“Scientific experts are paid and encouraged to provide answers. The public does not have much use for a scientist who says, “Sorry, but we don’t know”. The public prefers to listen to scientists who give confident answers to questions and make confident predictions of what will happen as a result of human activities.
“Their predictions become dogmas which they do not question. The public is led to believe that the fashionable scientific dogmas are true, and it may sometimes happen that they are wrong. That is why heretics who question the dogmas are needed.”
FREEMAN DYSON, one the great scientific minds of our time. Well worth reading his entire essay.
I disagree with his statement; “I am not saying that the warming does not cause problems. Obviously it does.”
I would argue slight warming is beneficial to humanity versus the cold which kills at a ratio of 20:1. Cold is also the enemy of food production too.
HE somewhat clarifies by correctly pointing out, “I am saying that the problems are grossly exaggerated.” And the vast amount of public money spent on AGW theory could be better spent on “poverty and infectious disease and public education and public health, and the preservation of living creatures on land and in the oceans.”
By Freeman Dyson
My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak.
But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in.
The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we…
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“It’s now clear that Mitch Taylor was right to be skeptical of sea ice models based on pessimistic climate change assumptions…”
EXCELLENT. Great post SC 🐻
You could call it karma — the death of the polar bear icon after the shameful hubris of polar bear experts back in 2009.
That year, the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group booted 20-year member Mitch Taylor out of their organization, explaining that his skeptical views on human-caused global warming were “extremely unhelpful” to their polar bear conservation agenda.
Said chairman Andrew Derocher in his email to Taylor: “Time will tell who is correct.”
It’s now clear that Mitch Taylor was right to be skeptical of sea ice models based on pessimistic climate change assumptions; he was also right to be more optimistic than his PBSG colleagues about the ability of polar bears to adapt to changing sea ice conditions (Taylor and Dowsley 2008), since the bears have turned out to be more resilient than even he expected.
Fat polar bears — not starving ones — dominate photos taken in…
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“One of the key predicted observations of anthropogenic CO2 climate theory is the existence of an equatorial tropospheric hotspot.
“But nobody has yet managed to unequivocally detect that predicted hotspot.”
IMO, one of the most important pieces of the “global warming” aka “climate change” aka “climate disruption” debate … the missing ‘Hot-Spot’.
Dr David Evans wrote an excellent piece on the missing “hot spot” back in 2008:
“No Smoking Hot Spot”
“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” – Albert Einstein
German garden gnome. By Colibri1968 at English Wikipedia (Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons.) [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsGuest essay by Eric Worrall
One thing which struck me about the recent climate science hearing is how little attention was paid to Dr. John Christy’s demonstration of a flawed climate model prediction – the missing Tropospheric hotspot.
A flawed prediction does not automatically mean the models are totally wrong – but it is a strong indicator that something isn’t right.
Consider the primary observation. The world has warmed since the mid 1850s, and for the sake of argument lets assume that the world has warmed since the mid 1930s.
Given that warming, you could propose a number of different theories for the cause of that warming, for example;
1. Chaotic shifts in ocean currents or solar influences have influenced global temperature.
2. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions have caused global temperature to rise
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““That’s why this hearing is going to be so much fun,” Smith said with a huge grin on his normally impassive face.”
Mann-made climate change on the Congressional senate stand! I cannot wait. Nor can the popcorn 🍿!
Representative Lamar Smith (R–TX) rarely expresses his true feelings in public.
But speaking yesterday to a like-minded crowd of climate change doubters and skeptics, the chairman of the science committee in the U.S. House of Representatives acknowledged that the committee is now a tool to advance his political agenda rather than a forum to examine important issues facing the U.S. research community.
“Next week we’re going to have a hearing on our favorite subject of climate change and also on the scientific method, which has been repeatedly ignored by the so-called self-professed climate scientists,” Smith told the Heartland Institute’s 12th annual conference on climate change in Washington, D.C.
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An important, must read.
Guest Opinion; Dr. Tim Ball
Scientists lost the scientific script somewhere in the 20th century. The major loss involved the fact that correlation is not cause and effect. It was lost for several reasons:
- Failure to know or consistently apply scientific methods;
- Lack of ethics as the end justifies the means;
- Methods and process are not taught or emphasized;
- People are more willing to bypass or ignore everything for funding;
- Too many are willing to subjugate or exploit research for a political agenda;
- Achieving results to advance a career is more important;
- A person gets caught up in Groupthink as they go along to get along;
- and scientists are unwilling to look to themselves to stop the rot.
All of these reasons were on display in the leaked emails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU).
An example of the problem of correlation occurred recently on TV screen when a…
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“It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
From the department of settled science :
CSIRO research commissioned by the federal government … predicted small but significant falls in likely wave heights as temperatures rose.
Their June 2010 research said wave heights could fall by a “relatively robust” 5mm-10mm along the NSW coast by the end of the century.
“Projected changes are larger and significant on the northern coast,” it said.
Big waves are energetically costly for fish, and there are more big waves than ever…
“There has been a lot of recent work in oceanography documenting the fact that waves are becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate change,” says Mr Dominique Roche, PhD candidate from the Research School of Biology.
Bigger, smaller, whatever. It’s global warming.
Contradictory studies of wave heights caused by ‘climate change’ are another example of how the robust science of climate remains conveniently ‘unfalsifiable’.
The most glaring example of this, lies in the name change from “Global Warming” to “Climate Change”, occurring around 2004, after global temperatures refused to rise post El Niño peak, 1998. 16 years on, global temperatures remain flat, despite 35% of all human CO2 emissions, since 1751, emitted over the same period.
As long as the climate changes, “Climate Change” is proven. And only “deniers” deny climate change!
Global Warming has been dropped like a hot potato because it is too precise and can be refuted by facts, so “Climate Change” suits the purpose much better.
Albert Einstein once said, “No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” Einstein’s words express a foundational principle of science intoned by the logician, Karl Popper: Falsifiability. In order to verify a hypothesis there must be a test by which it can be proved false. A thousand observations may appear to verify a hypothesis, but one critical failure could result in its demise.
A hypothesis that cannot be falsified by empirical observations, is not science.
No Tricks Zone has compiled a list of examples that demonstrate how the hypothesis of climate change cannot be falsified, therefore is not science.
- Bishop Hill blog – Falsifiability in my lifetime
- “Climate Change” is Not Falsifiable and Thus Not Science
- Unfalsifiable Science – Proof Of Climate Change – No Tricks Zone
- To the IPCC: Forget about “30 years” | Watts Up With That?
Climatism Links :
- Climate Change Alarmism Is Big Business For Billionaire Buffett | Climatism
- Global Warming Is The Greatest And Most Successful Pseudoscientific Fraud In History | CACA
- NATURE STUDY Confirms Global Warming Stopped 15 Years Ago | CACA
- Establishing Propaganda Is Vital For Climate Action
- Shock news : UN Carbon Regime Would Devastate Humanity | CACA
- “In Searching For A New Enemy To Unite Us, We Came Up With The Threat Of Global Warming” | CACA
- Europe’s Green Energy Basket Case Is Tim Flannery’s Dream | CACA
- A Token Gesture To The Folly Of Green Madness | CACA
- Driessen : A Climate of Fear, Cash and Correctitude | CACA
- ‘Global warming is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life’ | CACA
- Judith Curry : Senate EPW Hearing on the President’s Climate Action Plan | CACA
- Shock News : UN IPCC Rewrote Temperature History To Suit Their Political Agenda | CACA