Aussie CSIRO Predicts the End of Wheat Yield Gains

Yet again, “Climate Change” fingered as the great demon that causes unending planetary horror.

However, it appears its evil byproducts – modelled heat and CO2 – are in fact increasing, not decreasing wheat crop yields in Australia…

“Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences tips record national crop” (Sep 2016)

http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/australian-bureau-of-agricultural-and-resource-economics-and-sciences-tips-record-national-crop/news-story/ba6d21901a8db0369abcca5b37dd20f2

And their prediction was spot on:

“Australia’s winter grain crop officially a record at 59 million tonnes.” (Feb 2017)

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-14/nrn-record-winter-crop/8268564?pfmredir=sm

What planet do the CSIRO climate-obsessed, doomsday scenario “scientists” live on?

Sounds to me that they live on the ever-forgiving and lucrative planet of horror-scenario computer models providing endless government (taxpayer funded) “climate” research grants…

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to the Australian CSIRO, “The lines will cross” in 20 years, heralding the end of biotechnology’s ability to improve wheat yields.

Climate change to blame for flatlining wheat yield gains: CSIRO

By Anna Vidot

Updated Thu at 11:59am

Australia’s wheat productivity has flatlined as a direct result of climate change, according to CSIRO research.

While 2016 set a new national wheat harvest record, the national science organisation’s findings indicate that result masks a more troubling long-term trend.

While Australian wheat yields tripled between 1900 and 1990, growth stagnated over the following 25 years.

Zvi Hochman, a senior research scientist with CSIRO Agriculture and Food said the team considered whether other factors could have shared the blame, such as investment in research and development (R&D), changing patterns of land use, and soil fertility.

But those could all be ruled out: investment in grains R&D…

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Green Bans “Deindustrialising” Australia

“To underline this insanity, there is actually little evidence of dangerous man-made warming, and even less evidence that anything Australia does to its emissions will make the slightest discernible difference. Nor is there the slightest evidence of real risk from gas fracking, let alone on conventional on-shore gas drilling.

These are fake scares creating huge damage. Once again, the scaremongering is more dangerous than the scare.”

A very important read for the health, wealth and prosperity, not only for Australian society and its environment, but a lesson for the entire world.

This green energy, virtue-signalling insanity must stop.

And to think China and India are opening a new coal-fired power station every week, with thousands in the pipeline. Germany, as well, reverting back to coal after its disastrous €Triliion green-energy experiment “Energiewende” failure.

PA Pundits - International

By Andrew Bolt ~

Green energy and green bans on gas exploration are driving up power prices and killing business. Ten per cent of power generation has already been shut down and the Australian Energy Council now warns we risk “deindustrialising” Australia.

But wasn’t this always the aim of green zealots?:

A decade of political dispute and government paralysis over energy policy is to blame for wholesale electricity prices spiking this year to the equivalent of a $50-a-tonne carbon tax, the power industry warns in a submission to the government’s energy security review.

Warning that the country is facing an investment crisis in new power generation, the submission says that more than 5000 megawatts of generation, representing 10 per cent of national capacity, has been decommissioned since 2012 and is not being replaced…

The [Australian Energy Council] submission to the government’s Independent Review into the Future Security of the Nat­ional…

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California Snowpack 185% of normal, another big snow on the way

From the department of CRU climate expert snow predictions 2000 ❄️…

…..within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said. (Dr David Viner, 2000)

https://climatism.wordpress.com/2017/02/22/the-great-extreme-weather-climate-change-propaganda-con/

Watts Up With That?

From the “California is in a permanent drought due to climate change – because we said so” department comes this good news from NASA, CA DWR, and NOAA

From NASA:

Abundant Snowpack Blankets the Sierra Nevada

March 3, 2017

Snowpack on the Sierra Nevada provides one-third of the water consumed by California citizens, farmers, and businesses each year. For the first time in at least five years, there should be more than enough of it.

According to the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), the water stored as snow in the Sierra Nevada range was 185 percent of the long-term average for the beginning of March. One year ago, it was 83 percent of the norm. According to the latest measurements from 98 ground-based stations, the average snow-water equivalent in the mountains was 45.5 inches as of March 1, 2017. Snow-water equivalent is an estimate of how much…

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The Great “Extreme Weather” Climate Change Propaganda Con

extreme-weather-news1st

The “Extreme Weather” meme has earned its place in climate change history as the fundamental driver of climate scaremongering, used deceptively and effectively to promote the catastrophic man-made climate change theory by instilling fear, doom and gloom directly into the human psyche through simple imagery and repetitive correlation rhetoric.

Even though “weather” is not climate, the daily bombardment via news and multi-media of climatic disaster clips provide more than enough evidence for the casual observer to convince them that the climate is in fact changing as a direct result of human CO2 emissions.

Much of the mainstream media gleefully encourages and promotes the catastrophic man-made warming narrative. Hence, sensationalising a typhoon in the Phillipines or a forest fire in California has become fair-game in the virtuous and IMHO nefarious push to enhance the supposed human CO2-induced climate catastrophe.

However, when you look at hard data and scientific evidence pertaining to extreme weather through the lens of “Government data” and “Peer-Reviewed Science”, as opposed to scary pictures and videos, absorbed via billions of iPhones and hysterical climate-obsessed mainstream media, things are not quite as bad as they seem. In fact, by most metrics, extreme weather events are becoming ‘less’ extreme as CO2 increases. This should come as relieving news to all, though sadly, yet predictably, such data will come as extremely inconvenient news to the virtuous “Save The Planet” lobby and especially those invested in the trillion dollar global warming climate change industry that feeds and thrives off doomsday scenarios.

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Below are listed the more common metrics associated with the much maligned and deceptively ascribed “extreme weather” meme. A term which I would label as a very clever weapon of mass climate propaganda to elevate hysteria, emotions and fear with the ultimate end to mould groupthink belief in human CO2-induced climate change…

HURRICANES

The US is currently experiencing a record 12 year (4,380 days) drought of major landfall hurricanes (Cat3+). The last major hurricane to hit was “Wilma” in 2005:

2016-hurricane-drought.jpg

The major hurricane drought for Category 3 or greater storms continues. Updated December 2016 by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. (via WUWT)

Interesting historical reference point:

NOAA keeps hurricane records back to 1850. The average number of US hurricane strikes per presidency is about eleven. Obama’s presidency had five hurricane strikes, the last being “Matthew” (Cat 1 at landfall, October 8,2016).

Grover Cleveland (1885 – 1889 & 1893 – 1897) and Franklin D Roosevelt (1933 – 1945) both presided over 26 hurricanes, almost six times as many as Obama:

Hurricane count by President.jpg

The presidency of Barack Obama had the lowest frequency of US hurricane strikes of any president:

Hurricane count by President2.gif

Charts via Steve S Goddard – Only updated to 2014

NOAA – Chronological List of All Hurricanes

During Obama’s presidency, atmospheric CO2 levels were between 384-400 ppm. At the time of Grover Cleveland, atmospheric CO2 levels were at 294 ppm. (NASA CO2 Data)

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TORNADOES

Last years tornado season marked the fifth consecutive year of below normal tornado activity in the US:

US Tornadoes.png

NOAA | Storm Prediction Center WCM Page

NOAA

Over the past 55 years there has been a large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes:

ef3-ef5-t_thumb

There has been no trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014:

EF1-EF5-t.png

Historical Records and Trends | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Paul Homewood, of the excellent climate blog NALOPKT, notes that NOAA has not bothered to update Tornado data for 2015/16. “Could it be they would rather the public did not find out the truth?”

Last year may set the record for the least number of Tornadoes on record:

torngraph-big.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

In summary, with an interesting caveat from NOAA:

  • No trend in EF-1+ Tornadoes 1954-2014 tornadoes.
  • Large reduction in frequency of stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.
  • 2016 perhaps a record for the least number of Tornadoes on record.

ALL THIS despite rising CO2 and advanced technologies, including doppler radar and greater attention to reporting – Tornado chasers, increased population etc – which can create “a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency.” – NOAA

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TROPICAL CYCLONES

Jamal Munshi of Sonoma State University published this paper last June, A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity:

ABSTRACT

The ACE index is used to compare tropical cyclone activity worldwide among seven decades from 1945 to 2014. Some increase in tropical cyclone activity is found relative to the earliest decades. No trend is found after the decade 1965-1974. A comparison of the six cyclone basins in the study shows that the Western Pacific Basin is the most active basin and the North Indian Basin the least. The advantages of using a general linear model for trend analysis are described.

Trop Cyclone trends.png

A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity by Jamal Munshi :: SSRN

Again, despite rising CO2, there is no trend in tropical cyclone activity after the decade 1965-1974. With a sharp decline in activity over the past two decades.

AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL CYCLONES

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology graph shows a significant downtrend in all tropical storms, with no discernible trend for severe tropical cyclones:

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at , February 22, 11.52.48 AM.png

Tropical Cyclone Trends | Bureau Of Meteorology

Again, it’s clear from the BoM graph that as CO2 has increased, the frequency and strength of cyclones has decreased.

NB, the (warmist) BoM is still yet to update its cyclone graph from 2011. Are they simply lazy? Have no data since 2011? Or are they trying to hide inconvenient climate data that doesn’t fit the CO2-induced extreme weather narrative? You decide.

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SNOW

Snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.”
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
Dr David VinerSenior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)

Climate change alarmists (experts) use tangible and emotional climatic horror scenarios to scare you into belief. One of the more classic instances of such fear-mongering, gone horribly wrong, was that by Dr David Viner – esteemed climatologist from the UK’s CRU, in 2000.

From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

After over 15 years, the Independent removed that article, and the URL used to come up like this:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past-404.png

It originally read like this:

snowfall-thing-of-the-past Original.png

The original link now boots back to their homepage.

Our friends at WUWT have preserved the entire article as a PDF for posterity:

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – The Independent (PDF)

In fairness, perhaps the good Dr Viner was colluding consulting with the virtuous partners of climate catastrophe expertise, the UN IPCC…

IPCC Less Snow.png

IPCC Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001 – Complete online versions | GRID-Arendal – Publications – Other

Warmer winters IPCC.png

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The (warmist) CSIRO jumped on the “end of snow” bandwagon in August 2003:


Simulations of future snow conditions in the Australian alpine regions were prepared for the years 2020 and 2050…

Conclusion:

The low impact scenario for 2020 has a minor impact on snow conditions. Average season lengths are reduced by around five days. Reductions in peak depths are usually less than 10%, but can be larger at lower sites (e.g. Mt Baw Baw and Wellington High Plains).

The high impact scenario for 2020 leads to reductions of 30-40 days in average season lengths.  At higher sites such as Mt Hotham, this can represent reductions in season duration of about 25%, but at lower sites such as Mt Baw Baw the reduction can be more significant (up to 60%)…

We have very high confidence (at least 95%) that the low impact scenarios will be exceeded and the high impact scenarios will not be exceeded.

In 2014, the New York Times signalled “The End of Snow”:

ScreenHunter_314 Feb. 07 11.00

The End of Snow? – NYTimes.com

BACK TO THE REAL WORLD

2017 Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent was amongst the highest on record last month:

NH Snow extent.png

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

Winter Northern Hemisphere snow extent is trending upwards, despite rising CO2 emissions:

Winter SNow NH.png

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

SNOW EXTENT UPDATE 2017

January snow extent update… 10th highest on record.

“Global Warming”?

Again, as CO2 has increased, NH Snow extent has increased :

Screen Shot 2017-04-02 at , April 2, 4.25.07 PM.png

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

And for Australia’s CSIRO who assured the end of snow by 2020/2030…

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at , February 22, 8.05.58 PM.png

Heavy snow forecast for the Australian Alps despite ski season ending a month ago

Australia’s snowfields have been overdosed by snow over the past 5+ years.

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FLOODS / DROUGHT 

“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007

This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake
.”
– Dr Tim Flannery,
Climate Council

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology 2008:

IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.

“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones….

“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent…”

The Bureau’s David Jones in 2007:

As Jones wrote to the University of East Anglia the year before: “Truth be know, climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone of our cities is on the verge of running out of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse…”

The CSIRO, 2009:

A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change

”It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,” said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal. 

THE REAL WORLD (as of 2016 data)

For the continent of Australia as a whole, there is more rain, not less – and certainly no permanent drought:

aus-rainfall.jpeg

2016:

Winter was Australia’s second wettest on record – just missing out on a new high by a couple of millimetres, leaving many regions already sodden.

“It’s about as wet as it has been in the past 110 years [of records] across Australia,” David Jones, head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.

Floods! Near-record rainfall! When will the head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology (David Jones) explain why his 2008 prediction of a “new climate” of drought turned out so, so wrong?

THE CONSEQUENCES OF PROFESSIONAL CLIMATE ALARMISTS’ DUD-PREDICTIONS

How warmists cost us billions

The price of global warming alarmism is enormous. Take the cost of the mothballed desalination plants, built after warmists persuaded politiciansthe rains would dry up:

Sydney’s privatised desalination plant, which is costing residents more than $500,000 a day to keep on standby, will not be needed for at least another four or five years. The sale of the plant last year to a private company for $2.3 billion means residents are locked into paying about $10 billion in fees for the next 50 years, whether the plant is operating or not. Not one drop of water has come out of the Kurnell facility since it stopped operating more than a year ago. With dam levels at 93.4 per cent, the plant has been placed into “water security” mode, a long-term shutdown which is likely to continue for some time.”My best estimate is it will still be about four to five years before we turn the desalination plant on,” Sydney Water’s managing director Kevin Young told 7.30 New South Wales

Mind you, big cities did need more water security as they grew. Dams were the cheap option, but who made those almost illegal?

How warmists cost us billions | Herald Sun

More: The legacy of Tim Flannery..White elephant desalination plants | Climatism

Australia is now awash with water. Nearly every dam is full. And we are left with x4 mothballed desal plants that cost $12Billion to build and are costing the taxpayer $1million per day (each) under contract until 2030/50.

Unfortunately, the worst Flannery and his climate change alarmist comrades can ever be accused of, for the litany of failed alarmist dud-predictions resulting in massive taxpayer-dollar waste, is an excess of “Save the planet”virtue.

CALIFORNIA

Last September, New York’s Daily News forecast centuries of global warming drought for California:

One of the myriad incorrect assertions by climate-change deniers is that scientists who have proven manmade causes for the current global warming ignore periods of warming in the Earth’s past that were not caused by industrial pollution.

Since it’s essentially, and of course ironically, entirely non-scientists who make this claim, the deniers would do well to read a recent UCLA study that indicates California’s current six-year severe drought could be exacerbated enough by global warming to extend the dry period for centuries.

Five months later the “Permanent” drought is over and the prediction drowned:
California has now seen more moisture in the last 8 weeks than it typically does in an entire year… San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and several other cities have recorded one of their wettest Januarys on record and an incredibly wet 8 weeks overall.

And for those who desire to claim the recent California floods are “unprecedented” and “extreme”, the below graph shows that inflow to Oroville so far this year is far from unprecedented, with a much greater total in 1997.

oroville_inflow_1995-2017feb_620.png

And we can see from the state rainfall totals that January 2017 was nothing special:

Orville Precip.png

HISTORICAL DROUGHT PERSPECTIVE

USA drought during the low-CO2 1930’s:

conus_palmerindex_june_1934.png

USA drought during 400ppm “unprecedented”-CO2 levels of 2017:

Drought USA 2017.png

Drought – January 2017 | State of the Climate | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

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For the next few “Extreme Weather/Climate” categories, feel free to click on the links to read government data and peer-reviewed science sourced to unfold any concern(s) you may have…

HEATWAVES

Shock news : Australia has always had heatwaves | Climatism

SEA LEVEL RISE

NASA “Sea Level Rise” Fraud | Climatism

44th Pacific “Sinking Islands” Extortion Forum (COP21 Update 2015) | Climatism

If Sea Level Rise were such a threat, ask yourself one simple Q: Why would Barack Hussein Obama (spruiker-in-chief of climate change alarmism) purchase the Hawaii seaside mansion where Magnum PI was filmed?

While warning us of ‘rising oceans’ in SOTU, did Obama just buy a beachfront mansion? | Watts Up With That?

Maybe its because, outside of his eco-pantheist ideology and Leftist, wealth redistribution agenda, Obama too, knows very well that Islands like Hawaii “Shape-shift” i.e. they grow with Sea Level Rise. In fact, 80% of Island nations around the world are growing, not “Sinking” as climate activists and alarmists will have you believe.

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RECENT “EXTREME WEATHER” RELATED SCIENTIFIC STUDIES

China’s not so extreme weather study:

China’s weather now better

The biggest study of China’s extreme weather finds the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has actually halved since 1960.

In one of the most comprehensive studies on trends in local severe weather patterns to date, an international team of researchers found that the frequency of hail storms, thunderstorms and high wind events has decreased by nearly 50 percent on average throughout China since 1960…

“Most of the data published on trends in severe weather has been incomplete or collected for a limited short period,” said Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology and atmospheric science and director, Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, Penn State. “The record we used is, to the best of our knowledge, the largest, both in time scale and area of land covered.”

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/global-warming-helps-chinas-weather-now-better/news-story/12b5c26ab1a5f27fffc3b416f95cee7c

When will warmist scientists admit the apocalypse they predicted simply isn’t coming?

Oh and just as a side, Al Gore’s “Extreme Weather” poster child sufferers – POLAR BEARS – are doing more than fine…as CO2 rises!

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If we rely on the above scientific hard data and peer-reviewed evidence, it should hopefully become clearer that colourless, odourless, plant food and trace gas CO2 – the gas of life – does not control the climate or the weather.

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In my opinion if the temperature gradient between the polar regions and tropics were to increase because of polar cooling, expect to see more and genuine extreme weather occurrences. Ergo, has slight global warming since the 1970’s actually decreased the frequency and strength of extreme weather events? The above evidence strongly supports this case. Especially in the case of Northern Hemisphere Hurricanes, Tornadoes and drought.

Ironically and to this point, in 1974 climatologists blamed extreme weather on “Global Cooling”.

The panic was so real during the “Global Cooling” scare of the 1970’s that UN scientists wanted to melt the Arctic by spreading black soot on it!

Arctic UN Black soot.jpg

02 Feb 1972 – Scientists fear for Arctic Sea ice – Trove

And today, the UN, all those expert climatologists and their sycophant media gleefully blame any extreme weather event, not on “global cooling” but now “global warming”. Nuff said.

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TO FINISH. A message, in their own words, from the promulgators of climate change fear, doom and gloom – the UN’s very own IPCC …

Direct from their IPCC SREX report released 2012 :

We Do Not Know If The Climate Is Becoming More Extreme

•••

Recommended / Related :


TIM FLANNERY – Epitome Of The Climate Scam

tim-flannery

Source : Herald Sun

“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007

This planet is on course for a catastrophe.
The existence of Life itself is at stake
.”
– Dr Tim Flannery,
Climate Council

•••

YET ANOTHER dud-prediction realised from Global Warming Climate Change alarmist extraordinaire, Tim Flannery.

WHEN will he be, literally, put in the dock for crimes against climate/science truths, costing taxpayers literally $Billions in dud-predictions with his insane litany of ideologically driven climate falsehoods?!

From The Herald Sun’s Andrew Bolt:


The Guardian’s “100 Months To Save The World” – Part II

Detailed demolition of the Guardian’s alarmist propaganda piece 8 years ago, “100 Months To Save The World” ….

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/aug/01/climatechange.carbonemissions

According to the Guardian’s Andrew Simms, we are two months away from reaching a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change.

So, how much has the world’s climate changed since 2008?

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Understanding Natural Variability

Real Science

Humans don’t have much control over the climate outside of their living room, so all large scale climate changes are natural variability

This entire climate conversation is a bunch of contrived BS, with idiotic words like “forcing”  We don’t push the climate around, the climate pushes us.

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