Posted: February 22, 2017 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Climate Alarmism, Climatism, CO2, CO2 (Carbon Dioxide), Drought, Empirical Evidence, Extreme Weather, Fact Check, Floods, Green Agenda, Hurricanes, Propaganda, Typhoons, UN | Tags: California, Climate Change, Climate Change Scam, Climate science, Cyclones, drought, Extreme weather, flood, Global Warming Scam, Global Warming Scare, Hurricanes, Precipitation, propaganda, Scare Mongering, snow, Typhoons
The “Extreme Weather” meme has earned its place in climate change history as the fundamental driver of climate scaremongering, used deceptively and effectively to promote the catastrophic man-made climate change theory by instilling fear, doom and gloom directly into the human psyche through simple imagery and repetitive correlation rhetoric.
Even though “weather” is not climate, the daily bombardment via news and multi-media of climatic disaster clips provide more than enough evidence for the casual observer to convince them that the climate is in fact changing as a direct result of human CO2 emissions.
Much of the mainstream media gleefully encourages and promotes the catastrophic man-made warming narrative. Hence, sensationalising a typhoon in the Phillipines or a forest fire in California has become fair-game in the virtuous and IMHO nefarious push to enhance the supposed human CO2-induced climate catastrophe.
However, when you look at hard data and scientific evidence pertaining to extreme weather through the lens of “Government data” and “Peer-Reviewed Science”, as opposed to scary pictures and videos, absorbed via billions of iPhones and hysterical climate-obsessed mainstream media, things are not quite as bad as they seem. In fact, by most metrics, extreme weather events are becoming ‘less’ extreme as CO2 increases. This should come as relieving news to all, though sadly, yet predictably, such data will come as extremely inconvenient news to the virtuous “Save The Planet” lobby and especially those invested in the trillion dollar
global warming climate change industry that feeds and thrives off doomsday scenarios.
Below are listed the more common metrics associated with the much maligned and deceptively ascribed “extreme weather” meme. A term which I would label as a very clever weapon of mass climate propaganda to elevate hysteria, emotions and fear with the ultimate end to mould groupthink belief in human CO2-induced climate change…
The US is currently experiencing a record 12 year (4,380 days) drought of major landfall hurricanes (Cat3+). The last major hurricane to hit was “Wilma” in 2005:
The major hurricane drought for Category 3 or greater storms continues. Updated December 2016 by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. (via WUWT)
Interesting historical reference point:
NOAA keeps hurricane records back to 1850. The average number of US hurricane strikes per presidency is about eleven. Obama’s presidency had five hurricane strikes, the last being “Matthew” (Cat 1 at landfall, October 8,2016).
Grover Cleveland (1885 – 1889 & 1893 – 1897) and Franklin D Roosevelt (1933 – 1945) both presided over 26 hurricanes, almost six times as many as Obama:
The presidency of Barack Obama had the lowest frequency of US hurricane strikes of any president:
Charts via Steve S Goddard – Only updated to 2014
NOAA – Chronological List of All Hurricanes
During Obama’s presidency, atmospheric CO2 levels were between 384-400 ppm. At the time of Grover Cleveland, atmospheric CO2 levels were at 294 ppm. (NASA CO2 Data)
Last years tornado season marked the fifth consecutive year of below normal tornado activity in the US:
NOAA | Storm Prediction Center WCM Page
Over the past 55 years there has been a large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes:
There has been no trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014:
Historical Records and Trends | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Paul Homewood, of the excellent climate blog NALOPKT, notes that NOAA has not bothered to update Tornado data for 2015/16. “Could it be they would rather the public did not find out the truth?”
Last year may set the record for the least number of Tornadoes on record:
In summary, with an interesting caveat from NOAA:
- No trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014 tornadoes.
- Large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.
- 2016 perhaps a record for the least number of Tornadoes on record.
ALL THIS despite rising CO2 and advanced technologies, including doppler radar and greater attention to reporting – Tornado chasers, increased population etc – which can create “a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency.” – NOAA
Jamal Munshi of Sonoma State University published this paper last June, A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity:
The ACE index is used to compare tropical cyclone activity worldwide among seven decades from 1945 to 2014. Some increase in tropical cyclone activity is found relative to the earliest decades. No trend is found after the decade 1965-1974. A comparison of the six cyclone basins in the study shows that the Western Pacific Basin is the most active basin and the North Indian Basin the least. The advantages of using a general linear model for trend analysis are described.
A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity by Jamal Munshi :: SSRN
Again, despite rising CO2, there is no trend in tropical cyclone activity after the decade 1965-1974. With a sharp decline in activity over the past two decades.
AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology graph shows a significant downtrend in all tropical storms, with no discernible trend for severe tropical cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone Trends | Bureau Of Meteorology
Again, it’s clear from the BoM graph that as CO2 has increased, the frequency and strength of cyclones has decreased.
NB, the (warmist) BoM is still yet to update its cyclone graph from 2011. Are they simply lazy? Have no data since 2011? Or are they trying to hide inconvenient climate data that doesn’t fit the CO2-induced extreme weather narrative? You decide.
Snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)
Climate change alarmists (experts) use tangible and emotional climatic horror scenarios to scare you into belief. One of the more classic instances of such fear-mongering, gone horribly wrong, was that by Dr David Viner – esteemed climatologist from the UK’s CRU, in 2000.
From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
After over 15 years, the Independent removed that article, and the URL used to come up like this:
It originally read like this:
The original link now boots back to their homepage.
Our friends at WUWT have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – The Independent (PDF)
In fairness, perhaps the good Dr Viner was
colluding consulting with the virtuous partners of climate catastrophe expertise, the UN IPCC…
IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001 – Complete online versions | GRID-Arendal – Publications – Other
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The (warmist) CSIRO jumped on the “end of snow” bandwagon in August 2003:
Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…
The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).
The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths. At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…
We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.
In 2014, the New York Times signalled “The End of Snow”:
The End of Snow? – NYTimes.com
BACK TO THE REAL WORLD
2017 Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was amongst the highest on record last month:
Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent is trending upwards, despite rising CO2 emissions:
Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
SNOW EXTENT UPDATE 2017
January snow extent update… 10th highest on record.
Again, as CO2 has increased, NH Snow extent has increased :
Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab
And for Australia’s CSIRO who assured the end of snow by 2020/2030…
Heavy snow forecast for the Australian Alps despite ski season ending a month ago
Australia’s snowfields have been overdosed by snow over the past 5+ years.
FLOODS / DROUGHT
“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007
“This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake.”
– Dr Tim Flannery,
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology 2008:
IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.
“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones….
“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent…”
The Bureau’s David Jones in 2007:
As Jones wrote to the University of East Anglia the year before: “Truth be know, climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone of our cities is on the verge of running out of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse…”
The CSIRO, 2009:
A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change…
”It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,” said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal.
THE REAL WORLD (as of 2016 data)
For the continent of Australia as a whole, there is more rain, not less – and certainly no permanent drought:
Winter was Australia’s second wettest on record – just missing out on a new high by a couple of millimetres, leaving many regions already sodden.
“It’s about as wet as it has been in the past 110 years [of records] across Australia,” David Jones, head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.
Floods! Near-record rainfall! When will the head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology (David Jones) explain why his 2008 prediction of a “new climate” of drought turned out so, so wrong?
THE CONSEQUENCES OF PROFESSIONAL CLIMATE ALARMISTS’ DUD-PREDICTIONS
The price of global warming alarmism is enormous. Take the cost of the mothballed desalination plants, built after warmists persuaded politiciansthe rains would dry up:
Sydney’s privatised desalination plant, which is costing residents more than $500,000 a day to keep on standby, will not be needed for at least another four or five years. The sale of the plant last year to a private company for $2.3 billion means residents are locked into paying about $10 billion in fees for the next 50 years, whether the plant is operating or not. Not one drop of water has come out of the Kurnell facility since it stopped operating more than a year ago. With dam levels at 93.4 per cent, the plant has been placed into “water security” mode, a long-term shutdown which is likely to continue for some time.”My best estimate is it will still be about four to five years before we turn the desalination plant on,” Sydney Water’s managing director Kevin Young told 7.30 New South Wales
Mind you, big cities did need more water security as they grew. Dams were the cheap option, but who made those almost illegal?
How warmists cost us billions | Herald Sun
More: The legacy of Tim Flannery..White elephant desalination plants | Climatism
Australia is now awash with water. Nearly every dam is full. And we are left with x4 mothballed desal plants that cost $12Billion to build and are costing the taxpayer $1million per day (each) under contract until 2030/50.
Unfortunately, the worst Flannery and his climate change alarmist comrades can ever be accused of, for the litany of failed alarmist dud-predictions resulting in massive taxpayer-dollar waste, is an excess of “Save the planet”virtue.
Last September, New York’s Daily News forecast centuries of global warming drought for California:
One of the myriad incorrect assertions by climate-change deniers is that scientists who have proven manmade causes for the current global warming ignore periods of warming in the Earth’s past that were not caused by industrial pollution.
Since it’s essentially, and of course ironically, entirely non-scientists who make this claim, the deniers would do well to read a recent UCLA study that indicates California’s current six-year severe drought could be exacerbated enough by global warming to extend the dry period for centuries.
California has now seen more moisture in the last 8 weeks than it typically does in an entire year… San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and several other cities have recorded one of their wettest Januarys on record and an incredibly wet 8 weeks overall.
And for those who desire to claim the recent California floods are “unprecedented” and “extreme”, the below graph shows that inflow to Oroville so far this year is far from unprecedented, with a much greater total in 1997.
And we can see from the state rainfall totals that January 2017 was nothing special:
HISTORICAL DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE
USA drought during the low-CO2 1930’s:
USA drought during 400ppm “unprecedented”-CO2 levels of 2017:
Drought – January 2017 | State of the Climate | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
For the next few “Extreme Weather/Climate” categories, feel free to click on the links to read government data and peer-reviewed science sourced to unfold any concern(s) you may have…
Shock news : Australia has always had heatwaves | Climatism
SEA LEVEL RISE
NASA “Sea Level Rise” Fraud | Climatism
44th Pacific “Sinking Islands” Extortion Forum (COP21 Update 2015) | Climatism
If Sea Level Rise were such a threat, ask yourself one simple Q: Why would Barack Hussein Obama (spruiker-in-chief of climate change alarmism) purchase the Hawaii seaside mansion where Magnum PI was filmed?
While warning us of ‘rising oceans’ in SOTU, did Obama just buy a beachfront mansion? | Watts Up With That?
Maybe its because, outside of his eco-pantheist ideology and Leftist, wealth redistribution agenda, Obama too, knows very well that Islands like Hawaii “Shape-shift” i.e. they grow with Sea Level Rise. In fact, 80% of Island nations around the world are growing, not “Sinking” as climate activists and alarmists will have you believe.
RECENT “EXTREME WEATHER” RELATED SCIENTIFIC STUDIES
China’s not so extreme weather study:
The biggest study of China’s extreme weather finds the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has actually halved since 1960.
In one of the most comprehensive studies on trends in local severe weather patterns to date, an international team of researchers found that the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has decreased by nearly 50 percent on average throughout China since 1960…
Oh and just as a side, Al Gore’s “Extreme Weather” poster child sufferers – POLAR BEARS – are doing more than fine…as CO2 rises!
If we rely on the above scientific hard data and peer-reviewed evidence, it should hopefully become clearer that colourless, odourless, plant food and trace gas CO2 – the gas of life – does not control the climate or the weather.
In my opinion if the temperature gradient between the polar regions and tropics were to increase because of polar cooling, expect to see more and genuine extreme weather occurrences. Ergo, has slight global warming since the 1970’s actually decreased the frequency and strength of extreme weather events? The above evidence strongly supports this case. Especially in the case of Northern Hemisphere Hurricanes, Tornadoes and drought.
Ironically and to this point, in 1974 climatologists blamed extreme weather on “Global Cooling”.
The panic was so real during the “Global Cooling” scare of the 1970’s that UN scientists wanted to melt the Arctic by spreading black soot on it!
02 Feb 1972 – Scientists fear for Arctic Sea ice – Trove
And today, the UN, all those expert climatologists and their sycophant media gleefully blame any extreme weather event, not on “global cooling” but now “global warming”. Nuff said.
TO FINISH. A message, in their own words, from the promulgators of climate change fear, doom and gloom – the UN’s very own IPCC …
Direct from their IPCC SREX report released 2012 :
“We Do Not Know If The Climate Is Becoming More Extreme”
Recommended / Related :
Posted: November 21, 2016 Filed under: Climate Money, Climatism, COP22, Eco-Activists, Empirical Evidence, Environmentalism, Fact Check, Green Agenda, IPCC, UN, UNEP, UNFCCC, Wealth Redistribution | Tags: Climate Change, Climate Change Hoax, Climate Depot, Climatism, COP22, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Global Warming, Marc Morano, Marrakech, The Trump Effect, Trump, UN, wealth redistribution
Image by Josh – Watts Up With That?
With the UN’s annual climate gabfest, held this time in exotic Marrakech, now done and dusted, it is worth drilling down on the exact “science” that these luxurious and opulent meetings are supposedly based upon…
Assessing the current state of the climate should be a necessary precursor to all ‘climate-crisis’ meetings in order to justify not only the hundreds of thousands of tons of
CO2 carbon emissions emitted whilst jetting in the thousands of climate elites from every corner of the globe. But also to account for the millions upon millions of (your) taxpayer dollars spent in order to hold each lavish event.
25,903 participants had the time of their lives…
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
The following “State of the Climate” report via CFACT was presented by Climate Depot’s Marc Morano at COP22. Each point is, of course, backed up by real-world data and peer-reviewed science…
- Global temperatures have been virtually flat for about 18 years according to satellite data, and peer-reviewed literature is now scaling back predictions of future warming.
- The U.S. has had no Category 3 or larger hurricane make landfall since 2005 – the longest spell since the Civil War.
- Strong F3 or larger tornadoes have been in decline since the 1970s.
- Despite claims of snow being ‘a thing of the past,’ cold season snowfall has been rising.
- Sea level rise rates have been steady for over a century, with recent deceleration.
- Droughts and floods are neither historically unusual nor caused by mankind, and there is no evidence we are currently having any unusual weather.
- So-called hottest year claims are based on year-to-year temperature data that differs by only a few HUNDREDTHS of a degree to tenths of a degree Fahrenheit – differences that are within the margin of error in the data. In other words, global temperatures have essentially held very steady with no sign of acceleration.
- A 2015 NASA study found Antarctica was NOT losing ice mass and ‘not currently contributing to sea level rise.’
- 2016 Arctic sea ice was 22% greater than the recent low point of 2012. The Arctic sea ice is now in a 10-year ‘pause’ with ‘no significant change in the past decade’
- Deaths due to extreme weather have declined dramatically.
- Polar bears are doing fine, with their numbers way up since the 1960s.
Climate Truth File 2016 – CFACT (SLR link by Climatism)
I would also add to the list, the stubborn and inconvenient fact that 97% of 102 UN-IPCC CMIP5 predictive climate models DO NOT accord with observed reality.
They are all running ‘too hot’.
This is problematic as these same unverifiable climate models form the basis of the literal trillions of dollars of taxpayer money that directly funds radical climate policy and the schemes and scams that go with it like misguided and “unreliable” energy solutions – wind and solar.
Climate Models Don’t Work | Climatism
Decide for yourself if there is a so called “Climate Crisis” and just how are the estimated trillions of dollars, earmarked to de-carbonise the globe, supposed to change the weather or adjust the temperature of the planet, and by how much exactly? No one really knows.
If you feel CFACT’s list of peer-reviewed and scientific climate realities are “cherry-picked”, ask yourself why no UN climate ‘expert’ or anyone at a climate conference will ever dare discuss these points. Of course they won’t and can’t because each point fundamentally wrecks their climate narrative and political agenda.
Then ask yourself why Marc Morano and his CFACT delegation were forcibly censored and shut-down by UN security for presenting these pesky facts (in front of a life-size Donald Trump cutout no less! Gold).
Note to Marc and other dissenters of the preferred wisdom of climate theology: If you want an invite to a UN climate event, and wish to remain for the entire two weeks enjoying the inner-sanctum of climate groupthink, pampering and chatter, you best pack the preferred memes of the climate crisis industry and use them frequently – “the science is settled” and “97% of all scientists agree”. Both equally deceptive and thoroughly debunked climate memes aimed to stifle debate, intimidate and isolate.
“Science” is never settled, nor does science listen to or work through “consensus”.
What We Do Know About UN Climate Meetings and Radical Agenda
With such little evidence of a ‘climate crisis’, why does the UN insist the world spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year on futile climate change policies? Perhaps Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN’s Framework on Climate Change has the answer?
In Brussels February, 2015 she said, “This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years since the Industrial Revolution.”
In other words, the real agenda is concentrated political authority. Global warming is the hook.
Global warming has long abandoned any connection it has with actual science. It is has become as ideology. A new religion. Australia’s former Prime Minister Tony Abbott likening it to, “socialism masquerading as environmentalism“.
Figueres also added that “Communism is the best model to fight global warming.“
Ideology over Science
In 2013, UN IPCC co-chair of Working Group 3 Dr. Ottmar Endenhoefer unleashed this stunning revelation…
Flashback: IPCC official admits UN climate meetings redistribute wealth in one of the “largest economic conferences since WWII” « JoNova
Follow The Money
The shock election of Donald J. Trump as President-elect of the United States has put Green groups in a literal (money) spin…
WUWT’s Eric Worrell :
The Marrakesh COP22 climate conference has ended – and green groups are just waking up that without US financial support, nobody has committed any money to anything.
“I’m a little worried by the lack of financial support to help poor countries adapt. This conference has been taking place in Africa, it was generally agreed that there should be more money, but in concrete terms unfortunately these decisions failed to materialise,” said Lutz Weischer, team leader on international climate policy at Germanwatch.
It is genuinely possible most of the members of groups like Greenpeace and Germanwatch really didn’t know where all the money was coming from. Sounds crazy, but think about it – all greens had to do in the past is make a lot of noise, and bundles of cash turned up. They never had any reason to question where the cash was coming from.
I suspect climate activists are only now waking to the horrible possibility that after years of partying on the US taxpayer’s dime, they really don’t have that many friends anymore.
The two week conference, catering for 25,903 participants was declared the “conference of action”. Which is why the Paris rule has been delayed to 2018!
What a waste of time and…’
CO2 carbon emissions’.
As with all climate conferences, kicking the can down the road was to be expected and who’s complaining with another guaranteed two years of champagne, foie gras and chatter at exotic locations, on the taxpayer dime…
See more : ‘Breakthrough’ At Midnight: UN Climate Talks Agree To Delay Paris Rules Until 2018 (As Expected) | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
Climatism Related :