ARCTIC ALARMISM UPDATE : Cambridge University Professor Accused Of “Crying Wolf”

“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon…” – Prof. Paul Wadhams 2007 (‘Arctic will be ice free by 2013’ – BBC)

“greater than even chance” that the North Pole could be ice-free for the first time next month. – Prof. Paul Wadhams 2016 (‘A Farewell to Ice‘)

Arctic ice “may well disappear” this September – Prof. Paul Wadhams 2016

Arctic-Wolf.jpg

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Climate experts at war over prediction of ice-free Arctic

  • The Times
  • 11:30AM August 25, 2016

A Cambridge University professor has been accused of “crying wolf” by predicting the imminent disappearance of Arctic ice.

Peter Wadhams has been criticised by scientists who fear that he could undermine the credibility of climate science by making doom-laden forecasts.

He repeatedly predicted that the Arctic would be “ice-free” by last summer, by which he meant it would have less than one million sq km of ice. His forecasts, reported around the world, turned out to be wrong.

Drift ice off the Arctic coast. Picture: iStock

Satellite measurements revealed there was a minimum of 4.6 million sq km of Arctic ice last summer, well below the long-term average but above the record low in 2012 of 3.6 million sq km.

In June this year, Professor Wadhams, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Cambridge, predicted that Arctic ice “may well disappear” this September. He added: “Even if the ice doesn’t completely disappear, it is very likely that this will be a record low year.”

A recent press release promoting his new book, Farewell to Ice, claimed that there was a “greater than even chance” that the North Pole could be ice-free for the first time next month.

The US National Snow and Ice Data Center, which monitors Arctic ice, said last week: “It is unlikely that Arctic sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.” Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, analysed Professor Wadhams’ forecasts on a climate science website and questioned whether they should be taken seriously.

He wrote: “There are very serious risks from continued climatic changes and a melting Arctic but we do not serve the public and policymakers well by exaggerating those risks. We will soon see an ice-free summer in the Arctic but there is a real danger of ‘crying wolf’.”

Dr Hawkins said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN’s climate science advisory body, had forecast that the Arctic would be “reliably ice-free”, meaning more than five consecutive years below one million sq km, by the mid-21st century.

Dr Hawkins said: “Putting a precise date on when we see the first days or weeks that are ‘ice-free’ is unwise because of the chaotic nature of the climate system and uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions.”

Richard Betts, head of climate impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre, also expressed concern. Writing on the same climate science website, he said: “When someone talks up imminent catastrophe, they might think they are getting a quick win by getting a scary story out there, but in the long term it will be an own goal.”

Last year, Professor Wadhams claimed that assassins may have murdered three British scientists who were seeking to reveal how rapidly global warming was melting Arctic ice. He complained about a report in The Times on his claims, saying he had been misquoted. The Independent Press Standards Organisation dismissed his complaint, stating “the article had accurately reported his position as he had explained it to the journalist”.

Professor Wadhams declined to comment apart from suggesting that he knew more about the Arctic than Dr Hawkins because he had been there on many research trips.

The Times

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The Real World

  • Arctic sea-ice is tracking 2015 levels at around 4.6 million sq km.
  • Current sea-ice level is higher than the 2007 summer of 4.13 million sq km, when Wadhams made his dire forecast in the BBC article “Arctic will be ice free by 2013
  • 2016 sea-ice levels are a mile away from Wadhams’ 1,000,000 million sq km “ice free” tipping point.
  • Current Arctic sea-ice levels are well above the record low set in 2012 of 3.6 million sq km.

extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous

extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png (1201×962)

Arctic Recovery 

There has been a massive expansion of thick Arctic Sea ice since 2012

IceThickness-2012-2016.gif

via Real Science

Arctic summer melt season ended a week early

meanT_2016

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

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Arctic Sea-Ice related 

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10 Comments on “ARCTIC ALARMISM UPDATE : Cambridge University Professor Accused Of “Crying Wolf””

  1. chaamjamal says:

    Arctic ice “may well disappear” this September. He added: “Even if the ice doesn’t completely disappear, it is very likely that this will be a record low year.”

    And if not a record low it will be pretty low. Low enough to be very very scary.

    Like

    • Climatism says:

      Hard to believe he is so hard-wired into the catastrophic warming belief that he is willing to be pulled up by his warmist peers, thus picked up by mainstream media (The Times & The Australian) consequently having his reputation smashed.
      Silly question, but doesn’t he look at the current data showing the recovery or at the least, stability, since 2007?!

      Like

      • His goal is to sell books, and doom sells. He is not a scientist reporting findings, he is a novelist making up doom scenarios and shopping for bits of data to cobble together a scenario of doom.

        Liked by 1 person

  2. […] Source: ARCTIC ALARMISM UPDATE : Cambridge University Professor Accused Of “Crying Wolf” […]

    Like

  3. Peter Wells says:

    NASA is now trying to rewrite solar cycle history on http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml. Recent research is confirming the fact that solar cycles and temperature are related, so the chart available in the paragraph on the Maunder Minimum has been substantially revised to hide the temperature correlation from that minimum through the early 1900’s. I have a copy of an earlier version of that chart clearly showing the revisions to past data.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. pyeatte says:

    Betting on whether or not the Artic is going to be ice-free is like betting on which rain drop makes it to the bottom of the windshield.

    Like

  5. Jbird says:

    Sheesh! How many years have they been predicting the disappearance of Arctic sea ice? The alarmists continue to try to recycle these old worries that never seen to happen, and the media never seems to tire of it, even though fewer and fewer people are paying attention.

    Like

  6. Guest says:

    ….. “greater than even chance” that the North Pole could be ice-free for the first time next month….”

    **********

    What a mind numbingly stupid individual.

    Like

  7. […] Climate experts at war over prediction of ice-free Arctic […]

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