The Great “Extreme Weather” Climate Change Propaganda Con

extreme-weather-news1st

The “Extreme Weather” meme has earned its place in climate change history as the fundamental driver of climate scaremongering, used deceptively and effectively to promote the catastrophic man-made climate change theory by instilling fear, doom and gloom directly into the human psyche through simple imagery and repetitive correlation rhetoric.

Even though “weather” is not climate, the daily bombardment via news and multi-media of climatic disaster clips provide more than enough evidence for the casual observer to convince them that the climate is in fact changing as a direct result of human CO2 emissions.

Much of the mainstream media gleefully encourages and promotes the catastrophic man-made warming narrative. Hence, sensationalising a typhoon in the Phillipines or a forest fire in California has become fair-game in the virtuous and IMHO nefarious push to enhance the supposed human CO2-induced climate catastrophe.

However, when you look at hard data and scientific evidence pertaining to extreme weather through the lens of “Government data” and “Peer-Reviewed Science”, as opposed to scary pictures and videos, absorbed via billions of iPhones and hysterical climate-obsessed mainstream media, things are not quite as bad as they seem. In fact, by most metrics, extreme weather events are becoming ‘less’ extreme as CO2 increases. This should come as relieving news to all, though sadly, yet predictably, such data will come as extremely inconvenient news to the virtuous “Save The Planet” lobby and especially those invested in the trillion dollar global warming climate change industry that feeds and thrives off doomsday scenarios.

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Below are listed the more common metrics associated with the much maligned and deceptively ascribed “extreme weather” meme. A term which I would label as a very clever weapon of mass climate propaganda to elevate hysteria, emotions and fear with the ultimate end to mould groupthink belief in human CO2-induced climate change…

HURRICANES

The US is currently experiencing a record 12 year (4,380 days) drought of major landfall hurricanes (Cat3+). The last major hurricane to hit was “Wilma” in 2005:

2016-hurricane-drought.jpg

The major hurricane drought for Category 3 or greater storms continues. Updated December 2016 by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. (via WUWT)

Interesting historical reference point:

NOAA keeps hurricane records back to 1850. The average number of US hurricane strikes per presidency is about eleven. Obama’s presidency had five hurricane strikes, the last being “Matthew” (Cat 1 at landfall, October 8,2016).

Grover Cleveland (1885 – 1889 & 1893 – 1897) and Franklin D Roosevelt (1933 – 1945) both presided over 26 hurricanes, almost six times as many as Obama:

Hurricane count by President.jpg

The presidency of Barack Obama had the lowest frequency of US hurricane strikes of any president:

Hurricane count by President2.gif

Charts via Steve S Goddard – Only updated to 2014

NOAA – Chronological List of All Hurricanes

During Obama’s presidency, atmospheric CO2 levels were between 384-400 ppm. At the time of Grover Cleveland, atmospheric CO2 levels were at 294 ppm. (NASA CO2 Data)

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TORNADOES

Last years tornado season marked the fifth consecutive year of below normal tornado activity in the US:

US Tornadoes.png

NOAA | Storm Prediction Center WCM Page

NOAA

Over the past 55 years there has been a large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes:

ef3-ef5-t_thumb

There has been no trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014:

EF1-EF5-t.png

Historical Records and Trends | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Paul Homewood, of the excellent climate blog NALOPKT, notes that NOAA has not bothered to update Tornado data for 2015/16. “Could it be they would rather the public did not find out the truth?”

Last year may set the record for the least number of Tornadoes on record:

torngraph-big.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

In summary, with an interesting caveat from NOAA:

  • No trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014 tornadoes.
  • Large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.
  • 2016 perhaps a record for the least number of Tornadoes on record.

ALL THIS despite rising CO2 and advanced technologies, including doppler radar and greater attention to reporting – Tornado chasers, increased population etc – which can create “a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency.” – NOAA

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TROPICAL CYCLONES

Jamal Munshi of Sonoma State University published this paper last June, A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity:

ABSTRACT

The ACE index is used to compare tropical cyclone activity worldwide among seven decades from 1945 to 2014. Some increase in tropical cyclone activity is found relative to the earliest decades. No trend is found after the decade 1965-1974. A comparison of the six cyclone basins in the study shows that the Western Pacific Basin is the most active basin and the North Indian Basin the least. The advantages of using a general linear model for trend analysis are described.

Trop Cyclone trends.png

A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity by Jamal Munshi :: SSRN

Again, despite rising CO2, there is no trend in tropical cyclone activity after the decade 1965-1974. With a sharp decline in activity over the past two decades.

AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology graph shows a significant downtrend in all tropical storms, with no discernible trend for severe tropical cyclones:

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at , February 22, 11.52.48 AM.png

Tropical Cyclone Trends | Bureau Of Meteorology

Again, it’s clear from the BoM graph that as CO2 has increased, the frequency and strength of cyclones has decreased.

NB, the (warmist) BoM is still yet to update its cyclone graph from 2011. Are they simply lazy? Have no data since 2011? Or are they trying to hide inconvenient climate data that doesn’t fit the CO2-induced extreme weather narrative? You decide.

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SNOW

Snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David VinerSenior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)

Climate change alarmists (experts) use tangible and emotional climatic horror scenarios to scare you into belief. One of the more classic instances of such fear-mongering, gone horribly wrong, was that by Dr David Viner – esteemed climatologist from the UK’s CRU, in 2000.

From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

After over 15 years, the Independent removed that article, and the URL used to come up like this:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past-404.png

It originally read like this:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past Original.png

The original link now boots back to their homepage.

Our friends at WUWT have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – The Independent (PDF)

In fairness, perhaps the good Dr Viner was colluding consulting with the virtuous partners of climate catastrophe expertise, the UN IPCC…

IPCC Less Snow.png

IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001 – Complete online versions | GRID-Arendal – Publications – Other

Warmer winters IPCC.png

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The (warmist) CSIRO jumped on the “end of snow” bandwagon in August 2003:


Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths.  At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

In 2014, the New York Times signalled “The End of Snow”:

ScreenHunter_314 Feb. 07 11.00

The End of Snow? – NYTimes.com

BACK TO THE REAL WORLD

2017 Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was amongst the highest on record last month:

NH Snow extent.png

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent is trending upwards, despite rising CO2 emissions:

Winter SNow NH.png

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

And for Australia’s CSIRO who assured the end of snow by 2020/2030…

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at , February 22, 8.05.58 PM.png

Heavy snow forecast for the Australian Alps despite ski season ending a month ago

Australia’s snowfields have been overdosed by snow over the past 5+ years.

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FLOODS / DROUGHT 

“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007

This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake
.”
– Dr Tim Flannery,
Climate Council

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology 2008:

IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.

“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones….

“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent…”

The Bureau’s David Jones in 2007:

As Jones wrote to the University of East Anglia the year before: “Truth be know, climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone of our cities is on the verge of running out of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse…”

The CSIRO, 2009:

A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change

”It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,” said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal. 

THE REAL WORLD (as of 2016 data)

For the continent of Australia as a whole, there is more rain, not less – and certainly no permanent drought:

aus-rainfall.jpeg

2016:

Winter was Australia’s second wettest on record – just missing out on a new high by a couple of millimetres, leaving many regions already sodden.

“It’s about as wet as it has been in the past 110 years [of records] across Australia,” David Jones, head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.

Floods! Near-record rainfall! When will the head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology (David Jones) explain why his 2008 prediction of a “new climate” of drought turned out so, so wrong?

THE CONSEQUENCES OF PROFESSIONAL CLIMATE ALARMISTS’ DUD-PREDICTIONS

How warmists cost us billions

The price of global warming alarmism is enormous. Take the cost of the mothballed desalination plants, built after warmists persuaded politiciansthe rains would dry up:

Sydney’s privatised desalination plant, which is costing residents more than $500,000 a day to keep on standby, will not be needed for at least another four or five years. The sale of the plant last year to a private company for $2.3 billion means residents are locked into paying about $10 billion in fees for the next 50 years, whether the plant is operating or not. Not one drop of water has come out of the Kurnell facility since it stopped operating more than a year ago. With dam levels at 93.4 per cent, the plant has been placed into “water security” mode, a long-term shutdown which is likely to continue for some time.”My best estimate is it will still be about four to five years before we turn the desalination plant on,” Sydney Water’s managing director Kevin Young told 7.30 New South Wales

Mind you, big cities did need more water security as they grew. Dams were the cheap option, but who made those almost illegal?

How warmists cost us billions | Herald Sun

More: The legacy of Tim Flannery..White elephant desalination plants | Climatism

Australia is now awash with water. Nearly every dam is full. And we are left with x4 mothballed desal plants that cost $12Billion to build and are costing the taxpayer $1million per day (each) under contract until 2030/50.

Unfortunately, the worst Flannery and his climate change alarmist comrades can ever be accused of, for the litany of failed alarmist dud-predictions resulting in massive taxpayer-dollar waste, is an excess of “Save the planet”virtue.

CALIFORNIA

Last September, New York’s Daily News forecast centuries of global warming drought for California:

One of the myriad incorrect assertions by climate-change deniers is that scientists who have proven manmade causes for the current global warming ignore periods of warming in the Earth’s past that were not caused by industrial pollution.

Since it’s essentially, and of course ironically, entirely non-scientists who make this claim, the deniers would do well to read a recent UCLA study that indicates California’s current six-year severe drought could be exacerbated enough by global warming to extend the dry period for centuries.

Five months later the “Permanent” drought is over and the prediction drowned:
California has now seen more moisture in the last 8 weeks than it typically does in an entire year… San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and several other cities have recorded one of their wettest Januarys on record and an incredibly wet 8 weeks overall.

And for those who desire to claim the recent California floods are “unprecedented” and “extreme”, the below graph shows that inflow to Oroville so far this year is far from unprecedented, with a much greater total in 1997.

oroville_inflow_1995-2017feb_620.png

And we can see from the state rainfall totals that January 2017 was nothing special:

Orville Precip.png

HISTORICAL DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE

USA drought during the low-CO2 1930’s:

conus_palmerindex_june_1934.png

USA drought during 400ppm “unprecedented”-CO2 levels of 2017:

Drought USA 2017.png

Drought – January 2017 | State of the Climate | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

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For the next few “Extreme Weather/Climate” categories, feel free to click on the links to read government data and peer-reviewed science sourced to unfold any concern(s) you may have…

HEATWAVES

Shock news : Australia has always had heatwaves | Climatism

SEA LEVEL RISE

NASA “Sea Level Rise” Fraud | Climatism

44th Pacific “Sinking Islands” Extortion Forum (COP21 Update 2015) | Climatism

If Sea Level Rise were such a threat, ask yourself one simple Q: Why would Barack Hussein Obama (spruiker-in-chief of climate change alarmism) purchase the Hawaii seaside mansion where Magnum PI was filmed?

While warning us of ‘rising oceans’ in SOTU, did Obama just buy a beachfront mansion? | Watts Up With That?

Maybe its because, outside of his eco-pantheist ideology and Leftist, wealth redistribution agenda, Obama too, knows very well that Islands like Hawaii “Shape-shift” i.e. they grow with Sea Level Rise. In fact, 80% of Island nations around the world are growing, not “Sinking” as climate activists and alarmists will have you believe.

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RECENT “EXTREME WEATHER” RELATED SCIENTIFIC STUDIES

China’s not so extreme weather study:

China’s weather now better

The biggest study of China’s extreme weather finds the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has actually halved since 1960.

In one of the most comprehensive studies on trends in local severe weather patterns to date, an international team of researchers found that the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has decreased by nearly 50 percent on average throughout China since 1960…

“Most of the data published on trends in severe weather has been incomplete or collected for a limited short period,” said Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology and atmospheric science and director, Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, Penn State. “The record we used is, to the best of our knowledge, the largest, both in time scale and area of land covered.”

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/global-warming-helps-chinas-weather-now-better/news-story/12b5c26ab1a5f27fffc3b416f95cee7c

When will warmist scientists admit the apocalypse they predicted simply isn’t coming?

Oh and just as a side, Al Gore’s “Extreme Weather” poster child sufferers – POLAR BEARS – are doing more than fine…as CO2 rises!

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If we rely on the above scientific hard data and peer-reviewed evidence, it should hopefully become clearer that colourless, odourless, plant food and trace gas CO2 – the gas of life – does not control the climate or the weather.

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In my opinion if the temperature gradient between the polar regions and tropics were to increase because of polar cooling, expect to see more and genuine extreme weather occurrences. Ergo, has slight global warming since the 1970’s actually decreased the frequency and strength of extreme weather events? The above evidence strongly supports this case. Especially in the case of Northern Hemisphere Hurricanes, Tornadoes and drought.

Ironically and to this point, in 1974 climatologists blamed extreme weather on “Global Cooling”.

The panic was so real during the “Global Cooling” scare of the 1970’s that UN scientists wanted to melt the Arctic by spreading black soot on it!

Arctic UN Black soot.jpg

02 Feb 1972 – Scientists fear for Arctic Sea ice – Trove

And today, the UN, all those expert climatologists and their sycophant media gleefully blame any extreme weather event, not on “global cooling” but now “global warming”. Nuff said.

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TO FINISH. A message, in their own words, from the promulgators of climate change fear, doom and gloom – the UN’s very own IPCC …

Direct from their IPCC SREX report released 2012 :

We Do Not Know If The Climate Is Becoming More Extreme

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Recommended / Related :


Miami Beach Turning Into Modern Day Atlantis–Fake News BBC

Reading this P.Homewood piece makes me more proud than ever to be a “climate” sceptic.

Proud, because as a non-scientist and mere simpleton, even I can examine and recognise the BBC’s disgraceful effort to spread climate fear and scientific BS via the “Miami Atlantis” threat.

Another classic example of why you cannot believe ANYTHING about “climate change” or “global warming” from the mainstream climate-obsessed sycophant media.

—-

Dear BBC,

An excellent piece via WUWT from guest blogger Kip Hansen should help to unwind your Atlantis, global-warming-induced, sea-level rise/flooding hysteria.

https://climatism.wordpress.com/2016/12/07/miamis-vice/

Sincerely,

Mr simpleton. Aka, 5 minutes of unpaid research.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t QV

image

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08k19mn

The fake news BBC World at One today took the chance to add a bit of Project Climate Fear to their unashamedly anti Trump agenda, with a a piece on how rising seas are turning Miami Beach into a modern day Atlantis.

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UN IPCC : “Long-Term Prediction of Future Climate States Is Not Possible.”

UN IPCC Wealth Redist.jpg

UN IPCC TAR 2001 

Working Group I: The Scientific Basis

Executive Summary

“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm

AND YET we base trillions upon trillions of dollars of other peoples (your) money on Paris COP junkets to formulate “Save The Planet” policy, windmills and solar panels that are supposed to curb (man-made) Global Warming Climate Change to below an arbitrary ‘2 degrees C’ by 2100.

Insanity by their very own words and deeds.

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Related :


How Political Lunacy Sabotaged Australia’s Once Reliable & Affordable Power Suply

Alternative title:

“How Eco-Pantheism, Misanthropic Earth-Worship and Political Virtue-Signalling Has Sabotaged Australia’s Once Reliable & Affordable Power Supply”

STOP THESE THINGS

If what Australia’s political brains trust has done to its once reliable and affordable power supply had been done by external agents, it would have been branded an act of terrorism.

The so-called ‘wind power capital’ of Australia, South Australia has become an international laughing stock: statewide blackouts, routine load shedding and rocketing power prices might be enough, you would think, to make its Labor government see sense.

Far from it, it is now looking to spend $150 million on a giant battery that will return power to the grid and ‘power’ SA for all of four minutes and to set up somewhere between 200 and 250 MW of diesel generation capacity to keep the lights on, whenever the wind stops blowing.

The absurdity of throwing $550 million at a perfectly avoidable problem, when Jay Weatherill had the option of paying a mere $30 million to Alinta to keep its…

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Exposing the failed polar bear scare to a an enthusiastic and influential audience

“Polar bear science got some long overdue scrutiny by a large number of people at this meeting. Not unexpectedly, a good many folks were surprised and outraged to learn how the polar bear/sea ice situation has actually unfolded compared to the predicted outcome and on-going media hype.”

The same can be said for all state-sponsored climate “science” with its litany of alarmist, false, fake and dud-predictions.

Congrats Susan Crockford and thanks for having the guts to tell the scientific truth about Polar Bears while risking personal and professional attacks, smears and slander from the “Climate Industrial Complex.”

polarbearscience

I’ve just returned from a few days in Washington DC, where I presented the details on the global warming icon that refused to die as modeled (see my slide #12 below) to an enthusiastic and influential audience at The Heartland Institute‘s 12th International Climate Change Conference (ICCC-12).

Crockford 2017_Slide 12 screencap

Polar bear science got some long overdue scrutiny by a large number of people at this meeting. Not unexpectedly, a good many folks were surprised and outraged to learn how the polar bear/sea ice situation has actually unfolded compared to the predicted outcome and on-going media hype.

I spent more time than I expected giving interviews (several that were video taped) – with the first request coming 2 minutes after I walked into my hotel room after check-in!

I also spent as much time as I’d hoped signing copies of my polar bear science books (see sidebar) and talking…

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Bjorn Lomborg: Earth Hour is bad for the poor

DURING “Earth Hour”, I was thinking about the 1.3 billion people who have no access to electricity, at all.

How insane they must think we are, actually celebrating the turning off of life-supporting electricity?!

Lomborg is spot-on noting, “Earth Hour is largely celebrated in rich, urban areas. Around the world, there are around 1.3 billion people living in the developing world who will not get a choice whether to participate or not. That’s because they will be living without reliable electricity on Saturday night, just like they do every other night.”

Such symbolic eco-gestures by wealthy, first-world, urban eco-elites represent eco-narcissism and virtuous sanctimony on a truly deplorable, selfish and naive scale.

Green Jihad

Since Earth Hour occurred today, environmental skeptic Bjorn Lomborg weighed in on the event with an op-ed published in USA Today. In it he states that not only is Earth Hour a waste of time but the people behind it ignore the needs of poor people who need more light and energy which is mostly powered by fossil fuel use.

Earth Hour is largely celebrated in rich, urban areas. Around the world, there are around 1.3 billion people living in the developing world who will not get a choice whether to participate or not. That’s because they will be living without reliable electricity on Saturday night, just like they do every other night.

Increasingly, the world’s rich nations insist that these people — the world’s poor — should have no new fossil fuel access. Foreign aid is increasingly tied to renewable energy projects such as building solar and wind…

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Lamar Smith lays out political strategy at climate conference 

““That’s why this hearing is going to be so much fun,” Smith said with a huge grin on his normally impassive face.”

Mann-made climate change on the Congressional senate stand! I cannot wait. Nor can the popcorn 🍿!

Tallbloke's Talkshop


The warmist AAAS sucks lemons in advance of the US Senate climate change hearing next week. They resent his ‘agenda’ as it opposes theirs.

Representative Lamar Smith (R–TX) rarely expresses his true feelings in public.

But speaking yesterday to a like-minded crowd of climate change doubters and skeptics, the chairman of the science committee in the U.S. House of Representatives acknowledged that the committee is now a tool to advance his political agenda rather than a forum to examine important issues facing the U.S. research community.

“Next week we’re going to have a hearing on our favorite subject of climate change and also on the scientific method, which has been repeatedly ignored by the so-called self-professed climate scientists,” Smith told the Heartland Institute’s 12th annual conference on climate change in Washington, D.C.

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The World’s First State Of The Climate Survey Based on Observations Only

A climate report based on real-world observations, not overheated UN IPCC climate models!

What is “science” coming to?!

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Image credit: garrisoninstitute.org

Needless to say Dr Ole Humlum’s survey is unlikely to be popular in climate alarm circles.

London, 22 March: A report on the State of the Climate in 2016 which is based exclusively on observations rather than climate models is published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). 

Compiled by Dr Ole Humlum, Professor of Physical Geography at the University Centre in Svalbard (Norway), the new climate survey is in sharp contrast to the habitual alarmism of other reports that are mainly based on computer modelling and climate predictions.

Among the key findings of the survey are:

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