Updated climate models clouded by scientific biases, researchers find

“In other words, if improperly simulated, the Southern Ocean clouds may cast a shadow of doubt on the projection of future climate change…”
Hmm.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Southern Ocean surrounds Antarctica [image credit: theozonehole.com]
Another hole in ‘settled’ climate science? Over-sensitivity to changing conditions may sound familiar. Researchers find “The major implication is that, even though the latest CMIP models improve the simulation of their mean states, such as radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, the detailed cloud processes are still of large uncertainty.” Southern Ocean clouds seem to have been ‘improperly simulated’ when compared to data.
– – –
Clouds can cool or warm the planet’s surface, a radiative effect that contributes significantly to the global energy budget and can be altered by human activities, claims Eurekalert.

The world’s southernmost ocean, aptly named the Southern Ocean and far from human pollution but subject to abundant marine gases and aerosols, is about 80% covered by clouds.

How does this body of water and relationship with clouds contribute to the world’s changing climate?

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THE Climate Control Knob

IMG_2618.JPG

Climate Control Panel


We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth
Fmr President of the UN Foundation

***

OVER the past month a staggering 8,742 cold temperature records were set in the United States.

Electroverse with the ‘inconvenient’ data …

the U.S. busted a staggering 8,742 low temperature records over the past 30 days, compared with just the 1,832 maximum ones — 7,361 of those were new daily record-lows — 1,378 were new monthly record-lows for October — while 3 were all-time record lows; temps never-before observed during any month of the year. And further to all that, a total of 1288 snowfall records were also toppled over the past 30 days.

Over the past 30 days, the United States set 8,742 New All-Time Low Temperature Records vs just the 1,832 Max | Electroverse

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CLIMATE CONTROL KNOB

PROTAGONISTS of the anthropogenic Global Warming Climate Change theory maintain that trace gas Carbon Dioxide is the “Climate control knob“.

THE 2013 UN IPCC report (AR5) claimed with at least 95 percent certainty that human activities – chiefly the burning of fossil fuels – are the main cause of warming since the 1950s.

NASA concurs …

“The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.”

Evidence | Facts – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

*

IDENTICAL WARMING TRENDS

THE $64,000 Question for IPCC/NASA cheerleaders :

  1. Which side is which time period?
  2. What caused the warming before CO2 became an issue to be essentially identical to the period when it is claimed to be the main driver?
  3. How are NASA and the IPCC 95% certain one side is caused by man and the other is not?

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*

*

THERE is no statistical difference between the two trends.

ERGO, what caused the exact same rate of warming in the first part of the 20th Century?

*

CONCLUSION

THE sheer abundance of cold records, including 3 all-time record lows (temps never-before observed during any month of the year) and 1288 snowfall records, set in the age of The Hottest Year Evahh” suggests the existence of a ‘control knob’ far more potent than CO2. Shock horror.

CO2-centric, climate change extremists need to explain what that rogue ‘control knob’ is before they sell us more wealth-destroying windmills and mirrors …

 

Hat Tip @SylviaD32911201

•••

CLIMATE Control Knob Related :

SEE also :

EXTREME WEATHER Related :

STATE Of The Climate Report :

TEMPERATURE Related :

•••

THE Climatism Tip Jar – Pls Help Keep The Good Fight Alive!

(Climate sceptics/rationalists still waitin’ for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)

Help us to hit back against the bombardment of climate lies costing our communities, economies and livelihoods far, far too much.

Thanks to all those who have donated. Your support and faith in Climatism is highly motivating and greatly appreciated!

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Thank You! Jamie.

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DOES The CSIRO Still Stand By Its 2003 Snow Prediction?

Winter Forecast: Coldest On Record? CLIMATISM


“The problem isn’t that Johnny can’t read.
The problem isn’t even that Johnny can’t think.
The problem is that Johnny doesn’t know what thinking is;
he confuses it with feeling.”
– Thomas Sowell

*

AUSTRALIA’S ‘premier’ science body, the CSIRO, is a prime example of a government funded agency who has been fatally captured by global warming groupthink and climate change hysteria, resulting in a litany of failed predictions and costly fear-mongering, thanks in part to their own contribution to the global set of overheated climate models.

AN example of the CSIRO’s fealty towards the Climate Crisis Industry can be seen in the use of sea level rise figures far in excess of even the IPCC…

In its 2012 report, State of the Climate, the CSIRO says that since 1993 sea levels have risen up to 10mm a year in the north and west. That means that somewhere has had a 19cm-rise in sea level since 1993. Where is this place? The European satellite says that sea levels have been constant for the past eight years.

CSIRO alarmism more dangerous than Co2 | The Australian

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CSIRO – The End Of Snow…

A 2003 CSIRO report, part-funded by the ski industry, found that resorts could lose a quarter of their snow within 15 years…

“For the first time, they realised that their attention should be directed to a common enemy,” says Andrew Fairley, head of the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating Council, which advises the State Government and oversees the management of Victoria’s six snow resorts. “And that enemy is climate change.”

Like those who rely on the Great Barrier Reef, the Australian ski industry sees itself as a frontline victim of global warming. A 2003 CSIRO report, part-funded by the ski industry, found that the resorts could lose a quarter of their snow in 15 years, and half by 2050. The worst case was a 96 per cent loss of snow by mid-century.

Icons under threat: The Alps – General – In Depth – theage.com.au

***

CSIRO – Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths. At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/73212/TheImpactofClimateChangeonSnowConditions2003.pdf  (Page Not Found – hmm)

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ALL around the world, warmist institutions and the climate-theory-obsessed compliant mainstream media were once predicting the end of snow… Read the rest of this entry »


ANTARCTICA : It’s Time We Had That Talk


IT’S time for ‘that talk’. You know, the one we’ve been putting off because it’s ‘inconvenient’. That end-of-life conversation…

YEP! Antarctica, the ‘inconvenient’ pole, the naughty child, has been gaining ice mass and cooling for decades, despite a 20 per cent increase in atmospheric CO2, and model predictions to the contrary.

2015 NASA Study

Guardian Report 2015

2017 Study

Antartica 2017 Ice mass gain study.png

From the abstract:

Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact sea-level rise as climate changes, but recent rates have been uncertain. Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a−1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a−1.

Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses | Journal of Glaciology | Cambridge Core

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Read the rest of this entry »


70+ Scientific Papers Say: Today’s Sea Level Change Indistinguishable From Noise

Featured Image -- 24769

“It is becoming more and more apparent that sea levels rise and fall without any obvious connection to CO2 concentrations.”

Watts Up With That?

Holocene Sea Levels were 2 Meters Higher 

1. Are Modern ‘Anthropogenic’ Sea Levels Rising At An Unprecedented Rate?  No.

Despite the surge in CO2 concentrations since 1900, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that global sea levels only rose by an average of 1.7 mm/yr during the entire 1901-2010 period, which is a rate of just 0.17 of a meter per century.

During the 1958 to 2014 period, when CO2 emissions rose dramatically, a recent analysis revealed that the rate of sea level rise slowed to between 1.3 mm/yr to 1.5 mm/yr, or just 0.14 of a meter per century.

Frederiske et al.,2018  “Anthropogenic” Global Sea Level Rise Rate (1958-2014): +0.14 of a meter per century

“For the first time, it is shown that for most basins the reconstructed sea level trend and acceleration can be explained by the sum of…

View original post 893 more words


PROFESSIONAL Climate Alarmists Threatening Australia’s Billion Dollar Tourism Industry

“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007

“There is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis.”
– Tim Flannery Climate Council

This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake
.”
– Tim Flannery Climate Council

*

WHEN the Abbott Government axed the Climate Commission in 2013, in what was its very first act of government, professional alarmist Tim Flannery and his mates immediately created a Climate Council to keep up their propagandising.

IT wasn’t a hard decision for then PM Abbott to make considering the string of outlandish claims made by Flannery and the Commission…

IN what was to be their final report and parting gift to the Australian taxpayer, the Climate Commission’s 2013 “Critical Decade” report, claimed that there is a one-in-two chance that there will be no humans left on the planet by 2100

“There’s a one in two chance that by 2100 there’ll be no human beings left on this planet. The planet will exist, but it’s just that my granddaughter won’t be part of it. And I think that’s a pretty alarming statistic, probability, one in two chance if we don’t correct our behaviours.” – Former Defence Force chief Admiral Chris Barrie releasing the Climate Commission’s 2013 doomist report

SINCE then, the Climate Council has maintained its position as Australia’s premier alarmism generating machine. Every year the level of hysteria increasing faster than global temperatures.

THEIR latest report couched in pseudo-science and alarmism claims that Australia’s $40 billion tourism industry is at risk thanks to your sinful existence…

Roger Franklin in Quadrant:

This morning Tim Flannery & Co [at the Climate Council] must be tickled pink to see how much adverse publicity they have generated [with their report last week], and not merely in the domestic press. From Pakistan to the Caribbean there are stories today about the slow death of the Great Barrier Reef, the intolerable heat allegedly set to afflict the Red Centre and how big chunks of Hobart will be swallowed by the heat-swollen waters of the Great Southern Ocean.

That there are casualties and collateral damage as a consequence of one organisation’s blinkered determination to promote itself and its allies’ climate cause should not need to be stated…

[T]here were no reassuring words from Queensland Tourism Minister Kate Jones… So how did the tourism minister react to the Climate Council’s codswallop and bleak appraisal of tourism’s future? Why, God help us, she endorsed it!….

That impression that North Queensland (and the Centre and Hobart, too) are not worth a visit would be hard to avoid in light of the Reef-is-dying coverage the Climate Council orchestrated. Below, a collection of international headlines and snippets re-broadcasting word of the Reef’s impending demise:

From Pakistan:

Australian Tourism Industry Under Climate Change Threat

From Singapore:

Climate change threatens Aussie tourism

From the far-off Caribbean:

Australia tourism industry under climate change threat – study

From the Middle East and broadcast to the entire world:

Why are coral reefs important and why are they dying?

From Britain’s home-counties edition of the Guardian:

Tourism is the Australian industry least prepared for climate change, report says

From China:

Climate change to cripple Australian tourism industry: report

From Malaysia:

Australia tourism industry under climate change threat, study warns

From the US, for seniors who travel:

Aussie tourism hotspots threatened by climate change

For international investors:

Australia’s popular tourist destinations are in the climate firing line: report

All in all, not a bad day’s damage for the Climate Council to inflict on an innocent industry.

The Climate Council’s Global Damage — Quadrant Online

THIS latest episode of climate alarmism churned out of Flannery’s panic-factory, based solely on the ‘evidence’ of broken and overheated UN IPCC computer models further trashes Australia’s international reputation, directly affecting the crucial tourist industry and the livelihoods of the good people who are employed within it.

MORE evidence that climate alarmism has cost far more than any slight global warming ever could!

ONLY recently, three surveys conducted showed an estimated 175,000 fewer tourists could visit Australia based on the coral bleaching threat. A threat since proven alarmist and overblown.

AT risk, an estimated 10,000 jobs. How many more are at risk now?

WHO will be made accountable or held responsible for the exaggeration of data and wreckless alarmism? No one, of course. Because again, the worst any climate change alarmist can ever be accused of is an excess of “Save the planet” virtue.

Mad times.

•••

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•••

See more Flannery :

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Record Breaking Winter Cold? Don’t Worry, the Climate Explainers Have it Covered

“Even this week’s cold weather is probably being caused at least in part by global warming, said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.”

BUT wait, there’s more! …

“So what happens if global temperatures take a real plunge for a sustained period? Don’t worry, the explainers have that one covered as well – James Hansen, former NASA GISS Director, published a paper which suggests global warming will trigger a short ice age in the near future…”

ERGO, no! There is no “weather or climate shift [that could] cast doubt on the dominance of that wicked little trace molecule.”

HOT, cold, wet, dry, snow, drought, flood, heatwave, blizzard – it’s ALL “global warming” aka “climate change” aka “climate disruption” and it’s ALL your fault!

🤦‍♂️

Watts Up With That?

Graph from p3768 of J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms. Graph from p3768 of J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms.

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Does record breaking winter cold cast doubt on climate predictions of milder winters? Could ANY weather or climate shift cast doubt on the dominance of that wicked little trace molecule? Apparently not, according to leading climate explainers.

It’s cold outside, but that doesn’t mean climate change isn’t real

Sammy Roth, USA TODAY Published 5:13 p.m. ET Dec. 28, 2017

This week’s cold snap has brought record-low temperatures, freezing rain and heavy snow to much of the United States. But 2017 is still on track to be the second- or third-hottest year ever recorded globally — and scientists say climate change is to blame.

Even this week’s cold weather is probably being caused at least in part by global warming, said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.

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Alan Carlin: None of the climate alarmist apocalypses have occurred or are even possible

“The alarmists’ 12 apocalyptic predictions have proved uniformly wrong. That’s zero percent correct.”

WITH so much of the public’s money spent (Trillion upon trillions) on “Climate Change” aka “Global Warming” aka “Climate Disruption” aka “Climate Crisis”, any sane person would naturally conclude that there is an actual “Climate Crisis”.

HOWEVER, outside of overheated U.N. climate models and daily hysteria from the sycophant lamestream media, there is still no tangible “Climate Crisis”.

THE name change from “global warming” to “climate change” is perhaps the biggest giveaway. Owing to the peer-reviewed, scientific fact that the planet stopped warming around 20 years ago.

https://climatism.wordpress.com/2017/11/23/the-great-global-warming-pause/

ENTER “climate change” – hot, cold, wet, dry, flood, drought, blizzard – it’s all your fault and you and your “unsustainable” lifestyles are ‘changing’ the weather – whatever that means.

AND, what is the mythical perfect climate that alarmists want? What if we stop ALL hydrocarbon based energy tomorrow and there’s a hurricane next year? Or what happens if Australia has a heatwave? How many days should it last? How much less or more rain is better if we get serious and live in caves? Will the weather be eternally idyllic for modern cave-dwelling?

WILL the pontificators of the media driven climate hysteria; DiCaprio, Al Gore, Obama, Bill Nye, The Pope et al live in caves too?

CLEARLY they won’t. But why not? After all, there is a genuine “climate crisis” right? Or at least they tell us that there is. Everyday.

EITHER way, cave or no cave, Leonardo DiCaprio’s new island development is a serious death trap according to what he preaches atop the U.N. pulpit. Whoever advised him to build on an island when sea levels are meant to rise by 10-100 feet by 2100 according to experts like Leo.

MAYBE, just maybe he’s lying his ass off to feed the biggest scientific fraud ever perpetrated upon mankind.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy
Lack of predictive success is a strong warning sign that something is amiss in the world of climate science in general and its modelling in particular.

The climate alarmists have long tried to sell their apocalyptic scam by claiming that their policies will avoid catastrophic increases in global temperatures, writes Alan Carlin.

The Daily Caller has recently inventoried some of the widely publicized such climate apocalypses predicted over the last 30 years by examining 12 of them.

The alarmists’ 12 apocalyptic predictions have proved uniformly wrong. That’s zero percent correct.

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Freeman Dyson On ‘Heretical’ Thoughts About Global Warmimg

“Scientific experts are paid and encouraged to provide answers. The public does not have much use for a scientist who says, “Sorry, but we don’t know”. The public prefers to listen to scientists who give confident answers to questions and make confident predictions of what will happen as a result of human activities.

“Their predictions become dogmas which they do not question. The public is led to believe that the fashionable scientific dogmas are true, and it may sometimes happen that they are wrong. That is why heretics who question the dogmas are needed.”

FREEMAN DYSON, one the great scientific minds of our time. Well worth reading his entire essay.

I disagree with his statement; “I am not saying that the warming does not cause problems. Obviously it does.”

I would argue slight warming is beneficial to humanity versus the cold which kills at a ratio of 20:1. Cold is also the enemy of food production too.

HE somewhat clarifies by correctly pointing out, “I am saying that the problems are grossly exaggerated.” And the vast amount of public money spent on AGW theory could be better spent on “poverty and infectious disease and public education and public health, and the preservation of living creatures on land and in the oceans.”

Watts Up With That?

By Freeman Dyson

My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak.

But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in.

The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we…

View original post 2,206 more words


SCIENTISTS : ‘Loud Divergence Between Sea-Level Reality And Climate Change Theory’

sea_level_rise_alarmism_NYC.jpg

Experts tell us that New York City and London will be underwater in the next 50 years | Daily Mail

SEA LEVEL RISE alarmism is just one in a long line of propaganda metrics used by the climate crisis industry to promote the narrative that your CO2 emissions are causing unprecedented climate change.

OF course none of the carefully orchestrated fear-mongering is based on observed reality, rather, worst-case-scenario climate models that are designed to scare you and policy makers into belief.

THE veracity of global climate models were recently put under the microscope by a group of ‘warmist’ climate scientists who published a bombshell paper that admitted the estimates of global warming used for years to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on non-carbon energy sources were, er, wrong.

IN February 2016, climate scientist Dr. John Christy presented testimony to U.S. Congress demonstrating that the UN IPCC’s CMIP5 climate models grossly exaggerate and over estimate the impact of atmospheric CO2 levels on global temperatures. Dr. Christy noted in his testimony that “models over-warm the tropical atmosphere by a factor of approximately three″.

christy-cmip5

UN IPCC CMIP5 Climate models Vs Observations – chart presented by John Christy PhD to US Senate Congress on Climate Change

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Reality vs. Theory: Scientists Affirm ‘Recent Lack Of Any Detectable Acceleration’ In Sea Level Rise

AUSTRALIAN scientists have published a new paper in the journal Earth Systems and Environment that highlights the “loud divergence between sea level reality” and “the climate models [that] predict an accelerated sea-level rise driven by the anthropogenic CO2 emission“.

More via NoTricksZone :

THE key finding from the paper is that long-term observations from tide gauges reveal a “recent lack of any detectable acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise“. The modern rate of sea level rise acceleration – 0.002 mm/year² – is so negligible it falls well below the threshold of measurement accuracy.

The lack of a detectable global-scale sea level rise acceleration recorded in tide gauge measurements isn’t a novel finding.  In recent years, dozens of other scientists have bravely come forward to challenge “consensus” modeling that implicates anthropogenic CO2 emissions as the preeminent cause of ice sheet melt and sea level rise.

Perhaps at some point “consensus”-based climate science will jettison its focus on models and projections of perilous future climate states directly caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions and instead embrace the observational evidence that may undermine the alarm.

Until then, we will likely need to continue learning about how many millimeters we humans raise sea levels for each kilometer we drive in our fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. Because that’s how “consensus” climate science works.

Lack-of-Sea-Level-Rise-Acceleration-Parker-Ollier-2017

Read on…

Reality vs. Theory: Scientists Affirm ‘Recent Lack Of Any Detectable Acceleration’ In Sea Level Rise | NoTricksZone

SERIOUS questions need to be asked as to how predictive models that do not observe reality can be used so un-objectively to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on unreliable-energy sources, and fund a now vast industry of research grants, environment lobby firms and advisory businesses of all types.

OVERHEATED climate models also provide the basis for billions of dollars in trading climate credits, many thousands of well-paid government jobs in climate bureaucracies, and, of course, the trillion dollar green energy industry.

ALL this using *other-peoples’-hard-earned-money*.

•••

INCONVENIENT UPDATE

MOST mainstream media outlets will not report something that dramatically deflates their narrative. So it goes without saying that when NASA confirmed that ocean levels have actually paused, even falling for the past few years, the media couldn’t be more than silent…

Inconvenient: NASA shows global sea level…pausing, instead of rising

Via WUWT :

This is interesting. It appears that a “pause” has developed in global sea levels. For two years, since July 2015, there has been no sustained increase in global sea level, in fact, it appears to have actually fallen a bit. This graph, provided by NASA’s Global Climate Change website, tells the story:

A zoom of the area of interest, two years prior to the most recent data point.

 

The satellite derived sea level data is also available here: ftp://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/allData/merged_alt/L2/TP_J1_OSTM/global_mean_sea_level/GMSL_TPJAOS_V4_199209_201708.txt

NASA says on that website:

Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of sea water as it warms. The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed by satellites.

Hmmm, I think they left something out of that description.

The other source for sea level data, at the University of Colorado, also shows a pause, though they have not yet updated their data for 2017:

What I found most interesting on the UC sea level page was this graph, showing the correlation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global sea level. [Readers] may recall that in 2015, there was a massive spike of an El Niño event:

The correlation between ENSO and sea level seems strong.

Note this image from a NASA Visualization Video, which shows water piling up in the Western Pacific over the past 22 years. Wind pattern shifts are a signature of ENSO events, and they push water westward where it piles up.

Here is another projection of the same data, showing that water has been piling up in the Western Pacific:

I wonder what the rate of sea level rise would look like is we masked out El Nino events? I’m guessing it would be far, far, less than what is being claimed as “global”.

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Sea-Level Rise Fraud Related :

Sea Level Rise Alarmism Related :

Mainstream Media Sea Level Rise Alarmism :