Hey @Algore ! Explain this! Bottom drops out of US hurricanes in past decade

WAITING for Australian press gallery to cross-examine Al “Hurricane” Gore on this very ‘Inconvenient’ climate data…

(crickets)

Watts Up With That?

Inconvenient data for those who still insist climate change is making hurricanes more frequent is displayed in these two slides from Dr. Philip Klotzbach. As noted by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. The bottom dropped out of US hurricanes over the last 10 years.

CommonDreams.org quoted Al Gore back in 2005:

… the science is extremely clear now, that warmer oceans make the average hurricane stronger, not only makes the winds stronger, but dramatically increases the moisture from the oceans evaporating into the storm – thus magnifying its destructive power – makes the duration, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, stronger.

Last year we had a lot of hurricanes. Last year, Japan set an all-time record for typhoons: ten, the previous record was seven. Last year the science textbooks had to be re-written. They said, “It’s impossible to have a hurricane in the south Atlantic.” We had the first…

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Former Obama Official: Bureaucrats Manipulate Climate Stats To Influence Policy

Surprise, surprise again…

“Press officers work with scientists within agencies like the National Oceanic Administration (NOAA) and NASA and are responsible for crafting misleading press releases on climate, he added.”

Watts Up With That?

by Chris White

A former member of the Obama administration claims Washington D.C. often uses “misleading” news releases about climate data to influence public opinion.

Former Energy Department Undersecretary Steven Koonin told The Wall Street Journal Monday that bureaucrats within former President Barack Obama’s administration spun scientific data to manipulate public opinion.

“What you saw coming out of the press releases about climate data, climate analysis, was, I’d say, misleading, sometimes just wrong,” Koonin said, referring to elements within the Obama administration he said were responsible for manipulating climate data.

He pointed to a National Climate Assessment in 2014 showing hurricane activity has increased from 1980 as an illustration of how federal agencies fudged climate data. Koonin said the NCA’s assessment was technically incorrect.

“What they forgot to tell you, and you don’t know until you read all the way into the fine print is that it actually decreased in…

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The Great “Extreme Weather” Climate Change Propaganda Con

extreme-weather-news1st

The “Extreme Weather” meme has earned its place in climate change history as the fundamental driver of climate scaremongering, used deceptively and effectively to promote the catastrophic man-made climate change theory by instilling fear, doom and gloom directly into the human psyche through simple imagery and repetitive correlation rhetoric.

Even though “weather” is not climate, the daily bombardment via news and multi-media of climatic disaster clips provide more than enough evidence for the casual observer to convince them that the climate is in fact changing as a direct result of human CO2 emissions.

Much of the mainstream media gleefully encourages and promotes the catastrophic man-made warming narrative. Hence, sensationalising a typhoon in the Phillipines or a forest fire in California has become fair-game in the virtuous and IMHO nefarious push to enhance the supposed human CO2-induced climate catastrophe.

However, when you look at hard data and scientific evidence pertaining to extreme weather through the lens of “Government data” and “Peer-Reviewed Science”, as opposed to scary pictures and videos, absorbed via billions of iPhones and hysterical climate-obsessed mainstream media, things are not quite as bad as they seem. In fact, by most metrics, extreme weather events are becoming ‘less’ extreme as CO2 increases. This should come as relieving news to all, though sadly, yet predictably, such data will come as extremely inconvenient news to the virtuous “Save The Planet” lobby and especially those invested in the trillion dollar global warming climate change industry that feeds and thrives off doomsday scenarios.

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Below are listed the more common metrics associated with the much maligned and deceptively ascribed “extreme weather” meme. A term which I would label as a very clever weapon of mass climate propaganda to elevate hysteria, emotions and fear with the ultimate end to mould groupthink belief in human CO2-induced climate change…

HURRICANES

The US is currently experiencing a record 12 year (4,380 days) drought of major landfall hurricanes (Cat3+). The last major hurricane to hit was “Wilma” in 2005:

2016-hurricane-drought.jpg

The major hurricane drought for Category 3 or greater storms continues. Updated December 2016 by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. (via WUWT)

Interesting historical reference point:

NOAA keeps hurricane records back to 1850. The average number of US hurricane strikes per presidency is about eleven. Obama’s presidency had five hurricane strikes, the last being “Matthew” (Cat 1 at landfall, October 8,2016).

Grover Cleveland (1885 – 1889 & 1893 – 1897) and Franklin D Roosevelt (1933 – 1945) both presided over 26 hurricanes, almost six times as many as Obama:

Hurricane count by President.jpg

The presidency of Barack Obama had the lowest frequency of US hurricane strikes of any president:

Hurricane count by President2.gif

Charts via Steve S Goddard – Only updated to 2014

NOAA – Chronological List of All Hurricanes

During Obama’s presidency, atmospheric CO2 levels were between 384-400 ppm. At the time of Grover Cleveland, atmospheric CO2 levels were at 294 ppm. (NASA CO2 Data)

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TORNADOES

Last years tornado season marked the fifth consecutive year of below normal tornado activity in the US:

US Tornadoes.png

NOAA | Storm Prediction Center WCM Page

NOAA

Over the past 55 years there has been a large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes:

ef3-ef5-t_thumb

There has been no trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014:

EF1-EF5-t.png

Historical Records and Trends | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Paul Homewood, of the excellent climate blog NALOPKT, notes that NOAA has not bothered to update Tornado data for 2015/16. “Could it be they would rather the public did not find out the truth?”

Last year may set the record for the least number of Tornadoes on record:

torngraph-big.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

In summary, with an interesting caveat from NOAA:

  • No trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014 tornadoes.
  • Large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.
  • 2016 perhaps a record for the least number of Tornadoes on record.

ALL THIS despite rising CO2 and advanced technologies, including doppler radar and greater attention to reporting – Tornado chasers, increased population etc – which can create “a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency.” – NOAA

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TROPICAL CYCLONES

Jamal Munshi of Sonoma State University published this paper last June, A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity:

ABSTRACT

The ACE index is used to compare tropical cyclone activity worldwide among seven decades from 1945 to 2014. Some increase in tropical cyclone activity is found relative to the earliest decades. No trend is found after the decade 1965-1974. A comparison of the six cyclone basins in the study shows that the Western Pacific Basin is the most active basin and the North Indian Basin the least. The advantages of using a general linear model for trend analysis are described.

Trop Cyclone trends.png

A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity by Jamal Munshi :: SSRN

Again, despite rising CO2, there is no trend in tropical cyclone activity after the decade 1965-1974. With a sharp decline in activity over the past two decades.

AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology graph shows a significant downtrend in all tropical storms, with no discernible trend for severe tropical cyclones:

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at , February 22, 11.52.48 AM.png

Tropical Cyclone Trends | Bureau Of Meteorology

Again, it’s clear from the BoM graph that as CO2 has increased, the frequency and strength of cyclones has decreased.

NB, the (warmist) BoM is still yet to update its cyclone graph from 2011. Are they simply lazy? Have no data since 2011? Or are they trying to hide inconvenient climate data that doesn’t fit the CO2-induced extreme weather narrative? You decide.

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SNOW

Snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David VinerSenior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)

Climate change alarmists (experts) use tangible and emotional climatic horror scenarios to scare you into belief. One of the more classic instances of such fear-mongering, gone horribly wrong, was that by Dr David Viner – esteemed climatologist from the UK’s CRU, in 2000.

From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

After over 15 years, the Independent removed that article, and the URL used to come up like this:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past-404.png

It originally read like this:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past Original.png

The original link now boots back to their homepage.

Our friends at WUWT have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – The Independent (PDF)

In fairness, perhaps the good Dr Viner was colluding consulting with the virtuous partners of climate catastrophe expertise, the UN IPCC…

IPCC Less Snow.png

IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001 – Complete online versions | GRID-Arendal – Publications – Other

Warmer winters IPCC.png

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The (warmist) CSIRO jumped on the “end of snow” bandwagon in August 2003:


Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths.  At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

In 2014, the New York Times signalled “The End of Snow”:

ScreenHunter_314 Feb. 07 11.00

The End of Snow? – NYTimes.com

BACK TO THE REAL WORLD

2017 Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was amongst the highest on record last month:

NH Snow extent.png

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent is trending upwards, despite rising CO2 emissions:

Winter SNow NH.png

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

SNOW EXTENT UPDATE 2017

January snow extent update… 10th highest on record.

“Global Warming”?

Again, as CO2 has increased, NH Snow extent has increased :

Screen Shot 2017-04-02 at , April 2, 4.25.07 PM.png

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

And for Australia’s CSIRO who assured the end of snow by 2020/2030…

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at , February 22, 8.05.58 PM.png

Heavy snow forecast for the Australian Alps despite ski season ending a month ago

Australia’s snowfields have been overdosed by snow over the past 5+ years.

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FLOODS / DROUGHT 

“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007

This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake
.”
– Dr Tim Flannery,
Climate Council

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology 2008:

IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.

“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones….

“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent…”

The Bureau’s David Jones in 2007:

As Jones wrote to the University of East Anglia the year before: “Truth be know, climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone of our cities is on the verge of running out of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse…”

The CSIRO, 2009:

A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change

”It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,” said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal. 

THE REAL WORLD (as of 2016 data)

For the continent of Australia as a whole, there is more rain, not less – and certainly no permanent drought:

aus-rainfall.jpeg

2016:

Winter was Australia’s second wettest on record – just missing out on a new high by a couple of millimetres, leaving many regions already sodden.

“It’s about as wet as it has been in the past 110 years [of records] across Australia,” David Jones, head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.

Floods! Near-record rainfall! When will the head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology (David Jones) explain why his 2008 prediction of a “new climate” of drought turned out so, so wrong?

THE CONSEQUENCES OF PROFESSIONAL CLIMATE ALARMISTS’ DUD-PREDICTIONS

How warmists cost us billions

The price of global warming alarmism is enormous. Take the cost of the mothballed desalination plants, built after warmists persuaded politiciansthe rains would dry up:

Sydney’s privatised desalination plant, which is costing residents more than $500,000 a day to keep on standby, will not be needed for at least another four or five years. The sale of the plant last year to a private company for $2.3 billion means residents are locked into paying about $10 billion in fees for the next 50 years, whether the plant is operating or not. Not one drop of water has come out of the Kurnell facility since it stopped operating more than a year ago. With dam levels at 93.4 per cent, the plant has been placed into “water security” mode, a long-term shutdown which is likely to continue for some time.”My best estimate is it will still be about four to five years before we turn the desalination plant on,” Sydney Water’s managing director Kevin Young told 7.30 New South Wales

Mind you, big cities did need more water security as they grew. Dams were the cheap option, but who made those almost illegal?

How warmists cost us billions | Herald Sun

More: The legacy of Tim Flannery..White elephant desalination plants | Climatism

Australia is now awash with water. Nearly every dam is full. And we are left with x4 mothballed desal plants that cost $12Billion to build and are costing the taxpayer $1million per day (each) under contract until 2030/50.

Unfortunately, the worst Flannery and his climate change alarmist comrades can ever be accused of, for the litany of failed alarmist dud-predictions resulting in massive taxpayer-dollar waste, is an excess of “Save the planet”virtue.

CALIFORNIA

Last September, New York’s Daily News forecast centuries of global warming drought for California:

One of the myriad incorrect assertions by climate-change deniers is that scientists who have proven manmade causes for the current global warming ignore periods of warming in the Earth’s past that were not caused by industrial pollution.

Since it’s essentially, and of course ironically, entirely non-scientists who make this claim, the deniers would do well to read a recent UCLA study that indicates California’s current six-year severe drought could be exacerbated enough by global warming to extend the dry period for centuries.

Five months later the “Permanent” drought is over and the prediction drowned:
California has now seen more moisture in the last 8 weeks than it typically does in an entire year… San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and several other cities have recorded one of their wettest Januarys on record and an incredibly wet 8 weeks overall.

And for those who desire to claim the recent California floods are “unprecedented” and “extreme”, the below graph shows that inflow to Oroville so far this year is far from unprecedented, with a much greater total in 1997.

oroville_inflow_1995-2017feb_620.png

And we can see from the state rainfall totals that January 2017 was nothing special:

Orville Precip.png

HISTORICAL DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE

USA drought during the low-CO2 1930’s:

conus_palmerindex_june_1934.png

USA drought during 400ppm “unprecedented”-CO2 levels of 2017:

Drought USA 2017.png

Drought – January 2017 | State of the Climate | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

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For the next few “Extreme Weather/Climate” categories, feel free to click on the links to read government data and peer-reviewed science sourced to unfold any concern(s) you may have…

HEATWAVES

Shock news : Australia has always had heatwaves | Climatism

SEA LEVEL RISE

NASA “Sea Level Rise” Fraud | Climatism

44th Pacific “Sinking Islands” Extortion Forum (COP21 Update 2015) | Climatism

If Sea Level Rise were such a threat, ask yourself one simple Q: Why would Barack Hussein Obama (spruiker-in-chief of climate change alarmism) purchase the Hawaii seaside mansion where Magnum PI was filmed?

While warning us of ‘rising oceans’ in SOTU, did Obama just buy a beachfront mansion? | Watts Up With That?

Maybe its because, outside of his eco-pantheist ideology and Leftist, wealth redistribution agenda, Obama too, knows very well that Islands like Hawaii “Shape-shift” i.e. they grow with Sea Level Rise. In fact, 80% of Island nations around the world are growing, not “Sinking” as climate activists and alarmists will have you believe.

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RECENT “EXTREME WEATHER” RELATED SCIENTIFIC STUDIES

China’s not so extreme weather study:

China’s weather now better

The biggest study of China’s extreme weather finds the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has actually halved since 1960.

In one of the most comprehensive studies on trends in local severe weather patterns to date, an international team of researchers found that the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has decreased by nearly 50 percent on average throughout China since 1960…

“Most of the data published on trends in severe weather has been incomplete or collected for a limited short period,” said Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology and atmospheric science and director, Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, Penn State. “The record we used is, to the best of our knowledge, the largest, both in time scale and area of land covered.”

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/global-warming-helps-chinas-weather-now-better/news-story/12b5c26ab1a5f27fffc3b416f95cee7c

When will warmist scientists admit the apocalypse they predicted simply isn’t coming?

Oh and just as a side, Al Gore’s “Extreme Weather” poster child sufferers – POLAR BEARS – are doing more than fine…as CO2 rises!

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If we rely on the above scientific hard data and peer-reviewed evidence, it should hopefully become clearer that colourless, odourless, plant food and trace gas CO2 – the gas of life – does not control the climate or the weather.

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In my opinion if the temperature gradient between the polar regions and tropics were to increase because of polar cooling, expect to see more and genuine extreme weather occurrences. Ergo, has slight global warming since the 1970’s actually decreased the frequency and strength of extreme weather events? The above evidence strongly supports this case. Especially in the case of Northern Hemisphere Hurricanes, Tornadoes and drought.

Ironically and to this point, in 1974 climatologists blamed extreme weather on “Global Cooling”.

The panic was so real during the “Global Cooling” scare of the 1970’s that UN scientists wanted to melt the Arctic by spreading black soot on it!

Arctic UN Black soot.jpg

02 Feb 1972 – Scientists fear for Arctic Sea ice – Trove

And today, the UN, all those expert climatologists and their sycophant media gleefully blame any extreme weather event, not on “global cooling” but now “global warming”. Nuff said.

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TO FINISH. A message, in their own words, from the promulgators of climate change fear, doom and gloom – the UN’s very own IPCC …

Direct from their IPCC SREX report released 2012 :

We Do Not Know If The Climate Is Becoming More Extreme

•••

Recommended / Related :


Atlantic Hurricane Numbers Decreasing Despite Increases In Atmospheric CO2

Rather inconvenient news for promulgators of CO2-induced Climate Change fear, doom and gloom…

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.thegwpf.com/atlantic-hurricane-numbers-decreasing-despite-increases-in-atmospheric-co2/

From GWPF:

Study of historical hurricane occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, during the period 1749 to 2012, reveals that “the hurricane number is actually decreasing in time.”

Paper Reviewed

Rojo-Garibaldi, B., Salas-de-León, D.A., Sánchez, N.L. and Monreal-Gómez, M.A. 2016. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and their relationship with sunspots. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics148: 48-52.

Although some climate alarmists contend that CO2-induced global warming will increase the number of hurricanes in the future, the search for such effect on Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone frequency has so far remained elusive. And with the recent publication of Rojo-Garibaldi et al. (2016), it looks like climate alarmists will have to keep on looking, or accept the likelihood that something other than CO2 is at the helm in moderating Atlantic hurricane frequency.

In their…

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Dr. Neil Frank: Hillary Clinton Is No Hurricane Expert—But I Am

A two-minute MUST READ.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Dr. Neil Frank, former Director, National Hurrricane Center 

As former Director of the National Hurricane Center (1974–1987), I was appalled when, in a campaign rally at Miami-Dade College October 11, Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said, “Hurricane Matthew was likely more destructive because of climate change.”

That is false.

We were extremely fortunate that Matthew—category 5 through much of the Caribbean—weakened to category 2 before landfall in South Carolina. It could have been much worse.

In 1893 a much stronger hurricane followed nearly the same track. When its eye reached the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, a 15–20 ft. storm surge inundated the coastal islands. Though population was a small fraction of today’s, between 2,000 and 3,000 died, making that the second deadliest hurricane in U.S. history. The same year another major hurricane killed 2,000 in Louisiana.

All together five hurricanes hit the U.S. in 1893, something that’s happened…

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Continued Hype and Deceit Drive Climate, Energy Agenda – Clobbering Poor Families

“No Real-World evidence supports a “dangerous manmade climate change” thesis. In fact, a moderately warmer planet with more atmospheric carbon dioxide would hugely benefit crop, forest and other plant growth, wildlife and humans – with no or minimal climate effect. A colder planet with less CO2 would punish them. And a chillier CO2-deprived planet with less reliable, less affordable energy (from massive wind, solar and biofuel projects) would threaten habitats, species, nutrition and the poorest among us.”

Such a simple yet overwhelmingly critical paragraph that eviscerates the supposed “global warming planetary crisis”.

As is this:

“It is clearly not climate change that threatens the poor. It is policies imposed in the name of preventing climate change that imperil poor, minority, blue-collar, farm and factory families.”

Read more of Paul Driessen’s common sense and reasoned argument that is so painfully devoid in the alarmist, schizophrenic world of “Climate Crisis Inc.”

Watts Up With That?

Hurricane Matthew has given climate change alarmists yet another excuse to rail against fossil use and demand a “fundamental transformation” of the US and world energy and economic systems. Reality simply does not support their claims or demands.

Guest opinion by Paul Driessen

Despite constant claims to the contrary, the issue is not whether greenhouse gas emissions affect Earth’s climate. The questions are whether those emissions are overwhelming the powerful natural forcesthat have always driven climate fluctuations, and whether humans are causing dangerous climate change.

No Real-World evidence supports a “dangerous manmade climate change” thesis. In fact, a moderately warmer planet with more atmospheric carbon dioxide would hugely benefit crop, forest and other plant growth, wildlife and humans – with no or minimal climate effect. A colder planet with less CO2 would punish them. And a chillier CO2-deprived planet with less reliable, less affordable energy (from massive wind, solar…

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Another blow to the ‘extreme weather is climate’ alarmism meme – Australian cyclone activity down

Mann made CO2 induced Extreme Weather reminder…

Watts Up With That?

We’ve mentioned many times the lack of major landfalling hurricanes on the USA being in a record drought. When the Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1st, 13 days from now, it will have been (barring a miracle storm) 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900.

hurrdrou0613[1]

Source: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.

We’ve also routinely talked about Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) being down. You can see the downtrends on the WUWT Extreme Weather Page.

Now Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has posted an updated graph (if you can call through 2011 “updated”) that shows a significant downtrend in all tropical storms, with no discernible trend for severe tropical cyclones. They write:

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