THE Inconvenient Truth Is That Catastrophists Are Wrong

Eco-catastrophists - THE AUSTRALIAN

Institutionalised data bias is a handy default for radical-left eco-catastrophists who have a tendency to extract worst-case scenarios from every weather event. | THE AUSTRALIAN

GLOBAL warming alarmists want to change us, they want to change our behaviour, our way of life, our values and preferences. They want to restrict our freedom because they themselves believe they know what is good for us. They are not interested in climate or the environment. They misuse the climate in their goal to restrict our freedom. Therefore, what is in danger is freedom, not the climate.

FORMER head of Deutsche Bank, the ABC and ASX, Maurice Newman, writes another insightful piece in todays Australian maintaining that “it’s not carbon dioxide that threatens us with extinction but blind ideology dressed up as science.”

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The inconvenient truth is that catastrophists are wrong

Maurice Newman | The Australian :

It should come as a great relief to know the freezing temperatures recently experienced in the northern hemisphere do not signal an end to global warming.

Imagine if mankind’s increasingly costly attempts to arrest CO2 emissions were unnecessary. That the misallocation of productive resources, prolonging the misery of the world’s most vulnerable people, was nothing more than a cynical ideological exercise?

Hopefully, those global warming doubters in Florida watching frozen iguanas falling stiff from the trees now know that while they were freezing, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, little old Penrith in Sydney, Australia, was the warmest spot on the planet, recording its highest temperature ever, having “broken the all-time maximum temperature record for … the Sydney metropolitan area”.

Well, perhaps in all that excitement the bureau can be forgiven for overlooking the fact Penrith Lakes started recording temperatures only in 1995 and for missing a much higher temperature recorded in nearby Richmond in 1939. But they were right. It was hot.

In a hurried piece in Fairfax publications, the Climate Council of Australia’s Will Steffen throws hot water on any misconceptions that may have been drawn from abnormal snowfalls in Britain, Switzerland and Japan, the record-breaking cold snap in Canada and the US, and the expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

He says: “Terms like ‘global warming’ and the mental images they trigger can be misleading when people attempt to understand what is happening to the climate. A far better term is ‘climate disruption’, which captures the real nature of the vast array of changes, many of them abrupt and unexpected, that are occurring.” So fire and ice, it’s to be expected.

Of course you won’t be surprised to learn Steffen claims “the climate disruption we are increasingly experiencing is not natural. It is caused by the heat-trapping gases we humans are pouring into the atmosphere primarily by the burning of coal, oil and gas.”

On the day Steffen’s opinion piece appeared, this newspaper republished Matt Ridley’s article in The Times claiming “the Earth is very slowly slipping back into a proper ice age”. This confirms research by Henrik Svensmark, Australia’s David Evans and others, who correlated low solar activity (fewer sunspots) and increased cloud cover (as modulated by cosmic rays), with a cooling climate.

Indeed, last year scientists submitted 120 papers linking historical and modern climate change to variations in solar activity.

Steffen wasn’t among them. He says: “Whole ecosystems are succumbing to (human-induced) climate disruption. In 2016 unusually dry and hot conditions triggered massive fires in Tasmania’s World Heritage forests, while ocean circulation patterns have moved ­unprecedented underwater heatwaves around the world, driving the tragic coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.’’

Yet the chairman of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Russell Reichelt, dismisses many of the claims that he says “misrepresent the extent and impact of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.”

Peter Ridd from James Cook University goes further, saying: “We can no longer trust the scientific organisations like the ARC (Australian Research Council) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies. The science is coming out not properly checked, tested or replicated, and this is a great shame.”

Steffen’s work could fit this description. He spends much time pushing eco-catastrophism. “Climate disruption” he says “brings growing risks of large-scale migration and conflict as people, particularly the most vulnerable, are forced to deal with increasingly difficult conditions where they live. Some security analysts warn that climate disruption will dwarf terrorism and other conventional threats if present trends continue or worsen.

“Had enough of climate disruption? Then let’s leave our 20th-century thinking behind and get on with the job of rapidly building innovative, clever, carbon-neutral 21st-century societies.”

But Ridley questions the influence of carbon dioxide. He reminds us that: “In 1895 the Swede, Svante Arrhenius, one of the scientists who first championed the greenhouse theory, suggested that the ice retreated because carbon dioxide levels rose, and advanced because they fell. If this was true, then industrial emissions could head off the next ice age. There is indeed a correlation in the ice cores between temperature and carbon dioxide, but inconveniently it is the wrong way round: carbon dioxide follows rather than leads temperature downward when the ice returns.”

But where would manmade global warming “science” be if it relied on just facts? For decades, climate science has been plagued by scandals, deceit and the confessions of whistleblowers.

Penrith’s hyped recording is not new. Scientist and long-time BOM critic Jennifer Marohasy has been calling for an audit and urging Energy and Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg “to inform the World Meteorological Organisation that the temperatures recorded by our bureau are not consistent with calibration, nor any international standard”, and, to “direct the bureau to desist from announcing new record hot days”.

Still, institutionalised data bias is a handy default for radical-left eco-catastrophists who have a tendency to extract worst-case scenarios from every weather event.

But despite their best efforts, in the public’s eyes their story is wearing thin. There have been too many false predictions and unwarranted alarmism. People are wising up to the reality that climate science has become an unfalsifiable ideology and resent having their moral conscience questioned should they disagree.

If Ridley is right and the earth is slowly slipping back into a proper ice age, it will be literally cold comfort, not to mention lethal, to keep passing it off as climate disruption.

To survive such an event, our successors will need a plentiful supply of cheap, reliable energy, impossible given today’s intelligentsia’s religious objection to low-cost fossil and nuclear fuels.

It’s not carbon dioxide that threatens us with extinction but blind ideology dressed up as science.

(Climatism bolds and pic link added)

The inconvenient truth is that catastrophists are wrong | The Australian

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Record Breaking Winter Cold? Don’t Worry, the Climate Explainers Have it Covered

“Even this week’s cold weather is probably being caused at least in part by global warming, said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.”

BUT wait, there’s more! …

“So what happens if global temperatures take a real plunge for a sustained period? Don’t worry, the explainers have that one covered as well – James Hansen, former NASA GISS Director, published a paper which suggests global warming will trigger a short ice age in the near future…”

ERGO, no! There is no “weather or climate shift [that could] cast doubt on the dominance of that wicked little trace molecule.”

HOT, cold, wet, dry, snow, drought, flood, heatwave, blizzard – it’s ALL “global warming” aka “climate change” aka “climate disruption” and it’s ALL your fault!

🤦‍♂️

Watts Up With That?

Graph from p3768 of J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms. Graph from p3768 of J. Hansen et al.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms.

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Does record breaking winter cold cast doubt on climate predictions of milder winters? Could ANY weather or climate shift cast doubt on the dominance of that wicked little trace molecule? Apparently not, according to leading climate explainers.

It’s cold outside, but that doesn’t mean climate change isn’t real

Sammy Roth, USA TODAY Published 5:13 p.m. ET Dec. 28, 2017

This week’s cold snap has brought record-low temperatures, freezing rain and heavy snow to much of the United States. But 2017 is still on track to be the second- or third-hottest year ever recorded globally — and scientists say climate change is to blame.

Even this week’s cold weather is probably being caused at least in part by global warming, said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.

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The Economist Peddles Extreme Weather Lies

Warren Buffett is at least brutally honest as to why climate change alarmism means big business for his re-insurance business (from a 2014 interview):

Interviewer: How has the latest rise of extreme weather events changed the calculus on Ajit Jain in reinsurance?

Warren Buffett: “The public has the impression, because there has been so much talk about climate, that the events of the last ten years have been unusual. …They haven’t. We’ve been remarkably free of hurricanes in the last five years. If you’ve been writing hurricane insurance it’s been all profit.”

Warren Buffett: “I love apocalyptic predictions, because … they probably do affect rates…”

https://climatism.wordpress.com/2014/03/05/climate-change-alarmism-is-big-business-for-billionaire-buffett/

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/906739904788430848

The Economist has been running this video on Twitter, with the usual fraudulent claims.

The film uses two examples:

  • Hurricane Harvey
  • Bangladesh flooding.

They forget to mention that Texas has had even more intensive storms in the past, notably 1978 and 1979, and that Bangladesh regularly floods.

But the headline claim is based on this graph:

image

The first thing to highlight about this, which should really give the whole away as an giant fraud, is that there were apparently virtually no extreme weather events in the early 20thC. Nobody with half a brain could seriously believe this, but apparently Economist readers do.

There appears to be no provenance given for this graph, which in itself is utterly damning for a supposedly serious journal. But it seems to be based on a similarly fraudulent claim from the insurance company, Munich Re, which was doing the rounds a…

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LIVE FOOTAGE As Hurricane Irma Destroys St Maarten Beach Cam

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KLM 747 on final approach at St Maarten Airport

Maho Beach is a beach on the Dutch side of the Caribbean island of Saint Martin, in the territory of Sint Maarten. It is famous for the Princess Juliana International Airport adjacent to the beach.

The Maho Beach Cam recorded these two horrendous clips before it was destroyed by “The BeastIrma, packing wind speeds of 185 MPH (297 KMH)…

Maho Beach Cam – SXM Airport Cam on St Maarten – Huracan Irma pasando por San Martin, impresionantes imágenes – YouTube

CAT 5 Hurricane Irma Latest News – Wed September 6, 22:36 (Singapore Time)

Models have revealed Hurricane Irma is the “” as it has already hit much of the Caribbean, with St Kitts and Antigua next.

The National Hurricane Center said Irma was maintaining its Category 5 strength with sustained winds near 185 MPH.

Hurricane warnings remain in place across the Caribbean and many people in the immediate path of Irma have been left without power.

Hurricane Irma’s strength has triggered seismometers, which are designed to measure earthquakes as the Category 5 storm creates life-threatening storm surges along its path.

Officials in Florida have begun ordering evacuations after US forecast models predicted southern tip of Florida being caught up in Irma’s path.

The NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, has told Americans in hurricane-prone areas to brace themselves for Hurricane Irma to reach land.

The latest update from the NHC said: “The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.

“However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States.”

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The Weather Channel HD Live Stream – Tracking Hurricane Irma

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Live: HURRICANE IRMA Tracking, CAT 5 185 MPH to SLAM FLORIDA – Orlando Hurricane

Live: HURRICANE IRMA Tracking, CAT 5 185 MPH to SLAM FLORIDA – Orlando Hurricane – YouTube

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EPIC videos of Irma eyewall via WUWT

This was taken earlier today by the new GOES-16 weather satellite, which has been producing some fantastic hi-res imagery of Hurricane Irma, This video, from NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) in Huntsville, AL, tops anything I’ve ever seen.

Here is the same sequence, zoomed out a bit further:

 

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UPDATE 7 September :

Hurricane Irma Aftermath (Anguilla/St.Maarten/St.Martin)…

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UDATE 7 September 20:50 (Singapore Time) :

“And we can see that Irma is not in the same league as the others.”

MORE sane and measured ‘scientific’ analysis from Paul Homewood. Refreshing, amongst the diatribe of alarmist speculation and theorising from the usual climate ambulance chasing suspects…

Is Irma The Most Powerful Atlantic Storm?

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Is Irma The Most Powerful Atlantic Storm? | Climatism

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UPDATE 7 September 23:00

Barbuda

From reliable news sources, up to 95% of Barbuda was flattened by Irma…

Via The Telegraph:

‘Literally rubble’: Barbuda, the unknown Caribbean island that Diana loved, devastated by Irma

Bermuda and Barbados, sure. But Barbuda? You may never have heard of it.

We’d forgive you for having little knowledge of this Caribbean island, which, sadly, seems to have made its first appearance in global consciousness as the victim of Hurricane Irma.

“Barbuda now is literally rubble,” said prime minister Gaston Browne. “It is heart-wrenching, absolutely devastating.” He said some 95 per cent of the island’s buildings had been damaged.

‘Literally rubble’: Barmuda, the unknown Caribbean island that Diana loved, devastated by Irma |The Telegraph

 

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UPDATE 8 September 00:40 (Singapore Time) :

Necker Island, Sir Richard Branson’s private island

“Richard Branson’s luxury Necker Island home completely destroyed by Hurricane Irma” | METRO UK

Richard Branson’s son has posted to say that people staying on Necker Island are safe, but the buildings on the island have been destroyed.

Sam Branson posted on instagram from the luxury retreat in the British Virgin Islands as he warned others in the path of the storm to find safe shelter

Read more: Richard Branson’s luxury Necker Island home completely destroyed by Hurricane Irma | Metro News

Meanwhile…

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UPDATE 8 September 02:25 (Singapore Time) (7/9 14:25 ET USA) :

Damage hurricane Irma St Maarten seen from naval helicopter

H/t @aseemcam

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UPDATE 8 September 08:50 (Singapore Time) :

TWO’S A PARTY, THREE’S A CROWD!

Incredible sat pic of the three hurricanes spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin…

via WUWT :

It is not often that you get to see two Atlantic and one Gulf of Mexico hurricanes all at once on a single satellite image, but we live in “interesting times” and the remarkable imagery from the new GOES-16 spacecraft continues to impress the world.

Hurricane expert Dr. Philip Klotzbach says:

Currently have 3 hurricanes w/ 2 major hurricanes in Atlantic – 4th time on record we’ve had 3 hurricanes w/ 2 majors at same time. Other three years w/ 3 hurricanes & 2 major hurricanes in Atlantic were 1893, 1961 and 2010.

Here, I’ve taken several snips and made a hi-res composite image to show a half-disk view of the Western Hemisphere as seen by visible light by GOES-16. Dr. Roy Spencer commented on Facebook today that

“[the] current view from space is beautiful….”.

On that I agree, it’s also Nature’s deadliness on display. Like the famous “blue marble” image from 1968, this image too is a bit humbling, and a reminder that no matter how much we want to believe we can control weather/climate through our actions and lifestyle, Nature, when it so chooses, can squish us like a bug.

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AFTERMATH Footage (Lesser Antilles) :

Anguilla copping a pounding from Irma. This is what a CAT 5 eyewall looks and feels like…

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UPDATE 8 September 13:25 (Singapore Time) (8/9 00:25 ET USA) :

Via WUWT :

Monster Hurricane #Irma – sat measurements show it larger than the state of Florida is long

irma-florida 8.9.17 13-30.jpg

From the National Hurricane Center at 11PM EDT tonight:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

From: http://www.netstate.com/states/geography/fl_geography.htm

Florida is 500 miles long and 160 miles wide at its most distant points.

That includes the Keys and the panhandle. Using Google Earth, I measured the length of the Florida peninsula (minus the Keys) and came up with ~391 miles.

Measuring the size of Irma, based on the densest cloud bands, it shows ~528 miles in diameter from outer dense cloud bands through the eye. I also did a measurement across the panhandle from Tampa to Cape Canaveral and came up with ~139 miles.

With hurricane tropical storm force winds extending “outward up to 185 miles” according to NHC, that means that if the storms holds in strength, the entire width of the Florida panhandle may get tropical storm force winds (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h). That’s sobering, especially in light of this track projection:

Irma is certainly bigger than hurricane Andrew, seen here in 1992:

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More updates soon…


Hurricane expert Maue: extrapolating scale, #Irma could be a “Category 6”

Holy s**t. Something block her. Carnage.

Watts Up With That?

Dr. Ryan Maue said this morning:

Hurricane is still intensifying. Now up to 155-knots (180 mph) Extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.

NWS says: (bold mine)

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several mesovortices rotating within with eye. The aircraft have not sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. A peak SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin…

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THE “Blizzard Of Oz” That Wasn’t Meant To Be

Blizzard of Oz.jpg

Australian snowfields rejoice after ‘Blizzard of Oz’ turns slopes into winter wonderland

via ABC.net.au

It’s been dubbed “the Blizzard of Oz”, and powder hounds could not be happier.

Australia’s ski resorts in the Snowy Mountains, in New South Wales, and Victoria’s Alpine National Park were covered with the white stuff this morning after both reported the best falls of the season at the weekend.

More than 1.15 metres of snow has been dumped at Thredbo from Friday morning to 6:00am today.

Blizzard of Oz1.jpgPHOTO: More than 1.15 metres of snow has been dumped at Thredbo. (Instagram: @_carlyt) Blizzard of Oz2.jpg

PHOTO: Mt Hotham, in Victoria’s Alpine National Park, looked more like Europe at the weekend. (Instagram: @sarahwhite2017)Blizzard of Oz3.jpgPHOTO: The snow at Falls Creek. (Instagram: @fallscreek)

Australian snowfields rejoice after ‘Blizzard of Oz’ turns slopes into winter wonderland – ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
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BUT, wasn’t ‘snowfall’ meant to be “a very rare and exciting event.” And, that “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” ?

Those expert predictions made back in 2000 by esteemed climatologist Dr David Viner of the UK’s CRU (Climate Research Unit):

From the Independent’s most cited article: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past” by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

THE Independent has since removed the article! The page used to look like this:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past-404

The original article:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past-original

Link now boots back to their homepage.

Our friends at WUWT have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – The Independent (PDF)

In fairness, perhaps the good Dr Viner was colluding consulting with the virtuous partners of climate catastrophe expertise – the UN IPCC who, as well, predicted diminished snowfalls as human CO2 increased…

ipcc-less-snow

IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001 – Complete online versions | GRID-Arendal – Publications – Other

warmer-winters-ipcc

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Australia’s “premier” scientific government organisation, the (warmist) CSIRO, jumped on the “end of snow” bandwagon in August 2003:

Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths.  At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

https://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/73212/TheImpactofClimateChangeonSnowConditions2003.pdf 

(Page Not Found – LOL !)

In 2014, the New York Times signalled “The End of Snow”:ScreenHunter_314 Feb. 07 11.00

The End of Snow? – NYTimes.com

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BACK IN THE REAL WORLD

Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent is trending upwards, and 2017 was amongst the highest on record, despite rising CO2 emissions and the “Hottest Year Evah” thing:

Screen Shot 2017-08-07 at , August 7, 4.07.56 PM

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

AND as for the expert predictions of the CSIRO, who assured us of the end of snow by 2020/2030…

Australia’s snowfields have been overdosed by snow over the past decade.

In fact, SH snow extent is increasing as global CO2 rises – the exact opposite of what you were told by all those experts

2016 – Extended season:

screen-shot-2017-02-22-at-february-22-8-05-58-pm

Heavy snow forecast for the Australian Alps despite ski season ending a month ago

2017 – THE “Blizzard Of Oz” ! :

Blizzard of Oz4.jpg

Blizzards close in on Melbourne, floods hit South Australia | The Australian

WHEN will those expert scientists, esteemed government agencies and respected mainstream media outlets who peddle the fake global warming catastrophe, spreading scientific falsehoods with impunity, be held to account? Or at least admit they got it wrong?

That “science” certainly ain’t “settled”.

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UPDATE – August 8, 2017

Emergency services warn of avalanches in Victoria’s alpine region

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at , August 8, 8.45.01 AM.png

Click to Play…

EMERGENCY services have issued an avalanche warning for Victoria’s alpine region as tourists have been urged to avoid skiing, snowboarding, or hiking in remote areas.

Warmer weather and strong wind is expected to increase the risk of avalanches at Mt Bogong, mt feathertop, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Falls Creek today.

Victorian alpine region: avalanche warning issued for skiers, snowboarders | Herald Sun

DO hope SMH’s (Fairfax media) resident global warming catastrophist Peter Hannam has received this alert, if he plans to visit Australia’s ski fields. The one’s that he and those expert scientists say won’t be around much longer thanks to you and your SUV…

Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope

Peter Hannam Peter Hannam

August 5 – Last week’s fake news – Sydney Morning Herald

Australia’s ski resorts face the prospect of a long downhill run as a warming climate reduces snow depth, cover and duration. The industry’s ability to create artificial snow will also be challenged, scientists say.

Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope

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UPDATE September 8 :

Perisher Ski Resorts elated with #BlizzardOfOz3…

More Than 130cm of Snow – Best in 17 years!

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Related :

CSIRO Dud-Predictions Related :

 


NASA: Global acreage burned by fire has dropped 24% since 1998

Man made CO2-induced wildfire proliferation update…

Watts Up With That?

NASA detects drop in global fires

Shifting livelihoods across the tropical forest frontiers of South America, the Eurasian Steppe, and the savannas of Africa are altering landscapes and leading to a significant decline in the amount of land burned by fire, a trend that NASA’s satellites have detected from space.

The global area of land burned each year declined by 24 percent between 1998 and 2015, according to analysis of satellite data by NASA scientists and their colleagues. The largest decline was seen across savannas in Africa, and due to changing livelihoods. CREDIT Credits: Joshua Stevens/NASA’s Earth Observatory

The ongoing transition from nomadic cultures to settled lifestyles and intensifying agriculture has led to a steep drop not only in the use of fire on local lands, but in the prevalence of fire worldwide, researchers at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and colleagues found.

Globally, the total acreage burned by…

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