Freeman Dyson speaks out about climate science, and fudge

Watts Up With That?

Climatologists Are No Einsteins, Says His Successor

by Paul Mulshine, The Star Ledger via the GWPF

Freeman Dyson is a physicist who has been teaching at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton since Albert Einstein was there. When Einstein died in 1955, there was an opening for the title of “most brilliant physicist on the planet.” Dyson has filled it.

So when the global-warming movement came along, a lot of people wondered why he didn’t come along with it. The reason he’s a skeptic is simple, the 89-year-old Dyson said when I phoned him.

“I think any good scientist ought to be a skeptic,” Dyson said.

Then in the late 1970s, he got involved with early research on climate change at the Institute for Energy Analysis in Oak Ridge, Tenn.

That research, which involved scientists from many disciplines, was based on experimentation. The scientists studied such questions as how atmospheric carbon…

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Australia Takes The Lead In Combating The Climate Mafia

Real Science

Mr Abbott says he will immediately instruct the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet to prepare legislation to repeal the carbon tax.

He also says incoming treasurer Joe Hockey will instruct the board of the Clean Energy Corporation to cease operations.

It is also expected that the Climate Change Authority and the Climate Commission will be abolished.

Tony Abbott to have carbon tax repeal legislation drawn up immediately after being sworn in – Yahoo!7

Hopefully Australia’s success will give Americans the courage to stand up to the criminals running the US.

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Australia’s record hottest 12 month period? Junk science say the Satellites

This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake
.”
– Dr Tim Flannery,
Climate Council

The only way to get our society to truly change is to
frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe
.”
– emeritus professor Daniel Botkin

The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

 •••

via JoanneNova.com

Australia’s record hottest 12 month period? Junk science say the Satellites

Another round of government-funded PR went out a couple of weeks ago, across the obedient Pravda-media. It told us about another meaningless “record” that was probably not a record, and wouldn’t tell us whether man-made warming was the cause, even if it was. Not a single journalist had the wherewithal, nous or intellectual honesty to search the Internet looking for a different point of view. Though, in their defense, how could they have guessed that Prof David Karoly wouldn’t know about the UAH satellite program to measure temperatures? (It has only been running since 1979.)

This below, are the 12 month averages over Australia by satellite. Graphed at Kens Kingdom by Ken Stewart, with no doctorate in climatology and no government funds.

In the troposphere over Australia it was a hot year but not a record.

For the third time this year we’ve been hit with claims of a “hottest ever” record that doesn’t tell us anything about the climate, but does reveal a lot about the sick state of government funded science, corrupted, decrepit, and so far from being scientific it might as well be run by Greenpeace.  If the government stopped funding climate science entirely, climate research might speed up.

The “hottest” headlines are science-marketing

  1. Again, for the third time, the more accurate, more comprehensive satellites show it was a hot year, but was probably not a record. Satellite data shows we didn’t have a hot angry summer. Man-made emissions were probably not to blame for the hot angry summer we didn’t have. And now apparently we also haven’t quite had the “hottest” 12 month period since 1910 either, but the hottest since 2010. (But what’s a hundred years between friends?)
  2. Again, for the third time, the “records” depend on mystery methods that can’t be replicated. This time the records appear to be based on ACORN data, supposedly the highest quality we have. This is the dataset we were told had neutral adjustments  — an equal number of positive and negative changes. But inexplicably (yet again) somehow those neutral changes increase the trend. (Define neutral?) Who would have guessed that thermometers in the 1920s and 30s were overestimating temperatures and nobody noticed for decades after the fact? (Lucky that got fixed, eh!) Handily for record-makers, the BOM have more than one dataset — if it’s not a record in one, it might be in the other? The angry summer records depended on AWAP data that are not published in full either, and subject to different mystery-black-boxadjustments. Back in 1910 that set has a mere 16 temperature stations on a continent of 7 million square kilometers. (No there can’t possibly be anything to hide in those undisclosed methods can there?)
  3. Again, for the millionth time, even if it is the hottest for a century, it doesn’t mean anything about the cause. To state the bleeding obvious: all causes of warming cause warming. The world started warming up in the 1700′s, long before CO2, the trend was the same in the 1870s as it was in the 1980s. None of that fits the man-made- emissions graph of CO2. Ergo, CO2 didn’t have much effect, if any. The climate models can’t tell us what caused the warming to start 2-300 years ago, they don’t work on 20 year, 2000 year or 200,000 year scales. They don’t work on local, regional or global scales. They don’t work on vertical atmospheric scales. They don’t work.

The need for constant “record” headlines (despite the conflicting data) is the mark of an effective lobby group, but it isn’t the mark of careful impartial scientist.

The satellite data shows it was not a record

There are thousands of measurements coming in from satellites that criss cross the nation day and night covering every corner of the land. This data came out within a few days of the propaganda pieces published all over the country, but the “scientists” at The University of Melbourne couldn’t wait, indeed, they were in such a rush you’d think there was an election on, and dare I say, that getting out an inaccurate message before the vote, was more important than waiting a few days to get the science right?

The satellite measured TLT (meaning Tropospheric Lower Temperature) more accurately shows what the bulk atmosphere above the Australian land-mass is doing – which is the quantity that is most directly related to greenhouse gas impacts. Indeed the models tell us that the rate of warming should be larger in the mid to upper troposphere than at the surface. In other words, if CO2 caused the warming, it would turn up in these satellite records before we saw it in the surface charts.

Some of the propaganda

The Conversation includes this gem of reasoning from David Karoly:

“However, attributing a single event or a record to human activities isn’t easy. But last year Hurricane Sandy put the spotlight on climate change and extreme weather.”

In other words, long trends don’t matter, ignore decadal averages, the current drought in hurricanes, forget global compilations of energy that show that storms are not getting worse, throw all your history out the window. If there is ever a bad storm anywhere in the world, it is our fault. Straight from the playbook of the witchdoctors of neolithic times. Send Karoly some conch shells.

Donate to connect-a-scientist to the World Wide Web

I ask again, as I did in June, if the satellites showed that the last Australian year was a record hot temperature, would Sophie Lewis and David Karoly have left that data off the paper, and entirely out of their calculations, and removed all mention of them from their press releases? (Climatism Emboldened)

As I said then:

The peer reviewed, comprehensive, [hottest ever] Lewis and Karoly paper does not contain the words “satellite”,  or “UAH”. Lewis and Karoly apparently do not know about the UAH satellite program yet, otherwise they surely would have emailed John Christy or Roy Spencer (as we did) to ask for the data. We can only hope that they get enough government support, more funding, and better education in future so that they may discover what unpaid volunteers figured out on the Internet for free 3 months ago. Frankly it is shameful that the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science is not connected to the world wide web and has not trained staff to use “google”.

Since the Uni of Melbourne don’t seem to have web access, perhaps someone can do them a favor and send them this in snail-mail so they can finally find out about the University of Huntsville Alabama? I’m sure John Christy would be happy to post them a printout of the UAH Australian data. I can relay messages if Prof Karoly would like.

Luckily my email goes all the way to America.

——————————————————

Related posts:

Thanks to Ken, Ed, Chris, and all the independent BOM audit team and to John Christy for the data.

•••

UPDATE

This guy rips the Bureau Of Meteorology “Hottest Ever Year”  false claims to shreds:

Screen Shot 2014-01-08 at , January 8, 8.52.58 pm

Bureau overheat figures by 4 degrees! (2013 was not Australia’s hottest year on record)

January 6th, 2014 at 04:13pm

The Bureau Of Meteorology released a statement on Friday which claimed that 2013 was Australia’s hottest year on record, with an average temperature of 23 degrees which, according to them, is 1.2 degrees above the long-term average. The numbers just didn’t quite seem right to me as 23 degrees seems like a an average maximum temperature, simply because of the massive areas of the country which struggle to reach 23 degrees during the day for much of the year, and that overnight lows don’t spend much time hovering as high as 23 degrees in much of the country for much of the year. Continue Reading »

•••

Australia Climate Related:

Climatism Links:


Warming faith faces collapse. But here comes Suzuki, still prattling of doom

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

The only way to get our society to truly change is to
frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe
.”
– emeritus professor Daniel Botkin

If we don’t overthrow capitalism, we don’t have a chance of
saving the world ecologically. I think it is possible to have
an ecologically sound society under socialism.
I don’t think it is possible under capitalism
” 
– Judi Bari,
principal organiser of Earth First

Global Sustainability requires the deliberate quest of poverty,
reduced resource consumption and set levels of mortality control
.”
– Professor Maurice King

•••

via Herald Sun | Andrew Bolt

Wednesday 18, Sept 2013

Warming faith faces collapse. But here comes Suzuki, still prattling of doom

Roy Spencer, U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on NASA’s Aqua satellite, says the global warming faith is on the brink of collapse as temperatures fail to rise:

…now, with the IPCC unable to convincingly explain the recent stall in warming (some say a change to weak cooling), the fact that they are forced to actually recognize reality and make changes in their report — possibly reducing the lower bound for future warming, thus reducing the range of climate sensitivity — is quite momentous.

It might well be that so widespread is the public knowledge of the hiatus in warming, recovering Arctic sea ice (at least temporarily), continuing expansion of Antarctic sea ice, failed predictions of previous IPCC reports, etc., are forcing them to do something to save face…

For the last 10-20 years or more, a few of us have been saying that the IPCC has been ignoring the elephant in the room…that the real climate system is simply not as sensitive to CO2 emissions as they claim…

This elephant has had to be ignored at all costs. What, the globe isn’t warming from manmade CO2 as fast as we predicted? Then it must be manmade aerosols cooling things off. Or the warming is causing the deep ocean to heat up by hundredths or thousandths of a degree. Any reason except reduced climate sensitivity, because low climate sensitivity might mean we really don’t have to worry about global warming after all…

My main point is that nothing stands in the way of a popular theory (e.g. global warming) better than failed forecasts. We are now at the point in the age of global warming hysteria where the IPCC global warming theory has crashed into the hard reality of observations.

Professor Ross McKitrick, co-author of Taken By Storm: The Troubled Science, Policy and Politics of Global Warming:

Everything you need to know about the dilemma the IPCC faces is summed up in one remarkable graph.

image

The figure nearby is from the draft version that underwent expert review last winter. It compares climate model simulations of the global average temperature to observations over the post-1990 interval. During this time atmospheric carbon dioxide rose by 12%, from 355 parts per million (ppm) to 396 ppm. The IPCC graph shows that climate models predicted temperatures should have responded by rising somewhere between about 0.2 and 0.9 degrees C over the same period. But the actual temperature change was only about 0.1 degrees, and was within the margin of error around zero. In other words, models significantly over-predicted the warming effect of CO2 emissions for the past 22 years.

Chapter 9 of the IPCC draft also shows that overestimation of warming was observed on even longer time scales in data collected by weather satellites and weather balloons over the tropics… Based on all climate models used by the IPCC, this region of the atmosphere (specifically the tropical mid-troposphere) should exhibit the most rapid greenhouse warming anywhere. Yet most data sets show virtually no temperature change for over 30 years…

To those of us who have been following the climate debate for decades, the next few years will be electrifying. There is a high probability we will witness the crackup of one of the most influential scientific paradigms of the 20th century, and the implications for policy and global politics could be staggering.

Former warmist Professor Dr Fritz Vahrenholt, former Deputy Environmental Minister for Hamburg, agrees the warming faith is collapsing as the world fails to warm:

It’s now obvious that the IPCC models are not correctly reflecting the development of atmospheric temperatures. What‘s false? Reality or the models? The hackneyed explanation of a deep sea warming below 700 meters hasn’t been substantiated up to now. How does atmospheric warming from a climate gas jump 700 meters deep into the ocean? … The likelihood is that there is no “missing heat”. Slight changes in cloud cover could easily account for a similar effect. That would mean the end of the alarmist CO2 theory…

Extreme weather is the only card they have left to play. We see that Arctic sea ice extent is the highest since 2007. At the South Pole sea ice is at the highest extent in a very long time, hurricanes have not become more frequent, the same is true with tornadoes, sea level is rising at 2-3 mm per year and there’s been no change in the rate, and global temperature has been stagnant for 15 years… CO2 does have a warming effect on the planet. However, this effect has been greatly exaggerated. The climate impact of CO2 is less than the half of what the climate alarmists claim. That’s why in our book, The Neglected Sun, we are saying there is not going to be any climate catastrophe.

The world simply hasn’t warmed as the warmists claimed. But here comes professional alarmist David Suzuki, the eco-extremist on his umpteeth visit to spread alarm about the warming that actually paused 15 years ago:

Your new prime minister Tony Abbott is just another who finds it easier and more politically rewarding to focus on the next election cycle rather than the mountain of evidence that continues to grow and show we are trashing the biosphere and must reduce carbon emissions….

In British Columbia, where I live, a warming climate has allowed insects the size of grains of rice to destroy $65 billion worth of pine trees in just a bit over a decade….  melting polar ice cap …  the devastation wrought by hurricanes Katrina and Sandy … Half the coral on the Great Barrier Reef has disappeared …  increasing frequency of cyclones … climate change is going to devastate Australia … ditching the carbon tax is not only crazy, it is absolutely suicidal.

Suzuki’s alarmism is reckless and risible, not just because Suzuki blames a few environmental changes on a warming that’s actually paused for 15 years. Suzuki also gets basic claims wrong:

… [the Great Barrier Reef] could halve again in the next decade with degradation of the environment and the increasing frequency of cyclones.

What “increasing frequency of cyclones”?

image

Will The Age, which so gladly published Suzuki’s trash, correct the record, or does being a warming alarmist give you a licence to mislead?

—————————————————————————————————-

Climatism:

Suzuki’s Other Reckless Alarmist Claims

Suzuki Claim: PINE BEETLE HYSTERIA

In 1924 low CO² Pine Beetles Destroyed 1.5 Billion Feet Of Timber In Oregon And California

pine beetle

http://trove.nla.gov.au

THE GIANT KILLER.

AMERICAN PINE BEETLE.      

Science and brawn are to-day work-ing together in systematic haste in the heart of the yellow-pine forests ofSouthern Oregon and Northern California to save ten billion feet of merchantable timber from the relentless ravages of the Western pine beetle,writes the New York “Outlook.” During the last ten years this tiny beetle  (Dendroctonus brevicomis) has destroyed a total of 1,500,000,000 feet of  timber in unquestionably the finest stand of yellow pine on the Pacific coast of the United States.

•••

Suzuki Claim: MELTING POLAR ICE-CAP HYSTERIA

Arctic Sea Ice:

September 2013: “Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year”

Screen Shot 2013-09-09 at , September 9, 5.17.14 AM

Global cooling: Arctic ice caps grows by 60% against global warming predictions | Mail Online 7 Sep, 2013

Antarctica:

via Real Science

The Last And Ugliest Part Of The Scam

Posted on September 8, 2013 by 

The Arctic sea ice scam is in its death throes, and now the climate criminals are focused on the Antarctic is going to melt and collapse and drown us all in 90 years scam.

Only problem is, Antarctica is getting colder and sea ice is increasing

111 screenhunter_360-sep-08-09-34

vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.5.txt

222 screenhunter_361-sep-08-09-42

arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008

•••

Suzuki Claim: HURRICANE HYSTERIA

As of today, it has been 2,857 days or 7.9 years since the US has been hit by a Cat 3 or greater hurricane. The last such hurricane was Wilma on October 24th, 2005. Hurricanes are actually getting not worse, but fewer. Grover Cleveland, who was president between 1885 and 1889, had 27 major hurricanes during his presidency. Only 3 major hurricanes have made landfall during Obama’s tenure thus far.

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. summarises:

HURRICANE FREQUENCY

The graph above provides an update to data on the remarkable ongoing US “intense hurricane drought.” When the Atlantic hurricane season starts next June 1, it will have been 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900. 

Via Real Science

Obama : Lowest Hurricane Frequency Of Any President

Posted on September 17, 2013 by 

Obama’s approval ratings are at historic lows, as well as his hurricanes.

Since Obama took office, the US has averaged 0.6 hurricane landfalls per year. This is the fewest hurricanes of any president since at least 1850. By contrast, Grover Cleveland’s presidency averaged more than five times as many hurricanes per year as Obama’s.

Obama Hurricanes

•••

Suzuki Claim: TROPICAL STORM SANDY HYSTERIA

Hurricane Sandy was downgraded to a tropical storm when it made landfall. The resulting 3 meter storm surge, corresponded with a full moon, causing a King tide which hit at high tide.

The New York Hurricane of 1821 hit at low tide with it’s impacts much more extensive:

Via Real Science

1821 New York Hurricane Hit At Low Tide

8/26/11

Hurricane Flashback: The Great New York Storm of 1821

September 3 marks the 190th anniversary of the Hurricane of 1821, which saw flooding and destruction in the growing metropolis. In less than an hour a thirteen-foot storm surge deluged the city, swallowing everything below Canal Street. The Battery was particularly devastated, docks were destroyed, and ships were swept onto streets. Further uptown, a bridge that connected Harlem to Ward’s Island was washed away and somewhere in Chinatown, the East River likely met the Hudson. “New Yorkers were lucky,” writes Bruce Parker in The Power of the Sea: Tsunamis, Storm Surges, Rogue Waves, and Our Quest to Predict Disasters. “The hurricane hit at low tide.

Hurricane Flashback: The Great New York Storm of 1821 — Daily Intelligencer

•••

Suzuki Claim: AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE FREQUENCY INCREASING HYSTERIA

PEER-REVIEW ScienceDirect.com – Reconstructing tropical cyclone frequency using hydrogen isotope ratios of sedimentary n-alkanes in northern Queensland, Australia

Findings:

“This suggests that on average tropical cyclone frequency did not change during the past 200 years.”

BOM Tropical Cyclone Trends:

tc-graph-1969-2012

•••

Suzuki Claim: GREAT BARRIER REEF HYSTERIA

The major problems facing the Great Barrier Reef are to do with real pollution and physical factors; fertilisers and chemical pollution, damage from cyclone Yasi, development of coal terminals and from the crown of thorns starfish. Conditions far removed from perceived damage caused by increased Carbon Dioxide concentrations.

Great Barrier Reef report card shows World Heritage site’s health has dropped to ‘poor’ | The Courier-Mail

See also: Claim: Ocean Acidification Is Climate Change’s ‘Equally Evil Twin’ | CACA

•••

Suzuki Claim: AUS TEMPERATURE HYSTERIA

See: Australia’s record hottest 12 month period? Junk science say the Satellites | CACA

•••

Related Articles:

Climatism Links:

Australia Climate Related: