Despite ‘green dreams’, EIA report projects fossil and nuclear fuels provide 83% of total world energy in 2040Posted: December 31, 2017
FROM the department of reason trumps symbolic gestures to the climate gods …
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
The latest EIA 2017 IEO report projects world energy consumption to increase by 28% from 2015 through 2040.
Non OECD countries (the developing nations-China, India, etc.) account for about 84% of this increased energy use with non OECD Asia making up the majority of this energy use growth.
Significant growth (43%) in natural gas use is projected in meeting the worlds total energy increase through 2040.
Petroleum and other liquid fuels use growth (18%) continues but at a slower pace than natural gas.
Coal energy use is projected to be stable during this period with declines in China offset by increased use in India.
Renewables (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, other) is the fastest growing energy source with wind, solar and natural gas supplying most of the electricity sector growth.
Renewables are projected to supply 31% of world electricity generation in 2040 the same as coal…
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“Even this week’s cold weather is probably being caused at least in part by global warming, said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.”
BUT wait, there’s more! …
“So what happens if global temperatures take a real plunge for a sustained period? Don’t worry, the explainers have that one covered as well – James Hansen, former NASA GISS Director, published a paper which suggests global warming will trigger a short ice age in the near future…”
ERGO, no! There is no “weather or climate shift [that could] cast doubt on the dominance of that wicked little trace molecule.”
HOT, cold, wet, dry, snow, drought, flood, heatwave, blizzard – it’s ALL “global warming” aka “climate change” aka “climate disruption” and it’s ALL your fault!
Graph from p3768 of J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms.
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Does record breaking winter cold cast doubt on climate predictions of milder winters? Could ANY weather or climate shift cast doubt on the dominance of that wicked little trace molecule? Apparently not, according to leading climate explainers.
It’s cold outside, but that doesn’t mean climate change isn’t real
Sammy Roth, USA TODAY Published 5:13 p.m. ET Dec. 28, 2017
This week’s cold snap has brought record-low temperatures, freezing rain and heavy snow to much of the United States. But 2017 is still on track to be the second- or third-hottest year ever recorded globally — and scientists say climate change is to blame.
Even this week’s cold weather is probably being caused at least in part by global warming, said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.
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SNOW will become “a very rare and exciting event.” “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” – Dr David Viner (CRU, 2000)
“The End of Snow?” NY Times (2014)
From DARTMOUTH COLLEGE and the “snowfalls are a thing of the past” department.
Unprecedented findings strengthen connections between winter storms and tropical waters
HANOVER, N.H. – December 19, 2017 – Snowfall on a major summit in North America’s highest mountain range has more than doubled since the beginning of the Industrial Age, according to a study from Dartmouth College, the University of Maine, and the University of New Hampshire.
The research not only finds a dramatic increase in snowfall, it further explains connections in the global climate system by attributing the record accumulation to warmer waters thousands of miles away in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans.
The research demonstrates that modern snowfall in the iconic Alaska Range is unprecedented for at least the past 1200 years and far exceeds normal variability.
“We were shocked when we first saw how much snowfall has increased,” said Erich Osterberg, an assistant…
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“The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.” – Bertrand Russell
A STARK lesson in climate facts and data Vs ABC groupthink eco-ideology via “denier” numero uno – Andrew Bolt of The Herald Sun.
MAKE your own mind up. Who really are the real “science deniers”, the sceptics or the “save the planet” virtue-signalling, eco-zealots? …
PAUL BONGIORNO, THE REAL DENIER
The real “deniers” are generally not the global warming sceptics but the extremists who denounce them. Take ABC commentator Paul Bongiorno, who today denied the science in attacking Tony Abbott’s speech in London overnight.
In most countries, far more people die in cold snaps than in heat waves, so a gradual lift in global temperatures, especially if it’s accompanied by more prosperity and more capacity to adapt to change, might even be beneficial.
ABC presenter Fran Kelly on ABC Radio Breakfast quoted this at Paul Bongiorno this morning. His response:
This just flies in the face of contemporary science.
Actually, it’s warmist Paul himself who flies in the face of science.
Cold weather is 20 times as deadly as hot weather... The study — published in the British journal The Lancet — analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those, 5.4 million deaths were related to cold, while 311,000 were related to heat.
A new study published in The Lancet shows 6.5% of deaths in this country are attributed to cold weather, compared with 0.5% from hot weather. Most deaths will be from cardiovascular and respiratory disease, as it’s the heart and lungs that struggle when we are outside our comfort zone.
And global warming policies of the kind Bongiorno supports will make the dying worse by making electricity too expensive for the poor:
The situation has become so dire that 77 per cent of low-income NSW households are going without heating in a bid to reduce their onerous power bills, new research from the NSW Council of Social Service (NCOSS) shows. And one in three low-income earners have been forced to stop using hot water for bathing to pay for energy bills.
Then there’s the increased crops we’re getting as the world (mildly) warms.
Australia’s winter grain harvest is now officially the largest for every single mainland state.
The latest indications for the current season point to record cereal production in 2017 at the world level with total inventories hitting a new peak.
It’s the invincible ignorance of Bongiorno that staggers me. Confronted with facts that challenge his ideology he instinctively denies them, and, indeed, went on to insult Abbott as someone he falsely claimed had said he couldn’t be believed unless he’d written it down (which, incidentally, Abbott had actually done in this case).
And what of Fran Kelly? She fancies herself as someone who is pretty well informed on global warming, which she, too, spruiks.
But to Bongiorno’s false claims she offered not a word of demurral.
Astonishingly, the Fairfax reporter is also astonished by Abbott’s claim, finding it so remarkable that she leads her report with it:
Tony Abbott says voters should beware the science of climate change but argues that higher temperatures “might even be beneficial” because “far more people die in cold snaps”.
Lancet reports that more people die in the cold than the heat and Fairfax doesn’t blink. But when Abbott says it Fairfax faints.
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“And we can see that Irma is not in the same league as the others.”
MORE sane and measured ‘scientific’ analysis from Paul Homewood. Refreshing, amongst the diatribe of alarmist speculation and theorising from the usual climate ambulance chasing suspects.
By Paul Homewood
There seems to be a lot of disinformation around about Irma being the “most powerful Atlantic Ocean storm in recorded history” with sustained winds of 185 mph, such as the Telegraph above. I also heard the same comment on ITV News yesterday.
As I pointed out yesterday:
Four other storms have had winds as strong in the overall Atlantic region but they were in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, which are usually home to warmer waters that fuel cyclones.
Hurricane Allen hit 190 mph in 1980, while 2005’s Wilma, 1988’s Gilbert and a 1935 great Florida Key storm all had 185 mph winds.
In other words, there have now been four hurricanes as strong or stronger since 1980, about one every decade, and certainly nothing like the “unprecedented” impression left by the headlines.
And as we know, prior to Allen in 1980, we…
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The Maho Beach Cam recorded these two horrendous clips before it was destroyed by “The Beast” Irma, packing wind speeds of 185 MPH (297 KMH)…
CAT 5 Hurricane Irma Latest News – Wed September 6, 22:36 (Singapore Time)
Models have revealed Hurricane Irma is the “strongest Atlantic hurricane ever” as it has already hit much of the Caribbean, with St Kitts and Antigua next.
The National Hurricane Center said Irma was maintaining its Category 5 strength with sustained winds near 185 MPH.
Hurricane warnings remain in place across the Caribbean and many people in the immediate path of Irma have been left without power.
Hurricane Irma’s strength has triggered seismometers, which are designed to measure earthquakes as the Category 5 storm creates life-threatening storm surges along its path.
Officials in Florida have begun ordering evacuations after US forecast models predicted southern tip of Florida being caught up in Irma’s path.
The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, has told Americans in hurricane-prone areas to brace themselves for Hurricane Irma to reach land.
The latest update from the NHC said: “The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.
“However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States.”
The Weather Channel HD Live Stream – Tracking Hurricane Irma
Live: HURRICANE IRMA Tracking, CAT 5 185 MPH to SLAM FLORIDA – Orlando Hurricane
EPIC videos of Irma eyewall via WUWT…
This was taken earlier today by the new GOES-16 weather satellite, which has been producing some fantastic hi-res imagery of Hurricane Irma, This video, from NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) in Huntsville, AL, tops anything I’ve ever seen.
Here is the same sequence, zoomed out a bit further:
UPDATE 7 September :
Hurricane Irma Aftermath (Anguilla/St.Maarten/St.Martin)…
UDATE 7 September 20:50 (Singapore Time) :
“And we can see that Irma is not in the same league as the others.”
MORE sane and measured ‘scientific’ analysis from Paul Homewood. Refreshing, amongst the diatribe of alarmist speculation and theorising from the usual climate ambulance chasing suspects…
UPDATE 7 September 23:00
From reliable news sources, up to 95% of Barbuda was flattened by Irma…
Via The Telegraph:
‘Literally rubble’: Barbuda, the unknown Caribbean island that Diana loved, devastated by Irma
Bermuda and Barbados, sure. But Barbuda? You may never have heard of it.
We’d forgive you for having little knowledge of this Caribbean island, which, sadly, seems to have made its first appearance in global consciousness as the victim of Hurricane Irma.
“Barbuda now is literally rubble,” said prime minister Gaston Browne. “It is heart-wrenching, absolutely devastating.” He said some 95 per cent of the island’s buildings had been damaged.
UPDATE 8 September 00:40 (Singapore Time) :
Richard Branson’s son has posted to say that people staying on Necker Island are safe, but the buildings on the island have been destroyed.
Sam Branson posted on instagram from the luxury retreat in the British Virgin Islands as he warned others in the path of the storm to find safe shelter
UPDATE 8 September 02:25 (Singapore Time) (7/9 14:25 ET USA) :
UPDATE 8 September 08:50 (Singapore Time) :
TWO’S A PARTY, THREE’S A CROWD!
Incredible sat pic of the three hurricanes spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin…
via WUWT :
It is not often that you get to see two Atlantic and one Gulf of Mexico hurricanes all at once on a single satellite image, but we live in “interesting times” and the remarkable imagery from the new GOES-16 spacecraft continues to impress the world.
Hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach says:
Currently have 3 hurricanes w/ 2 major hurricanes in Atlantic – 4th time on record we’ve had 3 hurricanes w/ 2 majors at same time. Other three years w/ 3 hurricanes & 2 major hurricanes in Atlantic were 1893, 1961 and 2010.
Here, I’ve taken several snips and made a hi-res composite image to show a half-disk view of the Western Hemisphere as seen by visible light by GOES-16. Dr. Roy Spencer commented on Facebook today that
On that I agree, it’s also Nature’s deadliness on display. Like the famous “blue marble” image from 1968, this image too is a bit humbling, and a reminder that no matter how much we want to believe we can control weather/climate through our actions and lifestyle, Nature, when it so chooses, can squish us like a bug.
AFTERMATH Footage (Lesser Antilles) :
Anguilla copping a pounding from Irma. This is what a CAT 5 eyewall looks and feels like…
UPDATE 8 September 13:25 (Singapore Time) (8/9 00:25 ET USA) :
Via WUWT :
From the National Hurricane Center at 11PM EDT tonight:
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
Florida is 500 miles long and 160 miles wide at its most distant points.
That includes the Keys and the panhandle. Using Google Earth, I measured the length of the Florida peninsula (minus the Keys) and came up with ~391 miles.
Measuring the size of Irma, based on the densest cloud bands, it shows ~528 miles in diameter from outer dense cloud bands through the eye. I also did a measurement across the panhandle from Tampa to Cape Canaveral and came up with ~139 miles.
hurricanetropical storm force winds extending “outward up to 185 miles” according to NHC, that means that if the storms holds in strength, the entire width of the Florida panhandle may get tropical storm force winds (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h). That’s sobering, especially in light of this track projection:
Irma is certainly bigger than hurricane Andrew, seen here in 1992:
More updates soon…