Posted: September 12, 2017 Filed under: Antarctic, Antarctica, Arctic, Climate models, Climate science, Climatism, CO2 (Carbon Dioxide), Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Glaciers, Global Cooling, IPCC, Oceans, Science | Tags: Antarctica, Climate Change, Climate science, Failed CMIP5 Models, Glacier, global cooling, Hottest Year Ever, Natural Climate Change, nature, North Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Peer review study, science, Southern Ocean
“Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.”
INTERESTING to see how the warmist community will spin the “science” from these latest inconvenient findings that contradict IPCC climate model predictions and the endless “Hottest Year Evah“ PR claims.
NO doubt, Climate Crisis Inc … and the UN IPCC won’t go near it. And don’t expect to see empirical evidence of globally cooling oceans and thickening glaciers gleefully reported on CNN, BBC or ABC Australia. Any climate news that doesn’t fit the human-caused warming narrative is expressly ignored by the #FakeNews mainstream media, using their favoured and most effective propaganda weapon – confirmation bias.
MORE from Kenneth Richard via Pierre Gosselin’s excellent site NoTricksZone :
Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.
According to Dieng et al. (2017), for example, the global oceans underwent a slowdown, a pause, or even a slight cooling trend during 2003 to 2013. This undermines expectations from climate models which presume the increase in radiative forcing from human CO2 emissions should substantially increase ocean temperatures.
The authors indicate that the recent trends in ocean temperatures “may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle“, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and not follow radiative forcing trends.
Dieng et al., 2017 We investigate the global mean and regional change of sea surface and land surface temperature over 2003–2013, using a large number of different data sets, and compare with changes observed over the past few decades (starting in 1950). … While confirming cooling of eastern tropical Pacific during the last decade as reported in several recent studies, our results show that the reduced rate of change of the 2003–2013 time span is a global phenomenon. GMST short-term trends since 1950 computed over successive 11-year windows with 1-year overlap show important decadal variability that highly correlates with 11-year trends of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. The GMST 11-year trend distribution is well fitted by a Gaussian function, confirming an unforced origin related to internal climate variability.
We evaluate the time derivative of full-depth ocean heat content to determine the planetary energy imbalance with different approaches: in situ measurements, ocean reanalysis and global sea level budget. For 2003–2013, it amounts to 0.5 +/− 0.1 W m−2, 0.68 +/− 0.1 W m−2 and 0.65 +/− 0.1 W m−2, respectively for the three approaches. Although the uncertainty is quite large because of considerable errors in the climate sensitivity parameter, we find no evidence of decrease in net radiative forcing in the recent years, but rather an increase compared to the previous decades.
We can note that the correlation between GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends and AMO trends is quite high. It amounts 0.88 over the whole time span. At the beginning of the record, the correlation with PDO trends is also high (equal to 0.8) but breaks down after the mid-1980s. The GMST and AMO trends shown in Figure 6 show a low in the 1960s and high in the 1990s, suggestive of a 60-year oscillation, as reported for the global mean sea level by Chambers et al. (2012). Thus the observed temporal evolution of the GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle driven by the AMO.
Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Rapidly Since 2005
According to Piecuch et al. (2017) there has been no net warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the last quarter century. The warming that occurred in the 10 years from 1994-2004 has been completely negated by an even more pronounced cooling trend since 2005. The predominant (87%) cause of the warming was determined to be of the same natural (non-anthropogenic) origin as the subsequent cooling: advection, the movement/circulation of heat via internal processes. In fact, human CO2 emissions are never mentioned as even contributing to the the 1994-2004 warming.
Piecuch et al., 2017 The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004–2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015. … Over the last two decades, the SPNA has undergone a pronounced climate shift. Decadal OHC and SST trends reversed sign around 2004–2005, with a strong warming seen during 1994–2004 and marked cooling observed over 2005–2015. These trend reversals were pronounced (> 0.1 °C yr−1 in magnitude) in the northeastern North Atlantic (south and west of Iceland) and in the Labrador Sea. … To identify basic processes controlling SPNA thermal variations, we diagnose the SPNA heat budget using ECCOv4. Changes in the heat content of an oceanic control volume can be caused by convergences and divergences of advective, diffusive, and surface heat fluxes within the control volume. [Advective heat convergence] explains 87% of the total [ocean heat content] variance, the former [warming] showing similar decadal behavior to the latter [cooling], increasing over 1994–2004, and decreasing over 2005–2015. … These results demonstrate that the recent SPNA decadal trend reversal was mostly owing to advective convergences by ocean circulation … decadal variability during 1993–2015 is in largest part related to advection by horizontal gyres.
Yeager and Robson (2017) also point out that, like it did from the 1960s to 1980s, the North Atlantic “has again been cooling”, a trend which they and others expect to continue. Sea surface temperatures are no warmer today than they were in the 1950s.
Yeager and Robson, 2017 [W]hile the late twentieth century Atlantic was dominated by NAO-driven THC [thermohaline circulation] variability, other mechanisms may dominate in other time periods. … More recently, the SPNA [sub polar North Atlantic] upper ocean has again been cooling, which is also thought to be related to a slowdown in the THC. A continued near-term cooling of the SPNA has been forecast by a number of prediction systems, with implications for pan-Atlantic climate.
The Southern Ocean Has Been Cooling Since The 1970s, Contrary To Models
Latif et al., 2017 The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s, whereas most of the planet has warmed considerably. In contrast, climate models generally simulate Southern Ocean surface warming when driven with observed historical radiative forcing. The mechanisms behind the surface cooling and other prominent changes in the Southern Ocean sector climate during the recent decades, such as expanding sea ice extent, abyssal warming, and CO2 uptake, are still under debate. Observational coverage is sparse, and records are short but rapidly growing, making the Southern Ocean climate system one of the least explored. It is thus difficult to separate current trends from underlying decadal to centennial scale variability.
Turney et al., 2017 Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.
READ Full Report here including; Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice expansion, Pacific Ocean cooling, Glaciers, Ice sheets stable and gaining mass…
Posted: June 1, 2015 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Climatism, Fact Check, Global Warming Stasis, Oceans, Settled Science | Tags: "The Pause", Alarmism debunked, Climate Change, Deep Ocean, Global Warming, Global Warming "Pause", Ocean Heat, Oceans, Settled Science
Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical
“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of
scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” – U.S Government
Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of
“The whole climate change issue is about to fall apart — Heads will roll!” – South African UN Scientist Dr. Will Alexander, April 12, 2009
“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.
via THE HOCKEY SCHTICK :
A new paper published in Ocean Science Discussions directly contradicts the claim that “90%” of the alleged “missing heat” from anthropogenic global warming has disappeared into the deep oceans below 2000 meters. This was, according to the authors, the favored excuse (out of more than 70 ‘excuses’ at this point) for the “pause” or “hiatus” of global warming over the past 18+ years.
Warming of the deep oceans, however, would cause thermal expansion of the deep oceans and add to sea level rise [called steric sea level rise]. The authors examined several datasets including satellite altimetry, ARGO floats, and the GRACE gravitometer satellites, and find that the thermal expansion of the deep oceans and contribution to sea level rise is “negligible,” and thus, there is no evidence that the alleged “missing heat” “trapped” by greenhouse gases has somehow sunken to the deep oceans. In addition, the “missing heat” is also nowhere to be found in the upper oceans, nor the atmosphere (because in reality it was lost to space as increased outgoing IR radiation over the past 62 years).
The authors find the sea level budget of total sea level rise is “closed” with “negligible” contribution from the deep ocean, thus no warming or thermal expansion from the “missing heat” in the deep ocean can be accounted for:
“…the sea level budget is closed when using the CCI, AVISO and NOAA data. Hence, in these cases, the deep ocean (below 2000 meters) contribution is negligible.”
Note: see prior Hockey Schtick posts using the GRACE ocean mass + ARGO steric sea level calculation of sea level change described in this paper, as well as this NOAA 2012 calculation of same showing sea level rising at less than half the rate claimed by the IPCC.
Excerpts, full paper here
Read full post via THE HOCKEY SCHTICK
NASA Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed | NASA
Climatism Hot Links :
Posted: February 9, 2014 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Alarmists, Carbon Tax, Climate Alarmism, Climate Change, Climate Changes, Climate science, Climatism, CO2 (Carbon Dioxide), Consensus, Denier, Eco-activist, Eco-Activists, Empirical Evidence, Environmentalists, Fact Check, Global Temperature, Global Warming, Global Warming Stasis, Government Grants/Funding, Govt Climate Agenda, Green Agenda, John Cook, NASA, Oceans, Propaganda, Pseudo-Science, Satellite Data, Settled Science, Warmism | Tags: (un)skeptical science, Climate Change, Global Warming Hiatus, john cook, nasa, propaganda
“It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment
(un)skeptical-science’s John Cook
In a recent article, Mike Hulme argued that the debate “needs to become more political, and less scientific”. We agree, because the scientific debate has moved on from the fundamentals – there is no scientific debate about the fact that the globe is warming from human greenhouse gas emissions. So we need to hammer out political solutions rather than “debating” well-established scientific facts. – John Cook
Establishing consensus is vital for climate action | The Conversation
Memo to John Cook : There has been no atmospheric global warming, at all, over the past 17 years, despite 35% of all human CO2 emissions, since 1751, emitted over the same period.
Satellites show no global warming for 17 years 5 months | Watts Up With That?
Whilst Cook et al would prefer to talk politics to avoid the inconvenient global warming “Pause”, here are some well-established scientific facts …
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling : Nature : Nature Publishing Group
Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008 | PNAS
Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade : Nature Climate Change
Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group
Climate change: The case of the missing heat : Nature News & Comment
England et al.
“The Oceans Ate My Global Warming” :
With no rise in atmospheric temps over the past 17 years, the latest bluff in climate alarmism is that the ‘missing heat’ is hiding at the bottom of the oceans. However, the first globally accurate network of measurement buoys (3000+ ARGO satellite buoys), which descend to depths of 2,000 metres, have detected no significant increase in ocean heat since deployment in 2003.
Kevin Trenberth theorises that missing heat takes a dive into deep oceans. “The oceans can at times soak up a lot of heat. Some goes into the deep oceans where it can stay for centuries [and where lamentably, there are no reliable temperature measurements]. But heat absorbed closer to the surface can easily flow back into the air.” Yet sea surface temperatures and the upper heat content didn’t increase over the last decade by enough to account for the “missing heat” that those greenhouse gas emissions should have trapped in the Earth’s climate system but couldn’t be found. (via Forbes)
Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly – NOAA
Global Marine Argo Atlas
Another alarmist excuse for the 17+ year “pause” in Global Warming has been ‘scientifically’ assassinated …. by none other than the doyens of ‘Global Warming’ hysteria ~ NASA, who now admit that the “Missing (atmospheric) heat” is NOT “Hiding in the deep oceans” after all !
NASA Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed | NASA
More from former NASA Climate Scientist Dr Roy Spencer :
NASA: The Deep Ocean Hasn’t Warmed Since 2005 (but we’re all gonna die)
October 6th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
While still claiming that the results do not cast doubt on climate change, a new NASA press release says that the global oceans below 2,000 meters depth haven’t warmed since 2005. This is the period that we have had the deep oceans reasonably well sampled with thousands of globally-distributed Argo floats.
The thing that annoys me about such press releases is the obligatory disclaimer (no doubt crafted so that “skeptics” don’t have a field day with the press release):
“Study coauthor Josh Willis of JPL said these findings do not throw suspicion on climate change itself.”
Such statements have the usual vagueness that allows the True Believers to interpret it any way they want.
Does it mean: “It doesn’t throw suspicion on Al Gore’s impending thermogeddon”?
Or does it mean: “It doesn’t throw suspicion on the fact that climate has always changed, and always will change, with or without the help of humans”?
Or maybe something in between?
You see, as long as the IPCC gets away with basing alarmist rhetoric upon factually benign statements, like over half of the warming since the 1950s has been human induced (yawn), the global warming debate will remain dominated by extremists.
And this allows politicians to get away with saying whatever they want. Scientists are so vague that their statements can be used in a wide variety of ways that help the politician.
NASA: The Deep Ocean Hasn’t Warmed Since 2005 (but we’re all gonna die) « Roy Spencer, PhD
From the well-established scientific fact that there has been no global warming, at all, for the past 17 years, it’s not hard to see why Cook and the
global warming climate change cult believe the debate “needs to become more political, and less scientific”.
Global Warming was never about ‘science‘. It was always about Power, Money and Overpopulation.
A little humour on Cooky …
Seventeen and a half years. Not a flicker of global warming. The RSS satellite record, the first of the five global-temperature datasets to report its February value, shows a zero trend for an impressive 210 months. Miss Brevis, send a postcard to Mr Gore:
Make that 18 years and 4 months, or now a “pause” of global warming lasting for more than half the entire satellite record:
The latest “peer-reviewed” global warming “pause” update from Nature journal:
See Also :
John Cook’s Bogus “97%” Climate Consensus Survey related :
John Cook Misc. :
Climatism Related :