Global Warming Bombshell : Science Magazine Article Blows The Whistle On Climate Model Failure

“When the heart rules the head,
passion takes over reason.”

– Ortega y Gasset

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know,
it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.”
– Mark Twain

“Blind trust in authority
is the greatest enemy of the truth.”

– Albert Einstein

“It’s like the boy who repeatedly cried wolf.
If I observe many successive forecast failures,
I may be unwilling to take future forecasts seriously.

– David C. Rode et al, Apocalypse now Communicating extreme forecasts, International Journal of Global Warming (2021)

“The ‘problem’ is not only that all of the expired forecasts were wrong,
but also that so many of them never
admitted to any uncertainty about the date.”

– David C. Rode et al, Apocalypse now Communicating extreme forecasts, International Journal of Global Warming (2021)

•••

Take a bow, climate realists!

They – the scientific ‘experts’, power-obsessed politicians, globalist elites, the useful idiots, and the UNreliables grifters were wrong, while you were right, all along.

The world recently witnessed how alarmist, Imperial College COVID-19 model predictions inspired mass-global-hysteria, leading to overreaching and draconian (global) government ‘health’ edicts with the resulting economic, social and mental health fallout arguably far worse than the disease itself.

Now, the world is finally being told the truth about the 32+ “cooked” UN IPCC climate models that have single-handedly driven the most egregious and costly pseudoscientific campaign of fear and alarmism ever perpetrated upon mankind.

Misguided climate hysteria that has failed time-and-time-again to match real-world evidence and observed data.

Relentless mainstream-media-driven hysteria, based on biased UN model predictions, has fuelled a relentless tidal wave of unhinged activism, devouring; every last respectable public institution, otherwise intelligent minds, and worst of all, the taxpayer’s hard-earned-money at a rate of 1.4 trillion dollars per year, or 4.5 billion dollars per day, according to a 2015 article by Climate Change Journal.

However, have cooler heads finally prevailed from, of all places, the head of the most ‘revered’ and influential of all the many taxpayer funded ‘climate’ institutions?

This weeks bombshell climate-model-mea-culpa delivered by none other than the head of NASA (GISS) Climate, Gavin Schmidt, a chief architect of global-climate-alarmism. 

Read it and weep, climate crazies.

(Climatism bolds)

Leading climate scientists conceded that models used to estimate how much the world will warm with rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are running too hot.

“It’s become clear over the last year or so that we can’t avoid this,” Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told Science ­magazine.

The admission is seen as a significant development by scientists who argue that not enough attention has been paid to natural ­cycles in the earth’s climate.

It puts another question mark over the use of the most extreme scenarios generated by models, RCP8.5, to estimate what could be expected in a warming world.

The concession has been made on the eve of this month’s release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report on the science of climate change.

That report, delayed a year ­because of Covid-19, is due to be released on Aug­ust 9 and will outline what can be expected with different levels of warming.

It will play a major role in ­preparations for the upcoming ­climate change summit in ­Glasgow, Scotland, in November.

A Science article published this week said climate scientists faced the alarming reality that “climate models that help them project the future have grown a little too alarmist”.

“Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, ­including the model makers themselves, believe are implausibly fast”, the article said.

“In advance of the UN report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models, which in other respects are more powerful and trustworthy than their predecessors, into useful guidance for policymakers.”

In the past, most models projected a “climate sensitivity” – the warming expected when atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled over pre-industrial times – of ­between 2C and 4.5C.

Last year, a landmark paper that used documented factors including ongoing warming trends calculated a likely climate sensitivity of between 2.6C and 3.9C but many of the new models from leading centres showed warming of more than 5C – uncomfortably outside these bounds.

The models were also out of step with records of past climate.

According to Science, the IPCC team will probably use ­reality – the actual warming of the world over the past few decades – to constrain model projections.

The IPCC report is also likely to present the impacts of different amounts of warming – 2C, 3C, 4C – rather than saying how quickly those impacts will be felt.

Steve Sherwood from the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre said “while it is true some new climate models have surprising climate sensitivities and predict very high future warming, what doesn’t always come through is that most new models have sensitivity values within the range estimated from observations”.

“Those models still predict substantial future weather and climate changes due to carbon dioxide, similar to predictions made by the science community for many years,” Professor Sherwood said.

US climate scientist Judith Curry said the IPCC report would certainly discuss the problem with climate models: “The elephant in the room for the IPCC is they are heavily relying on RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, which are now widely regarded as implausible.”

Michael Asten, an expert reviewer of the IPCC’s AR6 report, said the admission that climate models were running hot was a significant concession.

GRAHAM LLOYD

ENVIRONMENT EDITOR

Graham Lloyd is a fearless reporter of all sides of the environment debate. A former night editor, chief editorial writer and deputy business editor with The Australian, Graham has held senior positions nationa… Read more

Via : Climate change: Science magazine article blows the whistle on model failure | The Australian

•••

See also :

Related :

CO2 Related :

SUN Related :


THE Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Scam

the climate change scam - climatism

THE Climate Change Scam : Death By GIF | CLIMATISM


“Kevin and I will keep [skeptic papers] out [of IPCC] somehow –
even if we have to redefine what peer-review literature is.”
Phil Jones to Michael Mann | Climategate Emails

“As you know, I’m not political. If anything, I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This isn’t being political, it is being selfish.” – Phil Jones (Uni East Anglia CRU Head) 

The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

“As we all know, this isn’t about truth at all,
it’s about plausibly deniable accusations.”
– Michael Mann (Climategate Emails)

***

THE “Hottest Year Ever” meme is just one in a long line of propaganda tools used by the Climate Crisis Industry to make you believe that the 1°C rise in global temperature since the end of the Little Ice Age – around 1880 – is “unprecedented” and will bring chaos to wildlife, humans and the planet.

HOW much of these claims are scientific, versus propaganda designed to heighten alarm around the agenda of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW), is the centre of much conjecture and debate.

OF particular concern is how a handful of government climate ‘scientists’ have ‘homogenised’ the official surface-based temperature records to land us in the costly, hot mess we face today.

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SATELLITES Vs THERMOMETERS?

satellite-v-thermometer-628x353

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ATMOSPHERIC SATELLITES

NASA’s 15 MSU and AMSU satellites generate the RSS and UAH datasets, which measure the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower troposphere, the exact place where global warming climate change theory is meant to occur.

BEFORE 2016, UAH and RSS both tracked closely showing very little warming in their data sets which led to the identification and validation of “the pause” in global warming which has since become the subject of much research and debate in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

From the RSS website:

“The simulation as a whole are predicting too much warming” – RSS

HOWEVER, by 2016, Carl Mears, chief scientist for RSS (Remote Sensing Systems) decided that the lengthy and inconvenient global warming “pause” or “hiatus” was not a good look for the global warming narrative, so RSS was adjusted upwards, eliminating “the pause”.

Differences between the old version and new version of RSS:

MEARS’ objectivity towards the business of global temperature data collection and reporting can be found in his commentary on his website, whilst making his global-warmist intentions clear by unleashing the groupthink pejorative “denialist” – in distasteful reference to NAZI holocaust denial…

MEARS then published a paper claiming that new and improved ‘adjustments’ had “found” that missing warming.

Mears, C., and F. Wentz, 2016: Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric
temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment. J. Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLID-
15-0744.1, in press.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0744.1?af=R

(Data and graphs via WUWT)

*

UAH NASA SATELLITE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

FOR the purpose of this post, we’ll look at the untampered UAH (University Alabama Huntsville) satellite data set run by Dr. John R. Christy – Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, and Roy Spencer Ph.D. – Principal Research Scientist at UAH.

SPENCER comments on the divergence between RSS and UAH post “adjustment”:

“We have a paper in peer review with extensive satellite dataset comparisons to many balloon datasets and reanalyses. These show that RSS diverges from these and from UAH, showing more warming than the other datasets between 1990 and 2002 – a key period with two older MSU sensors both of which showed signs of spurious warming not yet addressed by RSS. I suspect the next chapter in this saga is that the remaining radiosonde datasets that still do not show substantial warming will be the next to be “adjusted” upward.

The bottom line is that we still trust our methodology. But no satellite dataset is perfect, there are uncertainties in all of the adjustments, as well as legitimate differences of opinion regarding how they should be handled.

Also, as mentioned at the outset, both RSS and UAH lower tropospheric trends are considerably below the average trends from the climate models.

And that is the most important point to be made.”

Comments on the New RSS Lower Tropospheric Temperature Dataset « Roy Spencer, PhD

(Climatism bolds)

*

DECEMBER 2018 UAH TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

GLOBAL atmospheric temperatures continue their rapid decline off the record heights of the 2015/16 super El Niño, despite record and rising CO2 emissions.

UAH global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December, 2018 was +0.25°C above the 40-year average:

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RECORD 2-YEAR GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DROP (HadCRUT4)

GLOBAL temperature dropped by a record 0.4°C in three years according to U.K. HadCRUT4 temperature data set:

DELLERS with the details :

Earth in ‘Greatest Two-Year Cooling Event in a Century’ Shock

Our planet has just experienced the most extreme two-year cooling event in a century. But where have you seen this reported anywhere in the mainstream media?

You haven’t, even though the figures are pretty spectacular. As Aaron Brown reports hereat Real Clear Markets:

From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era. All the data in this essay come from GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). This is the standard source used in most journalistic reporting of global average temperatures.

The 2016-18 Big Chill was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average. February 2018 was colder than February 1998.

To put this temperature drop in context, consider that this is enough to offset by more than half the entirety of the global warming the planet has experienced since the end of the 19th century.

Read the rest on Breitbart.

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LAND-BASED THERMOMETERS

NASA GLOBAL LAND & OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

Global Mean Estimates based on Land and Ocean Data:

*

NASA LAND & OCEAN TEMP DATA OBSERVATIONS :

THE 20 year global warming “Pause” has been well and truly wiped from the NASA GISS temperature record. AS has the record 2-year temperature drop, post 2015/16 El Niño – according to NASA GISS data.

BY their own admission, the ocean data is also fake.

date: Wed Apr 15 14:29:03 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk> subject: Re: Fwd: Re: contribution to RealClimate.org
to: Thomas Crowley <thomas.crowley@ed.ac.uk>

Tom,

The issue Ray alludes to is that in addition to the issue
of many more drifters providing measurements over the last
5-10 years, the measurements are coming in from places where
we didn’t have much ship data in the past. For much of the SH between 40 and 60S the normals are mostly made up as there is very little ship data there.

Cheers
Phil

di2.nu/foia/foia2011/mail/2729.txt

***

CLIMATE CHANGE DATA FRAUD : Death By Gif(s)

“HE who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.” – George Orwell

*

NOW it’s time to see how NASA GISS (Gavin Schmidt) and NOAA (Tom Karl) have created the ‘hockey-stick’ temperature rise over recent years in order to drive the Mann-made global warming agenda.

MIND-blowing adjustments to raw data that without exception – cool the past and warm the present – despite UHI (Urban Heat Island effect) undoubtedly compromising the latter parts of the modern temp record.

AND, if you think that the tampering of the earth’s temperature record, by cooling the past and warming the present to fit the man-made global warming narrative is another climate “denier” conspiracy theory then read this Climategate email from the UK’s leading climate expert, Phil Jones, to the UK Met Office and officials:

screenhunter_400-feb-09-04-21

GLOBAL WARMING Is The Greatest And Most Successful Pseudoscientific Fraud In History | Climatism

THE problem of the 1940’s warming “blip” :

screenhunter_303-feb-07-09-19

THEY did exactly what Wigley was suggesting, removing more than 0.15 C from 1940′s global temperatures. This tampering is what made the hockey stick possible.

If the present refuses to get warmer, then the past must become cooler …

 

 

*

U.S. TEMPERATURE RECORD

THE lack of US warming wrecks global warming theory, so NOAA and NASA reduced the “1940’s Blip” in the US record to create fake warming:

NOAA knows perfectly well that the US is not warming:

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GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECORD

NASA has doubled global warming since 2001:

2015-12-07-05-47-371

NASA Global Temperature ‘Adjustments’

gissfiga2changes-sept2005-march2015-sept2015_2aaa

NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature ‘Adjustments’

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“HOTTEST YEAR EVAHH”

NASA make up record temperatures in countries where they have no thermometer data. NOAA’s current data in Africa and much of the rest of the world is fake.

THIS enables them to make the fake “Hottest Year Ever” announcements. Memes that have more to do with PR and marketing than actual science:

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ERASING “THE BLIP” – VARIOUS LOCATIONS

Changes to GISS Iceland temperatures between V2 and V3

ReykjavikGISS2012-2013vestmannaeyjaAliceSpringsGISS2012-2014PuertoCasado

NASA didn’t like the 1940’s warmth in Greenland, so they simply made it disappear:

nuuk-2011-2016

((SEE more extreme examples of NASA / NOAA temperature data fraud at Tony Heller’s superb resource: The Deplorable Climate Science Blog | “Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” – Richard Feynman))

(Charts via Tony Heller “Real Climate Science”)

*

UPDATE

THE NASA global temperature record has been massively altered over the last 20 years to cool the past and warm the present:

dwesomrvaaakixx

Steve Goddard on Twitter: “The @NASA global temperature record has been massively altered over the last 20 years to cool the past and warm the present.…”

*

NASA GISS : THE DATA SET OF CHOICE FOR THE CLIMATE THEORY OBSESSED MAINSTREAM MEDIA & POLITICAL ELITE!

IT’s not difficult to see why the NASA GISS data set is the preferred go-to for global warming activists, mainstream media, the UN IPCC and virtue-peddling politicians seeking to destroy cheap, efficient energy supply – namely coal-fired power – through the implementation of draconian climate change policy, and proposals like the U.S. Democrats’ “New Green Deal”, that if implemented will annihilate both the U.S. and the global economy and result in total control of every aspect of your life, lifestyle and any freedoms you currently enjoy.

NASA GISS’ Gavin Schmidt wants to use his junk science to control public policy, and says questions from policy makers are “tiresome” :

*

PRESIDENT EISENHOWER WARNED US OF THE danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

“The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present — and is gravely to be regarded.

Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

President Eisenhower   January 17, 1961

*

CONCLUSION

FOR so long, climate ‘sceptics’ have been labeled climate/science “deniers”, in crude reference to those who deny the holocaust, with the pejorative used in a broader effort to shut down debate and silence dissent. However, when hard evidence is laid out over alarmist rhetoric, it’s not hard to see who in fact are the real deniers of history and indeed, deniers of science.

EVEN when hard data, “the science” and empirical evidence completely contradict alarmist predictions and forecasts peddled by the mainstream media and grant-driven ‘scientists’, alarmists continue to double-down on their fear-mongering instead of evaluating their theory, adhering to the “scientific method” and admitting that they might just have got it all wrong.

*

GLOBAL WARMING dogma has ruinously snowballed into a $TRILLION dollar religion to be defended at all costs by alarmist ‘scientists’, UNreliables rent-seekers and the climate theory-obsessed mainstream media in order to protect egos, jobs, reputations and access to unlimited “Save The Planet” taxpayer trillions, completely immune to oversight.

THIS is not ‘science’, it is zealotry run amok.

IT’S time to count the shocking price we’ve paid for listening to global warming scaremongers like Tim Flannery and NASA fraudster Gavin Schmidt.

SEE now what their panic-making has inspired – global warming schemes that have hurt us infinitely more than any slight global warming could ever do.

IT has been estimated that globally, warmists burn collectively more than a $BILLION dollars a day. But, what are we trying to stop, anyway? Recent scientific papers confirm there’s been much less warming over the past two decades than predicted …

*

TIME to stop the rot for the sake of “science” and Western civilisation that has given us so much to be thankful for, like the dramatic drop in global poverty. Primarily due to the deployment of cheap, reliable and abundant hydrocarbon fuels. Life-giving and poverty-reducing energy sources that the zero-emissions zealots want to replace with sunshine and breezes, forcing us backwards down the energy ladder to the days of human, animal and solar power.

*

JUST as socialist central planning failed miserably before it was replaced by free market economies, green central planning will have to be discarded before Australia and other Western nations, crippled by the mad rush into costly and ruinous UNreliables, will see a return to energy security, competitive pricing and a ‘liveable’ existence for our most vulnerable.

LIKEWISE, climate data fraud must be called out and crushed with the scientific method restored to allay dangerous and costly climate change fear and alarmism.

 •••

SEE also :

Read the rest of this entry »


GLOBAL TEMPERATURE PLUNGE : Coolest September In The Last 10 Years


We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
Fmr President of the UN Foundation

***

GLOBAL atmospheric temperatures continue their rapid decline off the record heights of the 2016 super El Niño, despite record and rising CO2 emissions.

UAH global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2018 was +0.14°C, down from +0.19°C in August:

Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures

Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The intensity of the signals these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies is directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere. Every month, John Christy and I update global temperature datasets that represent the piecing together of the temperature data from a total of fifteen instruments flying on different satellites over the years. A discussion of the latest version (6.0) of the dataset is located here.

The graph above represents the latest update; updates are usually made within the first week of every month. Contrary to some reports, the satellite measurements are not calibrated in any way with the global surface-based thermometer records of temperature. They instead use their own on-board precision redundant platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) calibrated to a laboratory reference standard before launch.

Latest Global Temps « Roy Spencer, PhD

 

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THE September anomaly represents a 0.72°C drop since 2016 super El Niño heights, bringing temps down now to ~1988 levels.

DON’T expect the mainstream media to report in this anytime soon. They are only concerned about hot and climbing temperatures to push their  global warming climate change agenda.

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CO2 CONCENTRATION Vs TEMPS – Correlation?

 

CO2 Vs Temp Correlation 1979 - SEP 2018 - CLIMATISM

CO2 Vs Temp Correlation 1979 – SEP 2018 – CLIMATISM

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GLOBAL TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS – You Be The Judge!

Satellites Vs Land-Based Thermometers?

satellite-v-thermometer-628x353

Satellites Vs Thermometers?

SATELLITES

NASA’s MSU satellite measurement systems, generate the RSS and UAH datasets, which measure the average temperature of every cubic inch of the lower atmosphere, the exact place where global warming theory is meant to occur.

BEFORE 2016, UAH and RSS both tracked closely showing very little warming in their data sets which led to the identification and validation of “the pause” in global warming which has since become the subject of much research and debate in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

From the RSS website:

“The simulation as a whole are predicting too much warming” – RSS

HOWEVER, by 2016, Carl Mears, who is the chief scientist for RSS (Remote Sensing Systems) and who has used the pejorative “denialist” in various correspondence, decided that “the pause” was not a good look for the global warming narrative so RSS was massively adjusted upwards, conveniently eliminating “the pause” in the RSS dataset.

MEARS’ objectivity towards the business of global temperature data collection and reporting can be found in his commentary on his website:

MEARS then published a paper claiming that new and improved adjustments have “found” that missing warming.

Mears, C., and F. Wentz, 2016: Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric
temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment. J. Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLID-
15-0744.1, in press.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0744.1?af=R

THE result…
Differences between the old version and new version of RSS:

(Data via WUWT)

*

UAH NASA SATELLITE (Featured)

UAH is the satellite data set featured in this post and is jointly run by Dr. John R. Christy –  Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. And Roy Spencer Ph.D. Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

SPENCER commentary on the divergence between RSS and UAH post “adjustment”:

“We have a paper in peer review with extensive satellite dataset comparisons to many balloon datasets and reanalyses. These show that RSS diverges from these and from UAH, showing more warming than the other datasets between 1990 and 2002 – a key period with two older MSU sensors both of which showed signs of spurious warming not yet addressed by RSS. I suspect the next chapter in this saga is that the remaining radiosonde datasets that still do not show substantial warming will be the next to be “adjusted” upward.

The bottom line is that we still trust our methodology. But no satellite dataset is perfect, there are uncertainties in all of the adjustments, as well as legitimate differences of opinion regarding how they should be handled.

Also, as mentioned at the outset, both RSS and UAH lower tropospheric trends are considerably below the average trends from the climate models.

And that is the most important point to be made.”

Comments on the New RSS Lower Tropospheric Temperature Dataset « Roy Spencer, PhD

(Climatism bolds)

* Read the rest of this entry »


ALL Warming In NSW And Victoria Is Due To UHI

Real Science

I did a survey of the ten oldest stations in New South Wales And Victoria, circled below. Three rural stations were not included because of obvious problems with the data, but none showed any warming.

MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE              ASN00086071
DENILIQUIN (WILKINSON ST)              ASN00074128
BATHURST GAOL                          ASN00063004
SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL)              ASN00066062
CAPE OTWAY LIGHTHOUSE          GSN     ASN00090015
BOURKE POST OFFICE                     ASN00048013
WAGGA WAGGA (KOORINGAL)                ASN00072151
FORBES (CAMP STREET)                   ASN00065016
INVERELL COMPARISON                    ASN00056017
GUNNEDAH POOL                          ASN00055023

ScreenHunter_3589 Oct. 11 08.55

The two urban stations at Melbourne and Sydney both showed strong warming, and both have disastrously poor siting of their thermometers in the middle of large cities.

ScreenHunter_3552 Oct. 11 07.59ScreenHunter_3566 Oct. 11 08.22

By contrast, all of the rural stations show a long term cooling trend, with some recent warming. (Note that there is no data for the most recent years with some of the rural stations.)

ScreenHunter_3563 Oct. 11 08.17ScreenHunter_3558 Oct. 11 08.11

ScreenHunter_3570 Oct. 11 08.28 ScreenHunter_3574 Oct. 11 08.34

ScreenHunter_3582 Oct. 11 08.47

The only conclusion which can be derived from this is that Australia has not warmed long-term…

View original post 27 more words