Claim: Humans behind record Australian heat, research shows

We need to get some broad based support,
to capture the public’s imagination…
So we have to offer up scary scenarios,
make simplified, dramatic statements
and make little mention of any doubts…
Each of us has to decide what the right balance
is between being effective and being honest.

Prof. Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
lead author of many IPCC reports

The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

•••

Screen Shot 2013-09-05 at , September 5, 10.15.33 PM

It’s official, the past 12 months have been the hottest in Australia for more than a hundred years.

Temperatures averaged across Australia between September 2012 and August 2013 were hotter than any year since good records began in 1910. The previous record was held by the 12-month period from February 2005 to January 2006.

The new record follows a suite of broken records following last year’s “angry summer”, including the hottest summer since records began.

Humans behind record Australian heat, research shows – The Sydney Morning Herald 3/9/2013

•••

Dr Sophie Lewis is from the University of Melbourne and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science. David Karoly is a Professor of Atmospheric Science in the School of Earth Sciences and the ARC at the University of Melbourne and is a member of the Science Advisory Panel to the Australian Government’s Climate Commission.

The Climate Commission was setup by the Australian Labor Government in 2011 as an ‘independent’ body communicating on climate change. Rather than behaving independently, it has acted as a literal climate propaganda unit to promote the Governments sweeping climate reform agenda, with the controversial carbon (dioxide) tax as it’s centrepiece.

In the Sydney Morning Herald article, Karoly and Lewis claim “It’s official, the past 12 months have been the hottest in Australia for more than a hundred years.” and “The link between global warming and human causes has been firmly established over the last two decades.”

To push the man-made global warming narrative, Karoly and Lewis consistently cherry-pick ‘heat records’ from Australia’s 21st century climate. The Climate Commission’s alarmist report, “The Angry Summer” was another case in point.

What’s immediately telling in Karoly, Lewis and the Climate Commission’s work is the lack of any reference to satellite temperature data, which would be pertinent to assessing Australia’s short and long-term climatic trends.

See for yourself

Use the ‘find’ function in your browser (ctrl F) and see if you can find a reference to “satellite” or “UAH” temperature in Karoly and Lewis’ pal-reviewed study or the Climate Commission’s report:

Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 40, 3705 – 3709, doi:10.1002/grl.50673, 2013

Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013

Sophie C. Lewis and David J. Karoly
Received 15 May 2013; revised 13 June 2013; accepted 16 June 2013; published 23 July 2013

Screen Shot 2013-09-05 at , September 5, 11.49.24 PM

PDF: Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013

If the satellites showed that the last Australian summer was hot, would Lewis and Karoly have left them off the paper?

Climate Commission Report – “The Angry Summer

The Angry Summer

6883-DCCEE-Summer-Heat-Infographs_SUMMARY_v6_1MARCH-2

PDF: Climate Commission Report – The Angry Summer 

•••

There is a perfectly good reason why Karoly, Lewis and the Climate Commission do not include satellite data in any of their reporting ~ because the data does not fit their alarmist ‘extreme’ heat narrative. In fact the satellite data shows a trend in the opposite direction.

The latest UAH satellite temperature dataset shows Australia’s near surface temperature  (0-5km) has been cooling at -0.927°C per decade over the last 5 years and cooling at -0.291°C per decade over the last 10 years.

uah-last-5-years-aust

uah-last-10-years-aust

Source: The National Space Science & Technology Centre UAH dataset 

UAH satellite data below from John Christy, University of Alabama at Huntsville shows no rise in land or ocean temperature for the Southern Hemisphere region and no rise in Australia’s mean temperature since the beginning of the century:

Des-chart-southern-three LAND

The Climate Commissions reported “Angry Summer” was in fact not-so-angry or unusual at all. UAH satellite data shows in fact the 2012/13 mean summer temperature was in fact cooler than when satellite measurements began in 1979:

australia-uah-summers

Source: The National Space Science & Technology Centre UAH dataset 

This is what the RSS and the MSU satellite records for the lower troposphere have to say about Australia:

satellite-temperatures-for-australian-summers-djf

Source: KNMI Climate Expolorer

Both satellite datasets agree that there was nothing at all unusual about the 2012 summer. Did Karoly and the Climate Commission researches notice this fact? Or perhaps they just thought it wasn’t important for their report?

•••

Jo Nova makes a sound assessment of the state of climate science over at the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science :

The peer reviewed, comprehensive, Lewis and Karoly paper does not contain the words “satellite”,  or “UAH”. Lewis and Karoly apparently do not know about the UAH satellite program yet, otherwise they surely would have emailed John Christy or Roy Spencer (as we did) to ask for the data. We can only hope that they get enough government support, more funding, and better education in future so that they may discover what unpaid volunteers figured out on the Internet for free 3 months ago. Frankly it is shameful that the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science is not connected to the world wide web and has not trained staff to use “google”.

•••

Real Scientific Questions For David Karoly, Sophie Lewis & The Climate Commission:

  • If humans are making a substantial addition to a ‘warming’ climate, then why has the temperature of the globe not changed in 15-17 years despite a massive increase in human CO² emissions over the same period?
  • Why has Australia’s mean summer surface temperature not changed since 1979?
  • Why has Australia’s mean surface temperature been falling since 2007 and globally since 1998, despite record human greenhouse gas emissions output? Nature Study Confirms Global Warming Stopped 15 Years Ago
  • How do the researchers reconcile human induced climate change (warming) based on Australian ‘weather’ over a few months of a year? Isn’t global warming a global ‘climate’ (30-year-cycle) issue?

These are mere basic scientific questions the Climate Commission should be using taxpayer funds to answer, not cherry-picking often UHI (Urban Heat Island) affected temp station data and suspect Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) temperature calculations to promote a Government climate agenda and massage an ideological climate bent.

•••

Mammalogist Tim Flannery is the head of Australia’s Climate Commission. For his $180,000, three day, part-time working week, he gets to make decisions that affect billions of dollars of Australian taxpayer’s hard-earned money:

UPDATE

Related:

H/t to Sunshine Hours


One Comment on “Claim: Humans behind record Australian heat, research shows”

  1. […] Claim: Humans behind record Australian heat, research shows (climatism.wordpress.com) […]


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