Arctic sea ice melt has turned the corner

That “Ice-Free Arctic” we were promised, on ice for yet another year… ❄️

Watts Up With That?

I almost called this yesterday, but I needed more data to be sure. All of the data I’ve looked at agrees, Arctic sea ice is now on the upswing, and in a big way.

Here is the plot from NSIDC:

n_stddev_timeseries-9-13-16

This graph from Wipneus shows the abruptness of the change:

amsr2-area-all-cmpare

And the physics of ice is also a dead giveaway. Here, the Arctic temperature shows a dramatic upswing.

meant_2016-09-13-16

This is why: when water freezes it releases its specific latent heat.

The specific latent heat is the amount of energy required to convert 1 kg (or 1 lb) of a substance from solid to liquid (or vice-versa) without a change in the temperature of the surroundings — all absorbed energy goes into the phase change — is known as the specific latent heat of fusion.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_heat#Specific_latent_heat

For water, that’s about 334 KiloJoules of energy per kilogram.

Added: Note that in the…

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Wash-out: Warmist Bureau’s Drought Prediction Fail

609203-readers-039-flood-photos

Floods Hit Victoria (Source : Herald Sun) 

Yet another alarmist scare out of the warmist Australian Bureau of Meteorology, wrecked by Mother Nature.

Either that or they put way too much ‘faith’ in their junk-in, junk-out computer models.

The litany of failed, alarmist predictions is why scientific organisations, such as the BoM, have – tragically – become almost the last places to hear the truth about global warming climate change.

The ‘Meteorological Office’ used to exist as a corrective to scaremongering, not any more.

•••

From Herald Sun

Floods? Near-record rainfall? I’d like the head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology to explain why his 2008 prediction of a “new climate” of drought turned out so wrong.

 

2008:

IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.

“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones.

2016:

Winter was Australia’s second wettest on record – just missing out on a new high by a couple of millimetres, leaving many regions already sodden.

“It’s about as wet as it has been in the past 110 years [of records] across Australia,” David Jones, head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.

•••

Related :


Blotting Out Global Warming Fantasies…

Anthropogenic “climate change”, and the control of carbon dioxide (energy), has deep roots in a radical, yet gravely misguided campaign to reduce the world’s population.

A misanthropic agenda engineered by the environmental movement in the mid 1970’s, who realised that doing something about “global warming” would play to quite a number of its social agendas.

The goal was advanced, most notably, by The Club Of Rome (Environmental consultants to the UN) – a group of mainly European scientists and academics, who used computer modelling to warn that the world would run out of finite resources if population growth were left unchecked.

In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that .. the threat of global warming.. would fit the bill.. the real enemy, then, is humanity itself….” – Club Of Rome

Climate Change alarmism is born out of the theory or belief that human-produced carbon dioxide will fry the planet, melt the ice caps, and destroy all life on earth. The idea being to sow enough fear of man-made climate change to force global cutbacks in industrial activity and halt Third World development.

The agenda driven, and in more recent times, money driven fear-mongering is largely succeeding, as western governments fall prey to the populist eco-agenda of climate – enacting draconian climate/energy policy that is curtailing western growth and stifling development in the third world.

This post from “Pindanpost” lists a few of the latest examples of empirical and hard scientific data of why catastrophic human-induced climate change is the biggest scientific scandal ever foisted on humanity, and why you shouldn’t be so alarmed!

At the very least, the “science” definitely ain’t “settled”…

pindanpost

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Antarctic Peninsula Has Been Cooling For Almost 20 Years, Scientists Confirm

From the department of “Global Warming settled science”…

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

From the “When it warms, it’s climate change; but when it cools, it’s natural variability” Dept:

image

http://www.thegwpf.com/antarctic-has-been-cooling-for-almost-20-years-scientists-confirm/

One of the big climate lies is that the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming places on Earth. (The key word here is “IS”)

This naturally leads on to propagation of the melting glaciers scare.

As I have shown before, for instance here, temperatures rose there from the time when we started measuring temperatures in the 1950s till the 1980s. However, since then temperatures have stopped rising.

Now, a new study by researchers from the British Antarctic Survey confirm that temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have actually been falling since the late 1990s.

This is the press release from Science Daily:

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Study: Worsening drought from climate change may be ‘considerably weaker and less extensive than previously thought’

From the department of “settled science”…

Watts Up With That?

A new publication in Nature Climate Change puts the brakes on predictions that global warming/climate change may produce continental scale droughts into the late 21st century. For example, NCAR said in 2010: CLIMATE CHANGE: DROUGHT MAY THREATEN MUCH OF GLOBE WITHIN DECADES

Then they had to back down and correct the original, when they found the drought PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) numbers were overestimated by double the amount:

Update – July 3, 2012

This news release has been revised to reflect a miscalculation in the original study that inadvertently resulted when simulations of historical drought were combined with simulations of future drought. The revised maps, below, indicate that drought levels on the Palmer Drought Severity Index may reach -10 in certain regions, whereas the levels reached -20 on the original maps. Similarly, upper-latitude areas become less moist than previously projected. Large portions of the globe are still expected to…

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Study Shows Those Who Claimed ‘Climate Debate Over’ Were Wrong

When the journal “Science” prints a study doubting CO2 sensitivity, or basically, the effect that man-made CO2 has on the temperature of the atmosphere, you can be 100% sure that the “science” of climate change is most definitely not “settled”!

Good read…

PA Pundits - International

Kreutzer_David_TDS_loBy David Kreutzer, Ph.D. ~

Last summer, the editor of Science wrote a commentary on climate change where she said “The time for debate has ended.”

After appealing to policies based on economic knowledge she doesn’t have, she finished with speculation as to which ring of Dante’s Inferno would God designate for climate skeptics.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry with former Vice President Al Gore at the Paris Climate Conference. (Photo: State Department/Sipa USA/Newscom)U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry with former Vice President Al Gore at the Paris Climate Conference. (Photo: State Department/Sipa USA/Newscom)

All in all, it was an awesomely unscientific tour de farce and totally depressing in that it came from one of the world’s two most prestigious science journals.

Of course the time for debate hasn’t ended—especially for the meaningful debate concerning how much impact carbon dioxide has on global warming.

The relationship under debate is how much warming will the world see from a doubling of carbon dioxide—which is called the equilibrium climate sensitivity.

Members…

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Settled Science Update : New Paper Finds 18 Year Warming ‘Pause’ Not Due To Missing Heat Hiding In The Deep Ocean

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to 
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC 
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itohan award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of 
scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” – U.S Government
Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of
NOAA.

“The whole climate change issue is about to fall apart — Heads will roll!” – South African UN Scientist Dr. Will Alexander, April 12, 2009

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.

•••
download

via THE HOCKEY SCHTICK :

New paper finds the 18+ year ‘pause’ of global warming is not due to missing heat hiding in the deep oceans

A new paper published in Ocean Science Discussions directly contradicts the claim that “90%” of the alleged “missing heat” from anthropogenic global warming has disappeared into the deep oceans below 2000 meters. This was, according to the authors, the favored excuse (out of more than 70 ‘excuses’ at this point) for the “pause” or “hiatus” of global warming over the past 18+ years.

Warming of the deep oceans, however, would cause thermal expansion of the deep oceans and add to sea level rise [called steric sea level rise]. The authors examined several datasets including satellite altimetry, ARGO floats, and the GRACE gravitometer satellites, and find that the thermal expansion of the deep oceans and contribution to sea level rise is “negligible,” and thus, there is no evidence that the alleged “missing heat” “trapped” by greenhouse gases has somehow sunken to the deep oceans. In addition, the “missing heat” is also nowhere to be found in the upper oceans, nor the atmosphere (because in reality it was lost to space as increased outgoing IR radiation over the past 62 years).

The authors find the sea level budget of total sea level rise is “closed” with “negligible” contribution from the deep ocean, thus no warming or thermal expansion from the “missing heat” in the deep ocean can be accounted for:

“…the sea level budget is closed when using the CCI, AVISO and NOAA data. Hence, in these cases, the deep ocean (below 2000 meters) contribution is negligible.”

Note: see prior Hockey Schtick posts using the GRACE ocean mass + ARGO steric sea level calculation of sea level change described in this paper, as well as this NOAA 2012 calculation of same showing sea level rising at less than half the rate claimed by the IPCC.
Excerpts, full paper here

Read full post via THE HOCKEY SCHTICK ….

•••

UPDATE :

NASA Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed | NASA

Oceans Not warming NASA study.png

Related : 

Climatism Hot Links :


The Science is Settled : “Children Just Aren’t Going To Know What Snow Is”

Snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David VinerSenior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.”UN IPCC
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.

•••

Screen Shot 2015-05-12 at , May 12, 11.04.59 am

Source: The Daily Telegraph

With snowfall blanketing NSW ski fields a month before the official start of the snow season, Andrew Bolt takes a look back at past snow fall predictions, made by our most revered climate experts, and checks how they’re holding up …

•••

via Andrew Bolt Blog – Herald Sun :

Does the CSIRO still stick by its prediction?

Do not question the science!

The warmist CSIRO, August 2003:


Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths.  At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

Reality, 2015: 

Hopes of bumper season as 15cm of snow covers Perisher’s slopes with more falls predicted.

All around the world, warmists were once predicting the end of snow:

2000 – a prediction from the centre of global warming alarmism:
According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.


2000:
a prediction from Professor Mojib Latif of Germany’s GEOMAR Heimholtz Centre for Ocean Research:

Winters with strong frosts and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will no longer exist at our latitudes.

2008 – another prediction:

A study of snowfall spanning 60 years has indicated that the Alps’s entire winter sports industry could grind to a halt through lack of snow….

Ever since we’ve actually seen amazing snow dumps, especially in the US.

UPDATE

The Australian Antarctic Division gets more reason to doubt the polar-caps-are-melting scare:

Record Antarctic sea ice is forcing scientists to consider relocating research bases as they struggle to cope.

Satellite observations show a new daily record being set for ­Antarctic sea ice every day for the past two weeks. Annual records have also been broken every year for the past three years.

Rob Wooding, general manager of the Australian Antarctic Division’s Operations Branch, said expanding sea ice was now causing serious problems. Last year, fuel supplies were flown to Australia’s Mawson base by helicopter because the harbour had failed to clear. Dr Wooding said the situation was “unsustainable”…

Seasonal growth in Antarctic sea ice is now under way and is expected to peak at another record level in September… Recent research had also shown the ice is thicker than previously thought.

At least warmist scientist Chris Turney has stayed away this year, having learned that the world isn’t following his warming script:

IT began as a journey to “investigate the impact of changing climate” and to “use the subantarctic islands as thermometers of climatic change” but more than 70 global warming activists, journalists and crew, led by University of NSW professor of climate change Chris Turney, are now trapped by millions of tonnes of ice after their ship was caught in freezing conditions off the Antarctic coast.

•••

Climatism observations :

ANTARCTIC

Climate fail : Antarctic sea ice did the exact opposite of what climate experts and their billion dollar, tax-payer funded, climate models predicted …

Australian Antarctic Division battles record ice, considers moving

Screen Shot 2015-05-12 at , May 12, 11.41.18 am

Record Antarctic sea ice is forcing scientists to consider relocating research bases as they struggle to cope.

Satellite observations show a new daily record being set for ­Antarctic sea ice every day for the past two weeks. Annual records have also been broken every year for the past three years.

Rob Wooding, general manager of the Australian Antarctic Division’s Operations Branch, said expanding sea ice was now causing serious problems.

Last year, fuel supplies were flown to Australia’s Mawson base by helicopter because the harbour had failed to clear. Dr Wooding said the situation was “unsustainable”.

He said it was possible for the Aurora Australis icebreaker to break through a certain amount of sea ice to enter the harbour, and the planned capability of a replacement icebreaker would increase the ability to do this.

But conditions experienced last year of thick sea ice, with snow cover, extending out 40 to 50km could not regularly be navigated by any Antarctic resupply vessel.

Screen Shot 2015-05-12 at , May 12, 11.45.40 am

Full article…

There is, in fact, so much Antarctic sea ice that Australia is not only considering moving it’s research bases, but is also currently in a tender process for a new ice breaker !

•••

SNOW FALL PREDICTIONS – Another dud-prediction, climate fail :

The world’s leading climate experts at the IPCC warned this would happen …

15.2.4.1.2.4.

Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms

IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001

•••

TEMPERATURE ~ The biggest dud-prediction of all :

There has been no atmospheric global warming, at all, over the past 18 years, or for over half of the entire satellite record. This inconvenient lack of warming despite 35% of all human CO2 emissions, since 1751, emitted over roughly the same 18 year period.

Since 2002, the lower troposphere, where warming is measured and what global warming theory is based on, has been in fact, on a slight cooling trend.

It’s no wonder the ‘warmist’ fraternity now prefer to use the term “climate change” …

Screen Shot 2015-05-12 at , May 12, 1.32.14 pm

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

BROKEN MODELS

97% of climate models say that 97% of climate experts are wrong, yet these overheated computer models form the entire basis of radical climate policy …

Models running too Hot

97% of climate models say that 97% of climate scientists are wrong | Climatism

•••

UPDATE

Australia Getting Slammed With Cold And Snow

Climatism:

Love it how the alarmist media; ABC, Fairfax, blame Australia’s current record cold winter on this “Antarctic Polar Vortex” a la the “Polar Vortex” in the NH winter just gone (that one actually blamed on “Global Warming”!).

They use the extreme language to reassure the gullible and themselves that really cold winters are freak events, nothing to see here, and you’re all still gonna fry.

Originally posted on Real Science:

In case you were wondering why alarmists aren’t talking about Australia any more. Temperatures are running well below normal, with lots of snow in the mountains.

ScreenHunter_227 Jul. 15 20.1310-Day Temperature Outlook

ScreenHunter_226 Jul. 15 20.06

View original

•••

See also :

The CSIRO Is Telling Us Everything We Need To Snow

•••

RELATED

Antarctica :

Snow :

CSIRO :

Must read Driessen :

Climatism Links :


Warmists Who Denied The Pause Now Claim To Explain It

Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the
equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun
.”
– Prof Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University

Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the
industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsiblity to bring that about
?”
– Maurice Strong,
founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

The Earth has cancer
and the cancer is Man
.”
– Club of Rome,
premier environmental think-tank,
consultants to the United Nations

•••

A “Settled Science” update via Andrew Bolt’s Blog :

Warmists who denied the pause now claim to explain it

I guess just the acknowledgement is progress, but I do think Matthew England at least owes an apology.

Matthew England contradicting former Senator Nick Minchin in April 2012:

NICK MINCHIN: …Basically we’ve had a plateauing of temperature rise. I mean we are in a warming phase. The world is either warming or cooling. It never stops doing nothing. It’s either warming or cooling. We’ve had a warming phase since the end of the little ice age, 150 years ago. In terms of global average temperature it peaked 1998 and it is effectively stable now, despite the increase in CO2. So there is a major problem with the warmist argument because we have had rising CO2 but we haven’t had the commensurate rise in temperature that the IPCC predicted.

ANNA ROSE: That’s just not true, Nick…

MATTHEW ENGLAND: What Nick just said is actually not true. The IPCC projections of 1990 have borne out very accurately…

Matthew England in December 2012:


… we’re halfway through this projected period. And the warming to date is consistent with that [IPCC] projection.

And so anybody out there lying that the IPCC projections are overstatements or that the observations haven’t kept pace with the projections is completely offline with this.  And so anybody out there lying that the IPCC projections are overstatements or that the observations haven’t kept pace with the projections is completely offline with this. The analysis is very clear that the IPCC projections are coming true.

But Matthew England today:

The near two-decade long “pause” in rising average global surface temperatures was a “distraction” that did not change long-term model predictions of a much ­hotter world this century, according to new research.

Climate scientists at University of NSW said “natural variability” could explain the slowdown or “hiatus” despite strongly rising ­levels of carbon ­dioxide in the ­atmosphere…

Research leader Matthew ­England said …  “It is simply due to decadal variability. Greenhouse gases will eventually overwhelm this natural fluctuation,” he said…

“Our research shows that while there may be short-term fluctuations … long-term warming of the planet is an inevitable consequence of ­increasing greenhouse gas concentrations,” he said.

“This much-hyped global warming slowdown is just a distraction to the task at hand”.

Maybe, maybe not. But this concession is interesting:


The paper also suggests that decadal climate oscillations were not pushing heat into the deep oceans, another explanation for the “missing heat” and absence of surface warming.

Also published now in Nature Climate Change, another paper trying to explain the pause that England once denied:

Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming.

•••

UPDATE

via WattsUpWithThat :

Climate modeler Matthew England still ignoring reality – claims IPCC models will eventually win

…On the plus side, at least he acknowledges the existence of “the pause” now, but says it’s irrelevant. Whatever.

Read more here »

•••

See also :


The journal Nature embraces ‘the pause’ and ocean cycles as the cause, Trenberth still betting his heat will show up

Watts Up With That?

From the “settled science” department. It seems even Dr. Kevin Trenberth is now admitting to the cyclic influences of the AMO and PDO on global climate. Neither “carbon” nor “carbon dioxide” is mentioned in this article that cites Trenberth as saying: “The 1997 to ’98 El Niño event was a trigger for the changes in the Pacific, and I think that’s very probably the beginning of the hiatus,”

This is significant, as it represents a coming to terms with “the pause” not only by Nature, but by Trenberth too.

nature_the_pause

Excerpts from the article by Jeff Tollefson:

The biggest mystery in climate science today may have begun, unbeknownst to anybody at the time, with a subtle weakening of the tropical trade winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean in late 1997. These winds normally push sun-baked water towards Indonesia. When they slackened, the warm water sloshed back towards South America, resulting in…

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