ARCTIC ALARMISM UPDATE : Cambridge University Professor Accused Of “Crying Wolf”

“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon…” – Prof. Paul Wadhams 2007 (‘Arctic will be ice free by 2013’ – BBC)

“greater than even chance” that the North Pole could be ice-free for the first time next month. – Prof. Paul Wadhams 2016 (‘A Farewell to Ice‘)

Arctic ice “may well disappear” this September – Prof. Paul Wadhams 2016

Arctic-Wolf.jpg

•••

Climate experts at war over prediction of ice-free Arctic

  • The Times
  • 11:30AM August 25, 2016

A Cambridge University professor has been accused of “crying wolf” by predicting the imminent disappearance of Arctic ice.

Peter Wadhams has been criticised by scientists who fear that he could undermine the credibility of climate science by making doom-laden forecasts.

He repeatedly predicted that the Arctic would be “ice-free” by last summer, by which he meant it would have less than one million sq km of ice. His forecasts, reported around the world, turned out to be wrong.

Drift ice off the Arctic coast. Picture: iStock

Satellite measurements revealed there was a minimum of 4.6 million sq km of Arctic ice last summer, well below the long-term average but above the record low in 2012 of 3.6 million sq km.

In June this year, Professor Wadhams, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Cambridge, predicted that Arctic ice “may well disappear” this September. He added: “Even if the ice doesn’t completely disappear, it is very likely that this will be a record low year.”

A recent press release promoting his new book, Farewell to Ice, claimed that there was a “greater than even chance” that the North Pole could be ice-free for the first time next month.

The US National Snow and Ice Data Center, which monitors Arctic ice, said last week: “It is unlikely that Arctic sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.” Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, analysed Professor Wadhams’ forecasts on a climate science website and questioned whether they should be taken seriously.

He wrote: “There are very serious risks from continued climatic changes and a melting Arctic but we do not serve the public and policymakers well by exaggerating those risks. We will soon see an ice-free summer in the Arctic but there is a real danger of ‘crying wolf’.”

Dr Hawkins said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN’s climate science advisory body, had forecast that the Arctic would be “reliably ice-free”, meaning more than five consecutive years below one million sq km, by the mid-21st century.

Dr Hawkins said: “Putting a precise date on when we see the first days or weeks that are ‘ice-free’ is unwise because of the chaotic nature of the climate system and uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions.”

Richard Betts, head of climate impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre, also expressed concern. Writing on the same climate science website, he said: “When someone talks up imminent catastrophe, they might think they are getting a quick win by getting a scary story out there, but in the long term it will be an own goal.”

Last year, Professor Wadhams claimed that assassins may have murdered three British scientists who were seeking to reveal how rapidly global warming was melting Arctic ice. He complained about a report in The Times on his claims, saying he had been misquoted. The Independent Press Standards Organisation dismissed his complaint, stating “the article had accurately reported his position as he had explained it to the journalist”.

Professor Wadhams declined to comment apart from suggesting that he knew more about the Arctic than Dr Hawkins because he had been there on many research trips.

The Times

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The Real World

  • Arctic sea-ice is tracking 2015 levels at around 4.6 million sq km.
  • Current sea-ice level is higher than the 2007 summer of 4.13 million sq km, when Wadhams made his dire forecast in the BBC article “Arctic will be ice free by 2013
  • 2016 sea-ice levels are a mile away from Wadhams’ 1,000,000 million sq km “ice free” tipping point.
  • Current Arctic sea-ice levels are well above the record low set in 2012 of 3.6 million sq km.

extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous

extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png (1201×962)

Arctic Recovery 

There has been a massive expansion of thick Arctic Sea ice since 2012

IceThickness-2012-2016.gif

via Real Science

Arctic summer ended a week early

meanT_2016

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

•••

Arctic Sea-Ice related 


Great Barrier Reef in near pristine condition: dive boat operators

This latest dose of Great Barrier Reef fear-mongering recently beamed across the world, care of climate activist groups and their complicit media, has no doubt done untold damage to Australia’s international reputation. Most critically and sadly to its tourist industry, endangering the livelihoods of the good people who are employed in the region.

Who will be made accountable or held responsible for the blatant lies, exaggeration of data and wreckless alarmism trotted out in order to forward their climate agenda? Falsehoods that do far more harm than good.

Of course, no one will be held accountable. Because again, the worst any reef or climate change alarmist can ever be accused of is an excess of “save the planet” virtue.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

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Extreme Weather Is Not Getting Worse – Dr Roger Pielke Jr

Dear climate change alarmist media, politicians and the warming faithful,

*Extreme weather is NOT getting worse*

The inconvenient data laid out here on one the favoured weapons of mass climate hysteria – “Extreme Weather”, by climate change disaster expert – Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., a Professor in the Environmental Studies Program at the University of Colorado…

“Floods suck when they occur. The good news is U.S. flood damage is sharply down over 70 years,”

In a message aimed at climate activists and many in the media, Pielke cautioned:

“Remember, disasters can happen any time and they suck. But it is also good to understand long-term trends based on data, not hype.”

Pielke also pointed to the hard scientific data that shows other types of extreme weather are *not getting worse and may in fact be improving*.

“Is U.S. drought getting worse? No,” Pielke wrote

Read on for more hard scientific data that completely contradicts warming alarmist dogma that your CO2 emissions cause “extreme weather”…

NB, the next time you view, read or hear your favoured media hyperventilating over an ‘Extreme Weather’ event, remember that there weren’t as many smart phones last century, and keep in mind the old saying “if it bleeds, it leads.”

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/08/23/floods-are-not-increasing-dr-roger-pielke-jr-slams-global-warming-link-to-floods-extreme-weather-how-does-media-get-away-with-this/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ClimateDepot+%28Climate+Depot%29

From Climate Depot:

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., a Professor in the Environmental Studies Program at the University of Colorado and a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), slammed the linkage of global warming to the recent Louisiana floods and other types of extreme weather. (See: Bill Nye: Climate change is reason for Louisiana floods)

Pielke authored the 2014 book “The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change.”

“Flood disasters are sharply down. U.S. floods not increasing either,” Pielke Jr. declared on August 23. Pielke rebuked New York Times columnist Paul Krugman for linking floods to climate change. Krugman blamed “climate change” for ‘a proliferation of disasters like the one in Louisiana.’

“How does Krugman get away with this?” Pielke asked while showcasing this scientific graph.

“Floods suck when they occur. The good news is U.S. flood damage…

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Piers Corbyn On The Religion Of Climate Change

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.”Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

Al-Gore-climate-church

•••

Via Green Jihad:

Piers Corbyn, a meteorologist (and brother to Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn), says the religion of climate change is a con. Much of it is being pushed by big money, and politicians that are twi…

Source: Piers Corbyn on religion of climate change


The ‘Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016’ turned out to be not so great for sea ice doomsters

Evangelical climate change orgs, experts and mainstream CAGW-sympathetic media: BBC, National Geographic, Sierra Club, ABC, The Guardian, Whadam and Al Gore et al., assured us (prayed for) that Arctic summer sea-ice would have disappeared by 2014.

Despite record and increasing CO2 emissions, sea-ice levels in the Arctic have remained largely the same for nearly a decade.

Just don’t mention the other pole, the Antarctic, which continues to expand at record levels, setting record low temps as it grows. Inconvenient realities contradictory to what climate ‘experts’ and those billion dollar computer models predicted. Sshhhh.

https://climatism.wordpress.com/2015/09/02/you-were-lied-to-about-arctic-sea-ice-dissapearing/

Watts Up With That?

Last week I mentioned how WeatherUnderground was touting the ‘Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016’ as being a repeat of the ice crusher cyclone in the summer of 2012. People that want to see Arctic sea ice reach new lows, so that they can shout things like “See, told you! Climate change!” were banking on it to bring sea ice extent to new record scarcity, accompanied by much wailing and gnashing of teeth, while secretly grinning to themselves “take that, deniers”. It’s a strange bunch of people, in my view, that rally around wanting to see such things happen.

So far, NSIDC hasn’t shown much of an impact from the GAC16, and in the last couple of days, ice has upticked slightly as it regrouped (magnified inset mine):

N_stddev_timeseries-08-22-16

Source: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The storm last week, if it had major impact, would have put the plot closer to the green 2012 line. We…

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John Kerry Targets Your Air Conditioner

John, no better time to practice what you preach and ban air conditioning in all of your agency’s offices.
This can be your planet-healing legacy.
Respect.

PA Pundits - International

We will take him seriously once all air conditioning in federal office buildings is turned off for good

Larry-Bell_avatar-80x80By Larry Bell ~

Having tamed the threat of a nuclear Iran with a daft stroke of diplomacy, Secretary of State John Kerry has now redirected his attention to an adversary equally as dangerous as the Islamic State terrorism lurking within our midst.

Just how dangerous? As he pointed out, “It’s hard for some people to grasp it, but what we-you-are doing here right now is of equal importance because it has the ability to literally save life on the planet itself.”

fan-628x353Kerry was referring to fighting diabolical influences of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) insidiously chilling in our very homes and offices. Speaking at a July conference in Vienna, he described them as ” . . . exceptionally potent drivers of climate change — thousands of times more potent, for example, than CO2.”

The…

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Virtually indistinguishable – Comparing early 20th Century warming to late 20th Century warming

If human CO2 influence was negligible during early 20th Century warming, what influence (if any) did CO2 have in late 20th Century warming and any future theorised warming?

CO2 sensitivity – the great unknown and unanswered climate question, yet we base trillions of dollars of taxpayers money on radical climate policy and climate fixes (wind/solar), based on predictive models that assume CO2 is the fundamental ‘climate control knob’.

Doesn’t sound very sciency or smart to me. Though, welcome to “Climate Crisis Inc.”, the trillion dollar eco-crisis we had to have to satisfy a multitude of political and professional ambitions.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Andy May

Many writers, including Professor Richard Lindzen and Ed Caryl have noticed the remarkable similarity in global warming observed from around 1910 to 1944 and 1975 to 2009. The similarity in slopes exists in all global surface temperature datasets. Figure 1 shows the HadCRUT version 4 dataset and the NASA GISS land (GHCN v3) and ocean (ERSST v4) temperature dataset. We’ve identified the two periods of interest on the figure. All datasets also show some cooling between 1945 and 1975.

clip_image002

Figure 1

Figure 2 shows the two periods overlain with data from the HadCRUT version 4 dataset. This display is scaled to actual average temperature. Unlike Figure one this figure and the next one use smoothed monthly data. In that way, we can see some of the variation within each year.

clip_image004

Figure 2

The left side of Figure 2 represents 1910 for the blue line…

View original post 2,685 more words


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