The robust Pause resists a robust el Niño Still no global warming at all for 18 years 9 months

With the ever increasing divergence of surface temperatures from satellite ones, and the subsequent divergence of overheated climate models to observed reality, it is worth a background on atmospheric measurement systems from former NASA climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer, Ph.D. – climatologist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville who he developed the first temperature record based on satellites…

Roy Spencer On Satellite (UAH / RSS) v Surface Temperature Data (NASA GISS) :

I claim 2014 won’t be the warmest global-average year on record.
..if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.
(And even if 2014 or 2015 turns out to be the warmest, this is not a cause for concern…more about that later).
The two main research groups tracking global lower-tropospheric temperatures (our UAH group, and the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] group) show 2014 lagging significantly behind 2010 and especially 1998:

Yearly-global-LT-UAH-RSS-thru-Sept-2014.png

With only 3 months left in the year, there is no realistic way for 2014 to set a record in the satellite data.
Granted, the satellites are less good at sampling right near the poles, but compared to the very sparse data from the thermometer network we are in fat city coverage-wise with the satellite data.
In my opinion, though, a bigger problem than the spotty sampling of the thermometer data is the endless adjustment game applied to the thermometer data. The thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or in-filled with fictitious data.
Furthermore, land-based thermometers are placed where people live, and people build stuff, often replacing cooling vegetation with manmade structures that cause an artificial warming (urban heat island, UHI) effect right around the thermometer. The data adjustment processes in place cannot reliably remove the UHI effect because it can’t be distinguished from real global warming.
Satellite microwave radiometers, however, are equipped with laboratory-calibrated platinum resistance thermometers, which have demonstrated stability to thousandths of a degree over many years, and which are used to continuously calibrate the satellite instruments once every 8 seconds. The satellite measurements still have residual calibration effects that must be adjusted for, but these are usually on the order of hundredths of a degree, rather than tenths or whole degrees in the case of ground-based thermometers.
And, it is of continuing amusement to us that the global warming skeptic community now tracks the RSS satellite product rather than our UAH dataset. RSS was originally supposed to provide a quality check on our product (a worthy and necessary goal) and was heralded by the global warming alarmist community. But since RSS shows a slight cooling trend since the 1998 super El Nino, and the UAH dataset doesn’t, it is more referenced by the skeptic community now. Too funny.
In the meantime, the alarmists will continue to use the outdated, spotty, and heavily-massaged thermometer data to support their case. For a group that trumpets the high-tech climate modeling effort used to guide energy policy — models which have failed to forecast (or even hindcast!) the lack of warming in recent years — they sure do cling bitterly to whatever will support their case.
As British economist Ronald Coase once said, “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”
So, why are the surface thermometer data used to the exclusion of our best technology — satellites — when tracking global temperatures? Because they better support the narrative of a dangerously warming planet.
Except, as the public can tell, the changes in global temperature aren’t even on their radar screen (sorry for the metaphor).

via Roy Spencer On Satellite v Surface Temperature Data | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

2015 “Hottest Year Ever” Update :

2015 will be the 3rd Warmest Year in the Satellite Record « Roy Spencer, PhD

Watts Up With That?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The Christmas pantomime here in Paris is well int0 its two-week run. The Druids who had hoped that their gibbering incantations might begin to shorten the Pause during the United Necromancers’ pre-solstice prayer-group have been disappointed. Gaia has not heeded them. She continues to show no sign of the “fever” long promised by the Prophet Gore. The robust Pause continues to resist the gathering el Niño. It remains at last month’s record-setting 18 years 9 months (Fig. 1).

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Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset continues to show no global warming for 18 years 9 months since February 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.

The modelers ought to be surprised by the persistence of the Pause. NOAA, with rare honesty, said in its 2008 State of…

View original post 4,467 more words


Yes, there is a pause, and the Washington Post now admits it. UPDATE: But not Obama

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to 
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC 
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itohan award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of 
scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” – U.S Government
Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of
NOAA.

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for
Physics, Ivar Giaever.

via The Herald Sun – Andrew Bolt Blog :

Yes, there is a pause, and the Washington Post now admits it. UPDATE: But not Obama

 

Filed Under : Global warming – dud predictions

If even the Washington Post can admit to the pause, how much longer can The Age hold out in denying the science?


The recently-released National Climate Assessment (NCA) from the U.S. government offers considerable cause for concern for climate calamity, but downplays the decelerating trend in global surface temperature in the 2000s, which I document here.

Many climate scientists are currently working to figure out what is causing the slowdown, because if it continues, it would call into question the legitimacy of many climate model projections (and inversely offer some good news for our planet).

An article in Nature earlier this year discusses some of the possible causes for what some have to referred to as the global warming “pause” or “hiatus”.  Explanations include the quietest solar cycle in over a hundred years, increases in Asian pollution, more effective oceanic heat absorption, and even volcanic activity. Indeed, a peer-reviewed paperpublished in February estimates that about 15 percent of the pause can be attributed to increased volcanism. But some have questioned whether the pause or deceleration is even occurring at all.

You can see the pause (or deceleration in warming) yourself by simply grabbing the freely available data from NASA and NOAA. For the chart below, I took the annual global temperature difference from average (or anomaly) and calculated the change from the prior year. So the very first data point is the change from 2000 to 2001 and so on. One sign of data validation is that the trends are the same on both datasets.  Both of these government sources show a slight downward slope since 2000:

image

You can see some of the spikes associated with El Niño events (when heat was released into the atmosphere from warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific) that occurred in 2004-05 and 2009-10. But the warm changes have generally been decreasing while cool changes have grown.

To be sure, both sets of data points show an overall rise in temperature of +0.01C during the 2000s. But, if current trends continue for just a few more years, then the mean change for the 2000s will shift to negative; in other words, the warming would really stop. The current +.01C increase in temperatures is insufficient to verify the climate change projections for major warming (even the low end +1-2C) by mid-to-late century. A peer reviewed study in Nature Climate Change published in 2013 drew the same conclusion: “Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models,” it says. 

Read on. Meteorologist Matt Rogers addresses all the usual denialist objections.

(Via Watts Up With That, which has been making the same case for years.)

UPDATE

Respect the consensus that says Barack Obama is lying about the science.

The US Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works held a hearing this week on global warming and invited as witnesses four former heads of the Environmental Protection Agency. Senator Jeff Sessions asks:

The President on November 14th 2012 said, ‘The temperature around the globe is increasing faster than was predicted, even ten years ago.’ And then on May 29th last year he also said – quote – ‘We also know that the climate is warming faster than anybody anticipated five or ten years ago.’

So I would ask each of our former Administrators if any of you agree that that’s an accurate statement on the climate. So if you do, raise your hand.

The fun begins at 1:20:


See Also :

Climatism Related :


Establishing Propaganda Is Vital For Climate Action

It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true
.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

JohnCookSkep190

(un)skeptical-science’s John Cook

In a recent article, Mike Hulme argued that the debate “needs to become more political, and less scientific”. We agree, because the scientific debate has moved on from the fundamentals – there is no scientific debate about the fact that the globe is warming from human greenhouse gas emissions. So we need to hammer out political solutions rather than “debating” well-established scientific facts. – John Cook

Establishing consensus is vital for climate action | The Conversation

•••

Memo to John Cook : There has been no atmospheric global warming, at all, over the past 17 years, despite 35% of all human CO2 emissions, since 1751, emitted over the same period.

No GLOBAL WARMING 17 YEARS 5 MONTHS

Satellites show no global warming for 17 years 5 months | Watts Up With That?

•••

Whilst Cook et al would prefer to talk politics to avoid the inconvenient global warming “Pause”, here are some well-established scientific facts …

Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.15.04 pm

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling : Nature : Nature Publishing Group

Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.18.07 pm

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008 | PNAS

Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.20.49 pm

Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade : Nature Climate Change

Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.24.00 pm

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

 Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at , February 9, 3.32.58 pm

Climate change: The case of the missing heat : Nature News & Comment

•••
UPDATE
England et al.
Screen Shot 2014-02-15 at , February 15, 6.42.32 pm
Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

•••

“The Oceans Ate My Global Warming” :

With no rise in atmospheric temps over the past 17 years, the latest bluff in climate alarmism is that the ‘missing heat’ is hiding at the bottom of the oceans. However, the first globally accurate network of measurement buoys (3000+ ARGO satellite buoys), which descend to depths of 2,000 metres, have detected no significant increase in ocean heat since deployment in 2003.

Kevin Trenberth theorises that missing heat takes a dive into deep oceans. “The oceans can at times soak up a lot of heat. Some goes into the deep oceans where it can stay for centuries [and where lamentably, there are no reliable temperature measurements].  But heat absorbed closer to the surface can easily flow back into the air.” Yet sea surface temperatures and the upper heat content didn’t increase over the last decade by enough to account for the “missing heat” that those greenhouse gas emissions should have trapped in the Earth’s climate system but couldn’t be found. (via Forbes)

screen-shot-2013-09-06-at-september-6-1-13-12-pm

Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly – NOAA

screen-shot-2013-09-06-at-september-6-1-20-23-pm

Global Marine Argo Atlas

•••

UPDATE :

Another alarmist excuse for the 17+ year “pause” in Global Warming has been ‘scientifically’ assassinated …. by none other than the doyens of ‘Global Warming’ hysteria ~ NASA, who now admit that the “Missing (atmospheric) heat” is NOT “Hiding in the deep oceans” after all !

Oh dear…

Screen Shot 2014-11-16 at , November 16, 2.59.44 pm

NASA Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed | NASA

More from former NASA Climate Scientist Dr Roy Spencer :

NASA: The Deep Ocean Hasn’t Warmed Since 2005 (but we’re all gonna die)

October 6th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

While still claiming that the results do not cast doubt on climate change, a new NASA press release says that the global oceans below 2,000 meters depth haven’t warmed since 2005. This is the period that we have had the deep oceans reasonably well sampled with thousands of globally-distributed Argo floats.

The thing that annoys me about such press releases is the obligatory disclaimer (no doubt crafted so that “skeptics” don’t have a field day with the press release):

“Study coauthor Josh Willis of JPL said these findings do not throw suspicion on climate change itself.”

Such statements have the usual vagueness that allows the True Believers to interpret it any way they want.

Does it mean: “It doesn’t throw suspicion on Al Gore’s impending thermogeddon”?

Or does it mean: “It doesn’t throw suspicion on the fact that climate has always changed, and always will change, with or without the help of humans”?

Or maybe something in between?

You see, as long as the IPCC gets away with basing alarmist rhetoric upon factually benign statements, like over half of the warming since the 1950s has been human induced (yawn), the global warming debate will remain dominated by extremists.

And this allows politicians to get away with saying whatever they want. Scientists are so vague that their statements can be used in a wide variety of ways that help the politician.

NASA: The Deep Ocean Hasn’t Warmed Since 2005 (but we’re all gonna die) « Roy Spencer, PhD

•••

From the well-established scientific fact that there has been no global warming, at all, for the past 17 years, it’s not hard to see why Cook and the global warming climate change cult believe the debate “needs to become more political, and less scientific”.

Global Warming was never about ‘science‘. It was always about Power, Money and Overpopulation.

•••

A little humour on Cooky …

•••

UPDATE

No global warming for 17 years, 6 months

Posted on WUWT March 4, 2014 by 
Seventeen and a half years. Not a flicker of global warming. The RSS satellite record, the first of the five global-temperature datasets to report its February value, shows a zero trend for an impressive 210 months. Miss Brevis, send a postcard to Mr Gore:
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•••
UPDATE
Make that 18 years and 4 months, or now a “pause” of global warming lasting for more than half the entire satellite record:
GW Pause 18 years 4 months
El Niño or ñot, the Pause lengthens again | Watts Up With That?
•••
UPDATE
The latest “peer-reviewed” global warming “pause” update from Nature journal:
Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at , April 24, 7.48.56 am
Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group
•••
UPDATE
via Andrew Bolt :

Warmists who denied the pause now claim to explain it

•••
See Also :

John Cook’s Bogus “97%” Climate Consensus Survey related :

John Cook Misc. :

Climatism Related :