CONTRARY to popular myth, Arctic sea ice extent is not in a “death spiral“. In fact, there has been no real shrinking of Arctic sea ice in 10 years, which also corresponds to the fact that there has been no statistically significant “global warming” for nearly 20 years.
ALL this despite record “CO2” emissions over the same period, and record hot air bloviated by the trillion dollar climate crisis industry.
THE following is a remarkable post by Tony Heller from his Deplorable Climate Science Blog showing just how corrupt and politicised the “science” of the Arctic has become via the fake-news media and – sadly – from many our most respected scientific institutions including, yes, NASA…
More Spectacular Arctic Fraud At The New York Times
The New York Times just published another fake climate article – this time about the Arctic. They start the article with the claim that satellites were first used to study the Arctic in 1979.
Given that we traveled to the moon in 1969, it is absurd to suggest that satellites weren’t used to study the Arctic before 1979. Here is a 1964 satellite image of the Arctic which was published in National Geographic in 1965.
Here is a detailed National Geographic Arctic sea ice map from 1971.
Here is a detailed satellite image of Antarctica from 1976, also published in National Geographic.
The 1990 IPCC report included NOAA Arctic satellite data back to 1973, when it was much lower than 1979.
In a spectacular display of scientific malpractice, NOAA now hides all of the pre-1979 peak Arctic sea ice data. By starting right at the peak, they produce a fake linear downwards trend.
This 1985 DOE climate change report had Arctic data back to 1925, which showed little ice from the 1930s to the 1950s.
So why did the New York Times cherry pick 1979 as their start date? Because it came at the end of three of the coldest US winters on record , and Arctic sea ice was at a century peak. The graph below combines the 1985 DOE graph with the 1990 IPCC graph.
If the New York Times authors had bothered to research their own paper, they could have found this out for themselves. It was very warm in the Arctic in 1958
Three years later, the New York Times reported a unanimous consensus that earth was cooling.
By 1970, the Arctic climate was becoming more frigid, the ice was getting “ominously thicker” – and scientists were worried about a new ice age.
The polar ice cap had expanded 12% by 1975, after shrinking 12% before 1958. Icelandic ports were blocked with ice for the first time in the 20th century.
By hiding all the data before the 1979 peak, the New York Times is defrauding its readers. Arctic climate is cyclical – not linear.
Ninety-five years ago, the Arctic was having a meltdown.
Eighty years ago, the Arctic was having a meltdown.
Sixty five years ago, the Arctic was having a meltdown.
Then the New York Times went on to obscure their graph (below) to hide the fact that there has been a large increase in minimum extent since 2012. Note the “End of summer minimum” label is at the 2012 minimum – not the 2017 minimum.
The Arctic minimum extent has been increasing for a decade. The New York Times doesn’t want their readers to know this.
The New York Times is defrauding their readers at many levels. It is the fake news we have learned to expect from them.
See also :
- Arctic Full Of Multi-Year Ice | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog
- Astrology And Climate Science | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog
- Little Change In Arctic Sea Ice Since 1971 | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog
- 97% Of Climate “Experts” Promised You The Arctic Would Be Ice-Free By 2014 | Climatism
- 12 New Scientific Papers: Oceans Cooling Globally As Glaciers Thicken | Climatism
- Crooks Still Pursuing Arctic Ice Scam | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
- CLIMATE Alarmism Has Cost Far More Than Any Global Warming Ever Could | Climatism
The Other (Inconvenient) Pole :
- Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum | NASA
- Record-low 2016 Antarctic sea ice was due to a ‘perfect storm’ of tropical, polar conditions – not ‘climate change’ | Climatism
Global Warming “Pause” Related :
97% Of Climate Scientists Got it Wrong About Effects Of Global Warming, related :
- The global warming backpedalling begins. “It’s less worse than we thought” | Climatism
- Delingpole: Climate Alarmists Finally Admit ‘We Were Wrong About Global Warming’
- How scientists got their global warming sums wrong — and created a £1,000,000,000,000-a-year green industry that bullied experts who dared to question the figures | The Sun UK
- Climate scientists admit they were wrong on climate change effects | Watts Up With That?
INTERESTING to see how the warmist community will spin the “science” from these latest inconvenient findings that contradict IPCC climate model predictions and the endless “Hottest Year Evah“ PR claims.
NO doubt, Climate Crisis Inc … and the UN IPCC won’t go near it. And don’t expect to see empirical evidence of globally cooling oceans and thickening glaciers gleefully reported on CNN, BBC or ABC Australia. Any climate news that doesn’t fit the human-caused warming narrative is expressly ignored by the #FakeNews mainstream media, using their favoured and most effective propaganda weapon – confirmation bias.
MORE from Kenneth Richard via Pierre Gosselin’s excellent site NoTricksZone :
12 New Papers: North Atlantic, Pacific, And Southern Oceans Are Cooling As Glaciers Thicken, Gain Mass
Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.
According to Dieng et al. (2017), for example, the global oceans underwent a slowdown, a pause, or even a slight cooling trend during 2003 to 2013. This undermines expectations from climate models which presume the increase in radiative forcing from human CO2 emissions should substantially increase ocean temperatures.
The authors indicate that the recent trends in ocean temperatures “may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle“, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and not follow radiative forcing trends.
Dieng et al., 2017 We investigate the global mean and regional change of sea surface and land surface temperature over 2003–2013, using a large number of different data sets, and compare with changes observed over the past few decades (starting in 1950). … While confirming cooling of eastern tropical Pacific during the last decade as reported in several recent studies, our results show that the reduced rate of change of the 2003–2013 time span is a global phenomenon. GMST short-term trends since 1950 computed over successive 11-year windows with 1-year overlap show important decadal variability that highly correlates with 11-year trends of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. The GMST 11-year trend distribution is well fitted by a Gaussian function, confirming an unforced origin related to internal climate variability.
We evaluate the time derivative of full-depth ocean heat content to determine the planetary energy imbalance with different approaches: in situ measurements, ocean reanalysis and global sea level budget. For 2003–2013, it amounts to 0.5 +/− 0.1 W m−2, 0.68 +/− 0.1 W m−2 and 0.65 +/− 0.1 W m−2, respectively for the three approaches. Although the uncertainty is quite large because of considerable errors in the climate sensitivity parameter, we find no evidence of decrease in net radiative forcing in the recent years, but rather an increase compared to the previous decades.
We can note that the correlation between GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends and AMO trends is quite high. It amounts 0.88 over the whole time span. At the beginning of the record, the correlation with PDO trends is also high (equal to 0.8) but breaks down after the mid-1980s. The GMST and AMO trends shown in Figure 6 show a low in the 1960s and high in the 1990s, suggestive of a 60-year oscillation, as reported for the global mean sea level by Chambers et al. (2012). Thus the observed temporal evolution of the GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle driven by the AMO.
Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Rapidly Since 2005
According to Piecuch et al. (2017) there has been no net warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the last quarter century. The warming that occurred in the 10 years from 1994-2004 has been completely negated by an even more pronounced cooling trend since 2005. The predominant (87%) cause of the warming was determined to be of the same natural (non-anthropogenic) origin as the subsequent cooling: advection, the movement/circulation of heat via internal processes. In fact, human CO2 emissions are never mentioned as even contributing to the the 1994-2004 warming.
Piecuch et al., 2017 The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004–2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015. … Over the last two decades, the SPNA has undergone a pronounced climate shift. Decadal OHC and SST trends reversed sign around 2004–2005, with a strong warming seen during 1994–2004 and marked cooling observed over 2005–2015. These trend reversals were pronounced (> 0.1 °C yr−1 in magnitude) in the northeastern North Atlantic (south and west of Iceland) and in the Labrador Sea. … To identify basic processes controlling SPNA thermal variations, we diagnose the SPNA heat budget using ECCOv4. Changes in the heat content of an oceanic control volume can be caused by convergences and divergences of advective, diffusive, and surface heat fluxes within the control volume. [Advective heat convergence] explains 87% of the total [ocean heat content] variance, the former [warming] showing similar decadal behavior to the latter [cooling], increasing over 1994–2004, and decreasing over 2005–2015. … These results demonstrate that the recent SPNA decadal trend reversal was mostly owing to advective convergences by ocean circulation … decadal variability during 1993–2015 is in largest part related to advection by horizontal gyres.
Yeager and Robson (2017) also point out that, like it did from the 1960s to 1980s, the North Atlantic “has again been cooling”, a trend which they and others expect to continue. Sea surface temperatures are no warmer today than they were in the 1950s.
Yeager and Robson, 2017 [W]hile the late twentieth century Atlantic was dominated by NAO-driven THC [thermohaline circulation] variability, other mechanisms may dominate in other time periods. … More recently, the SPNA [sub polar North Atlantic] upper ocean has again been cooling, which is also thought to be related to a slowdown in the THC. A continued near-term cooling of the SPNA has been forecast by a number of prediction systems, with implications for pan-Atlantic climate.
The Southern Ocean Has Been Cooling Since The 1970s, Contrary To Models
Latif et al., 2017 The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s, whereas most of the planet has warmed considerably. In contrast, climate models generally simulate Southern Ocean surface warming when driven with observed historical radiative forcing. The mechanisms behind the surface cooling and other prominent changes in the Southern Ocean sector climate during the recent decades, such as expanding sea ice extent, abyssal warming, and CO2 uptake, are still under debate. Observational coverage is sparse, and records are short but rapidly growing, making the Southern Ocean climate system one of the least explored. It is thus difficult to separate current trends from underlying decadal to centennial scale variability.
Turney et al., 2017 Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.
- Stunning Drop In Global Temperatures As El Niño Warming Ends | Climatism
- Understanding The “Hottest Year Evah” | Climatism
- Climate Models Don’t Work | Climatism
The pause within the pause.
By Paul Homewood
Contrary to popular myth, summer sea ice extent in the Arctic is not in a death spiral.
As the above DMI graph shows, August extent has been remarkably stable since 2007.
Back in March, the “experts” were telling us that the record low extent last winter would inevitably lead to lower summer extent.
For instance, Rick Thoman the climate science manager for the National Weather Service’s Alaska region told us:
“If we are starting out very low that gives a jump on the melt season. For the last few years, we have had extremely low ice cover in the summer. That means a lot more solar energy absorbed by the darker open water. That heat tends to carry over from year to year.”
NSIDC’s Ted Scambos said:
“Thin ice and beset by warm weather – not a good way to begin the melt season,”
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No real shrinking of Arctic sea ice in 10 years. No significant “global warming” for nearly 20 years.
All this despite record CO2 emissions and record alarmist hot air spewed from experts and the fake news mainstream media!
Mother Nature’s a beyatch!
By Paul Homewood
Greenland’s melt season ended a month ago, and since last September the ice sheet has grown at close to record rates.
Much was made of the anomalously warm year in 2012, which was quickly linked to climate change.
I doubt whether Guardian readers will be allowed to read about the latest news.
Meanwhile Arctic sea ice extent is running well above the level of the last two years:
This time last year the Guardian wheeled out the serially discredited Peter Wadhams to scare us all with threats of an Arctic death spiral:
The only thing in a death spiral is the IQ of gullible Guardian readers.
CLIMATE experts have been saying this same story for generations:
The Guardian says the Arctic will be ice-free this summer…
BACK IN THE REAL WORLD
ARTIC sea-ice is tracking previous years of stable extent:
UN / WEC CLIMATE CHANGE SCARE-MONGERING
NOW, climate scientists and their “97%” triad of sycophant orgs are promising you that your Arctic will be ice-free by “2040” – plenty more wriggle-room for their catastrophic predictions to play out…
That’s the great thing about the future.
CANADIAN “climate change” study of melting Arctic sea-ice was cancelled due to “hazardous Arctic sea ice”, caused by climate change.
You cannot make this stuff up.
Greenland not behaving as warming alarmists would prefer, or as their CO2 theory suggests!
DO NOT expect to hear this contradictory and “inconvenient” news from the Fake News, Climate-obsessed, Left Wing mainstream media – CNN, MSNBC, BBC, ABC, NYtimes, WaPO, NatGeo etc etc…
“Perhaps the biggest story in climate this year, the rebound of Greenland snow and ice..”
“Very noticeable difference between O7/17/2012 and today 07/17/2017. Greenland looks like a healthy fat bright white furry polar bear.” – Climate Detective
What’s really going on in the Arctic via Paul Homewood’s excellent page NotALotOfPeopleKnowThat
Arctic Sea Ice UpdateJULY 16, 2017
By Paul Homewood
Quick Arctic update.
DMI have now issued the June sea ice data, which shows a steady recovery in extent since the low in 2010.
Significantly, this year’s extent of 11.52 million sq km is greater than in 2006, which was 11.50. (Full data here).
Temperatures across the Arctic have been consistently below average since the end of April.
And with the melt season nearly at an end, the Greenland ice sheet has been growing at close to record levels.
“2017 is running 280k km2 higher than 2007, 430k km2 above average, and 910k km2 more than 2016.”
Arctic sea-ice extent ‘growing’ despite record CO2 “emissions” and the “hottest years evah”?!
I blame Trump.
The Iceberg Festival takes place every June on the Great Northern Peninsula, Newfoundland, now underway.
Weather Canada Iceberg Bulletin
Issued 11:00 AM EDT 2 June 2017
Special ice warning in effect.
Bergy water except 7 tenths of first-year ice including a trace of
old ice in the northern section. Unusual presence of sea ice.
More than 100 icebergs
Arctic ice had a remarkable May. The April NH ice extent in April was a 343k km2 deficit below the decadal average, and May ended with a monthly average surplus of 131k km2. The graph below shows in recent weeks how 2017 took a lead of ~300k km2 above average and is holding it entering June.
On June 1, this year’s ice extent is running 280k km2 above average, and a full 1M higher than 2016. Out of the last twelve years, only…
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Arctic “Death Spiral” Update…