Why CSIRO and BoM Cannot Be Trusted On Anything “Climate Change”

CSIRO.jpg

 

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is the federal government agency for scientific research in Australia. It was founded in 1926 originally as the Advisory Council of Science and Industry.

In the field of climate science, the CSIRO leans staunchly towards the alarmist side of the climate debate. One example shows the CSIRO using sea level rise figures far in excess of even the (warmist) IPCC.

The Australian reports:

In its 2012 report, State of the Climate, the CSIRO says that since 1993 sea levels have risen up to 10mm a year in the north and west. That means that somewhere has had a 19cm-rise in sea level since 1993. Where is this place? The European satellite says that sea levels have been constant for the past eight years.

In its latest 2016, State of the Climate report, the CSIRO indulges in a blatant cherry-picking exercise to further push their agenda that human emissions are causing the climate to change.

They fail, however, to inform you of their chronic list of failed predictions from previous SOC reports.

This is why scientific organisations like CSIRO and BoM have – tragically – become almost the last places to hear the truth about the global warming climate change. Too many reputations are now at stake.

Andrew Bolt, yet again, sets their record straight from their own records! …

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The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology this week published their latest State of the Climate report:

Observations and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long-term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability.

Strangely, the report fails to explain why past predictions by the Bureau and the CSIRO of a permanent drought turned out so wrong.

Here is the Bureau, quoted in 2008:

IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.

“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones….

“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent…”

Here is the Bureau’s Jones in 2007:

As Jones wrote to the University of East Anglia the year before: “Truth be know, climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone of our cities is on the verge of running out of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse…”

Here is the CSIRO, quoted in 2009:

A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change…

”It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,” said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal. ‘

‘In the minds of a lot of people, the rainfall we had in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s was a benchmark. A lot of our [water and agriculture] planning was done during that time. But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.”

Yet, with floods and rains and filling dams is so many states, an author of this latest report gets a very soft interview from the ABC’s Fran Kelly, who also fails to note an astonishing bit of cherry-picking that discredits the whole report.

The report’s authors present this alleged evidence of man-made climate change hurting us:

Observations also show that atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere have led to an average reduction in rainfall across parts of southern Australia.

In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia. There has been a decline of around 11% since the mid-1990s in April–October rainfall in the continental southeast. Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997.

Note the strange decision, given our rainfall records go back more than a century, to pick apparently random and inconsistent dates – 1970 and 1997 and “mid 1990s” – as a base point from which to measure declines in rainfall. Note further that this decline is curiously only in patches of the country, and then only in – again – inconsistent periods, “May–July ” and “April–October”.

These are classic tell-tales of cherry picking – tricking to find some arbitrary period that can produce a statistical and scary decline which you can then present as troubling evidence that global warming is drying up our rains. (Even then, none of this comes even close to showing the “permanent” drought the agencies once claimed were leaving our cities desperately short of drinking water.)

This trickery becomes even clearer when you check the Bureau’s rainfall records for the whole past century or more. Amazingly, the impact of man-made warming becomes impossible to detect.

Here, again, is what the State of the Climate report says:

Observations also show that atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere have led to an average reduction in rainfall across parts of southern Australia.

But here is the Bureau’s own record of rainfall for southern Australia:

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Rain – southern Australia

Judged over the century, then, there is no evidence at all of rainfall decline.

Again, from the Bureau’s report:

In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia.

Rainfall in the south-west is indeed declining, and has done for most of the past 120 years, the first half of which almost no scientist would blame on man’s emissions, which even the IPCC says only had a real effect after World War 11:

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Rain in south west

State of the Climate’s authors also claim that “Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997”.

But the longer record for the south-east again shows no historic change:

SA No historic change.jpeg
Rain in south east

Once again, a decline from the unusually wet 1970s, but little sign of change over more than a century.

And for the continent as a whole, more rain, not less – and certainly no permanent drought:

Aus rainfall.jpeg
Rain Australia

And as for the Murray Darling, that the Bureau once said was on “the verge of collapse”:

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Murray Darling

This is disgraceful. The Bureau and the CSIRO must explain why they have fed us such scares.

 

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CSIRO / BoM Related :

See Also :


Arctic Ice Extent Recovering At Record Pace

“Record” Arctic sea-ice recovery despite record CO2 emissions this Century and rising!

In fact a third of all Human CO2 emissions since 1750 have been emitted this Century, yet global temps have plateaued and the Arctic is currently tracking record recovery.

Time for a global-warming-theory check? It is, after all, still a “theory” with not a single peer-reviewed paper yet to link empirical evidence with the small amount of warming that has occurred since 1850 – about 0.8C, depending on which data-set is used.

Furthermore the slight warning that has occurred is arguably beneficial to human wellbeing and plant growth, as opposed to dangerous cooling. Far more lives are lost to cold weather than to warm.

As well, numerous studies, including from AGW alarmist government agencies NASA and the CSIRO have shown that rising CO2 emissions are “greening” the planet, which with great irony happens to be a very unwelcome message for the environmental movement.

CSIRO Censoring Their Own Climate Research:
https://climatism.wordpress.com/2015/03/25/csiro-censoring-their-own-climate-research/

So much for the “Ice-free Arctic by 2014”, “Arctic Death Spiral”, “Arctic Imminent Doom”, “Arctic Tipping Points” and other alarmist predictions spouted by climate scientists, government agencies and their sycophant media.

The Arctic is the ultimate ‘canary in the coal-mine’ for global warming alarmists, and it is currently recovering at record pace, despite record CO2 emissions.

Cue “Global Warming Is Causing Record Arctic Ice Growth”! But don’t laugh, climate alarmists have already used that one to explain the undisputed *record* ice expansion and cooling of Antarctica 🇦🇶!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20160928

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

Arctic sea ice continues to grow back at a phenomenal rate. Since the start of the month, growth has comfortable exceeded anything on record since daily figures began in 1987.

image

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Ice has expanded by 0.896 million sq km, compared to the 1981-2010 average of 0.237 million sq km.

According to NSIDC, ice extent now stands at the fourth highest for this day in the last 10 years.

image

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

DMI actually show ice extent to be higher than NSIDC, roughly equal to 2013 and 2014, which raises questions in itself.

osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

DMI now estimate that the average extent for the month will be greater than, or on a par with, most of the last ten years. Only 2013 and 2014 are much greater.

It is clear that September ice extent has remained extremely stable since 2007, regardless of what happened before.

osisaf_nh_iceextent_monthly-09_en

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover_30y.uk.php

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Inconvenient: Record Arctic Sea Ice Growth In September

Ouch. Another failed climate prediction.

And yet another reason not to believe the favoured climate meme used by global warming alarmists to shut down debate – “the science is settled”…

Watts Up With That?

History Keeps Proving Prophets Of Eco-Apocalypse Wrong

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Source data: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Since hitting its earliest minimum extent since 1997, Arctic sea ice has been expanding at a phenomenal rate. Already it is greater than at the same date in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2015. Put another way, it is the fourth highest extent in the last ten years. Even more remarkably, ice growth since the start of the month is actually the greatest on record, since daily figures started to be kept in 1987. –Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, 25 September 2016

wadhams-collapse

One of the world’s leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years. In what he calls a “global disaster” now unfolding in northern latitudes as the sea area that freezes and melts each year shrinks to its lowest extent ever recorded…

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Failed Prediction Update : Lapsley Versus Flannery As The Rain Falls

“So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…” Tim Flannery 2007

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Global Warmimg alarmists like, Tim Flannery, assured us that global warming would bring us a “new era” of climate – droughts, famine and pestilence etc etc.

With dams full in South Australia, and in most of eastern Australia, it would appear that the human-induced global warming disaster drought scenario, is yet another failed prediction from the climate hysterical.

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From the Herald Sun’s Andrew Bolt :

Emergency management commissioner Craig Lapsley on global warming today:

The rivers are full, the reservoirs are full, the dams are full, so every drop of rain that falls from the sky is going to be in the river system and has the potential to increase flooding at that local level.

Which is the exact opposite of what Tim Flannery predicted in 2007:

Even the rain that falls is not going to fill our dams and our river systems.

UPDATE
Amazing dam-filling in Adelaide. See above.

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Related :


Wash-out: Warmist Bureau’s Drought Prediction Fail

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Floods Hit Victoria (Source : Herald Sun) 

Yet another alarmist scare out of the warmist Australian Bureau of Meteorology, wrecked by Mother Nature.

Either that or they put way too much ‘faith’ in their junk-in, junk-out computer models.

The litany of failed, alarmist predictions is why scientific organisations, such as the BoM, have – tragically – become almost the last places to hear the truth about global warming climate change.

The ‘Meteorological Office’ used to exist as a corrective to scaremongering, not any more.

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From Herald Sun

Floods? Near-record rainfall? I’d like the head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology to explain why his 2008 prediction of a “new climate” of drought turned out so wrong.

 

2008:

IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.

“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones.

2016:

Winter was Australia’s second wettest on record – just missing out on a new high by a couple of millimetres, leaving many regions already sodden.

“It’s about as wet as it has been in the past 110 years [of records] across Australia,” David Jones, head of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.

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Related :


New Study Finds No Evidence Of Global Warming Increasing Extreme Rainfall

Another one bites the dust ☔️

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0307.1

This paper, published last month, has some relevance to recent attempts to blame the Louisiana floods on global warming.

ABSTRACT

Precipitation extremes have a widespread impact on societies and ecosystems; it is therefore important to understand current and future patterns of extreme precipitation. Here, a set of new global coupled climate models with varying atmospheric resolution has been used to investigate the ability of these models to reproduce observed patterns of precipitation extremes and to investigate changes in these extremes in response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The atmospheric resolution was increased from 2°×2° grid cells (typical resolution in the CMIP5 archive) to 0.25°×.25° (tropical cyclone-permitting). Analysis has been confined to the contiguous United States (CONUS). It is shown that, for these models, integrating at higher atmospheric resolution improves all aspects of simulated extreme precipitation: spatial patterns, intensities and seasonal timing. In response to 2×CO

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Another Flannery Fail: Geothermal Power Plant Project Scrapped

Tim Flannery.

No other comment needed.

Other than to mention that despite his myriad of alarmist dud-predictions resulting in costly, failed unreliable (green) energy solutions – geothermal, failed windmills, $12 billion of mothballed desal plants, to name a few, the Government funded ABC continues to default to him as their resident climate expert!?

The groupthink, warmist activists over at the ABC, never once questioning or holding him to account for his litany of green failures and dud-predictions, costing taxpayers literally billions upon billions of dollars.

But once again, the worst Flannery and his climate change alarmist cronies can ever be accused of, for failed alarmist predictions resulting in massive taxpayer-dollar waste, is an excess of virtue, in order to “Save the planet”.

Disgraceful.

PA Pundits - International

Bolt New 01By Andrew Bolt ~

Another green energy fail:

A potential energy source in Australia is set to remain untapped, with a geothermal power project in the far north of South Australia now closed.

Energy company Geodynamics closed and remediated the sites of several test wells and generation plants in the Cooper Basin after deciding they were not financially viable.

Professor Tim Flannery (Former Australian Climate Change Commissioner)Professor Tim Flannery (Former Australian Climate Change Commissioner)

So who spruiked it? Climate catastrophist Tim Flannery:

There are hot rocks in South Australia that potentially have enough embedded energy in them to run Australia’s economy for the best part of a century. They are not being fully exploited yet but the technology to extract that energy and turn it into electricity is relatively straightforward….

But we’ve totally ignored the technologies that really, I think, have a lot of potential to do the job very cost effectively such as geothermal and solar…

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