UNI QLD LAW PROF : Covid Hysteria Based on Lies, Propaganda and Ignorance

“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely
exercised for the good of its victims
may be the most oppressive.”
– C. S. Lewis

“The urge to save humanity is almost always a
false-front for the urge to rule it.”
– H.L. Mencken

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
– H.L. Mencken

Superb piece from Prof. James Allan.

(5 min read)

Via The Australian

Covid hysteria based on lies, propaganda and ignorance

By James Allan

12:00AM OCTOBER 2, 2021

All the Covid hysteria around most of the democratic world, and especially in Britain, New York state, Canada and here in Australia, is driven by two main things. 

The first is that many people haven’t got a clue about what the relative risks are. Ask them what they think their chances of dying would be should they catch Covid and most get this massively wrong – a good few get the odds wrong by two orders of magnitude (answering 30 per cent when at most it’s about 0.3 per cent). And we’re talking about one’s chances of dying before being vaccinated.

Government propaganda – because there is no other way to describe it – has deliberately tried to scare people senseless and hence to distort their relative-risk assessments. That has been a clear and unmistakeable goal, including of all the daily press conferences with the breathless recitation of cases by politicians without an ounce of concern for freedom-­related issues, and by public-health types.

And for once, government seems to have got something right because its Covid scaremongering has been very successful.

The second problem has been all the models relied upon by the supine political class. It started with the Neil Ferguson modelling coming out of Imperial College in London and spread out from there.

No one in the press corps seems to care that Professor Ferguson has had an unbroken track record of massively wrong predictions with his models, prophesying things that came nowhere near reality. In 2002, his models predicted 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease). In the event there were 177 deaths.

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million could be killed from bird flu. By 2009, 282 people had died of it. Ferguson was also heavily involved in the modelling around Britain’s foot-and-mouth disease that led to a mass culling of 11 million sheep and cattle in 2001. That time his models predicted up to 150,000 humans would die. You guessed it. There were actually fewer than 200 deaths. And before Boris Johnson’s “Freedom Day” a couple months ago, when the British PM finally summoned up a backbone and ignored the public-health class of fearmongers, Ferguson and a small army of supposed experts (more than 1200 scientists and doctors, including the editor-in-chief of The Lancet) signed a letter predicting carnage if Boris went ahead. All their “this is a murderous, irresponsible opening up” predictions proved woefully wrong.

Ferguson, interviewed later about being off by such a huge margin, replied along the lines that it doesn’t bother him being wrong, as long as he is wrong in the right direction. Let that sink in for a moment. For him, and seemingly the vast preponderance of the modelling caste, the right direction is the one that massively overstates future bad outcomes.

A woman looks at a mural of a health worker with wings holding a globe on International Nurses Day in May. Picture: AFP

A woman looks at a mural of a health worker with wings holding a globe on International Nurses Day in May. Picture: AFP

You can keep your jobs no matter how badly off your predictions are, as long as you’re wrong in the overstated direction. Under-predict by even one death, though, and the fear is some pusillanimous politician will give you the axe.

That same attitude seems to be true of virtually all the modelling, including here in Australia. So many models have implausible assumptions built in, such as that no citizens left to their own devices would change any behaviour without the despotic, mailed fist of government ordering them to do so. You will try in vain to find a ­single model that ended up understating the bad outcomes it ­predicted.

So now turn to Sweden, with a population of just under 10 and half million. It never locked down at all. No small businesses were forced to close and so bankrupted (and no big businesses were thereby incredibly enriched and allowed to have bumper profits under the sort of crony capitalism that lockdowns deliver). Schools never closed. People were trusted to make smart calls. Oh wait, Sweden may have put a limit of 500 people at big events for a while. That was it.

According to the most recent data I can find, Sweden has had about 1.14 million Covid cases and 14,753 Covid deaths (a sizeable chunk of those happening early on in aged care, for which the overseeing epidemiologist, Professor Anders Tegnell, quickly admitted the country’s handling mistakes). Since May of this year Sweden has had one of the lowest rates of Covid in Europe. Its deaths per million across the whole pandemic are now low enough that the press no longer talks about Sweden. The lockdownistas do not want the country to do well.

Meanwhile, a number of British doctors are now predicting that deaths caused by the lockdowns themselves will end up outnumbering the saved Covid deaths by 10 or 20 to 1. And this in a world where the median age of Covid deaths is higher than the country’s average life expectancy for men and for women.

A woman walks through a field of white flags symbolising the lives lost to Covid-19 in the US. Picture: AFP
A woman walks through a field of white flags symbolising the lives lost to Covid-19 in the US. Picture: AFP

It’s a world where (according to the latest Stanford study) the survival rate for the unvaccinated for these age ranges is: 0-19 (99.9973 per cent); 20-29 (99.986 per cent); 30-39 (99.969 per cent); 40-49 (99.918 per cent); and the survival rate doesn’t drop below 99.7 per cent until you get to the over-70s.

In a world with that sort of risk of dying from Covid, if you are under 70 why would you care in the slightest if someone else chooses not to get vaccinated? You started with those great odds and improved them by getting vaccinated yourself. Give anyone under 75 a choice of whether to get Covid or cancer, heart disease or diabetes, and you’re an idiot if you don’t pick Covid.

The whole vaccine-passport mandate position (full disclosure, to have some hope of one day seeing my kids who live overseas I’m double-jabbed) is premised on people having no clue at all of their relative risks. Then add in a dollop of “take the worst imaginable outcome modelling”. Throw in a media and press corps that is either stupid or longs for the reincarnation of Pravda. Stir. And you have Australia, readers.

We’re not the world’s best handlers of Covid. From early on it was plain we were on a trajectory to be the world’s worst. And with every year that passes, that will become ever more obvious.

James Allan is Garrick professor of law at the University of Queensland.

Covid hysteria based on lies, propaganda and ignorance | The Australian

Covid-19 Related :


COVID-19 : A Shocking New Study Emerges

“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely
exercised for the good of its victims
may be the most oppressive.”
C. S. Lewis

“The urge to save humanity is almost always a
false-front for the urge to rule it.”
H.L. Mencken

Covid-19, targets a very specific sub-set of the population. In fact, 99.9% of anyone under the age of 90, without severe underlying health conditions, survives. 

An overdue article out of the hard-left, fear-porn-loving Atlantic, bells-the-cat on another high level hoax that came out of the ‘pandemic’, in order for you to submit and comply — “hospitalisations.”

Why is The Atlantic publishing this? Because they need to show history (what will be left of it) that they knew, ‘before anyone’, that Covid-19 was used, maliciously, by the MainstreamMedia, inept politicians and useful idiots, as a tool of fear and panic to wrought (“Build Back Better”) ‘change’.

Change in their own image. Not in yours, or, by yours.

Read on …

via The Atlantic :

(Climatism bolds)

Our Most Reliable Pandemic Number Is Losing Meaning

A new study suggests that almost half of those hospitalized with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic cases.By David Zweig

At least 12,000 Americans have already died from COVID-19 this month, as the country inches through its latest surge in cases. But another worrying statistic is often cited to depict the dangers of this moment: The number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States right now is as high as it has been since the beginning of February. It’s even worse in certain places: Some states, including Arkansas and Oregon, recently saw their COVID hospitalizations rise to higher levels than at any prior stage of the pandemic. But how much do those latter figures really tell us?

From the start, COVID hospitalizations have served as a vital metric for tracking the risks posed by the disease. Last winter, this magazine described it as “the most reliable pandemic number,” while Vox quoted the cardiologist Eric Topol as saying that it’s “the best indicator of where we are.” On the one hand, death counts offer finality, but they’re a lagging signal and don’t account for people who suffered from significant illness but survived. Case counts, on the other hand, depend on which and how many people happen to get tested. Presumably, hospitalization numbers provide a more stable and reliable gauge of the pandemic’s true toll, in terms of severe disease. But a new, nationwide study of hospitalization records, released as a preprint today (and not yet formally peer reviewed), suggests that the meaning of this gauge can easily be misinterpreted—and that it has been shifting over time.

If you want to make sense of the number of COVID hospitalizations at any given time, you need to know how sick each patient actually is. Until now, that’s been almost impossible to suss out. The federal government requires hospitals to report every patient who tests positive for COVID, yet the overall tallies of COVID hospitalizations, made available on various state and federal dashboards and widely reported on by the media, do not differentiate based on severity of illness. Some patients need extensive medical intervention, such as getting intubated. Others require supplemental oxygen or administration of the steroid dexamethasone. But there are many COVID patients in the hospital with fairly mild symptoms, too, who have been admitted for further observation on account of their comorbidities, or because they reported feeling short of breath. Another portion of the patients in this tally are in the hospital for something unrelated to COVID, and discovered that they were infected only because they were tested upon admission. How many patients fall into each category has been a topic of much speculation. In August, researchers from Harvard Medical School, Tufts Medical Center, and the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System decided to find out.

Researchers have tried to get at similar questions before. For two separate studies published in May, doctors in California read through several hundred charts of pediatric patients, one by one, to figure out why, exactly, each COVID-positive child had been admitted to the hospital. Did they need treatment for COVID, or was there some other reason for admission, like cancer treatment or a psychiatric episode, and the COVID diagnosis was merely incidental? According to the researchers, 40 to 45 percent of the hospitalizations that they examined were for patients in the latter group.

The authors of the paper out this week took a different tack to answer a similar question, this time for adults. Instead of meticulously looking at why a few hundred patients were admitted to a pair of hospitals, they analyzed the electronic records for nearly 50,000 COVID hospital admissions at the more than 100 VA hospitals across the country. Then they checked to see whether each patient required supplemental oxygen or had a blood oxygen level below 94 percent. (The latter criterion is based on the National Institutes of Health definition of “severe COVID.”) If either of these conditions was met, the authors classified that patient as having moderate to severe disease; otherwise, the case was considered mild or asymptomatic.

The study found that from March 2020 through early January 2021—before vaccination was widespread, and before the Delta variant had arrived—the proportion of patients with mild or asymptomatic disease was 36 percent. From mid-January through the end of June 2021, however, that number rose to 48 percent. In other words, the study suggests that roughly half of all the hospitalized patients showing up on COVID-data dashboards in 2021 may have been admitted for another reason entirely, or had only a mild presentation of disease.

This increase was even bigger for vaccinated hospital patients, of whom 57 percent had mild or asymptomatic disease. But unvaccinated patients have also been showing up with less severe symptoms, on average, than earlier in the pandemic: The study found that 45 percent of their cases were mild or asymptomatic since January 21. According to Shira Doron, an infectious-disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, in Boston, and one of the study’s co-authors, the latter finding may be explained by the fact that unvaccinated patients in the vaccine era tend to be a younger cohort who are less vulnerable to COVID and may be more likely to have been infected in the past.

Among the limitations of the study is that patients in the VA system are not representative of the U.S. population as a whole, as they include few women and no children. (Still, the new findings echo those from the two pediatric-admissions studies.) Also, like many medical centers, the VA has a policy to test every inpatient for COVID, but this is not a universal practice. Lastly, most of the data—even from the patients admitted in 2021—derive from the phase of the pandemic before Delta became widespread, and it’s possible that the ratios have changed in recent months. The study did run through June 30, however, when the Delta wave was about to break, and it did not find that the proportion of patients with moderate to severe respiratory distress was trending upward at the end of the observation period.

The idea behind the study and what it investigates is important, says Graham Snyder, the medical director of infection prevention and hospital epidemiology at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, though he told me that it would benefit from a little more detail and nuance beyond oxygenation status. But Daniel Griffin, an infectious-disease specialist at Columbia University, told me that using other metrics for severity of illness, such as intensive-care admissions, presents different limitations. For one thing, different hospitals use different criteria for admitting patients to the ICU.

One of the important implications of the study, these experts say, is that the introduction of vaccines strongly correlates with a greater share of COVID hospital patients having mild or asymptomatic disease. “It’s underreported how well the vaccine makes your life better, how much less sick you are likely to be, and less sick even if hospitalized,” Snyder said. “That’s the gem in this study.”

“People ask me, ‘Why am I getting vaccinated if I just end up in the hospital anyway?’” Griffin said. “But I say, ‘You’ll end up leaving the hospital.’” He explained that some COVID patients are in for “soft” hospitalizations, where they need only minimal treatment and leave relatively quickly; others may be on the antiviral drug remdesivir for five days, or with a tube down their throat. One of the values of this study, he said, is that it helps the public understand this distinction—and the fact that not all COVID hospitalizations are the same.

But the study also demonstrates that hospitalization rates for COVID, as cited by journalists and policy makers, can be misleading, if not considered carefully. Clearly many patients right now are seriously ill. We also know that overcrowding of hospitals by COVID patients with even mild illness can have negative implications for patients in need of other care. At the same time, this study suggests that COVID hospitalization tallies can’t be taken as a simple measure of the prevalence of severe or even moderate disease, because they might inflate the true numbers by a factor of two. “As we look to shift from cases to hospitalizations as a metric to drive policy and assess level of risk to a community or state or country,” Doron told me, referring to decisions about school closures, business restrictions, mask requirements, and so on, “we should refine the definition of hospitalization. Those patients who are there with rather than from COVID don’t belong in the metric.”

The Atlantic’s COVID-19 coverage is supported by grants from the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
David Zweig is a writer based in New York. He is the author of the nonfiction book Invisibles and the novel Swimming Inside the Sun.

Related :


LETTING The Mask Slip : We Are All Mere Pawns Of A COVID19 Political Game

Dr Barbara Ferrer – Director, Los Angeles County Department of Public Health

*

THERE has not been a single case, globally, of a school-aged child, shedding COVID-19 onto another student, or a teacher, resulting in a single death. So, why are schools not open in the USA, or Victoria, Australia?

*

SURELY, ‘Get Trump’ politics is not to blame?

CHECK for yourself, then…

SEE from 6:06 (re; education), or alternatively watch Ingraham’s entire episode :

Laura Ingraham alleges Democrats trying to keep Americans from ‘pursuit of happiness’ | Fox News

•••

PS// Please excuse new formatting, or errors. Worpdress has a new ridiculous “block technology” that I’m yet to fully become accustomed with, if ever. Strange tech. Thx, JWS.

COVID 19 related :

COVID19 : 30 Minutes Of Pristine Reality | Climatism

SEE Also :

COVID 1984 related :

FOR the latest AU government information on COVID19 :

ANXIETY? Need to speak to someone?


COVID1984 : No More Recorded Influenza Cases In Australia

IMG_6651

COVID1984 – get TRUMP – November 3rd


“Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely
exercised for the good of its victims
may be the most oppressive.

C. S. Lewis

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
 (and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
 by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins,
all of them imaginary.”
H.L. Mencken

***

MUST READ analysis, by a concerned citizen (aka voter), of what’s really going on in the Orwellian world of COVID-19 and the politics of statistics.

via Cairns News :

No more recorded influenza cases in Australia

 

Letter to the Editor

Government lies, damn lies and statistics

Victorian Population – 6,359,000

  • COVID tests conducted – 1,633,900
  • COVID cases – 11,557
  • Positive cases to Victorian population – 0.18%
  • Positive Case to Test Conducted Percentage – 0.70%
  • COVID Deaths – 123
  • Positive COVID Case Death rate – 1.06%
  • COVID deaths to tests conducted – 0.0075% (read that again…)
  • COVID deaths to total Victorian population: 0.0019% (read that again…)
  • Median Age of COVID deaths: 82
  • Australia’s life expectancy at 2017: 82.50

There is a highly unusual occurrence in the 2020 influenza data. Based on the included charts , you will see there was a steadily increasing number of influenza cases at the start of 2020 that was almost in lockstep with the 2019 (record-breaking) influenza season. This was until March – at week 11 (when lockdown started), the influenza numbers across the country suddenly dropped off to almost zero at the same time as COVID numbers increased. The flu has remained at almost zero since (nearly 20 weeks later). Now, of course with lockdowns, increased sanitisation and social distancing, this would always reduce the spread of the flu in roughly equal proportion to the spread of COVID.

Climatism note :

KEEP in mind that the WHO states, “influenza can spread faster than COVID-19.”

IMG_6482

This Is Not About A Virus | Climatism

However (and here is where it gets mysterious), if the trigger for a large number of tests being conducted is people with “flu-like symptoms”, and 1.6 million COVID tests have been conducted with only 11.5k (0.7%) positive COVID cases, then by extension a reasonable portion of the 1.6 million tests should actually be the flu. Right?

Even if we took a rather conservative estimate of only 10% of tests conducted being the actual flu, this would still equate to a bit over 160,000 flu cases (or roughly half of last year’s national flu cases) – that is a lot. It is almost as if the existence of COVID and the flu are mutually exclusive. How is this possible?

Why is it that lab-confirmed influenza reporting has virtually stopped (not entirely but as close to stopped as you can get)?

Influenza has been an increasingly growing concern for the government and health departments over the past 3 or so years (with a record ~300,000 lab-confirmed influenza cases last year – nationally). It killed 902 people around the country, it appears to hit the vulnerable communities in just the same way COVID does.

So questions to be asked that the flu and COVID data raises

  1. How did influenza numbers almost immediately stop at lockdown and have virtually remain flatlined since – even mid-way into peak season and even during a COVID second wave?
  2. Why does it look as though COVID numbers have directly replaced flu numbers, yet the positive case to test ratio is still so low (0.70%)
  3. If COVID remained contagious despite the implemented controls, why has the flu’s contagion rate almost completely fallen to zero?
  4. Of all the people who showed “flu-like” symptoms but tested negative, why do they not show up on the flu data? If they had flu-like symptoms but not COVID, then what did they have?
  5. Why has flu reporting stopped, and what are the implications of not having continuity in flu reporting, [for] long term healthcare planning and management?
  6. Who stands to gain by not reporting the flu during COVID?
  7. What agendas are playing out on the absence of flu data as a reasonable and reliable baseline?
  8. If COVID cases are still occurring (second wave), should there not be an equal/corresponding spike in regular flu cases (in line with the symptomatic but negative COVID tests) from people moving around?
  9. If the flu has almost completely disappeared and has for the most part been replaced by COVID, will we ever be free of COVID? And further, if this is now the case, what is the acceptable target of COVID cases in circulation before we can get “back to normal”?
  10. If contact tracing and tracking the spread of a new virus that symptomatically looks like the flu is important, why would the flu not be tested at the same time as covid to map how the flu is transmitting and behaving alongside COVID?
  11. Is testing for flu not equally as important and responsible so people who test negative to covid but positive to the flu still operate safely in public?

Flu Data References
2020 Jan to Jul – https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm?fbclid=IwAR3yGuMtEjjH1xyCdY_W0M2en2ShnNJrmOwho5UYN3PIdxG0JSDAfzD50PU

2019 Data – https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/?fbclid=IwAR1myF727emKxZWc3yFi7gWfW_ILvToDV4sx2Gg3pQ1Aam0QzIQxhfbvFCw

We also need to know…

  1. How many people who tested positive for Covid had had the flu injection ?
  2. How many people who tested negative for Covid had had the flu injection?

from Brian Jones,

No more recorded influenza cases in Australia | Cairns News

(Climatism bolds)

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COVID1984 Related :

FOR the latest AU government information on COVID19 :

ANXIETY? Need to speak to someone?

•••

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