DOES The CSIRO Still Stand By Its 2003 Snow Prediction?

Winter Forecast: Coldest On Record? CLIMATISM

“The problem isn’t that Johnny can’t read.
The problem isn’t even that Johnny can’t think.
The problem is that Johnny doesn’t know what thinking is;
he confuses it with feeling.”
– Thomas Sowell


AUSTRALIA’S ‘premier’ science body, the CSIRO, is a prime example of a government funded agency who has been fatally captured by global warming groupthink and climate change hysteria, resulting in a litany of failed predictions and costly fear-mongering, thanks in part to their own contribution to the global set of overheated climate models.

AN example of the CSIRO’s fealty towards the Climate Crisis Industry can be seen in the use of sea level rise figures far in excess of even the IPCC…

In its 2012 report, State of the Climate, the CSIRO says that since 1993 sea levels have risen up to 10mm a year in the north and west. That means that somewhere has had a 19cm-rise in sea level since 1993. Where is this place? The European satellite says that sea levels have been constant for the past eight years.

CSIRO alarmism more dangerous than Co2 | The Australian


CSIRO – The End Of Snow…

A 2003 CSIRO report, part-funded by the ski industry, found that resorts could lose a quarter of their snow within 15 years…

“For the first time, they realised that their attention should be directed to a common enemy,” says Andrew Fairley, head of the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating Council, which advises the State Government and oversees the management of Victoria’s six snow resorts. “And that enemy is climate change.”

Like those who rely on the Great Barrier Reef, the Australian ski industry sees itself as a frontline victim of global warming. A 2003 CSIRO report, part-funded by the ski industry, found that the resorts could lose a quarter of their snow in 15 years, and half by 2050. The worst case was a 96 per cent loss of snow by mid-century.

Icons under threat: The Alps – General – In Depth –


CSIRO – Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions


The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths. At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.  (Page Not Found – hmm)


ALL around the world, warmist institutions and the climate-theory-obsessed compliant mainstream media were once predicting the end of snow…

IN 2000, climate expert Dr David Viner of the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU) assured us that :

Snowfall will become “A very rare and exciting event…
Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David VinerSenior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)


IN 2001, climate’s holy body, the UN IPCC predicted diminished snowfalls as human CO2 increased, predicting that “milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms” due to the activities of mankind personkind…

THEY forecast “warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change…”



2000 : a prediction from Professor Mojib Latif of Germany’s GEOMAR Heimholtz Centre for Ocean Research…

“Winters with strong frosts and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will no longer exist at our latitudes.” – Professor Mojib Latif

2004 : Mark Lynas told us

“Snow has become so rare that when it does fall – often just for a few hours – everything grinds to a halt. In early 2003 a ‘mighty’ five-centimetre snowfall in southeast England caused such severe traffic jams that many motorists had to stay in their cars overnight. Today’s kids are missing out . . . Many of these changes are already underway, but have been accelerating over the last two decades. Termites have already moved into southern England. Garden centres are beginning to stock exotic sub-tropical species, which only a few years ago would have been killed off by winter…” – Mark Lynas

2005 : George Monbiot on climate change and snow

Winter is no longer the great grey longing of my childhood. The freezes this country suffered in 1982 and 1963 are – unless the Gulf Stream stops – unlikely to recur. Our summers will be long and warm. Across most of the upper northern hemisphere, climate change, so far, has been kind to us…

2006 : The Independent‘s somber editorial admonished us that the lack of snow was evidence of a “dangerous seasonal disorder”…

The countryside is looking rather peculiar this winter. It seems we have a number of unexpected guests for Christmas. Dragonflies, bumblebees and red admiral butterflies, which would normally be killed off by the frost, can still be seen in some parts of the country . . . Some might be tempted to welcome this late blossoming of the natural world as a delightful diversion from the bleakness of this time of year. But these fluctuations should be cause for concern because it is overwhelmingly likely that they are a consequence of global warming . . . all this is also evidence that global warming is occurring at a faster rate than many imagined…

2007 : BBC “One Planet Special”…

It Seems the Winters of Our Youth are Unlikely to Return” presenter Richard Hollingham … speaks to climate scientists to get their views. Their conclusion? In the words of the BBC, they all give “predictions of warmer winters, for UK & the Northern Hemisphere”.

2007 : Western Mail (Wales Online) … article, entititled “Snowless Winters Forecast for Wales as World Warms Up” quotes one of the global warming movement’s key figures, Sir John Houghton, former head of the IPCC and former head of the UK Met Office…

Former head of the Met Office Sir John Houghton, who is one of the UK’s leading authorities on climate change, said all the indicators suggest snowy winters will become increasingly rare He said, “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”

2008 : another prediction

A study of snowfall spanning 60 years has indicated that the Alps’s entire winter sports industry could grind to a halt through lack of snow…. In some years the amount that fell was 60 per cent lower than was typical in the early 1980s, said Christoph Marty, from the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research in Davos, who analysed the records. ”I don’t believe we will see the kind of snow conditions we have experienced in past decades,” he said.

2014 : the global warming theory-obsessed New York Times touted “The End of Snow?”…

The truth is, it is too late for all of that. Greening the ski industry is commendable, but it isn’t nearly enough. Nothing besides a national policy shift on how we create and consume energy will keep our mountains white in the winter — and slow global warming to a safe level. screenhunter_314-feb-07-11-00

This is no longer a scientific debate. It is scientific fact. The greatest fear of most climate scientists is continued complacency that leads to a series of natural climatic feedbacks…”

(Climatism bolds)

The End of Snow? – The New York Times

2017 : The Age’s resident global warming catastrophist Peter Hannam signalled the end of snow…

Australia’s ski resorts face the prospect of a long downhill run as a warming climate reduces snow depth, cover and duration. The industry’s ability to create artificial snow will also be challenged, scientists say.

Snowy retreat: Climate change puts Australia’s ski industry on a downhill slope | The AGE

ALARMIST Hannam cites a snow depth graph of data from Spencer’s Creek, at 1830 m elevation, near Charlotte Pass, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo…

HANNAM’S graph is mysteriously cut-off mid 2004. The article was written in August 2017 and Spencer’s Creek data runs runs from 1954 through to 2017.

PERHAPS it is because Australia snow extent has been stable since the early 1980’s and increasing over the past decade? – Inconvenient data that wrecks Hannam’s reduced snowfall narrative. Dishonest, fake news propaganda that would make Pravda blush.

COMPLETE Spencer Creek Record…

SNOWY HYDRO Australian Snow Depth Records…


WE know from real-world evidence and snow-boots-on-the-ground that snow extent has been trending up, over the past decade. In particular last season with record-breaking snowfalls seen across the Australian Alps…

PERISHER – “Most Snow In 17 Years”


HEAVY snowfalls have become the trend, not the exception, over the past decade…

2014 : “Best Snowfalls In A Decade”…

2015 : “Bumper Season!”

2016 : Record Snow In Unexpected Places!

2017 : The Blizzard Of Oz 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0” – More Than 130cm of Snow In A Weekend – Best in 17 years!

2017 : “Blizzard of Oz 2.0”

Emergency services warn of avalanches in Victoria’s alpine region

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at , August 8, 8.45.01 AM.png

Click to Play…

EMERGENCY services have issued an avalanche warning for Victoria’s alpine region as tourists have been urged to avoid skiing, snowboarding, or hiking in remote areas.

Warmer weather and strong wind is expected to increase the risk of avalanches at Mt Bogong, mt feathertop, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Falls Creek today.

Victorian alpine region: avalanche warning issued for skiers, snowboarders | Herald Sun



2018 : “Stormin’ Norman snowfalls brings big white blizzards”…

20018 : “The BIG Chill” – Snow down to 700m and temps 7C below average…

2018 : “Icy winter blast brings bumper snowfall”




DOES the CSIRO still stand by its 2003 prediction? Or is their alarmist report simply more global warming climate change fear-mongering based on overheated UN IPCC and CSIRO climate computer models that do not accord with observed reality?

A 2003 CSIRO report, part-funded by the ski industry, found that the resorts could lose a quarter of their snow in 15 years, and half by 2050.



WINTER snow extent is increasing globally as CO2 emissions rise…

NB// 2018 data is incomplete. The above charts might need a new Y-axis after the record-breaking NH snow season.


NOW, of course, climate scientists are trying to dig themselves out of snow that’s kept falling…

Looking back at 65 years’ worth of statistics, Environment Canada’s senior climatologist David Phillips noted that since 1948, winter temperatures in the prairie regions have increased by an average of four degrees Celsius… Ironically, warmer weather can mean greater snowfall. “As we warm up, we may see more moisture, we may see more moist air masses, and therefore we could very well see more snow rather than less snow, because the air masses are going to be more moist and so therefore you’re going to be able to wring out more snow than you would be if it was dry air,” Phillips said.


ALARMISTS will tell you that more snow (precipitation) is expected in a warming world. This is largely true, however this is not what the CSIRO assured us in their 2003 report!

LISTEN to what the ‘experts’ promised you back then. Because, if they got it wrong then, how can you trust what they are foretelling today or tomorrow? The answer is you cannot, because they have no idea what long-range conditions Mother Nature is going to serve up in such a “chaotic” and complex system as our climate.

THE holiest of alarmist climate bodies, the UN IPCC, even attested to the chaotic nature of the climate in a statement from their 2001 TAR report. A statement disappeared from subsequent IPCC reports and carefully buried by the sycophant, climate-obsessed mainstream media…


Working Group I: The Scientific Basis

Executive Summary

“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

UN IPCC : “Long-Term Prediction of Future Climate States Is Not Possible.” | Climatism



ALL this snow over the past decade corresponds well with “The Pause” in global atmospheric temps since the start of the Century, and including…


ACCORDING to NASA data, the recent 0.56°C plunge in global temperatures, following the 2015/16 super El Nino, is the greatest two-year cooling event in a century. “You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era.”


THE climate is changing, as it always has done and will do, though not in the direction that government funded bodies like the CSIRO keep telling you!

IT might be high-time for a global-warming-theory check, before we spend anymore unnecessary and misguided taxpayer $TRILLIONS on fake fixes to a ruinously fake scare.


SNOW related :

UN IPCC and CSIRO related :

“Hottest Year Evahhh” and “The Pause” related :

Climate Science related :

Climatism Hot Links :

Origins Of The Global Warming Scam :


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7 Comments on “DOES The CSIRO Still Stand By Its 2003 Snow Prediction?”

  1. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    A very good look at some very bad predictions made in the past few years.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Tim Barclay says:

    The author (Sprey) asks if the CSIRO would stand by their report from 2003 that found resorts could lose a quarter of their snow in 15 years? On the face of it, I see no reason why they would not – in 2003 it was obviously a possibility (“could”). But that’s just semantics and not what he means. So what did the report actually say?

    “The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains). The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths. At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)… We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.”

    Spry also gives a bunch of news articles reiterating this same conclusion from various places around the world – snow fall will reduce as the planet warms. So what does the data collected since these predictions were made show?

    Spry shows a graph of snow-depth days (sdd) from Spencer’s Creek which he misrepresents as average snow depth and claims has been cut off mid-2004. This is not so – the version he shows is cut off in 2009 (just count the bars on the x axis to check) but the entire graph to 2013 is present in the original report he is criticising. It has evidently been cut off by someone – I’m not saying it was Spry that did that, but …

    Next Spry claims snow extent has been stable since the 1980s and increased 2009-2018. The graph he has already criticised shows a reduction in the trend line from about 16000 sdd in 1954 to 14000 in 1981 and 12500 sdd in 2013. That’s clearly a reduction of [(16000-12500)/16000] x 100 = 21.875%. But the amount of snow in a season depends on the depth of falls, how wide spread falls are, and how long they last. Snow depth days are a measurement of the depth of snow multiplied by number of days at that depth, so they are a truer representation of volume of snow than depth alone is. But Spry now goes on to show us another graph of maximum snow depth and claims it is the complete record, when all it displays is merely the biggest fall each year – bit of an obvious problem there. But even that’s not all, because this same graph also shows the trend for the maximum snow depth is negative 0.66 cm/yr, resulting in a drop from 220cm in 1954 to 200cm in 1981 and 180cm in 2013 – a reduction of [(220-180)/220] x 100 = 18.181%. It would thus appear Spry is unable to differentiate between a steady decline and stability.

    Finally then, Spry goes on to gives us some graphs of the northern hemisphere snow falls in winter, showing a trend line from 45.15 million sq km in 1967 to 46.1 msk in 2018 – an increase of [46.1 – 45.15/45.15] x 100 = 2.104%. Obviously, that’s a fair bit less than the % loss seen here in Australia, but most concerning is the fact all Spry is looking at is winter snow. This obviously can’t account for early or late falls or places covered in snow for most of the year, so we need some better data. Fortunately, the same Rutgers University source he uses has covered this and shows a trend line reduction from 26.66 msk in 1967 to 23.33 msk in 2014 – a decrease of [(26.66 – 23.33) / 26.66] x 100 = 12.490%.

    So in summary – Sprey has used doctored graphs, misleading comparisons and a complete lack of simple mathematics. An examination of his own references shows he has misrepresented their findings – the data actually shows reductions in snow cover around the world of over 10%, and in Australia perhaps twice that. As such, I see absolutely no reason the CSIRO would not stand by their 2003 report predicting reductions of between 10-25% by 2018.


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