“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.“ – TimothyWirth, President of the UN Foundation
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony… climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.” – Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment
Another inconvenient scientific study contesting “settled science” theology that carbon dioxide is the ‘climate control knob’.
Japanese climate scientists arguing that they have been able to show that El Niño natural weather oscillations have driven “atmospheric teleconnection” and shifted the tropical rainfall zone to the north. The higher warming up to 2012 was “accelerated” by heat from the Pacific and a phase in the North Atlantic sea current oscillation that favoured warmer conditions over Greenland and enhanced ice melt…
A popular scare story running in the media is that the Greenland ice sheet is about to slip its moorings under ferocious and unprecedented Arctic heat and arrive in the reader’s front room any day now (I exaggerate, but not much). Meanwhile back in the scientific world, scientists are scrambling to understand what natural causes lie behind the sudden slow-down in Greenland’s summer warming and ice loss dating back to 2010. The recovery of Arctic summer sea ice has been spectacular of late, with the U.S.-based National Snow and Ice Data Center reporting that this year’s September minimum was 1.28 million square kilometres higher than the 2012 low point of 3.39 million square kilometres.
Three Japanese climatologists have recently published a paper noting that “frequent occurrence of central Pacific El Niño events has played a key role in the [abrupt] slow-down of Greenland warming and possibly Arctic sea ice loss”. Of course such findings play havoc with the simplistic ‘settled’ science notion that carbon dioxide produced by humans burning fossil fuel is the main, if not only, driver of global temperature warming or cooling – a notion that leads many green activists to claim that the climate will stop changing if society signs on to a ‘Net Zero’ CO2 emissions agenda.
For instance, a bizarre ‘fact check’ on a recently published Daily Sceptic article by Facebook partner Climate Feedback claimed there had been no natural climate change for almost 200 years. It quoted Professor Timothy Osborn of the University of East Anglia, who said: “The warming from the late 1800s to the present is all due to human-caused climate change, because natural factors have changed little since then, and even would have caused a slight cooling over the last 70 years rather than the warming we have observed.”
The Japanese scientists argue that they have been able to show that El Niño natural weather oscillations have driven “atmospheric teleconnection” and shifted the tropical rainfall zone to the north. The higher warming up to 2012 was “accelerated” by heat from the Pacific and a phase in the North Atlantic sea current oscillation that favoured warmer conditions over Greenland and enhanced ice melt. Changes around Greenland can be attributed to “natural variability, rather than anthropogenic forcing”, note the scientists, “although most climate models were unable to reasonably simulate the unforced natural variability over Greenland”.
What the scientists are talking about of course are the huge heat exchanges that regularly change the climate of the Earth. As the Daily Scepticrecently reported, Professor Richard Lindzen of MIT noted that the Earth had many climate regimes, and there have been “profound” changes in temperature between the tropics and the polar regions over millennia. Meteorologist William Kininmonth recently argued that the heat exchanges were little understood, but they are one of the great drivers of climate changes. It might be suggested that these gaps in climate knowledge have allowed a view to take hold, now enforced by rigid Net Zero political control, that CO2 is the only driver of climate change.
The Daily Scepticrecently reported on a series of media scare stories about the Greenland ice sheet that followed publication of a paper in Nature Climate Change. Cherry-picking the one-off record melt year of 2012, and assuming it will be a regular occurrence, delivered a “staggering” 78cm of sea level rise between now and 2100. According to the U.S. meteorologist Anthony Watts, the claims were “false and easily disproved”. In his view they were “just modelled hokum”.
Ice amounts around the Arctic have always been highly cyclical, with periods of substantial melt and freezing common across just a few decades. As we have seen, evidence is starting to build that a recent Arctic low point is in a period of recovery, with a significant trend towards higher surface sea ice becoming apparent from the recent data.
To preserve the fiction that humans are responsible for all recent changes in the climate, it is often argued that the current temperature is the highest for 12,000 years, since the last major ice age started to lift. This is political nonsense-on-stilts, not least because geologists have a phrase for the period when temperatures were much higher than today – the Holocene Thermal Maximum. The latest science paper to show significant higher temperatures comes from a group of geoscientists led by Dr. Katrine Elnegaard Hansen of Aarhus University. According to a précis published by the No Tricks Zone climate site, the Arctic and northern Greenland were 2-4°C warmer than now between 11,700 to 4,500 years ago. Carbon dioxide levels were in the mid 200 parts per million (ppm), compared to today’s 419 ppm, ice-free open waters prevailed, and Greenland warmed 10°C in just 60 years.
Numerous other scientists have discovered equally dramatic temperature changes in the recent past. The graph below was presented by a German broadcaster in 2013 and was compiled from a number of science sources. It shows the overall long-term trend, ending in the current small rebound from the so-called little ice age,
But cyclical changes have also occurred over very short periods. A number of scientists have pointed to an abrupt global multiple degree cooling and warming period that occurred about 8,200 years ago over 150 years. Dr. Takuro Kobashi examined the paleoclimatic records from this time and found a drop of 3°C within two decades, followed by a similar rise over 70 years. Dr. Seren Griffiths of Manchester Met University reported that the event was first identified in Greenland ice cores, but subsequently noted in multiple proxies across Europe. Another abrupt cooling period is said to have occurred about 4,000 years ago.
It is legitimate to conclude from all this under-reported science that it is becoming increasingly difficult to ask us to believe that CO2, and more specifically human-caused CO2, is the only or main climate control thermostat. The evidence suggests that the gas played no such starring role in the previous 11,000 years and more of the paleoclimatic record.
Chris Morrison isthe Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
I came across the Statista website a while ago, as it had some useful graphics at the time, so I am now on their email address list. Each day they send a couple of random charts, with the hope I might subscribe!
They certainly seem a reliable outfit and offer a wide variety of stats, but today I received this from them:
Rinks Glacier, West Greenland [image credit: NSIDC] However this is interpreted, ‘sixth highest on record’ doesn’t quite support the ‘rapid melting’ story so beloved of man-made climate alarm believers. It looks a lot more like natural variability, as the report suggests.
It’s time for the Greenland ice sheet’s annual health report, brought to you by scientists from the Danish Meteorological Institute and Polar Portal.
The end of August traditionally marks the end of the melt season for the Greenland ice sheet as it shifts from mostly melting to mostly gaining snow, says ScienceNordic.
“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.“
– TimothyWirth,
President of the UN Foundation
“The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
***
CHALLENGING times ahead for the Climate Crisis Industry with another icon of Armageddon – Greenland – defying climate model forecasts and the usual swill of dire prognostications from the mainstream media.
CNN recently published an Uber-sexy photographic essay on the great ice continent, “What it’s like at the ground zero of climate change”.
THE photographs are incredible and well worth a look. The written content, definitely not up to the same standard. Shock news. CNN’s Kyle Almond, flooding the story with the same emotional, hyper-alarmist AGW talking points that aren’t matching, anymore, what’s really going on at “ground zero”, according to the latest hard data from NSIDC and DMI.
THE main thrust of the piece is of calving glaciers.
“It’s not easy to photograph climate change, a slow, subtle process that develops over time.
But when a glacier breaks up, the images can be breathtaking — and a sobering reminder of the trouble we are in.”
MEMO to Kyle: Glacier calving is an entirely natural process, reflecting the very health of a glacier. The more snow that falls, the more icebergs come out the other end!
Many glaciers terminate at oceans or freshwater lakes which results naturally[5] with the calving of large numbers of icebergs. Calving of Greenland‘s glaciers produce 12,000 to 15,000 icebergs each year alone.[6]
ELLA Gilbert from the British Antarctic Survey who is often asked why icebergs break away…
“It’s complicated,” she explains. “The region is clearly undergoing a lot of change but you can’t just say ‘it was the climate’. Iceberg calving is a natural process anyway. If you put more snow in at one end, it has to come out the other end as icebergs.”
Summer is over, and Greenland’s surface has gained 510 billion tons of ice over the past year – about 40% above normal. The surface mass budget is snow/ice accumulation minus melt. It does not include ice loss caused by glaciers flowing to the sea, which is very difficult to measure, and is driven by processes which have little to do with the current climate.
The trajectories were very different last year and this year, but the final result was about the same.
Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI (2017/18)
Lining the two graphs up side by side, you can see the more than one trillion tons of ice which Greenland’s surface has gained over the past two years.
Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI (Split)
THE NYtimes, like most of their news, deploys the worst form of propaganda ‘bias by omission’ by leaving out of their Dec 5 report – net mass input to the Greenland ice sheet.
THERE is no acceleration in global sea level rise, proving their phoney junk science as more deliberate propaganda.
WHAT other lies, falsehoods and deceptions do the mainstream media tell you about global warming climate change in order to push their costly and dangerous fake scare?
WHO now are the real climate and science “deniers”?
(Climate sceptics/rationalists still waitin’ for that “big oil” cheque to arrive in the mail!)
Help us to hit back against the bombardment of climate lies costing our communities, economies and livelihoods far, far too much.
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“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.“
– TimothyWirth,
President of the UN Foundation
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment
***
LITTLE gem of a read by Harry Wilkinson on the condition of the Polar Ice Caps and the overtly propagandised meltdown hysteria promulgated by alarmist ‘scientists’ and their government institutions, gleefully pimped out by the ever-compliant global warming theory-obsessed mainstream media.
WILKINSON lays out basic empirical facts that shamelessly contradict the repetitive “Death Spiral” moans from climate and Arctic experts alarmists.
THE piece is a welcome reminder to be cautious of the selective bias that the mainstream media is willing to share with you on all things global warming climate change:
“These facts get little coverage because they don’t sound alarming at all, and for most reporters that means they’re not news. These ‘inconvenient truths’ are nonetheless a helpful reminder that climate change coverage should be taken with a healthy dose of scepticism.”
Arctic sea ice is proving remarkably reluctant to enter its appointed ‘death throes’, despite the usual suspects having already planned the funeral. Climate Change Anxiety Disorder, it turns out, is yet to impose its angst on the actual climate, no matter how hard the BBC tries to make it.
The latest observations show that Arctic sea ice is on course to have a greater minimum extent than in 2015 and 2016, and is running higher than levels seen a decade ago. Back then, the BBC reported that Arctic summers may be ice-free by 2013, although this estimate was described as being ‘too conservative’.
That prediction was spectacularly wrong, and contrary to warnings of an ‘Arctic death spiral’, sea ice extent has been remarkably stable in the last decade. No one can say what exactly will happen next; if this humbling affair teaches anything it should be precisely that.
The climate has misbehaved in other ways too. The Greenland Ice Sheet has been gaining mass at a record rate for the second year running, and Antarctic sea ice extent is perfectly normal relative to the 1981-2010 average. These facts get little coverage because they don’t sound alarming at all, and for most reporters that means they’re not news. These ‘inconvenient truths’ are nonetheless a helpful reminder that climate change coverage should be taken with a healthy dose of scepticism. There is a long way to go before we can make accurate predictions about how the climate will behave, if indeed we ever can.
Climate science has to be more deeply grounded in real-world observations rather than models that are inevitably riddled with flawed human assumptions.
BLINK chart of the past 15 years shows no “Death Spiral” trend in sea-ice volume. It does, however, show a large increase in multi-year, 2.0-3.5 metre thick sea-ice in 2018, that will consolidate into Autumn and go nowhere for years:
AS the annual Arctic melt season comes to a close, hopes of an “Ice-free” Arctic for “Death Spiral” enthusiasts are once again denied as sea-ice remains stubbornly stable for the twelfth year in a row.
Early in life I had noticed that no event is ever correctly reported in a newspaper.
George Orwell
Summer is over, and Greenland’s surface has gained 510 billion tons of ice over the past year – about 40% above normal. The surface mass budget is snow/ice accumulation minus melt. It does not include ice loss caused by glaciers flowing to the sea, which is very difficult to measure, and is driven by processes which have little to do with the current climate.
The trajectories were very different last year and this year, but the final result was about the same.
Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI (2017/18)
Lining the two graphs up side by side, you can see the more than one trillion tons of ice which Greenland’s surface has gained over the past two years.
Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI (Split)
Last year, the Danish Meteorological Institute reported on the gain in ice, and blamed it on Hurricane Nicole. I wonder what their excuse will be this year?
HUGE expansion in the Greenland ice sheet, despite record and rising CO2 emissions and climate models to the contrary. Yet, the mainstream media and “97%” of climate ‘scientists’ remain silent, in resolute “denial”. Mother Nature’s a bitch!
It appears that the melt season has just about finished on the Greenland ice cap, and for the second year running ice accumulation has been way above normal.
THE iceberg that recently calved off a Greenland glacier and spectacularly parked itself outside the tiny village of Innaarsuit has caused the usual mainstream media heads to explode with man-made global warming climate change, again, lazily fingered as the culprit in order to facilitate the CAGW brainwashing process…
“Extreme iceberg break-ups risk becoming more frequent because of climate change, some experts have warned.”
Satellite data indicated that it measured roughly 650 feet wide, rose almost 300 feet into the air and weighed up to 11 million tons, an expert from the Danish Meteorological Institute told DR, the Danish broadcaster. | NYTimes
*
THE fact that the iceberg has settled itself outside the tiny village of Innaarsuit may be of definite concern, if it decides to flip causing a tidal surge. But, to blame global warming, while not surprising from the fake news media, is dishonest to the phenomenon of glacier calving – a natural and dynamic process that’s been happening for eons.
Many glaciers terminate at oceans or freshwater lakes which results naturally[5] with the calving of large numbers of icebergs. Calving of Greenland‘s glaciers produce 12,000 to 15,000 icebergs each year alone.[6]
CUDOS to Ella Gilbert from the British Antarctic Survey who is often asked why icebergs break away…
“It’s complicated,” she explains. “The region is clearly undergoing a lot of change but you can’t just say ‘it was the climate’. Iceberg calving is a natural process anyway. If you put more snow in at one end, it has to come out the other end as icebergs.”
THE glacier-calving process more likely reflecting the very health of a glacier.
CERTAINLY true for Greenland, from where this particular iceberg originated, where over the past 19 months more than one trillion tons of new ice has formed on the giant ice-continent’s surface.
DUE to a lot more new snow accumulating each year during the long winter, than is melting during the short summer, the surface is rapidly gaining ice, and glaciers are growing.
HOWEVER, scientists and the press (of course) report the exact opposite…
EVEN when data and empirical evidence completely contradicts AGW predictions and forecasts, alarmists continue to double down on their fear-mongering instead of evaluating their theory and admitting they might have got it all wrong. But sadly, man-made global warming has become a $trillion dollar religion to be defended at all costs in order to protect egos, jobs and reputations. This is not ‘science’, it is dogma, denial and zealotry run amok.
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