Ocean Cooling September 2022

Background:

* The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
* SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
* A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.

Forecast:

Here’s Where a Rare “Triple Dip La Niña” Might Drop the Most Snow This Winter
— Ski Mag

The unusual weather phenomenon might result in the snowiest season in years for some parts of the country.

Science Matters

The best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:

• The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
• SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
• A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source. Previously I used HadSST3 for these reports, but Hadley Centre has made HadSST4 the priority, and v.3 will no longer be updated.  HadSST4 is the same as v.3, except that the older data from ship water intake was re-estimated to be generally lower temperatures than shown in v.3.  The effect is that v.4 has lower average anomalies for the baseline period 1961-1990, thereby showing higher current anomalies…

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