100% Of Climate Models Prove that 97% of Climate Scientists Were Wrong!

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AS egg-on-face moments go, it was a double-yolker. Last week a group of climate scientists published a paper that admitted the estimates of global warming used for years to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on non-carbon energy sources were, er, wrong. | THE TIMES

IN February 2016, climate scientist Dr. John Christy presented testimony to Congress demonstrating that the UN IPCC’s CMIP5 climate models grossly exaggerate and over estimate the impact of atmospheric CO2 levels on global temperatures. Dr. Christy noted in his testimony that “models over-warm the tropical atmosphere by a factor of approximately three″.

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UN IPCC CMIP5 Climate models Vs Observations – presented by John Christy PhD to US Senate Congress on Climate Change

 

SEPTEMBER 2017

Dr. Christy was 100% correct …

A landmark paper by warmist scientists in Nature Geoscience now concedes the world has indeed not warmed as predicted, thanks to a slowdown in the first 15 years of this century. One of its authors, Michael Grubb, professor of international energy and climate change at University College London, admits his past predictions of runaway warming were too alarmist.

“When the facts change, I change my mind. We are in a better place than I thought.”

ANOTHER author, Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at Oxford, confessed that too many of the mathematical models used by climate scientists to predict future warming “were on the hot side” — meaning they exaggerated.

“We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models.”

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“We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.” Myles Allen – professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford 

 

SO, the sceptics – the “climate deniers” – were spot-on, again.

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The global warming backpedalling begins. “It’s less worse than we thought” | Tallbloke’s Talkshop

AND yet we have spent literally trillions of dollars of other peoples’ (taxpayers) money on alarmist global warming climate change policies, schemes and rent-seeking scams (windmills, solar panels, mothballed desal plants, pink bats, carbon taxes etc) on the advice of overheated, predictive computer models that do not even observe real-world reality!?

DON’T expect an apology or your money back anytime soon. The climate juggernaut will keep digging at your hip pocket a little while longer – too much money is on the line and too many reputations are now at stake.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS

Via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT :

The pause is alive and well!

 

 

There has been a desperate attempt to divert attention away from the findings of the new paper. This article mentions a letter to the Times by the phoneys, Lords Krebs and Stern.

I have also seen a similar letter in the Mail from Myles Allen. It stated that the difference of 0.3C was really rather insignificant, and that we were still all going to die if we did mend our evil ways, only slightly later!

But the difference is actually really huge, bearing in mind that this is over a period of just 15 years, and particularly when the authors admit that emissions of CO2 have been much greater than originally assumed.

Climate change predictions — what went wrong? | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

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Related :

97% Of Climate Scientists Got it Wrong Related :

The Writing Was On The Wall :

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UNMASKING The Great Arctic Sea-Ice “Death Spiral” Scam

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More scientific evidence that polar bears are doing just fine – a 30% increase in population with some of them “as fat as pigs.”

CONTRARY to popular myth, Arctic sea ice extent is not in a “death spiral“. In fact, there has been no real shrinking of Arctic sea ice in 10 years, which also corresponds to the fact that there has been no statistically significant “global warming” for nearly 20 years.

ALL this despite record “CO2” emissions over the same period, and record hot air bloviated by the trillion dollar climate crisis industry.

THE following is a remarkable post by Tony Heller from his Deplorable Climate Science Blog showing just how corrupt and politicised the “science” of the Arctic has become via the fake-news media and – sadly – from many our most respected scientific institutions including, yes, NASA…


More Spectacular Arctic Fraud At The New York Times

 

The New York Times just published another fake climate article – this time about the Arctic.  They start the article with the claim that satellites were first used to study the Arctic in 1979.

 

Given that we traveled to the moon in 1969, it is absurd to suggest that satellites weren’t used to study the Arctic before 1979. Here is a 1964 satellite image of the Arctic which was published in National Geographic in 1965.

 

Here is a detailed National Geographic Arctic sea ice map from 1971.

 

Here is a detailed satellite image of Antarctica from 1976, also published in National Geographic.

 

The 1990 IPCC report included NOAA Arctic satellite data back to 1973, when it was much lower than 1979.

 

In a spectacular display of scientific malpractice,  NOAA now hides all of the pre-1979 peak Arctic sea ice data. By starting right at the peak, they produce a fake linear downwards trend.

 

This 1985 DOE climate change report had Arctic data back to 1925, which showed little ice from the 1930s to the 1950s.

So why did the New York Times cherry pick 1979 as their start date? Because it came at the end of three of the coldest US winters on record , and Arctic sea ice was at a century peak. The graph below combines the 1985 DOE graph with the 1990 IPCC graph.

If the New York Times authors had bothered to research their own paper, they could have found this out for themselves. It was very warm in the Arctic in 1958

 

Three years later, the New York Times reported a unanimous consensus that earth was cooling.

 

By 1970, the Arctic climate was becoming more frigid, the ice was getting “ominously thicker” – and scientists were worried about a new ice age.

 

The polar ice cap had expanded 12% by 1975, after shrinking 12% before 1958. Icelandic ports were blocked with ice for the first time in the 20th century.

By hiding all the data before the 1979 peak, the New York Times is defrauding its readers. Arctic climate is cyclical – not linear.

Ninety-five years ago, the Arctic was having a meltdown.

 

 

 

 

Eighty years ago, the Arctic was having a meltdown.

 

Sixty five years ago, the Arctic was having a meltdown.

 

Then the New York Times  went on to obscure their graph (below) to hide the fact that there has been a large increase in minimum extent since 2012. Note the “End of summer minimum” label is at the 2012 minimum – not the 2017 minimum.

 

The Arctic minimum extent has been increasing for a decade. The New York Times doesn’t want their readers to know this.

 

The New York Times is defrauding their readers at many levels. It is the fake news we have learned to expect from them.

More Spectacular Arctic Fraud At The New York Times | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog

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See also :

The Other (Inconvenient) Pole :

Global Warming “Pause” Related :

97% Of Climate Scientists Got it Wrong About Effects Of Global Warming, related :


Simon Holmes à Court – Wind Weasel

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Simon Holmes a Court’s Hepburn operation is yet to return a cent to its eco-gullible investors.

Few things are so deadly as a misguided sense of compassion.” – Charles Colson


What “Community” Wind Farms are really like

Via StopTheseThings :

As STT readers know all too well – the wind weasel is low.  But the lowest of the low are those kings of smarm that promote and run so called “Community” wind farms.

Australia has its own “community” wind farm at Leonard’s Hill in Victoria.

Known as “Hepburn Wind”, it was set up by a bunch of smart Alecs who pulled up in Mercs and Beemers one day and decided to impose their brand of “groovy” corporate tyranny on a tight-knit little community who had no idea what was coming.

The people behind it couldn’t care less about the impact on ordinary people – they’re “saving the planet” – and the suffering of those trying to live next to their little monuments is a sacrifice that the backers are more than willing to make – of course they are – they all live in plush digs in the quiet, leafy suburbs of Melbourne, 120km away.

If you think the stories of Hepburn Wind’s victims are any less tragic than the stories at Fairhaven, think again.  Here are just two of the many tragic victims at Leonard’s Hill.

These long suffering souls have Simon Holmes a Court to thank for their endless, daily misery.

Simon has been running around like the proverbial headless chook over the last couple of months.  Apparently, Simon is very worried about what a Coalition government will do for his plans for another “Community” wind farm.

He’s had a go at trying to ingratiate himself with SA’s favourite Greek, Nick Xenophon and – when his smarmy overtures failed – he resorted to veiled threats about what opposing wind power would mean to Nick’s political future. Nick politely showed him the door.

We guess the “threat” took the form of lining up with Vestas and Co to pour $millions into the Green’s efforts to unseat Nick to help save ex-Martian, Sarah Hanson-Young.  Nice try – it wasn’t money well spent –  Sarah’s got a date with the political dustbin on Saturday.

Not content with that little effort, Slimin’ Simon has tried to worm his way into the long suffering Macarthur community.  He was all “sweetness and light” in his correspondence with Annie Gardner – Simon wanted to “visit” so he could “experience” what it was like to live next a “real” wind farm.

The ploy lasted just as long as it took Annie to rumble him and put terms to him about his “visit” that included making sure he came with Liberal MPs, Craig Kelly, Chris Back and Angus Taylor in tow – and that there would be full media coverage, including Graham Lloyd from The Australian – for the duration of his “farm stay”.

Needless to say, Simon has gone quiet on that score.

STT has a tip for our Macarthur readers – if he turns up – lock the doors and windows.  He’ll eventually go away.

And STT has a couple of tips for Simon – worry less about your plans to put together another community atrocity – and worry more about what happens when the Coalition starts investigating the REC fraud.

The Clean Energy Regulator might be sitting on their hands at the minute, but give it a week or two.  The new head boy has already signalled he’s not going to turn a blind eye to REC fraud.  And STT hears the REC fraud story is about to run in a number of major papers. But remember folks – you heard it here first.

Hepburn Wind is in the same league as Acciona’s Waubra wind farm.  STT’s seen work from independent acoustic experts that shows Hepburn’s operation does not and can not comply with the noise conditions of its planning consent.  Collecting RECs when in breach of State law – for eg, the noise conditions of a planning consent – is unlawful.

So, Simon – you might want to worry more about chickens coming home to roost at Hepburn –  rather than running about like one with its head removed – using your considerable “charm” to pressure Senators and MPs, and trying to inveigle yourself at Macarthur.

Simon – the “game” is over – after Saturday, the grown ups will be back in charge.  The end is nigh.

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Fuel Poverty (RET) Related :

World Coal-Fired Power Surge Related :

Unreliable Energy Related :


CLIMATE Alarmism Has Cost Far More Than Any Global Warming Ever Could

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“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007

GLOBAL WARMING alarmists like to bully you into belief by attacking your apparent ‘overindulgent’ lifestyle, claiming that your AC, SUV, even your diet will leave a diminished planet for our “children’s, children’s, children!”. Dire forecasts always pushed out by generations so no one can keep tabs.

 

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YET, as the Malthusians preach their favourite eco-memes from the comfort of their air-conditioned / centrally-heated, inner suburban eco-palaces, they care little about those who live on planet ‘struggle-street’, right now.

SUCH catastrophic prognostications will inevitably continue from hysterical climate pontificators, even as a landmark paper by warmist scientists in ‘Nature Geoscience’ now concedes the world has indeed not warmed as predicted, thanks to a slowdown in the first 15 years of this century. Begs the questions; who are the real science “deniers”? And, is that “science” really “settled”?

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Long term rainfall map for Melbourne showing the very short dry period when Professor Flannery made his predictions. Everything back to normal now! | Climate Change Denier

ANDREW BOLT writes an excellent piece in The Herald Sun on one of our favourite global warming climate change hysterics, Tim Flannery, whose alarmist predictions have led to radical climate policies that have cost Australian’s literally billions upon billions in green schemes and scams – virtuous offerings to the green faith that have helped to destroy Australia’s once thriving economy and ruined people’s livelihoods.

A MUST READ…

Billions wasted. Desalination plants mothballed. Power prices through the roof. Pensioners unable to pay for their heating. It’s time to count the shocking price we’ve paid for listening to global warming scaremongers like Tim Flannery.

Andrew Bolt: We’re paying for scientists’ climate of fear

AS THE panic ends, check out the shocking price we’ve paid by treating global warming scaremongers like Tim Flannery as our gurus.

Listening to these preachers cost us billions. In fact, we’re still paying the bills — just as some climate scientists are waking up to themselves and saying, “whoops”.

BLOG WITH ANDREW BOLT

BLAME YOUR POWER BILL SPIKE ON POLITICIANS’ GLOBAL WARMING CON

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES ALL PAIN AND NO GAIN

Haven’t you heard? It turns out the science was not settled, after all, and sceptics were right to laugh at Flannery (pictured) and his richly paid gabble of Chicken Littles.

A landmark paper by warmist scientists in Nature Geoscience now concedes the world has indeed not warmed as predicted, thanks to a slowdown in the first 15 years of this century. One of its authors, Michael Grubb, professor of international energy and climate change at University College London, admits his past predictions of runaway warming were too alarmist.

“When the facts change, I change my mind. We are in a better place than I thought.”

Another author, Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at Oxford, confessed that too many of the mathematical models used by climate scientists to predict future warming “were on the hot side” — meaning they exaggerated.

“We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models.”

MORE ANDREW BOLT

Former chief climate commissioner Tim Flannery. Picture: Sam Mooy

That is actually not news to sceptics. Dr Roy Spencer, who runs one of the four main measurements of world temperature from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, has pointed it out for years, but most journalists ignored him. Likewise, they’ve largely ignored that the predicted climate catastrophes have not happened, either.

We have had not more cyclones but fewer; not less rain in Australia but more; not fewer polar bears but more; and not worse crops but record ones, here and overseas.

So why have we wasted a fortune to cut the emissions we now learn aren’t actually causing a warming catastrophe — or certainly not as fast as first said? Why do we have horrendously expensive and mothballed desalination plants in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, still waiting for the drought we were told would be permanent?

Why have we also destroyed our cheap and reliable electricity system, replacing “dirty” coal-fired generators with so much dodgy wind and solar power that we now face blackouts and world-record prices?

True, it’s not all Flannery’s fault. It obviously takes more than one panic merchant to create such mayhem. But Flannery’s career should stand as a reproach to us all, particularly to hypsters who promoted him — the ABC, above all — and to the sheep who believed him.

Flannery is the mammologist who somehow emerged as our high priest of global warming, warning of Armageddon unless we repented our sins against Mother Earth. Our emissions had caused the rains to fail, he proclaimed. Perth could become the world’s first “ghost metropolis”, he warned in 2004.

Former Greens leader and environmentalist Bob Brown. Picture: Chris Kidd

“In Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane, water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months,” he cried in 2007. And he topped it all that year with this: “Even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems.”

As I said, he wasn’t alone. Greens leader Bob Brown in 2006 agreed we faced the “spectre of permanent drought” and The Age quoted armies of alarmists, including the Bureau of Meteorology’s Bertrand Timbal: “We are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.”

So up went the desalination plants. Then down came the laughing rain, flooding Brisbane and filling dams.

You’d think that cosmic joke would have ended Flannery’s career and the global warming scare in one great thunderclap.

But no. Flannery, made our Chief Climate Commissioner by the Gillard Labor government, still heads the Climate Council and still bobs up as an ABC presenter and honoured guest.

And he’s still at it. For instance, two years ago he exploited the category 5 Cyclone Pan that hit Vanuatu, telling the ABC: “Elements of the damage wreaked by that cyclone are being influenced quite strongly by climate change.

“Sadly we’re more likely to see them more frequently in the future.”

In fact, that very next cyclone season our Bureau of Meteorology recorded a first in its satellite records — not a single severe cyclone hit Australia, compared with 11 in 1982.

Why did we ever listen to Flannery and scaremongers like him?

See now what their panic-making has inspired — global warming schemes that have hurt us infinitely more than global warming itself.

MORE ANDREW BOLT

BLOG WITH ANDREW BOLT

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More On Flannery Here :

Dud-Prediction and Failed IPCC Model Related :

97% Of Climate Scientists Got it Wrong About Effects Of Global Warming, related :

 

 


UN IPCC : Climate “Has Almost Nothing To Do With Environmental Policy.”

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The UN IPCC doesn’t factor in the sun as a powerful driver of climate, because there’s no point in blaming something that wasn’t your fault.

See also :


12 New Scientific Papers: Oceans Cooling Globally As Glaciers Thicken

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“Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.”

INTERESTING to see how the warmist community will spin the “science” from these latest inconvenient findings that contradict IPCC climate model predictions and the endless Hottest Year Evah PR claims.

NO doubt, Climate Crisis Inc … and the UN IPCC won’t go near it. And don’t expect to see empirical evidence of globally cooling oceans and thickening glaciers gleefully reported on CNN, BBC or ABC Australia. Any climate news that doesn’t fit the human-caused warming narrative is expressly ignored by the #FakeNews mainstream media, using their favoured and most effective propaganda weapon – confirmation bias.

MORE from Kenneth Richard via Pierre Gosselin’s excellent site NoTricksZone :

12 New Papers: North Atlantic, Pacific, And Southern Oceans Are Cooling As Glaciers Thicken, Gain Mass

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Graph Source Duchez et al., 2016

Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.

According to Dieng et al. (2017), for example, the global oceans underwent a slowdown, a pause, or even a slight cooling trend during 2003 to 2013.  This  undermines expectations from climate models which presume the increase in radiative forcing from human CO2 emissions should substantially increase ocean temperatures.

The authors indicate that the recent trends in ocean temperatures “may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle“, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and not follow radiative forcing trends.

Dieng et al., 2017    We investigate the global mean and regional change of sea surface and land surface temperature over 2003–2013, using a large number of different data sets, and compare with changes observed over the past few decades (starting in 1950). … While confirming cooling of eastern tropical Pacific during the last decade as reported in several recent studies, our results show that the reduced rate of change of the 2003–2013 time span is a global phenomenon. GMST short-term trends since 1950 computed over successive 11-year windows with 1-year overlap show important decadal variability that highly correlates with 11-year trends of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indexThe GMST 11-year trend distribution is well fitted by a Gaussian function, confirming an unforced origin related to internal climate variability.

We evaluate the time derivative of full-depth ocean heat content to determine the planetary energy imbalance with different approaches: in situ measurements, ocean reanalysis and global sea level budget.  For 2003–2013, it amounts to 0.5 +/− 0.1 W m−2, 0.68 +/− 0.1 W m−2 and 0.65 +/− 0.1 W m−2, respectively for the three approaches.    Although the uncertainty is quite large because of considerable errors in the climate sensitivity parameter, we find no evidence of decrease in net radiative forcing in the recent years, but rather an increase compared to the previous decades.
We can note that the correlation between GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends and AMO trends is quite high. It amounts 0.88 over the whole time span. At the beginning of the record, the correlation with PDO trends is also high (equal to 0.8) but breaks down after the mid-1980s.  The GMST and AMO trends shown in Figure 6 show a low in the 1960s and high in the 1990s, suggestive of a 60-year oscillation, as reported for the global mean sea level by Chambers et al. (2012). Thus the observed temporal evolution of the GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle driven by the AMO.

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Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Rapidly Since 2005

According to Piecuch et al. (2017) there has been no net warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the last quarter century.  The warming that occurred in the 10 years from 1994-2004 has been completely negated by an even more pronounced cooling trend since 2005.   The predominant (87%) cause of the warming was determined to be of the same natural (non-anthropogenic) origin as the subsequent cooling: advection, the movement/circulation of heat via internal processes.   In fact, human CO2 emissions are never mentioned as even contributing to the the 1994-2004 warming.

Piecuch et al., 2017    The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004–2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015. … Over the last two decades, the SPNA has undergone a pronounced climate shift. Decadal OHC and SST trends reversed sign around 2004–2005, with a strong warming seen during 1994–2004 and marked cooling observed over 2005–2015. These trend reversals were pronounced (> 0.1 °C yr−1 in magnitude) in the northeastern North Atlantic (south and west of Iceland) and in the Labrador Sea. … To identify basic processes controlling SPNA thermal variations, we diagnose the SPNA heat budget using ECCOv4. Changes in the heat content of an oceanic control volume can be caused by convergences and divergences of advective, diffusive, and surface heat fluxes within the control volume.  [Advective heat convergence] explains 87% of the total [ocean heat content] variance, the former [warming] showing similar decadal behavior to the latter [cooling], increasing over 1994–2004, and decreasing over 2005–2015. … These results demonstrate that the recent SPNA decadal trend reversal was mostly owing to advective convergences by ocean circulation … decadal variability during 1993–2015 is in largest part related to advection by horizontal gyres.

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Yeager and Robson (2017) also point out that, like it did from the 1960s to 1980s, the North Atlantic “has again been cooling”, a trend which they and others expect to continue.   Sea surface temperatures are no warmer today than they were in the 1950s.

Yeager and Robson, 2017    [W]hile the late twentieth century Atlantic was dominated by NAO-driven THC [thermohaline circulation] variability, other mechanisms may dominate in other time periods. … More recently, the SPNA [sub polar North Atlantic] upper ocean has again been cooling, which is also thought to be related to a slowdown in the THC. A continued near-term cooling of the SPNA has been forecast by a number of prediction systems, with implications for pan-Atlantic climate.

The Southern Ocean Has Been Cooling Since The 1970s, Contrary To Models

Latif et al., 2017    The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s, whereas most of the planet has warmed considerably. In contrast, climate models generally simulate Southern Ocean surface warming when driven with observed historical radiative forcing. The mechanisms behind the surface cooling and other prominent changes in the Southern Ocean sector climate during the recent decades, such as expanding sea ice extent, abyssal warming, and CO2 uptake, are still under debate. Observational coverage is sparse, and records are short but rapidly growing, making the Southern Ocean climate system one of the least explored. It is thus difficult to separate current trends from underlying decadal to centennial scale variability.
Turney et al., 2017    Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.

READ Full Report here including; Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice expansion, Pacific Ocean cooling, Glaciers, Ice sheets stable and gaining mass…

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Related :


HURRICANE Season 2017 : Inconvenient Tweets

Irma go away

THE last major hurricane before Harvey and Irma to make landfall on the Continental United States was Wilma in 2005, striking one year before Twitter was invented (2006) and two years before the first iPhone was sold (2007).

SINCE 2005, the U.S experienced a record 12 year drought of major landfall U.S hurricanes. The 4,324 day record was finally broken by Harvey which made landfall in Texas as a CAT 4 hurricane on August 25.

AS a guide, the average peak season for the Atlantic hurricane season as stipulated by NOAA (2001) :

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South Florida Sun Sentinel at Newspapers.com (Via @SteveSGoddard)

AS happens every time a large natural weather catastrophe strikes, the media is filled with assertions that the calamity’s magnitude is attributable to global warming climate change :

THE best available, peer-reviewed Hurricane and Cyclone data refutes any correlation between increased CO2/temperature and an increase in extreme weather events. However, the climate crisis industry never lets a good storm go to waste. After all, far too many reputations, jobs, money and superstitions are now at stake.

TWITTER provides a wealth of life-saving information and real-time updates for those directly affected by extreme weather events. It also acts as a platform for interesting and often humorous, data-based retorts to combat the litany of alarmist rhetoric spewed by climate ambulance chasers and global warming alarmist trolls…

HERE’S a sample taken from the lives of Irma and Harvey :

In reply to Newsweeks howler!

No trend in Global TC Landfalls. U.S Hurricanes “bottoming out” :

Ooops! Scientist Eric Blake @NHC_Atlantic accidentally spawns “fake news” at MSN | Watts Up With That? :

Historic :

Irma in context :

Harvey :

 

Australian Tropical Cyclones :

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