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Ice has expanded by 0.896 million sq km, compared to the 1981-2010 average of 0.237 million sq km.

According to NSIDC, ice extent now stands at the fourth highest for this day in the last 10 years.

image

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

DMI actually show ice extent to be higher than NSIDC, roughly equal to 2013 and 2014, which raises questions in itself.

osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

DMI now estimate that the average extent for the month will be greater than, or on a par with, most of the last ten years. Only 2013 and 2014 are much greater.

It is clear that September ice extent has remained extremely stable since 2007, regardless of what happened before.

osisaf_nh_iceextent_monthly-09_en

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover_30y.uk.php

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Fruity News From The Global Warming Front

CO2 plant food

Good news from the field of global warming science! A happy South Australian grower is cleaning up:

 

No artificial gases are used to redden or ripen the tomatoes. But in another hi-tech innovation, carbon dioxide levels are elevated in the glasshouses to boost crop production by about 30 per cent.

 

Imagine how good that would be if replicated with the planet.

 
OMG! It has been! :

Satellite data gathered over 33 years has shown there has been a ‘persistent and widespread increase’ in the growing season of plants.

 
The Earth is getting greener with rising carbon dioxide levels, researchers have revealed. They found over the past 33 years, leaf cover around more than half of the vegetated area of the world has increased. They say the extra greenery is equivalent to covering the USA twice with plants.

 
Scientists say up to half of the world’s vegetated areas are now showing signs of increased leaf cover, with the majority caused by extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

 

Source: Fruity news from the global warming front – Herald Sun

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CO2 Greening The Planet Related :

 


Climate Change Australia – Pleasing Tim Flannery, Outraging Conservatives

Dear Greg Hunt and the CSIRO,

If the science of Climate Change aka Global (non) Warming is “settled”, why the need for more climate-groupthink-jobs?

Conservatives elected the Abbott (conservative) government, now the Turnbull Gov, on the basis of abolishing climate policy and investigating, if not, ending the corrupt CSIRO and BoM climate cabals.

It’s no wonder the Turnbull coalition 2016 election result was such a disaster with opinion polls now in further freefall.

The majority of voters and taxpayers *did not* vote for this latest climate cash splash.

Spending more taxpayer millions on the alarmist climate scam, when the country is broke, is an outright scandal and a disgrace.

PA Pundits - International

Bolt New 01By Andrew Bolt ~

Malcolm Turnbull’s hijacking of the Liberal party continues – and I wonder how much longer Liberal members will allow this to go on:

CSIRO LogoClimate Science lobby, The Climate Council said new Science Minister Greg Hunt ordering CSIRO head Larry Marshall to re-hire climate scientists was a good step, but Australia needs to grow climate science capacity to meet international commitments.

One of Mr Hunt’s first acts as Science Minister has been to order Mr Marshall to hire 15 new climate scientists and invest $37 million in research over 10 years.

Professor Tim Flannery from the council said the government had failed to stop the full extent of the job cuts to climate divisions.

Mr Marshall announced in February that 350 jobs would go including in the Oceans and Atmosphere and the Land and Water divisions. This was then cut down to 275, with only a portion…

View original post 57 more words


Triumph of the Sceptics!

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to 
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC 
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itohan award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of 
scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” – U.S Government
Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of
NOAA.

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.

“The whole climate change issue is about to fall apart — Heads will roll!” – South African UN Scientist Dr. Will Alexander, April 12, 2009

•••

Sceptic Majority

Follow up column from yesterdays post – CSIRO: Most Australians Are Now Global Warming Sceptics | Climatism …

CSIRO survey shows more Aussies are cool on warming

  • HERALD SUN
  • NOVEMBER 05, 2015 12:00AM

IT’S a miracle. Most Australians are now global warming sceptics, despite years of being misled by the media.

A CSIRO survey of more than 5000 people has confirmed it, even though warmist reporters tried to spin it.

For the first time since Al Gore’s 2006 film An Inconvenient Truth claimed man was heating the world to disaster, Australians who believe this scare are outnumbered by those who don’t. True, a worrying 45.9 per cent of Australians do still think man is mostly to blame for what warming we’ve seen over the past several decades.

But those believers are now outnumbered by people who think this warming is natural (38.6 per cent) or not occurring at all (7.9 per cent) — which means sceptics total 46.5 per cent. The rest don’t know.

In fact, even 19 per cent of Greens voters are sceptics. Yes, the shift is that huge. What a tribute to the good sense of Australians.

For nearly a decade, reporters claimed the vast majority of you believed man really was heating the world dangerously. And the media campaigned furiously to make sure you did. You were bombarded with propaganda. Your doubts were mocked. You were told that the world’s temperature was soaring, when there’s actually been no significant warming of the atmosphere for some 18 years.

You were told we were getting more and worse cyclones, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest report in fact admits neither seems true and, if anything, we’re getting fewer.

You were told by Professor Tim Flannery in 2007 that warming could dry out the dams of Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide within a couple of years because “even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems”. Except it did, repeatedly, to the point of flooding.

You were told by the ABC’s chief science presenter, Robyn Williams, the seas could rise up to 100 metres this century, thanks to a dramatic melting of the Antarctic — which NASA last week conceded was instead increasing in ice mass.

You were told by the UN that the world’s food crops would fail, when they’ve instead set new records.

You were told to beware of giant hailstones (Professor Ross Garnaut), dengue fever (Professor Tony McMichael), tsunamis (World Vision boss Tim Costello), killer heatwaves (Professor Peter Doherty), seas as high as “an eight-storey building” (Flannery), a “permanent drought” (Greens leader Bob Brown) and a dead Great Barrier Reef by 2050 (Professor Ove Hoegh-Gulberg).

Your politicians, with rare exceptions, failed you. They should have challenged this disgraceful alarmism. Instead, they exploited it and even forced you to pay billions for fake schemes and taxes to “stop” a warming that actually halted or dramatically slowed nearly two decades ago.

BLOG WITH ANDREW BOLT

Yet this miracle has occurred. You’ve kept your heads when so many journalists tried so hard to make you panic.

In fact, they’re still at it, even with this report, which the warmist CSIRO quietly slipped out among the distractions of Melbourne Cup day.

None of the media reports pointed out the central finding: that believers in man-made global warming are now in a minority in Australia.

Instead, they tried to bury it with spin. Typically, the ABC was worst, actually giving the impression that global warming faith was as strong as ever. “Research by the CSIRO has found more than three quarters of Australians agree climate change is happening,” it burbled, “with divisions emerging along political lines”. Excuse me, but this debate has never been about whether “climate change is real”.

Of course, it’s real. The climate always changes. The real debate is what caused what warming we’ve seen — and whether more warming is bad and worth trying to stop.

The Sydney Morning Herald and Age were little better, spinning the CSIRO’s results into a story of how Coalition voters were numbskulls — the holdouts refusing to “accept” the truth: “Barely one in four Coalition voters accepts climate change is mostly caused by humans,” its tut-tutting report began.

It even added the hope, expressed by an alarmist scientist, that new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull could save the Liberals from this error: “Many Coalition voters will take their cue from the PM and shift their views.”

Don’t count on it, champ. He tried to shift the views of Coalition supporters the last time he was Liberal leader and it cost him his job.

Face facts: the public smells the warmist bull and is finally crying: “Enough!” The time for truth is now.

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See also :

Global Warming “Pause” related :

Sceptic related :

CSIRO related :


CSIRO: Most Australians Are Now Global Warming Sceptics

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to 
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC 
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itohan award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.

“The whole climate change issue is about to fall apart — Heads will roll!” – South African UN Scientist Dr. Will Alexander, April 12, 2009

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.

•••

A new survey from Australia’s premier scientific body, the CSIRO, shows that most Global warming believers are now in the minority!

The findings demonstrate that the majority of the population are not stupid, and see straight through and reject the endless ‘climate change’ alarmism and propaganda that is drilled into them day and night from the global-warming-crisis-industry and complicit mainstream media.

Hats off to the sceptical majority for maintaining their independence of thought, and not being tempted into the comfort of groupthink.

•••

Andrew Bolt picks apart the CSIRO study in his Herald Sun Blog :

The Sydney Morning Herald misses the most astonishing finding of the CSIRO study to complain that Malcolm Turnbull leads a party of sceptics:

Barely one in four Coalition voters accepts climate change is mostly caused by humans, with more than half of Liberal voters believing changes to global temperatures are natural, according to a CSIRO survey.

And it holds out false hope:

Andy Pitman, Director of ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science at the University of NSW, predicted that many Coalition voters will take their cue from the new PM and shift their views.

They didn’t last time, Mr Pitman. No, this is a reminder to Malcolm Turnbull not to push his luck too hard as leader of a party far more sceptical than he is:

But this Herald report misses the most startling finding: only a minority of Australians now think man is mostly to blame for global warming. More think global warming is largely natural or not happening:

image

Incredibly, even 19 per cent of Greens voters are now sceptics, too:

image

Despite the media’s best efforts, there has been a huge shift in opinion. The global warming scare is dying.

Mind you, another drought – inevitable in this continent – could keep the scare going for a while yet.

•••

Related :

CSIRO Related :


The Science is Settled : “Children Just Aren’t Going To Know What Snow Is”

Snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David VinerSenior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.”UN IPCC
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.

•••

Screen Shot 2015-05-12 at , May 12, 11.04.59 am

Source: The Daily Telegraph

With snowfall blanketing NSW ski fields a month before the official start of the snow season, Andrew Bolt takes a look back at past snow fall predictions, made by our most revered climate experts, and checks how they’re holding up …

•••

via Andrew Bolt Blog – Herald Sun :

Does the CSIRO still stick by its prediction?

Do not question the science!

The warmist CSIRO, August 2003:


Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths.  At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

Reality, 2015: 

Hopes of bumper season as 15cm of snow covers Perisher’s slopes with more falls predicted.

All around the world, warmists were once predicting the end of snow:

2000 – a prediction from the centre of global warming alarmism:
According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.


2000:
a prediction from Professor Mojib Latif of Germany’s GEOMAR Heimholtz Centre for Ocean Research:

Winters with strong frosts and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will no longer exist at our latitudes.

2008 – another prediction:

A study of snowfall spanning 60 years has indicated that the Alps’s entire winter sports industry could grind to a halt through lack of snow….

Ever since we’ve actually seen amazing snow dumps, especially in the US.

UPDATE

The Australian Antarctic Division gets more reason to doubt the polar-caps-are-melting scare:

Record Antarctic sea ice is forcing scientists to consider relocating research bases as they struggle to cope.

Satellite observations show a new daily record being set for ­Antarctic sea ice every day for the past two weeks. Annual records have also been broken every year for the past three years.

Rob Wooding, general manager of the Australian Antarctic Division’s Operations Branch, said expanding sea ice was now causing serious problems. Last year, fuel supplies were flown to Australia’s Mawson base by helicopter because the harbour had failed to clear. Dr Wooding said the situation was “unsustainable”…

Seasonal growth in Antarctic sea ice is now under way and is expected to peak at another record level in September… Recent research had also shown the ice is thicker than previously thought.

At least warmist scientist Chris Turney has stayed away this year, having learned that the world isn’t following his warming script:

IT began as a journey to “investigate the impact of changing climate” and to “use the subantarctic islands as thermometers of climatic change” but more than 70 global warming activists, journalists and crew, led by University of NSW professor of climate change Chris Turney, are now trapped by millions of tonnes of ice after their ship was caught in freezing conditions off the Antarctic coast.

•••

Climatism observations :

ANTARCTIC

Climate fail : Antarctic sea ice did the exact opposite of what climate experts and their billion dollar, tax-payer funded, climate models predicted …

Australian Antarctic Division battles record ice, considers moving

Screen Shot 2015-05-12 at , May 12, 11.41.18 am

Record Antarctic sea ice is forcing scientists to consider relocating research bases as they struggle to cope.

Satellite observations show a new daily record being set for ­Antarctic sea ice every day for the past two weeks. Annual records have also been broken every year for the past three years.

Rob Wooding, general manager of the Australian Antarctic Division’s Operations Branch, said expanding sea ice was now causing serious problems.

Last year, fuel supplies were flown to Australia’s Mawson base by helicopter because the harbour had failed to clear. Dr Wooding said the situation was “unsustainable”.

He said it was possible for the Aurora Australis icebreaker to break through a certain amount of sea ice to enter the harbour, and the planned capability of a replacement icebreaker would increase the ability to do this.

But conditions experienced last year of thick sea ice, with snow cover, extending out 40 to 50km could not regularly be navigated by any Antarctic resupply vessel.

Screen Shot 2015-05-12 at , May 12, 11.45.40 am

Full article…

There is, in fact, so much Antarctic sea ice that Australia is not only considering moving it’s research bases, but is also currently in a tender process for a new ice breaker !

•••

SNOW FALL PREDICTIONS – Another dud-prediction, climate fail :

The world’s leading climate experts at the IPCC warned this would happen …

15.2.4.1.2.4.

Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms

IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001

•••

TEMPERATURE ~ The biggest dud-prediction of all :

There has been no atmospheric global warming, at all, over the past 18 years, or for over half of the entire satellite record. This inconvenient lack of warming despite 35% of all human CO2 emissions, since 1751, emitted over roughly the same 18 year period.

Since 2002, the lower troposphere, where warming is measured and what global warming theory is based on, has been in fact, on a slight cooling trend.

It’s no wonder the ‘warmist’ fraternity now prefer to use the term “climate change” …

Screen Shot 2015-05-12 at , May 12, 1.32.14 pm

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

BROKEN MODELS

97% of climate models say that 97% of climate experts are wrong, yet these overheated computer models form the entire basis of radical climate policy …

Models running too Hot

97% of climate models say that 97% of climate scientists are wrong | Climatism

•••

UPDATE

Australia Getting Slammed With Cold And Snow

Climatism:

Love it how the alarmist media; ABC, Fairfax, blame Australia’s current record cold winter on this “Antarctic Polar Vortex” a la the “Polar Vortex” in the NH winter just gone (that one actually blamed on “Global Warming”!).

They use the extreme language to reassure the gullible and themselves that really cold winters are freak events, nothing to see here, and you’re all still gonna fry.

Originally posted on Real Science:

In case you were wondering why alarmists aren’t talking about Australia any more. Temperatures are running well below normal, with lots of snow in the mountains.

ScreenHunter_227 Jul. 15 20.1310-Day Temperature Outlook

ScreenHunter_226 Jul. 15 20.06

View original

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See also :

The CSIRO Is Telling Us Everything We Need To Snow

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Antarctica :

Snow :

CSIRO :

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