Posted: November 28, 2016 Filed under: Climate science, CO2 (Carbon Dioxide), Data Tampering, Empirical Evidence, Fact Check, Failed Climate Models, Gavin Schmidt, Global Cooling, Global Temperature, Global Warming Stasis, Global Warming Zealots, NASA, NOAA, Satellite Data, UAH | Tags: El Nino, Gavin Schmidt, GISS, Global Temperature, GWPF, La Niña, nasa, Natural Climate Change, Natural Climate Forcings, RSS Satellite Data, UAH satellite data
Record Drop In Global Temperatures As El Nino Warming Ends | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
The controversial global warming aka climate change “hiatus/pause”, lingering like a bad smell to climate alarmists for nearly two decades, is back in play with a record drop in global temperatures since the middle of the year.
Temperatures are heading south rapidly. The latest huge drop despite record and increasing CO2 emissions.
Must be nearing revision time for the theory of Catastrophic Global Warming with regards to CO2-sensitivity?
Via GWPF :
(Bolds added by Climatism)
RECORD DROP IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AS EL NINO WARMING ENDS
Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record. According to satellite data, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.
The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end.
The fall, revealed by Nasa satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, has been caused by the end of El Nino – the warming of surface waters in a vast area of the Pacific west of Central America.
Some scientists, including Dr Gavin Schmidt, head of Nasa’s climate division, have claimed that the recent highs were mainly the result of long-term global warming.
Others have argued that the records were caused by El Nino, a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years, and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans.
The new fall in temperatures suggests they were right.
Big El Ninos always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Nino was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.
It has now been replaced by a La Nina event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal.
This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.
The satellite measurements over land respond quickly to El Nino and La Nina. Temperatures over the sea are also falling, but not as fast, because the sea retains heat for longer.
This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.
But it is almost certain that next year, large falls will also be measured over the oceans, and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Nino in 1998. If so, some experts will be forced to eat their words.
Last year, Dr Schmidt said 2015 would have been a record hot year even without El Nino.
‘The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,’ he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.
Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Ninos.
But on its website home page yesterday, Nasa featured a new study which said there was a hiatus in global warming before the recent El Nino, and discussed why this was so. Last night Dr Schmidt had not returned a request for comment.
However, both his own position, and his Nasa division, may be in jeopardy. US President-elect Donald Trump is an avowed climate change sceptic, who once claimed it was a hoax invented by China.
Last week, Mr Trump’s science adviser Bob Walker said he was likely to axe Nasa’s $1.9 billion (about £1.4 billion) climate research budget.
Other experts have also disputed Dr Schmidt’s claims. Professor Judith Curry, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said yesterday: ‘I disagree with Gavin. The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino.’
The slowdown in warming was, she added, real, and all the evidence suggested that since 1998, the rate of global warming has been much slower than predicted by computer models – about 1C per century.
David Whitehouse, a scientist who works with Lord Lawson’s sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the massive fall in temperatures following the end of El Nino meant the warming hiatus or slowdown may be coming back.
‘According to the satellites, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino.
The data clearly shows El Nino for what it was – a short-term weather event,’ he said.
Record Drop In Global Temperatures As El Nino Warming Ends | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
NASA and NOAA will be tweaking their heads and data-sets overtime in order to declare 2016 as “The Hottest Year Evah”. Possibly too late in the year to wipe out this years “Super El niño”.
Further analysis from Paul Homewood’s excellent site Not A Lot Of People Know That :
Rose uses satellite data for his graph, but the NOAA surface data for land also gives a stark picture:
Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Even NOAA admit that October was by far the coldest over land since 2001, despite the fact that are we still awaiting the start of La Nina.
It is also becoming increasingly apparent that this year’s El Nino event is the strongest one at least for the last 60 years, more powerful than 1983/3 and 1997/8.
Whilst it has not peaked quite as high, it has been much more longer lasting.
Earth System Research Laboratory : PSD : (none)
Global Land Temperatures Plummet In October | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
Posted: September 8, 2016 Filed under: Climate Fraud, Climatism, Data Tampering, Empirical Evidence, Environmentalists, Fact Check, Gavin Schmidt, Global Temperature, Govt Climate Agenda, Green Agenda, Satellite Data, Scientific Fraud, UAH | Tags: Climate Change Scam, climate fraud, Data Fraud, Data Tampering, Fact Check, Gavin Schmidt, Global Warming, nasa, NOAA, RSS Satellite Data, Satellite Data, UAH satellite data, UHI
“I believe it is appropriate to have an ‘over-representation’ of the facts
on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience.”
– Al Gore,
Climate Change activist
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.“
– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation
“The Earth has cancer
and the cancer is Man.”
– Club of Rome,
premier environmental think-tank,
consultants to the United Nations
Global Warming activists routinely parrot the infamous “Hottest Year Ever” meme.
However, this depends entirely on which temperature data set is cited:
NASA’s ‘GISS’ temp uses land and ocean-based thermometers which measure “different parts of the system [UHI affected parking lots, asphalt heat sinks, AC exhaust air vents], different signal to noise ratio [we bias toward warm stations], different structural uncertainty [we ‘homogenise’ our data set to cool the past and warm the present to fit the global warming narrative].” – NASA GISS Gavin Schmidt’s admission about the satellite record versus the surface temperature record (square bracket add-ons by Climatism)
Then there are the much more accurate and comprehensive satellite measurement systems, RSS/UAH, which measure 24/7 the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower troposphere – the exact place where global warming is meant to occur, according to the theory.
There is a growing divergence between NASA’s (land-based) GISS temp and RSS (lower troposphere) satellite temps since 2000:
Gavin’s New Site | Real Science
The growing divergence between NASA’s GISS and RSS satellite data sets, since 2000, didn’t used to be so stark.
So why the obvious temp divergence, post 2000, after near exact correlation from 1979?
Before 2016 El Niño :
Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
Current RSS v GISS :
Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
Tony Heller of Real Climate Science, amongst many other heroic climate realists, have spent thousands of unpaid hours explaining why NASA’s data set has been corrupted by 1. UHI and 2. ‘Cooling the past and warming the present.'(data manipulation) to fit the global warming narrative.
UHI (Urban Heat Island effect):
I did a survey of the ten oldest stations in New South Wales And Victoria, circled below. Three rural stations were not included because of obvious problems with the data, but none showed any warming.
MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE ASN00086071
DENILIQUIN (WILKINSON ST) ASN00074128
BATHURST GAOL ASN00063004
SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL) ASN00066062
CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE GSN ASN00090015
BOURKE POST OFFICE ASN00048013
WAGGA WAGGA (KOORINGAL) ASN00072151
FORBES (CAMP STREET) ASN00065016
INVERELL COMPARISON ASN00056017
GUNNEDAH POOL ASN00055023
The two urban stations at Melbourne and Sydney both showed strong warming, and both have disastrously poor siting of their thermometers in the middle of large cities.
By contrast, all of the rural stations show a long term cooling trend, with some recent warming. (Note that there is no data for the most recent years with some of the rural stations.)
The only conclusion which can be derived from this is that Australia has not warmed long-term, and that BOM claims of record temperatures are due to UHI and/or data tampering.
For all GHCN stations in Australia, there is no net warming since 1880
Satellites temperature measurement systems, UAH/RSS, are not polluted with asphalt, car parks, AC exhausts or human development, which is probably why they show no statistically significant global warming, at all, for nearly two decades :
LATEST GLOBAL TEMPS – UAH SATELLITE – ROY SPENCER – Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD
Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
UPDATE April, 2 2017
Current RSS Satellite temp data…
(Note record temp drop post 2016 El nino. Confirmed by UK Met office.)
Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
On the other hand, NASA’s climate change activist-in-chief, Gavin Schmidt’s GISS temp measures; asphalt, car parks, AC exhausts and human development :
From WUWT :
From the “global warming data looks better with heat-sinks and air conditioners” department.
Dr. Mark Albright, of the University of Washington writes:
Here is a great example of how NOT to measure the climate! On our way back to Tucson from Phoenix on Monday we stopped by to see the Picacho 8 SE coop site at Picacho Peak State Park. Note the white MMTS temperature monitor 1/3 of the way in from the left. The building is surrounded by the natural terrain of the Sonoran Desert, but instead the worst possible site adjacent to the paved road and SW facing brick wall was chosen in 2009 as the location to monitor temperature.
Here is a view looking Northeast:
For an aerial view in google maps:
The NCEI HOMR metadata repository tells us:
COMPATABLE EQUIPMENT MOVE 55 FEET DUE WEST. EQUIPMENT MOVED 05/06/2009. (that is when the new state park visitor center was built)
Note the air conditioner heat exchangers within a few feet of the MMTS sensor:
Picacho 8 SE has it all: brick building, parking lot, road, and air conditioner heat exchangers within a few feet of the MMTS sensor.
This one takes the cake, and I think it is worse than our former worst-case USHCN station (now closed) located in a parking lot in Tucson at the University of Arizona:
And here’s the resulting UHI-polluted graph from NASA :
Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Analysis Graphs and Plots
Outside of how to accurately measure the earth’s atmosphere to detect the supposed anthropogenic global warming signal, there is a mountain of damning evidence relating to the fraudulent tampering of the global temperature record by climate activist government agencies – NASA and NOAA.
I highly recommend visiting Tony Heller’s site “Real Climate Science” for a comprehensive understanding of the blatant manipulation of NASA’s GISS temp data set to fit the global warming narrative.
Some examples via Tony Heller of NASA ‘cooling the past and warming the present’:
NASA has massively altered their global temperature data over the past 15 years, to double global warming:
A Closer Look At GISS Temperature Fraud | Real Science
The animated image below shows the changes which Dr. Hansen made to the historical US temperature record after the year 1999. He cooled the 1930s, and warmed the 1980s and 1990s. The year 1998 went from being more than half a degree cooler than 1934, to warmer than 1934:
Spectacularly Poor Climate Science At NASA | Real Science
NASA didn’t like the 1940’s warmth in Iceland, so they simply erased it:
The Arctic warming from 1910 to 1940 completely wrecks the alarmist’s story. Fortunately for them, they control the NASA and NOAA data and can tamper with it any way they want to produce data which matches their theory.
They are constantly cooling the past in Iceland, with their latest handiwork shown below.
Original version : Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
Most recent tampering : Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
What they can’t tamper with is the written record of eyewitnesses.
18 Feb 1952 – POLAR ICE THAW INCREASING GLACIERS SAID TO [?] M…
31 May 1947 – TEMPERATURES RISING IN ARCTIC REGION LOS ANGELES…
See also :
NASA Data Fraud Related :
Australia Massaged Adjustment / UHI Related :
Posted: May 5, 2016 Filed under: Alarmism Debunked, Climatism, Failed Climate Models, Gavin Schmidt, Global Temperature, Government Grants/Funding, Govt Climate Agenda, NASA, NOAA, Satellite Data, UAH, UHI | Tags: Global Temperature, Hottest Year Ever, nasa, NOAA, propaganda, RSS Satellite Data, UAH satellite data, UHI
Been hearing that 2015 was the hottest year on record? This depends entirely on which temperature data set is being referred. There are two main methods of measuring global temperature:
- The much more accurate and comprehensive satellite measurement systems, RSS/UAH, which measure the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower atmosphere, the exact place where global warming theory is meant to occur and be measured! Or…
- NASA and NOAA’s preferred surface-based thermometers which measure “different parts of the system [UHI affected parking lots, asphalt heat sinks, AC exhaust air vents], different signal to noise ratio [we bias toward warm stations], different structural uncertainty [we ‘homogenise’ the data set to cool the past and warm the present to fit the global warming narrative].” – NASA GISS Gavin Schmidt’s admission about the satellite record versus the surface temperature record (doctored in square brackets by Climatism)
- The other issue with surface-based thermometer readings is that you can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometres without finding a thermometer nearby. The Arctic region is a great example of this, as well the oceans which cover 70 percent of the planet.
With the ever increasing divergence of surface temperatures (NASA GISS) from satellite ones (UAH/RSS), and the subsequent divergence of overheated climate models (IPCC CMIP5) to observed reality, it is worth some background on the temperature measurement systems used to measure global temperature and fundamentally to help combat misinformation about NASA and NOAA’s “Hottest Year Ever” – PR claims that tell us everything about marketing, and nothing about science…
Measuring global temperatures: Satellites or thermometers?
January 26, 2016 by Dr. Roy Spencer
The University of Alabama in Huntsville
The official global temperature numbers are in, and NOAA and NASA have decided that 2015 was the warmest year on record. Based mostly upon surface thermometers, the official pronouncement ignores the other two primary ways of measuring global air temperatures, satellites and radiosondes (weather balloons).
The fact that those ignored temperature datasets suggest little or no warming for about 18 years now, it is worth outlining the primary differences between these three measurement systems.
Three Ways to Measure Global Temperatures
The primary ways to monitor global average air temperatures are surface based thermometers (since the late 1800s), radiosondes (weather balloons, since about the 1950s), and satellites measuring microwave emissions (since 1979). Other technologies, such as GPS satellite based methods have limited record length and have not yet gained wide acceptance for accuracy.
While the thermometers measure near-surface temperature, the satellites and radiosondes measure the average temperature of a deep layer of the lower atmosphere. Based upon our understanding of how the atmosphere works, the deep layer temperatures are supposed to warm (and cool) somewhat more strongly than the surface temperatures. In other words, variations in global average temperature are expected to be magnified with height, say through the lowest 10 km of atmosphere. We indeed see this during warm El Nino years (like 2015) and cool La Nina years.
The satellite record is the shortest, and since most warming has occurred since the 1970s anyway we often talk about temperature trends since 1979 so that we can compare all three datasets over a common period.
Temperatures of the deep ocean, which I will not address in detail, have warmed by amounts so small — hundredths of a degree — that it is debatable whether they are accurate enough to be of much use. Sea surface temperatures, also indicating modest warming in recent decades, involve an entirely new set of problems, with rather sparse sampling by a mixture of bucket temperatures from many years ago, to newer ship engine intake temperatures, buoys, and since the early 1980s infrared satellite measurements.
How Much Warming?
Since 1979, it is generally accepted that the satellites and radiosondes measure 50% less of a warming trend than the surface thermometer data do, rather than 30-50% greater warming trend that theory predicts for warming aloft versus at the surface.
This is a substantial disagreement.
Why the Disagreement?
There are different possibilities for the disagreement:
1) Surface thermometer analyses are spuriously overestimating the true temperature trend
2) Satellites and radiosondes are spuriously underestimating the true temperature trend
3) All data are largely correct, and are telling us something new about how the climate system operates under long-term warming.
First let’s look at the fundamental basis for each measurement.
All Temperature Measurements are “Indirect”
Roughly speaking, “temperature” is a measure of the kinetic energy of motion of molecules in air.
Unfortunately, we do not have an easy way to directly measure that kinetic energy of motion.
Instead, many years ago, mercury-in-glass or alcohol-in-glass thermometers were commonly used, where the thermal expansion of a column of liquid in response to temperature was estimated by eye. These measurements have now largely been replaced with thermistors, which measure the resistance to the flow of electricity, which is also temperature-dependent.
Such measurements are just for the air immediately surrounding the thermometer, and as we all know, local sources of heat (a wall, pavement, air conditioning or heating equipment, etc.) can and do affect the measurements made by the thermometer. It has been demonstrated many times that urban locations have higher temperatures than rural locations, and such spurious heat influences are difficult to eliminate entirely, since we tend to place thermometers where people live.
Radiosondes also use a thermistor, which is usually checked against a separate thermometer just before weather balloon launch. As the weather balloon carries the thermistor up through the atmosphere, it is immune from ground-based sources of contamination, but it still has various errors due to sunlight heating and infrared cooling which are minimized through radiosonde enclosure design. Radiosondes are much fewer in number, generally making hundreds of point measurements around the world each day, rather than many thousands of measurements that thermometers make.
Satellite microwave radiometers are the fewest in number, only a dozen or so, but each one is transported by its own satellite to continuously measure virtually the entire earth each day. Each individual measurement represents the average temperature of a volume of the lower atmosphere about 50 km in diameter and about 10 km deep, which is about 25,000 cubic kilometers of air. About 20 of those measurements are made every second as the satellite travels and the instrument scans across the Earth.
The satellite measurement itself is “radiative”: the level of microwave emission by oxygen in the atmosphere is measured and compared to that from a warm calibration target on the satellite (whose temperature is monitored with several highly accurate platinum resistance thermometers), and a cold calibration view of the cosmic background radiation from space, assumed to be about 3 Kelvin (close to absolute zero temperature). A less sophisticated (infrared) radiation temperature measurement is made with the medical thermometer you place in your ear.
So, Which System is Better?
The satellites have the advantage of measuring virtually the whole Earth every day with the same instruments, which are then checked against each other. But since there are very small differences between the instruments, which can change slightly over time, adjustments must be made.
Thermometers have the advantage of being much greater in number, but with potentially large long-term spurious warming effects depending on how each thermometer’s local environment has changed with the addition of manmade objects and structures.
Virtually all thermometer measurements require adjustments of some sort, simply because with the exception of a few thermometer sites, there has not been a single, unaltered instrument measuring the same place for 30+ years without a change in its environment. When such rare thermometers were identified in a recent study of the U.S., it was found that by comparison the official U.S. warming trends were exaggerated by close to 60%. Thus, the current official NOAA adjustment procedures appear to force the good data to match the bad data, rather than the other way around. Whether such problem exist with other countries data remains to be seen.
Changes in radiosonde design and software have occurred over the years, making some adjustments necessary to the raw data.
For the satellites, orbital decay of the satellites requires an adjustment of the “lower tropospheric” (LT) temperatures, which is well understood and quite accurate, depending only upon geometry and the average rate of temperature decrease with altitude. But the orbital decay also causes the satellites to slowly drift in the time of day they observe. This “diurnal drift” adjustment is less certain. Significantly, very different procedures for this adjustment have led to almost identical results between the satellite datasets produced by UAH (The University of Alabama in Huntsville) and RSS (Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, California).
The fact that the satellites and radiosondes – two very different types of measurement system — tend to agree with each other gives us somewhat more confidence in their result that warming has been much less than predicted by climate models. But even the thermometers indicate less warming than the models, just with less of a discrepancy.
And this is probably the most important issue…that no matter which temperature monitoring method we use, the climate models that global warming policies are based upon have been, on average, warming faster than all of our temperature observation systems.
I do believe “global warming” has occurred, but (1) it is weaker than expected, based upon independent satellite and weather balloon measurements; (2) it has been overestimated with poorly adjusted surface-based thermometers; (3) it has a substantial natural component; and (4) it is likely to be more beneficial to life on Earth than harmful.
About the Author: Dr. Roy Spencer
Roy W. Spencer is a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. He received his Ph.D. in Meteorology from the University of Wisconsin in 1981. As Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, Dr. Spencer previously directed research into the development and application of satellite passive microwave remote sensing techniques for measuring global temperature, water vapor, and precipitation. He is co-developer of the original satellite method for precision monitoring of global temperatures from Earth-orbiting satellites. Dr. Spencer also serves as U.S. Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) flying on NASA’s Terra satellite. He has authored numerous research articles in scientific journals, and has provided congressional testimony several times on the subject of global warming.
See also :