THE Inconvenient Truth Is That Catastrophists Are Wrong

Eco-catastrophists - THE AUSTRALIAN

Institutionalised data bias is a handy default for radical-left eco-catastrophists who have a tendency to extract worst-case scenarios from every weather event. | THE AUSTRALIAN

GLOBAL warming alarmists want to change us, they want to change our behaviour, our way of life, our values and preferences. They want to restrict our freedom because they themselves believe they know what is good for us. They are not interested in climate or the environment. They misuse the climate in their goal to restrict our freedom. Therefore, what is in danger is freedom, not the climate.

FORMER head of Deutsche Bank, the ABC and ASX, Maurice Newman, writes another insightful piece in todays Australian maintaining that “it’s not carbon dioxide that threatens us with extinction but blind ideology dressed up as science.”

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The inconvenient truth is that catastrophists are wrong

Maurice Newman | The Australian :

It should come as a great relief to know the freezing temperatures recently experienced in the northern hemisphere do not signal an end to global warming.

Imagine if mankind’s increasingly costly attempts to arrest CO2 emissions were unnecessary. That the misallocation of productive resources, prolonging the misery of the world’s most vulnerable people, was nothing more than a cynical ideological exercise?

Hopefully, those global warming doubters in Florida watching frozen iguanas falling stiff from the trees now know that while they were freezing, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, little old Penrith in Sydney, Australia, was the warmest spot on the planet, recording its highest temperature ever, having “broken the all-time maximum temperature record for … the Sydney metropolitan area”.

Well, perhaps in all that excitement the bureau can be forgiven for overlooking the fact Penrith Lakes started recording temperatures only in 1995 and for missing a much higher temperature recorded in nearby Richmond in 1939. But they were right. It was hot.

In a hurried piece in Fairfax publications, the Climate Council of Australia’s Will Steffen throws hot water on any misconceptions that may have been drawn from abnormal snowfalls in Britain, Switzerland and Japan, the record-breaking cold snap in Canada and the US, and the expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

He says: “Terms like ‘global warming’ and the mental images they trigger can be misleading when people attempt to understand what is happening to the climate. A far better term is ‘climate disruption’, which captures the real nature of the vast array of changes, many of them abrupt and unexpected, that are occurring.” So fire and ice, it’s to be expected.

Of course you won’t be surprised to learn Steffen claims “the climate disruption we are increasingly experiencing is not natural. It is caused by the heat-trapping gases we humans are pouring into the atmosphere primarily by the burning of coal, oil and gas.”

On the day Steffen’s opinion piece appeared, this newspaper republished Matt Ridley’s article in The Times claiming “the Earth is very slowly slipping back into a proper ice age”. This confirms research by Henrik Svensmark, Australia’s David Evans and others, who correlated low solar activity (fewer sunspots) and increased cloud cover (as modulated by cosmic rays), with a cooling climate.

Indeed, last year scientists submitted 120 papers linking historical and modern climate change to variations in solar activity.

Steffen wasn’t among them. He says: “Whole ecosystems are succumbing to (human-induced) climate disruption. In 2016 unusually dry and hot conditions triggered massive fires in Tasmania’s World Heritage forests, while ocean circulation patterns have moved ­unprecedented underwater heatwaves around the world, driving the tragic coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.’’

Yet the chairman of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Russell Reichelt, dismisses many of the claims that he says “misrepresent the extent and impact of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.”

Peter Ridd from James Cook University goes further, saying: “We can no longer trust the scientific organisations like the ARC (Australian Research Council) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies. The science is coming out not properly checked, tested or replicated, and this is a great shame.”

Steffen’s work could fit this description. He spends much time pushing eco-catastrophism. “Climate disruption” he says “brings growing risks of large-scale migration and conflict as people, particularly the most vulnerable, are forced to deal with increasingly difficult conditions where they live. Some security analysts warn that climate disruption will dwarf terrorism and other conventional threats if present trends continue or worsen.

“Had enough of climate disruption? Then let’s leave our 20th-century thinking behind and get on with the job of rapidly building innovative, clever, carbon-neutral 21st-century societies.”

But Ridley questions the influence of carbon dioxide. He reminds us that: “In 1895 the Swede, Svante Arrhenius, one of the scientists who first championed the greenhouse theory, suggested that the ice retreated because carbon dioxide levels rose, and advanced because they fell. If this was true, then industrial emissions could head off the next ice age. There is indeed a correlation in the ice cores between temperature and carbon dioxide, but inconveniently it is the wrong way round: carbon dioxide follows rather than leads temperature downward when the ice returns.”

But where would manmade global warming “science” be if it relied on just facts? For decades, climate science has been plagued by scandals, deceit and the confessions of whistleblowers.

Penrith’s hyped recording is not new. Scientist and long-time BOM critic Jennifer Marohasy has been calling for an audit and urging Energy and Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg “to inform the World Meteorological Organisation that the temperatures recorded by our bureau are not consistent with calibration, nor any international standard”, and, to “direct the bureau to desist from announcing new record hot days”.

Still, institutionalised data bias is a handy default for radical-left eco-catastrophists who have a tendency to extract worst-case scenarios from every weather event.

But despite their best efforts, in the public’s eyes their story is wearing thin. There have been too many false predictions and unwarranted alarmism. People are wising up to the reality that climate science has become an unfalsifiable ideology and resent having their moral conscience questioned should they disagree.

If Ridley is right and the earth is slowly slipping back into a proper ice age, it will be literally cold comfort, not to mention lethal, to keep passing it off as climate disruption.

To survive such an event, our successors will need a plentiful supply of cheap, reliable energy, impossible given today’s intelligentsia’s religious objection to low-cost fossil and nuclear fuels.

It’s not carbon dioxide that threatens us with extinction but blind ideology dressed up as science.

(Climatism bolds and pic link added)

The inconvenient truth is that catastrophists are wrong | The Australian

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Despite ‘green dreams’, EIA report projects fossil and nuclear fuels provide 83% of total world energy in 2040

FROM the department of reason trumps symbolic gestures to the climate gods …

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

The latest EIA 2017 IEO report projects world energy consumption to increase by 28% from 2015 through 2040.

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Non OECD countries (the developing nations-China, India, etc.) account for about 84% of this increased energy use with non OECD Asia making up the majority of this energy use growth.

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Significant growth (43%) in natural gas use is projected in meeting the worlds total energy increase through 2040.

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Petroleum and other liquid fuels use growth (18%) continues but at a slower pace than natural gas.

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Coal energy use is projected to be stable during this period with declines in China offset by increased use in India.

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Renewables (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, other) is the fastest growing energy source with wind, solar and natural gas supplying most of the electricity sector growth.

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Renewables are projected to supply 31% of world electricity generation in 2040 the same as coal…

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Record Breaking Winter Cold? Don’t Worry, the Climate Explainers Have it Covered

“Even this week’s cold weather is probably being caused at least in part by global warming, said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.”

BUT wait, there’s more! …

“So what happens if global temperatures take a real plunge for a sustained period? Don’t worry, the explainers have that one covered as well – James Hansen, former NASA GISS Director, published a paper which suggests global warming will trigger a short ice age in the near future…”

ERGO, no! There is no “weather or climate shift [that could] cast doubt on the dominance of that wicked little trace molecule.”

HOT, cold, wet, dry, snow, drought, flood, heatwave, blizzard – it’s ALL “global warming” aka “climate change” aka “climate disruption” and it’s ALL your fault!

🤦‍♂️

Watts Up With That?

Graph from p3768 of J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms. Graph from p3768 of J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms.

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Does record breaking winter cold cast doubt on climate predictions of milder winters? Could ANY weather or climate shift cast doubt on the dominance of that wicked little trace molecule? Apparently not, according to leading climate explainers.

It’s cold outside, but that doesn’t mean climate change isn’t real

Sammy Roth, USA TODAY Published 5:13 p.m. ET Dec. 28, 2017

This week’s cold snap has brought record-low temperatures, freezing rain and heavy snow to much of the United States. But 2017 is still on track to be the second- or third-hottest year ever recorded globally — and scientists say climate change is to blame.

Even this week’s cold weather is probably being caused at least in part by global warming, said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.

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Snowfall on Alaska mountains has doubled – climate change blamed

SNOW will become “a very rare and exciting event.” “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” – Dr David Viner (CRU, 2000)

“The End of Snow?” NY Times (2014)

‘Settled science’…

Watts Up With That?

From DARTMOUTH COLLEGE and the “snowfalls are a thing of the past” department.

Unprecedented findings strengthen connections between winter storms and tropical waters

HANOVER, N.H. – December 19, 2017 – Snowfall on a major summit in North America’s highest mountain range has more than doubled since the beginning of the Industrial Age, according to a study from Dartmouth College, the University of Maine, and the University of New Hampshire.

The research not only finds a dramatic increase in snowfall, it further explains connections in the global climate system by attributing the record accumulation to warmer waters thousands of miles away in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The research demonstrates that modern snowfall in the iconic Alaska Range is unprecedented for at least the past 1200 years and far exceeds normal variability.

“We were shocked when we first saw how much snowfall has increased,” said Erich Osterberg, an assistant…

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GLOBAL WARMING Alarmists – The Real “Science” Deniers

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Image: Paul Bongiorno, RN ABC Breakfast Political Commentator (ABC RN/Elliot Dunn)

“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.” – Bertrand Russell

A STARK lesson in climate facts and data Vs ABC groupthink eco-ideology via “denier” numero uno – Andrew Bolt of The Herald Sun.

MAKE your own mind up. Who really are the real “science deniers”, the sceptics or the “save the planet” virtue-signalling, eco-zealots? …

PAUL BONGIORNO, THE REAL DENIER

The real “deniers” are generally not the global warming sceptics but the extremists who denounce them. Take ABC commentator Paul Bongiorno, who today denied the science in attacking Tony Abbott’s speech in London overnight.

Tony Abbott:

In most countries, far more people die in cold snaps than in heat waves, so a gradual lift in global temperatures, especially if it’s accompanied by more prosperity and more capacity to adapt to change, might even be beneficial.

ABC presenter Fran Kelly on ABC Radio Breakfast quoted this at Paul Bongiorno this morning. His response:

This just flies in the face of contemporary science.

Actually, it’s warmist Paul himself who flies in the face of science.

Cold weather is 20 times as deadly as hot weather... The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.

Same story in Australia:

A new study published in The Lancet shows 6.5% of deaths in this country are attributed to cold weather, compared with 0.5% from hot weather. Most deaths will be from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, as it’s the heart and lungs that struggle when we are outside our comfort zone.

And global warming policies of the kind Bongiorno supports will make the dying worse by making electricity too expensive for the poor:

The situation has become so dire that 77 per cent of low-income NSW households are going without heating in a bid to reduce their onerous power bills, new research from the NSW Council of Social Service (NCOSS) shows. And one in three low-income earners have been forced to stop using hot water for bathing to pay for energy bills.

Then there’s the increased crops we’re getting as the world (mildly) warms.

February:

Australia’s winter grain harvest is now officially the largest for every single mainland state.

Last week:

The latest indications for the current season point to record cereal production in 2017 at the world level with total inventories hitting a new peak.

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World cereal crops

It’s the invincible ignorance of Bongiorno that staggers me. Confronted with facts that challenge his ideology he instinctively denies them, and, indeed, went on to insult Abbott as someone he falsely claimed had said he couldn’t be believed unless he’d written it down (which, incidentally, Abbott had actually done in this case).

And what of Fran Kelly? She fancies herself as someone who is pretty well informed on global warming, which she, too, spruiks.

But to Bongiorno’s false claims she offered not a word of demurral.

UPDATE

Astonishingly, the Fairfax reporter is also astonished by Abbott’s claim, finding it so remarkable that she leads her report with it:

Tony Abbott says voters should beware the science of climate change but argues that higher temperatures “might even be beneficial” because “far more people die in cold snaps”.

Lancet reports that more people die in the cold than the heat and Fairfax doesn’t blink. But when Abbott says it Fairfax faints.

PAUL BONGIORNO, THE REAL DENIER | Herald Sun

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Climatism Related Hot Links :


Is Irma The Most Powerful Atlantic Storm?

“And we can see that Irma is not in the same league as the others.”

MORE sane and measured ‘scientific’ analysis from Paul Homewood. Refreshing, amongst the diatribe of alarmist speculation and theorising from the usual climate ambulance chasing suspects.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-latest-live-news-strongest-ever-atlantic-storm/

There seems to be a lot of disinformation around about Irma being the “most powerful Atlantic Ocean storm in recorded history” with sustained winds of 185 mph, such as the Telegraph above. I also heard the same comment on ITV News yesterday.

As I pointed out yesterday:

Four other storms have had winds as strong in the overall Atlantic region but they were in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, which are usually home to warmer waters that fuel cyclones.

Hurricane Allen hit 190 mph in 1980, while 2005’s Wilma, 1988’s Gilbert and a 1935 great Florida Key storm all had 185 mph winds.

In other words, there have now been four hurricanes as strong or stronger since 1980, about one every decade, and certainly nothing like the “unprecedented” impression left by the headlines.

And as we know, prior to Allen in 1980, we…

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LIVE FOOTAGE As Hurricane Irma Destroys St Maarten Beach Cam

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KLM 747 on final approach at St Maarten Airport

Maho Beach is a beach on the Dutch side of the Caribbean island of Saint Martin, in the territory of Sint Maarten. It is famous for the Princess Juliana International Airport adjacent to the beach.

The Maho Beach Cam recorded these two horrendous clips before it was destroyed by “The BeastIrma, packing wind speeds of 185 MPH (297 KMH)…

Maho Beach Cam – SXM Airport Cam on St Maarten – Huracan Irma pasando por San Martin, impresionantes imágenes – YouTube

CAT 5 Hurricane Irma Latest News – Wed September 6, 22:36 (Singapore Time)

Models have revealed Hurricane Irma is the “” as it has already hit much of the Caribbean, with St Kitts and Antigua next.

The National Hurricane Center said Irma was maintaining its Category 5 strength with sustained winds near 185 MPH.

Hurricane warnings remain in place across the Caribbean and many people in the immediate path of Irma have been left without power.

Hurricane Irma’s strength has triggered seismometers, which are designed to measure earthquakes as the Category 5 storm creates life-threatening storm surges along its path.

Officials in Florida have begun ordering evacuations after US forecast models predicted southern tip of Florida being caught up in Irma’s path.

The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, has told Americans in hurricane-prone areas to brace themselves for Hurricane Irma to reach land.

The latest update from the NHC said: “The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.

“However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States.”

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The Weather Channel HD Live Stream – Tracking Hurricane Irma

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Live: HURRICANE IRMA Tracking, CAT 5 185 MPH to SLAM FLORIDA – Orlando Hurricane

Live: HURRICANE IRMA Tracking, CAT 5 185 MPH to SLAM FLORIDA – Orlando Hurricane – YouTube

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EPIC videos of Irma eyewall via WUWT

This was taken earlier today by the new GOES-16 weather satellite, which has been producing some fantastic hi-res imagery of Hurricane Irma, This video, from NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) in Huntsville, AL, tops anything I’ve ever seen.

Here is the same sequence, zoomed out a bit further:

 

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UPDATE 7 September :

Hurricane Irma Aftermath (Anguilla/St.Maarten/St.Martin)…

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UDATE 7 September 20:50 (Singapore Time) :

“And we can see that Irma is not in the same league as the others.”

MORE sane and measured ‘scientific’ analysis from Paul Homewood. Refreshing, amongst the diatribe of alarmist speculation and theorising from the usual climate ambulance chasing suspects…

Is Irma The Most Powerful Atlantic Storm?

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Is Irma The Most Powerful Atlantic Storm? | Climatism

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UPDATE 7 September 23:00

Barbuda

From reliable news sources, up to 95% of Barbuda was flattened by Irma…

Via The Telegraph:

‘Literally rubble’: Barbuda, the unknown Caribbean island that Diana loved, devastated by Irma

Bermuda and Barbados, sure. But Barbuda? You may never have heard of it.

We’d forgive you for having little knowledge of this Caribbean island, which, sadly, seems to have made its first appearance in global consciousness as the victim of Hurricane Irma.

“Barbuda now is literally rubble,” said prime minister Gaston Browne. “It is heart-wrenching, absolutely devastating.” He said some 95 per cent of the island’s buildings had been damaged.

‘Literally rubble’: Barmuda, the unknown Caribbean island that Diana loved, devastated by Irma |The Telegraph

 

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UPDATE 8 September 00:40 (Singapore Time) :

Necker Island, Sir Richard Branson’s private island

“Richard Branson’s luxury Necker Island home completely destroyed by Hurricane Irma” | METRO UK

Richard Branson’s son has posted to say that people staying on Necker Island are safe, but the buildings on the island have been destroyed.

Sam Branson posted on instagram from the luxury retreat in the British Virgin Islands as he warned others in the path of the storm to find safe shelter

Read more: Richard Branson’s luxury Necker Island home completely destroyed by Hurricane Irma | Metro News

Meanwhile…

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UPDATE 8 September 02:25 (Singapore Time) (7/9 14:25 ET USA) :

Damage hurricane Irma St Maarten seen from naval helicopter

H/t @aseemcam

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UPDATE 8 September 08:50 (Singapore Time) :

TWO’S A PARTY, THREE’S A CROWD!

Incredible sat pic of the three hurricanes spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin…

via WUWT :

It is not often that you get to see two Atlantic and one Gulf of Mexico hurricanes all at once on a single satellite image, but we live in “interesting times” and the remarkable imagery from the new GOES-16 spacecraft continues to impress the world.

Hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach says:

Currently have 3 hurricanes w/ 2 major hurricanes in Atlantic – 4th time on record we’ve had 3 hurricanes w/ 2 majors at same time. Other three years w/ 3 hurricanes & 2 major hurricanes in Atlantic were 1893, 1961 and 2010.

Here, I’ve taken several snips and made a hi-res composite image to show a half-disk view of the Western Hemisphere as seen by visible light by GOES-16. Dr. Roy Spencer commented on Facebook today that

“[the] current view from space is beautiful….”.

On that I agree, it’s also Nature’s deadliness on display. Like the famous “blue marble” image from 1968, this image too is a bit humbling, and a reminder that no matter how much we want to believe we can control weather/climate through our actions and lifestyle, Nature, when it so chooses, can squish us like a bug.

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AFTERMATH Footage (Lesser Antilles) :

Anguilla copping a pounding from Irma. This is what a CAT 5 eyewall looks and feels like…

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UPDATE 8 September 13:25 (Singapore Time) (8/9 00:25 ET USA) :

Via WUWT :

Monster Hurricane #Irma – sat measurements show it larger than the state of Florida is long

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From the National Hurricane Center at 11PM EDT tonight:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

From: http://www.netstate.com/states/geography/fl_geography.htm

Florida is 500 miles long and 160 miles wide at its most distant points.

That includes the Keys and the panhandle. Using Google Earth, I measured the length of the Florida peninsula (minus the Keys) and came up with ~391 miles.

Measuring the size of Irma, based on the densest cloud bands, it shows ~528 miles in diameter from outer dense cloud bands through the eye. I also did a measurement across the panhandle from Tampa to Cape Canaveral and came up with ~139 miles.

With hurricane tropical storm force winds extending “outward up to 185 miles” according to NHC, that means that if the storms holds in strength, the entire width of the Florida panhandle may get tropical storm force winds (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h). That’s sobering, especially in light of this track projection:

Irma is certainly bigger than hurricane Andrew, seen here in 1992:

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More updates soon…