How Did The IPCC’s Alarmism Take Everyone In For So Long?

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to 
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC 
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itohan award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of 
scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” – U.S Government
Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of
NOAA.

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.

Screen Shot 2014-04-07 at , April 7, 10.47.44 pm

Award winning author and Telegraph reporter Christopher Booker sums up the great global warming hoax, and how we have been so ingeniously suckered in by that strange body, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which..will be recognised as having never really been a scientific body at all, but a political pressure group.

via The Telegraph :

How did the IPCC’s alarmism take everyone in for so long?

Climate scaremongers are still twisting the evidence over global warming

4:16PM BST 05 Apr 2014

When future generations come to look back on the alarm over global warming that seized the world towards the end of the 20th century, much will puzzle them as to how such a scare could have arisen. They will wonder why there was such a panic over a 0.4 per cent rise in global temperatures between 1975 and 1998, when similar rises between 1860 and 1880 and 1910 and 1940 had given no cause for concern. They will see these modest rises as just part of a general warming that began at the start of the 19th century, as the world emerged from the Little Ice Age, when the Earth had grown cooler for 400 years.

They will be struck by the extent to which this scare relied on the projections of computer models, which then proved to be hopelessly wrong when, in the years after 1998, their predicted rise in temperature came virtually to a halt. But in particular they will be amazed by the almost religious reverence accorded to that strange body, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which by then will be recognised as having never really been a scientific body at all, but a political pressure group. It had been set up in the 1980s by a small band of politically persuasive scientists who had become fanatically committed to the belief that, because carbon dioxide levels were rising, global temperatures must inevitably follow; an assumption that the evidence would increasingly show was mistaken.

Five times between 1990 and 2014 the IPCC published three massive volumes of technical reports – another emerged last week – and each time we saw the same pattern. Each was supposedly based on thousands of scientific studies, many funded to find evidence to support the received view that man-made climate change was threatening the world with disaster – hurricanes, floods, droughts, melting ice, rising sea levels and the rest. But each time what caught the headlines was a brief “Summary for Policymakers”, carefully crafted by governments and a few committed scientists to hype up the scare by going much further than was justified by the thousands of pages in the technical reports themselves.

Each time it would emerge just how shamelessly these Summaries had distorted the actual evidence, picking out the scary bits, which themselves often turned out not to have been based on proper science at all. The most glaring example was the IPCC’s 2007 report, which hit the headlines with those wildly alarmist predictions that the Himalayan glaciers might all be gone by 2035; that global warming could halve African crop yields by 2050; that droughts would destroy 40 per cent of the Amazon rainforest. Not until 2010 did some of us manage to show that each of these predictions, and many more, came not from genuine scientific studies but from scaremongering propaganda produced by green activists and lobby groups (shown by one exhaustive analysis to make up nearly a third of all the IPCC’s sources).

Most of the particularly alarmist predictions came from a report by the IPCC’s Working Group II. This was concerned with assessing the impact on the world of those changes to the climate predicted by the equally flawed computer models relied on by Working Group I, which was charged with assessing the science of climate change. The technical report published last week was its sequel, also from Working Group II, and we can at once see, from its much more cautious treatment of the subjects that caused such trouble last time, that they knew they couldn’t afford any repeat of that disaster.

 

Looking at the Summary for Policymakers, however, we see how the scaremongers are still playing their same old game. On pages 12-14, for instance, they are still trying to whip up fears about extreme weather events, killer heatwaves, vanishing tropical islands, massive crop failures and so on, although little of this is justified by the report itself, and even less by the evidence of the real world, where these things are no more happening as predicted than the temperature rises predicted by their computer models.

This latest report has aroused markedly less excitement than did its hysterical predecessor in 2007. They have cried wolf once too often. The only people still being wholly taken in, it seems – apart from the usual suspects in the media – are all those mindless politicians still babbling on about how in Paris next year they are finally going to get that great global agreement which, if only we put up enough wind farms and taxes, will somehow enable us to stop the climate changing.

They can dream on. But alas, the rest of us must still pay the price for their dreams.

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See also : 

Related :

Agenda of the United Nations and the Political Elite :

Climatism Related :


Climate Scientists 95% Sure The Science Is Unsettled

It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true
.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

•••

There has been no atmospheric global warming, at all, for 17 years and 5 months, despite 35% of all human CO2 emissions, since 1751, emitted over the same period.

No GLOBAL WARMING 17 YEARS 5 MONTHS

Satellites show no global warming for 17 years 5 months | Watts Up With That?

The global warming “pause” has become one of the biggest mysteries in climate science. A thorn in the side of the IPCC and the warmist community who assured us that the atmosphere would warm if ‘business as usual’ greenhouse emissions continued.

They were wrong. And their state-of-the-art, billion dollar climate models, which governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.

95% of CMIP5 Climate models bear no resemblance to reality and remain scandalously overheated.

CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong « Roy Spencer, PhD

There have been at least eight separate explanations for the standstill in global warming, with the latest from UNSW Professor Matthew England, claiming “Stronger than normal trade winds in the central Pacific are the main cause of a 13-year halt in global surface temperature increases …”. His paper released, three years after he accused sceptics of “lying that the IPCC projections are overstatements”.

With no consensus and little confidence as to what is actually driving the current 17 year global warming ‘Hiatus’, how does the IPCC conclude in their latest AR5 assessment report, that they are ‘even more confident’ (95%) that human’s are to blame for global warming that stopped in 1998?

Their confidence in man-made global warming has increased, even as temperatures have declined. In fact, the last IPCC report to experience any warming was SAR in 1995

aaa SAR

No Warming For 70% Of The IPCC’s History | Real Science

And yet they cry…

“The Science Is Settled”

“Overwhelming consensus”

“97% of Scientists”

“The Debate Is Over”

“Climate Action Now…before it’s too late”

“If you deny climate change, you deny your grandchildren a future”

etc etc…

Andrew Bolt’s column in today’s Herald Sun, demonstrates how the 95% confidence meme, sounds more like another cleverly worded PR campaign out of the IPCC and warmist community, to promote the cause for draconian emissions controls.

Confusion should give alarmists pause for thought

I

FEBRUARY 12, 2014 8:00PM

By Andrew Bolt

YOU would think scientists of the NSW Climate Change Research Centre had done enough damage to their warmist crusade.

A month ago, its Professor Chris Turney got his ship of researchers stuck in Antarctic sea ice he had claimed was melting away.

“Sea ice is disappearing due to climate change, but here ice is building up,” Turney’s expedition wailed.

In fact Turney’s team — planning to examine parts of the Antarctic “highly susceptible to melting and collapse from ocean warming” — apparently hadn’t realised sea ice there had grown over three decades to record levels.

How we laughed.

Blog with Andrew Bolt

Turney’s climate centre, at the University of NSW, sponsored this disaster, which ended with two icebreakers rescuing the mortified professor and his warming crusaders.

It’s farce like that which helps explain why the CSIRO reported last week only 47 per cent of Australians buy its spin that the climate is changing and we’re to blame.

Australians now rate global warming of “low importance”, the CSIRO sighed, and warmists faced “the challenge of finding the right language” to gee them up. But up bobs another Climate Change Research Centre scientist to show the warmists’ problem isn’t the “right language” but the false hype.

Two years ago, Professor Matthew England appeared on the ABC’s Q&A to attack Nick Minchin, the former Howard government industry minister and a sceptic. Minchin had raised a puzzling fact: the planet had not warmed further since 1998.

“Basically we’ve had a plateauing of temperature rise,” he said. CO2 emissions had soared, but “we haven’t had the commensurate rise in temperature that the IPCC predicted”.

England’s response?

“What Nick just said is actually not true. The IPCC projections from 1990 have borne out very accurately.”

England later even accused sceptics of “lying that the IPCC projections are overstatements”.

So imagine my surprise when England admitted last week there had been a “hiatus” and “plateau in global average temperatures” after all. Startled readers asked England to explain how he could call sceptics liars two years ago for mentioning a “plateau” he now agreed was real.

England was defiant: “In terms of my comments on Q&A, I stand by them. Back then, the observations had not departed from the model projection range. In the past year or two, 2012 average and also 2013, that’s no longer the case.”

What bull. In fact, five years ago the pause was already so obvious that Family First senator Steve Fielding confronted Penny Wong, Labor’s climate change minister.

“Global warming quite clearly over the last decade hasn’t been actually occurring,” Fielding said, and showed Wong the temperature charts. Wong and her advisers — chief scientist Penny Sackett and climate scientist Will Steffen — said he was wrong. Journalists mocked him. Except, of course, the warming pause is now so obvious even England now admits it.

True, the warmists always have excuses and the ABC reports each without noting how the latest contradicts the last. Last week it reported England’s new paper explaining the warming pause: “Stronger than normal trade winds in the central Pacific are the main cause of a 13-year halt in global surface temperature increases …”

England now claims those stronger winds somehow drove the missing warming into the deep ocean.

But only eight years ago the ABC reported the opposite: “The vast looping system of air currents that fuels Pacific trade winds … has weakened by 3.5 per cent over the past 140 years and the culprit is probably human-induced climate change.”

Eh?

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Skeptical Science: heads in the sand

Australian Climate Madness

Even Naturehas acknowledged that the Pause is real, and that the models are missing something:

Average global temperatures hit a record high in 1998 — and then the warming stalled. For several years, scientists wrote off the stall as noise in the climate system: the natural variations in the atmosphere, oceans and biosphere that drive warm or cool spells around the globe. But the pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence in the field. Although there have been jumps and dips, average atmospheric temperatures have risen little since 1998, in seeming defiance of projections of climate models and the ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. […]

But none of the climate simulations carried out for the IPCC produced this particular hiatus at this particular time. That has led sceptics — and some scientists — to the controversial conclusion that the models might be overestimating the effect of greenhouse gases…

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Unspinning the IPCC alarmism

via Herald Sun

Dr. Don J. Easterbrook, Professor of Geology, Western Washington University:

From the IPCC 2013 Report

image

After all these years, IPCC still doesn’t get it—we’ve been thawing out from the Little Ice Age for several hundred years but still are not yet back to pre-Little Ice Age temperatures that prevailed for 90% of the past 10,000 years…

Their misrepresentation of data is ridiculous…

[The] IPCC report purports to show warming of 0.5°C (0.9°F) since 1980, yet surface temperature measurements indicate no warming over the past 17 years … and satellite temperature data shows the August 13 temperature only 0.12°C (0.21°F) above the 1908 temperature (Spencer, 2013). IPCC shows a decadal warming of 0.6°C (1°F) since 1980 but the temperature over the past decade has actually cooled, not warmed…

From the IPCC Report

image

There just isn’t any nice way to say this—it’s is an outright lie. A vast published literature exists showing that recent warming is not only not unusual, but more intense warming has occurred many times in the past centuries and millennia. As a reviewer of the IPCC report, I called this to their attention, so they cannot have been unaware of it. For example, more than 20 periods of warming in the past five centuries can be found in the Greenland GISP2 ice core (Fig. 3) (Easterbrook, 2011), the Medieval and Roman Warm Periods were warmer than recent warming (Fig. 4), and about 90% of the past 10,000 years were warmer than present (Fig. 5).

image

Figure. 3. More than 20 periods of warming in the past 500 years. (Greenland GISP2 ice core, Easterbrook, 2011)

image

Figure 4. Temperatures of the Medieval and Roman Warm Periods were higher than recent temperatures.

image

Figure 5. ~90 of temperatures during the past 10,000 years were significantly warmer than recent warming.

(Cuffy and Clow, 1997; Alley, 2000)…

From the 2013 IPCC Report

image

This is a gross misrepresentation of data. The Antarctic ice sheet has not been losing mass—the East Antarctic ice sheet, which contains about 90% of the world’s fresh water, is not melting–it’s growing! The same is true for Antarctic shelf ice. The only part of Antarctica that may be losing ice is the West Antarctic Peninsula, which contains less than 10% of Antarctic ice. Temperature records at the South Pole show no warming since records began in 1957.

Some melting has occurred in Greenland during the 1978-1998 warming, but that is not at all unusual. Temperatures in Greenland were warmer in the 1930s than during the recent warming…

Arctic sea ice declined during the 1978-1998 warm period, but has waxed and waned in this way with every period of warming and cooling so that is not in any way unusual. Arctic sea ice expanded by 60% in 2013…. The total extent of global sea ice has not diminished in recent decades.

The statement that Northern Hemisphere snow cover has “continued to decrease in extent extent” is false… Snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere shows no decline since 1967 and five of the six snowiest winters have occurred since 2003 (Fig. 7).

image

Figure 7. Snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere since 1967.

Unspinning the IPCC alarmism.

 

Must See Also :


Lindzen: Understanding The IPCC AR5 Climate Assessment

Climatism comment : Important read from Richard Lindzen via WUWT :

  • “Carbon restriction policies, to have any effect on climate, would require that the most extreme projections of dangerous climate actually be correct, and would require massive reductions in the use of energy to be universally adopted. There is little question that such reductions would have negative impacts on income, development, the environment, and food availability and cost – especially for the poor. This would clearly be immoral.”
  • “Needless to add, support of global warming alarm hardly constitutes intelligent respect for science.”

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Dr. Richard Lindzen

Each IPCC report seems to be required to conclude that the case for an international agreement to curb carbon dioxide has grown stronger. That is to say the IPCC report (and especially the press release accompanying the summary) is a political document, and as George Orwell noted, political language “is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.”

With respect to climate, we have had 17 years without warming; all models show greater tropical warming than has been observed since 1978; and arctic sea ice is suddenly showing surprising growth. And yet, as the discrepancies between models and observations increase, the IPCC insists that its confidence in the model predictions is greater than ever.

Referring to the 17 year ‘pause,’ the IPCC allows for two possibilities: that the sensitivity of the climate to…

View original post 533 more words


IPCC Reaches A Tipping Point

Climatism comment :

 

  • For a lot of people including the bureaucracy in Government and the environmental movement, the issue is power. It’s hard to imagine a better leverage point than carbon dioxide to assume control over a society. It’s essential to the production of energy, it’s essential to breathing. If you demonise it and gain control over it, you so-to-speak, control everything. That’s attractive to people. It’s been openly stated for over forty years that one should try to use this issue for a variety of purposes, ranging from North/South redistribution, to energy independence, to God knows what…”

—–

  • “CO² for different people has different attractions. After all, what is it? – it’s not a pollutant, it’s a product of every living creature’s breathing, it’s the product of all plant respiration, it is essential for plant life and photosynthesis, it’s a product of all industrial burning, it’s a product of driving – I mean, if you ever wanted a leverage point to control everything from exhalation to driving, this would be a dream. So it has a kind of fundamental attractiveness to bureaucratic mentality.”

Real Science

The IPCC has now completely disconnected with science, and its sole purpose for existence is to maintain funding and give totalitarian politicians an excuse to destroy freedom and free markets.

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IPCC In Complete Denial That The Sun Is Causing Global Cooling

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

•••

The IPCC is the United Nations body most responsible for spreading panic about global warming and the body with a strong vested interest in keeping that panic alive.

So it came with no surprise that last weeks “Summary For Policymakers” (a document written to scare the public and politicians into providing more funding into their own research and their own political agenda) concluded with 95% certainty that human’s have caused most of the warming since 1950. Their confidence upgraded from 90% in the 2007 AR4 climate report. The increasing certainty quite outrageous when you consider the IPCC has gained confidence in catastrophic warming (with each subsequent report) even as temperatures have declined :

screenhunter_1013-sep-28-00-13

Another interesting and contradictory fact is the IPCC has experienced No Warming For 70% Of Its Entire History!

via Real Science :

No Warming For 70% Of The IPCC’s History

Posted on September 27, 2013 by 

We are now at AR5 with zero warming since AR4. The last IPCC report which actually experienced any warming was SAR in 1995. In fact, the vast majority of the IPCC’s history has seen zero warming, and prior to that the warming was primarily due to rebound from Mt. Pinatubo cooling.

This complete lack of warming through most of the IPCC’s history has led them to 95% certainty that humans are heating the world out of control.

That level of certainty “has increased with every report,” notes Dr. Hayhoe, an expert reviewer for the IPCC. “Because we have more data, we have more science, we have more observations.”

For IPCC, Confidence Only Grows in Human Contribution to Climate Change – weather.com

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In fact there has been no statistically-significant global warming for the majority of the satellite era or around 17-23 years, despite skyrocketing emissions over the same period :

trend

Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at , December 8, 4.42.52 PM

Source – C3: 20 Years of Satellite Global Measurements: No Significant Warming, Trend Robustly Below IPCC Expert Predictions

The observed temperature reality of there being no global warming over the past 15-17 years had alarm bells ringing for the global warming cult prior to the release of the IPCC’s latest ‘climate bible’ report. Armed with such ‘bad news’, some policy makers and governments, fearing the observational facts could hinder their ability to implement climate taxes and draconian emission controls, possibly limit climate related funding and tarnish scientific reputations, sort to have the lack of global warming eliminated from the latest report.

For the alarmist IPCC scientists, it’s a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t situation. Bringing up the warming stop surely will be ammo for the skeptics, but so would ignoring it. Should we feel sorry for them? I don’t think so. It was they themselves who manoeuvred their own jewels between the jaws of the vise. Last chance to pull them out!

Die Welt Veteran Journalist: “Ignoring Warming Stop Would Be Ridiculous”, Missing Heat “Perhaps Just Doesn’t Exist”

Screen Shot 2013-10-08 at , October 8, 6.49.09 PM

The report is still in a draft version and will be finalised over the next five days with heated discussion centring on how to explain the fact that since 1998 the earth’s temperature has barely risen.

It is claimed some governments have even tried to intervene to remove references to the 15 year climate change ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’.

Row over IPCC report as nations ‘try to hide lack of climate change’ – Telegraph

•••

The warming ‘Pause’ was vaguely mentioned in the latest IPCC report, albeit claiming the “Missing heat” is hiding in the deep oceans, where quite conveniently we have no accurate measuring capabilities.

What the IPCC should be spending their billions of dollars of taxpayers money on, is answering the BIG climate question of why has the planet been cooling since 2002? Because a step back into a new Ice-Age, which is what the data tells us, has far worse implications than the IPCC’s modelled warming of 1-2°C by 2100, which would most likely be beneficial to humanity.

Former Climate professor Dr Tim Ball explains what’s really happening with our climate and importantly discusses what is going on with that big yellow fire-ball in the sky which the IPCC deems plays no part in climate change.

Via WND Radio

CLIMATE GURU PUTS ‘GLOBAL WARMING’ ON ICE

Low sunspot activity means Earth chilling until at least 2030

Screen Shot 2013-10-08 at , October 8, 5.22.47 PM

Far from being the final word on climate change, last week’s United Nations report suggesting near certainty that human activity is causing a rise in Earth’s temperatures is actually further proof that the conventional wisdom is dead wrong and the Earth is cooling right on schedule, according to one of the leading scientists who is skeptical of the climate-change premise.

Last week, the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, reported it was 95 percent certain that climate change was the result of human activity, specifically the burning of fossil fuels that emit “greenhouse gases.”

“That’s the result that they get when you premeditate your science,” said Dr. Tim Ball, former professor of climatology at the University of Winnipeg. “When you set out to establish a certain scientific outcome and you program your computers to do that, you shouldn’t be surprised if that’s the result you get. The problem is what they’re getting out of their computers is not fitting with what’s actually happening. Of course, that’s been the problem with the IPCC all along.”

Ball told WND the deception of the IPCC and its allies can be seen in how the reports are released, with the policy statement drawing headlines while the scientific information comes later and is largely ignored.

“(The summary for policymakers) is a document written to scare to public and scare the politicians into providing more funding for their own research and their own political agenda,” he said. “The actual science report, which it supposedly is based on isn’t going to be released right away. They’ve always done it his way because the summary for policymakers completely disagrees with what the science report is saying. They know that the media and the public are not going to read the science report. And they also know that if any of them get into it, they won’t understand it anyway.”

The latest data actually show temperatures have dropped in recent years. The IPCC and other scientists have branded this as a “pause” in climate change. Ball said that characterization implies that temperatures are temporarily holding steady and will inevitably rise again soon. He said that conclusion is dead wrong.

“The temperature is going down and has for 17 years while carbon dioxide increases,” Ball said. “According to their hypothesis and model, that’s simply not supposed to happen. Rather than doing what they should do and coming out and saying, ‘Our science is wrong, our models are wrong and we apologize for all the inconvenience we’ve caused you,’ they’re just plowing ahead.”

The long-held contention of those who warn of climate catastrophe is that rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere lead to higher temperatures. So if that belief is incorrect, why are temperatures getting cooler?

“The sun is causing the cooling that’s going on. The sun reached a peak of activity around 2000 and has been declining ever since,” said Ball, who noted that the cooling trend will continue for years to come.

“We’re heading toward what occurred around the year 1800. It was called the Dalton Minimum of low sunspot activities,” he explained. “We certainly are down to that in number of sunspots this year. That means the cooling will continue at least until 2030 and yet the government is preparing for warming, which is outrageous. Some people think that this cycle of sunspot activity and global cooling will take us down to as cold as it was around 1680, which was the nadir of the Little Ice Age.”

More evidence backing up Ball’s position comes from the polar regions. New reports from the National Snow and Ice Data Center suggest Antarctic ice levels are at record highs. Ball said the southern hemisphere has been cooling for some time. He believes the clinching evidence comes from the Arctic Circle.

“This was the year that even one scientist at NASA predicted that the Arctic ice in the summer would be gone completely,” he said. “Well, there’s 60 percent more ice this year than last year and the reason is because of the cooling sun and the cooling temperatures.”

Ball also rejects the contention that climate change brings on more extreme weather events, not just higher temperatures. He said hurricane season was very quiet this year and tornadoes were down as well. He chalked up record high and low temperatures to the jet stream shifting from a west-east flow to more of a north-south line.

The “premeditated” science is a major culprit for the climate-change concerns, according to Ball. But he also blames the media.

“The main reason they were able to get away with what they’ve gotten away with is that a majority of the mainstream media were complicit in what (the IPCC and other scientists) were doing,” Ball said. “This is where the Founding Fathers have been corrupted because they believed the media would be the watchdogs, the gatekeepers. The mainstream media have failed completely.”

Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2013/10/climate-guru-puts-global-warming-on-ice/#zl75UEUU9AMvf7mi.99

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