Hurricane Flashback: The Great New York Storm of 1821
September 3 marks the 190th anniversary of the Hurricane of 1821, which saw flooding and destruction in the growing metropolis. In less than an hour a thirteen-foot storm surge deluged the city, swallowing everything below Canal Street. The Battery was particularly devastated, docks were destroyed, and ships were swept onto streets. Further uptown, a bridge that connected Harlem to Ward’s Island was washed away and somewhere in Chinatown, the East River likely met the Hudson. “New Yorkers were lucky,” writes Bruce Parker in The Power of the Sea: Tsunamis, Storm Surges, Rogue Waves, and Our Quest to Predict Disasters. “The hurricane hit at low tide.“
By the time Hurricane Sandy veered toward the Northeast coast of the United States last October 29, it had mauled several countries in the Caribbean and left dozens dead. Faced with the largest storm ever spawned over the Atlantic, New York and other cities ordered mandatory evacuations of low-lying areas. Not everyone complied. Those who chose to ride out Sandy got a preview of the future, in which a warmer world will lead to inexorably rising seas.
The largest Atlantic storm ever? Where do they find people to write garbage like that? How big was the 1780 Great Atlantic hurricane which killed 23,000 people? Hurricane Andrew had wind speeds 300% of Sandy.
Sandy’s flooding was a storm surge, not sea level rise. Where do they find people to write garbage like that?
Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years. Most of that time the Earth has been…
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“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment
“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that’s a real worry for the people in the bush.” –Tim Flannery, AU Climate Commissar
“It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace
The Climate Commission has been concerned about misleading information in the media in recent weeks stating that the Earth is not warming. The Climate Commission has today released a briefing paper that corrects the confusion and confirms that the Earth continues to warm at an alarming rate.
“As scientists have been saying for many years, the Earth is warming rapidly. Human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels, have triggered this warming. If we fail to address it, there will be even more serious implications for humanity than the impacts we are seeing already.”
In recent weeks Nature journal has published two papers which support sceptics claim that global warming stopped 15-17 years ago. The latest peer-reviewed research brutally contradicts the Australian Climate Commission’s wildly alarmist and ideological assertion that the Earth is heating at an alarming rate:
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling – Nature Journal 28/8/2013
Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years – Nature Climate Change 28/8/2013
Satellite temperature records on six different data sets show that there has been no atmospheric global warming since 1998 or any statistically-significant warming for between 18 and 23 years. A distinct lack of any warming evident, despite a dramatic rise in industrial greenhouse gas emissions over the same period:
More Peer-Reviewed studies that confirm the lack of any recent global warming:
- Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008
- Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade
- Warmist scientists talk about no Global Warming
The Climate Commission’s core claims:
The briefing paper makes the following core points:
- The Earth continues to warm strongly. Scientists assess this based on long term observations of the heat content of the ocean, the air temperature (an indicator of the heat content of the atmosphere), and the amount of heat absorbed by the land, glaciers, ice sheets, and sea ice.
- Understanding changes in climate requires data over long time periods, at least 30 years and preferably much longer.
- The best measure of global warming is ocean heat content as it absorbs nearly 90% of additional heat trapped by greenhouse gases. Global ocean heat content has increased substantially over the last 40 years, and the strongly upward trend has continued through the most recent decade up to the present.
- Singling out short term trends in air temperature to imply that global warming is not occurring is incorrect and misleading.
Scientific indicators that contradict the ACC’s claims:
“The Oceans Ate My Global Warming” – With no rise in atmospheric temps over the past 15-17 years, the latest bluff in climate alarmism is that the ‘missing heat’ is hiding at the bottom of the oceans. However since 2003, 3000+ ARGO satellite buoys which descend to depths of 2,000 metres, continually recording ocean temperatures, have not detected a rise in ocean temps either:
The Arctic has witnessed a dramatic bounce back from 2012 lows, dumbfounding scientists and Arctic alarmists alike. 2013 Arctic ice extent has gained 72% from 2012:
Arctic Ice Almost As Extensive As It Was 42 Years Ago – Real Science
Antarctic ice is at an all-time record high:
Antarctic Meltdown Producing Record Amounts Of Ice – Real Science
ACC Claim: Singling out short term trends in air temperature to imply that global warming is not occurring is incorrect and misleading.
Atmospheric surface temps have been used and marketed since the end of the last global cooling phase from 1945-1976 and explicitly through the 1990′s as the definitive measure of human-induced (anthropogenic) global warming.
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), former directer James Hansen, and the British Hadley Centre for Climate Change, have consistently promoted the use of surface temperature as a metric for global warming. The highly publicised, monthly global surface temperature has become an icon of AGW alarmist projections made by the IPCC.
The ACC contests that short-term trends are misleading, however the entire anthropogenic global warming scare was predicated on only 22 years of atmospheric warming from 1976-1998. Back then air temp data was in fashion, now that air temps have not risen over the past 15-17 years, global warming alarmists deny and reject them and now claim the ‘missing heat’ is hiding in the oceans!
For a detailed summary of the Climate Commission’s absurd propagandist claims about Earth continuing to heat at an alarming rate, please read this superb summary by John Happs out of Quadrant Online:
Warmism’s bellowing dinosaurs
by John Happs
May 2, 2013
In its publication, “The Angry Summer” the Australian Climate Commission (ACC) provides the dramatic headline:
“Earth continues to warm strongly despite sceptics claims.” (1)
In a forlorn attempt to assure the public that the information it provides can be trusted, the government-appointed ACC states on its website:
“The Climate Commission was established to provide all Australians with an independent and reliable source of information about the science of climate change…” (2)
Independent and reliable? Then why the following disclaimer:
“This website is not a substitute for independent professional advice and users should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.” (3)
There are those who dismiss the ACC as little more than a mouthpiece for government propaganda to justify its carbon (dioxide) tax, but its website does provide one excellent piece of advice:
“The Commission recommends that users ….. carefully evaluate the accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance of the material on the website for their purposes.”
So let’s do just that.
The ACC has trumpeted its message about catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW):
“The Earth continues to warm strongly despite sceptics claims.”
It appears that Chief Climate Commissioner and paleontologist Professor Tim Flannery doesn’t seem to know if he should support the ACC’s strong warming message or actually heed real-world evidence. In 2009 he said:
“We’re dealing with an incomplete understanding of the way the earth system works… When we come to the last few years when we haven’t seen a continuation of that (warming) trendwe don’t understand all of the factors that create earth’s climate…We just don’t understand the way the whole system works… See, these people work with models, computer modelling. So when the computer modelling and the real world data disagree you’ve got a very interesting problem… Sure for the last 10 years we’ve gone through a slight cooling trend.” (4) (author’s emphasis)
Cooling over the last 10 years? Following that public admission, someone at the ACC must have had a quiet word with Flannery since he later did a U-turn, telling Leigh Sales (March 4, 2013):
“If you look at the temperature of the Earth, we have to measure the oceans, the air and the land. And there, we see a continually strong rise in temperature.” (5)
A strong rise in temperature? I’m sure the scientific community would certainly like to learn more from the ACC about this strong global temperature rise that few seem to be aware of.
It appears that Flannery is no stranger to contradictions. He has even contradicted the ACC about the reliability of findings from the now discredited Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). On the one hand, the ACC declares that the IPCC is an authority on climate science:
“The IPCC is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change and is acknowledged by governments around the world, including the Australian Government, as the authoritative source of advice on climate change.” (6)
Yet, in Flannery’s 2005 book, The Weather Makers, he emphatically disagreed:
“The pronouncements of the IPCC do not represent mainstream science, nor even good science, but lowest-common-denominator-science – and of course even that is delivered at glacial speed.” (7)
What is it about the ACC and contradictions? Flannery’s fellow climate commissioner, chemical engineer Professor Will Steffen, is also no stranger to contradictions. In 2011 he told Andrew Bolt:
“We’ve had very severe droughts before so again we cannot attribute this drought statistically to climate change….”
Someone at the ACC must have also had a quiet word with Steffen. In 2013 we saw another U-turn:
“Australia has long had a highly variable climate of droughts and heavy rains, and this pattern is likely to continue into the future. However, climate change is likely to increase the severity of these extreme weather events…”
Such contradictions tend to generate doubt about the reliability of ACC pronouncements on climate. Let’s return to Flannery’s statement about global temperature:
“If you look at the temperature of the Earth, we have to measure the oceans, the air and the land. And there, we see a continually strong rise in temperature.”
Not only has there been no recent warming of the atmosphere but the oceans, which store most of the heat within the climate system, also show a lack of warming. More than 3,000 Argo buoys (8) descend to depths of 2,000 metres, continually recording ocean temperatures. Contrary to IPCC climate model predictions and Flannery’s statement, Argo data have shown no overall ocean temperature rise since deployment in 2003 (9) Keep Reading »
- 68% Increase In Arctic Ice Since Last Year
- Height of Antarctica ice sheet increasing
- Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Breaking All Records
- More Baffled German Scientists – Expedition To Find Out “Why Antarctic Sea Ice Is Expanding”
- Ocean Heat Content (0 to 2000 Meters) – Why Aren’t Northern Hemisphere Oceans Warming During the ARGO Era?
- Ocean temperatures: the new bluff in alarmism
- NATURE STUDY Confirms Global Warming Stopped 15 Years Ago
- UN-Settled Science
- Bureaucratic Dioxide
- Claim: Humans behind record Australian heat, research shows
“We need to get some broad based support,
to capture the public’s imagination…
So we have to offer up scary scenarios,
make simplified, dramatic statements
and make little mention of any doubts…
Each of us has to decide what the right balance
is between being effective and being honest.”
– Prof. Stephen Schneider,
Stanford Professor of Climatology,
lead author of many IPCC reports
“The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.”
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
It’s official, the past 12 months have been the hottest in Australia for more than a hundred years.
Temperatures averaged across Australia between September 2012 and August 2013 were hotter than any year since good records began in 1910. The previous record was held by the 12-month period from February 2005 to January 2006.
The new record follows a suite of broken records following last year’s “angry summer”, including the hottest summer since records began.
Dr Sophie Lewis is from the University of Melbourne and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science. David Karoly is a Professor of Atmospheric Science in the School of Earth Sciences and the ARC at the University of Melbourne and is a member of the Science Advisory Panel to the Australian Government’s Climate Commission.
The Climate Commission was setup by the Australian Labor Government in 2011 as an ‘independent’ body communicating on climate change. Rather than behaving independently, it has acted as a literal climate propaganda unit to promote the Governments sweeping climate reform agenda, with the controversial carbon (dioxide) tax as it’s centrepiece.
In the Sydney Morning Herald article, Karoly and Lewis claim “It’s official, the past 12 months have been the hottest in Australia for more than a hundred years.” and “The link between global warming and human causes has been firmly established over the last two decades.”
To push the man-made global warming narrative, Karoly and Lewis consistently cherry-pick ‘heat records’ from Australia’s 21st century climate. The Climate Commission’s alarmist report, “The Angry Summer” was another case in point.
What’s immediately telling in Karoly, Lewis and the Climate Commission’s work is the lack of any reference to satellite temperature data, which would be pertinent to assessing Australia’s short and long-term climatic trends.
See for yourself
Use the ‘find’ function in your browser (ctrl F) and see if you can find a reference to “satellite” or “UAH” temperature in Karoly and Lewis’ pal-reviewed study or the Climate Commission’s report:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 40, 3705 – 3709, doi:10.1002/grl.50673, 2013
Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013Sophie C. Lewis and David J. KarolyReceived 15 May 2013; revised 13 June 2013; accepted 16 June 2013; published 23 July 2013
If the satellites showed that the last Australian summer was hot, would Lewis and Karoly have left them off the paper?
Climate Commission Report – “The Angry Summer“
There is a perfectly good reason why Karoly, Lewis and the Climate Commission do not include satellite data in any of their reporting ~ because the data does not fit their alarmist ‘extreme’ heat narrative. In fact the satellite data shows a trend in the opposite direction.
The latest UAH satellite temperature dataset shows Australia’s near surface temperature (0-5km) has been cooling at -0.927°C per decade over the last 5 years and cooling at -0.291°C per decade over the last 10 years.
UAH satellite data below from John Christy, University of Alabama at Huntsville shows no rise in land or ocean temperature for the Southern Hemisphere region and no rise in Australia’s mean temperature since the beginning of the century:
The Climate Commissions reported “Angry Summer” was in fact not-so-angry or unusual at all. UAH satellite data shows in fact the 2012/13 mean summer temperature was in fact cooler than when satellite measurements began in 1979:
This is what the RSS and the MSU satellite records for the lower troposphere have to say about Australia:
Both satellite datasets agree that there was nothing at all unusual about the 2012 summer. Did Karoly and the Climate Commission researches notice this fact? Or perhaps they just thought it wasn’t important for their report?
Jo Nova makes a sound assessment of the state of climate science over at the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science :
The peer reviewed, comprehensive, Lewis and Karoly paper does not contain the words “satellite”, or “UAH”. Lewis and Karoly apparently do not know about the UAH satellite program yet, otherwise they surely would have emailed John Christy or Roy Spencer (as we did) to ask for the data. We can only hope that they get enough government support, more funding, and better education in future so that they may discover what unpaid volunteers figured out on the Internet for free 3 months ago. Frankly it is shameful that the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science is not connected to the world wide web and has not trained staff to use “google”.
Real Scientific Questions For David Karoly, Sophie Lewis & The Climate Commission:
- If humans are making a substantial addition to a ‘warming’ climate, then why has the temperature of the globe not changed in 15-17 years despite a massive increase in human CO² emissions over the same period?
- Why has Australia’s mean summer surface temperature not changed since 1979?
- Why has Australia’s mean surface temperature been falling since 2007 and globally since 1998, despite record human greenhouse gas emissions output? Nature Study Confirms Global Warming Stopped 15 Years Ago
- How do the researchers reconcile human induced climate change (warming) based on Australian ‘weather’ over a few months of a year? Isn’t global warming a global ‘climate’ (30-year-cycle) issue?
These are mere basic scientific questions the Climate Commission should be using taxpayer funds to answer, not cherry-picking often UHI (Urban Heat Island) affected temp station data and suspect Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) temperature calculations to promote a Government climate agenda and massage an ideological climate bent.
Mammalogist Tim Flannery is the head of Australia’s Climate Commission. For his $180,000, three day, part-time working week, he gets to make decisions that affect billions of dollars of Australian taxpayer’s hard-earned money:
- Tim Flannery sacked, Climate Commission dismantled by Coalition | Herald Sun
- A win for Australia! Government scraps Climate Commission. « JoNova
- Flannery sacked | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog
- Australia’s Angry Hot Summer was hot angry hype – satellites show it was average
- Australia’s record hottest 12 month period? Junk science say the Satellites | CACA
- Mystery black-box method used to make *all new* Australian “hottest” ever records
- Our ‘Angry Summer’ was no worse than miffed
- Climate queries? Ask a paleontologist
- The very model of a modern climate scientist
- Climate Commission’s latest report slammed as ‘environmental activism’
- Australia’s Angry Summer Of 1924
- Extreme heat in 1896: Panic stricken people fled the outback on special trains as hundreds die.
- Be angry instead at the angry summer scaremongers
- Tony Jones lets Bill McKibben get away with barking nonsense “Really one degree is utter catastrophe”
H/t to Sunshine Hours