Arctic Ice Goes Above Average

More inconvenient climate change (aka global warming) news…

Science Matters

Heavy ice is making it impossible for fishermen from the Twillingate area to get to their crab fishing grounds. It may not open up until mid-May. (Twitter/@jeddore1972) Source: CBC

The title of this post sounds contradictory to most of what the media is saying about Arctic ice being in a tailspin, setting records for low extents, etc. And reports of ice blocking Newfoundland also fly in the face of media claims.

I will let you in on a secret: Arctic Ocean ice is doing fine and well above the decadal average. The only place where ice is below normal is outside the Arctic Ocean, namely Bering and Okhotsk Seas in the Pacific. Claims of disappearing ice pertain not to the Arctic itself, but to marginal Pacific seas that will melt out anyway in September.

I noticed the pattern this April when it became obvious that including Bering and Okhotsk in…

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Arctic Ice Extent Recovering At Record Pace

“Record” Arctic sea-ice recovery despite record CO2 emissions this Century and rising!

In fact a third of all Human CO2 emissions since 1750 have been emitted this Century, yet global temps have plateaued and the Arctic is currently tracking record recovery.

Time for a global-warming-theory check? It is, after all, still a “theory” with not a single peer-reviewed paper yet to link empirical evidence with the small amount of warming that has occurred since 1850 – about 0.8C, depending on which data-set is used.

Furthermore the slight warning that has occurred is arguably beneficial to human wellbeing and plant growth, as opposed to dangerous cooling. Far more lives are lost to cold weather than to warm.

As well, numerous studies, including from AGW alarmist government agencies NASA and the CSIRO have shown that rising CO2 emissions are “greening” the planet, which with great irony happens to be a very unwelcome message for the environmental movement.

CSIRO Censoring Their Own Climate Research:
https://climatism.wordpress.com/2015/03/25/csiro-censoring-their-own-climate-research/

So much for the “Ice-free Arctic by 2014”, “Arctic Death Spiral”, “Arctic Imminent Doom”, “Arctic Tipping Points” and other alarmist predictions spouted by climate scientists, government agencies and their sycophant media.

The Arctic is the ultimate ‘canary in the coal-mine’ for global warming alarmists, and it is currently recovering at record pace, despite record CO2 emissions.

Cue “Global Warming Is Causing Record Arctic Ice Growth”! But don’t laugh, climate alarmists have already used that one to explain the undisputed *record* ice expansion and cooling of Antarctica 🇦🇶!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20160928

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

Arctic sea ice continues to grow back at a phenomenal rate. Since the start of the month, growth has comfortable exceeded anything on record since daily figures began in 1987.

image

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Ice has expanded by 0.896 million sq km, compared to the 1981-2010 average of 0.237 million sq km.

According to NSIDC, ice extent now stands at the fourth highest for this day in the last 10 years.

image

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

DMI actually show ice extent to be higher than NSIDC, roughly equal to 2013 and 2014, which raises questions in itself.

osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

DMI now estimate that the average extent for the month will be greater than, or on a par with, most of the last ten years. Only 2013 and 2014 are much greater.

It is clear that September ice extent has remained extremely stable since 2007, regardless of what happened before.

osisaf_nh_iceextent_monthly-09_en

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover_30y.uk.php

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Inconvenient: Record Arctic Sea Ice Growth In September

Ouch. Another failed climate prediction.

And yet another reason not to believe the favoured climate meme used by global warming alarmists to shut down debate – “the science is settled”…

Watts Up With That?

History Keeps Proving Prophets Of Eco-Apocalypse Wrong

image1491

Source data: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

Since hitting its earliest minimum extent since 1997, Arctic sea ice has been expanding at a phenomenal rate. Already it is greater than at the same date in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2015. Put another way, it is the fourth highest extent in the last ten years. Even more remarkably, ice growth since the start of the month is actually the greatest on record, since daily figures started to be kept in 1987. –Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, 25 September 2016

wadhams-collapse

One of the world’s leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years. In what he calls a “global disaster” now unfolding in northern latitudes as the sea area that freezes and melts each year shrinks to its lowest extent ever recorded…

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Arctic sea ice melt has turned the corner

That “Ice-Free Arctic” we were promised, on ice for yet another year… ❄️

Watts Up With That?

I almost called this yesterday, but I needed more data to be sure. All of the data I’ve looked at agrees, Arctic sea ice is now on the upswing, and in a big way.

Here is the plot from NSIDC:

n_stddev_timeseries-9-13-16

This graph from Wipneus shows the abruptness of the change:

amsr2-area-all-cmpare

And the physics of ice is also a dead giveaway. Here, the Arctic temperature shows a dramatic upswing.

meant_2016-09-13-16

This is why: when water freezes it releases its specific latent heat.

The specific latent heat is the amount of energy required to convert 1 kg (or 1 lb) of a substance from solid to liquid (or vice-versa) without a change in the temperature of the surroundings — all absorbed energy goes into the phase change — is known as the specific latent heat of fusion.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_heat#Specific_latent_heat

For water, that’s about 334 KiloJoules of energy per kilogram.

Added: Note that in the…

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No, Greenland Is Not Melting Down

Greenland gains 500 Gigatons of ice since September, has one “warm” day, so New Scientist and NOAA go into climate change “death spiral” mode !

H/t @AndyOz2

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Malcolm Bell

image

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2084297-record-early-ice-melt-in-greenland-due-to-freak-warm-weather/

Malcolm drew my attention to this article in New Scientist:

After record low amounts of sea ice across the Arctic Ocean last winter, spring has begun with an unprecedented early melt of land ice on Greenland.

Temperatures soaring above 10 °C caused more than a tenth of the island’s vast ice sheet to start melting on Monday and Tuesday this week, says Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen.

Previously, the earliest melting recorded over more than a tenth of Greenland was on 5 May 2010, Mottram said. Normally, significant melting does not begin there until at least mid-May.

The melt was driven primarily by weather fronts bringing warm air and heavy rain from the Atlantic Ocean to the south of the island, she says.

Meteorological records dating back to 1873 show temperatures this week are a record high for the…

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Polar bear habitat update end of April 2016: Plenty of sea ice for feeding

Global Warming alarmists media and activist groups; BBC, Sierra Club, National Geographic, Al Gore assured us that the Arctic would be ice-free by now.
You were lied to and Arctic sea ice is doing just fine:

You Were Lied To About Arctic Sea Ice Disappearing

Leonardo DiCaprio and those same alarmist media outlets and activist groups also preach the dire fate of the cuddly Polar Bear to push their man-made global warming agenda. This is also a lie.

Arctic sea ice and those cuddly polar bears are doing just fine.

“Polar bears consume 2/3 of all the food they need for the year during April-June and so far, ice conditions are looking just fine.”

polarbearscience

So, here we are near the end of the first month of the Arctic spring and there is still more ice than usual off Labrador and conditions in the Barents Sea are improving daily. The fear-mongers can blather all they like about the potential risks of bears swimming in summer – but spring is the critical seasonas far as sea ice is concerned for polar bears and all polar bear biologists know it. Polar bears consume 2/3 of all the food they need for the year during April-June and so far, ice conditions are looking just fine.

Cambridge Bay_we re OK_from Joe Prins

There is enough ice where there needs to be ice for polar bears to gorge themselves on new-born ringed and bearded seals – and that’s really all that matters. More ice off Labrador means more hunting ground for the Davis Strait polar bears that depend on the tens of thousands of young…

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Arctic Sea-Ice “Death Spiral”

It doesn’t matter what is true,
it only matters what people believe is true
.”
– Paul Watson,
co-founder of Greenpeace

According the top US scientists the Arctic should be ‘ice-free’ in a few weeks:

Screen Shot 2013-07-31 at , July 31, 12.42.21 PM

Professor Paul Wedhams delays an ‘ice-free’ Arctic by two years:

“Given present trends in extent and thickness, the ice in September will be gone in a very short while, perhaps by 2015.”

Screen Shot 2013-07-31 at , July 31, 12.50.14 PM

‘Arctic is Rotten and decayed and will all melt soon’

Via Real Science:

ScreenHunter_381 Jul. 29 12.06

David Barber says that the little remaining ice in the Arctic is rotten and decayed and will all melt soon. (He has been saying that for every year I can remember.)

Paul Beckwith of Sierra Club Canada still thinks “Arctic sea ice will vanish” in a few weeks:

Screen Shot 2013-07-31 at , July 31, 12.57.25 PM

National Geographic laments:

“Arctic Ice in ‘Death Spiral” with additional heating due to global warming, the extent of sea ice cover has gotten smaller and smaller over the summers since the 1980s. 

Screen Shot 2013-07-31 at , July 31, 1.01.12 PM

Look forward to Nat Geo’s Arctic ice Death Spiral, rotten decaying, ice-free arctic 2013 update: “We’ve got no idea what we’re talking about. However human’s are still to blame, the problem of global warming will hopefully not go away.”

From Real Science:

Reader Brian D sent over this 1971 National Geographic map, which shows that there is a lot more Arctic sea ice now than there was 42 years ago.

ScreenHunter_11 Jul. 30 19.16

Arctic Ocean Map 1971 by National Geographic from Maps.com.

I remember seeing that map at the time.  The next map overlays current ice extent on the 1971 map, with green representing ice present in 2013 that was not present in 1971, and red representing the opposite.

ScreenHunter_12 Jul. 30 19.29

NSIDC likes to pretend that ice has been declining steadily, by starting their graphs near the century maximum in 1978.

ScreenHunter_168 Jun. 15 11.08

N_05_plot.png (420×240)

But sadly for them, the 1990 IPCC report captured the growth in ice prior to 1979.

ScreenHunter_170 Jun. 15 11.10

www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf

NCAR mentioned the ice growth at the time

by Walter Orr Roberts  Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies, andNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

In February of 1972 earth-orbiting artificial satellites revealed the existence of a greatly increased area of the snow and ice cover of the north polar cap as compared to all previous years of space age observations.

www.iaea.org/Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/Bull165/16505796265.pdf

As did the CIA

PaintImage10991 (1)

CIA Report 1974

Is Mark Serreze hiding the incline of Arctic ice since 1971?

#ArcticIceScam

2013 ARCTIC STATS:

  • 2013: According to Environment Canada, the Western Arctic has the 3rd highest July ice coverage in history:

canada sea ice west arctic 2 record

  • Beaufort Sea ice area currently above normal:

beaufort

  • Arctic sea-ice extent highest for the date since 2005:

Arctic sea ice extent

  • 2013 the coldest summer on record in the Arctic:

COLDEST SUMMER ARCTIC

UPDATE:

Latest Death Spiral Forecast

August 3, 2013by 

Our leading diplomats, scientists and environmental organizations have promised that the remaining 155,000 Manhattans of Arctic sea ice are going to melt in the next week or two. The graph below updates the most likely death spiral trajectory.

ScreenHunter_127 Aug. 03 06.03

COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013

– John Kerry, US Secretary of State

John Kerry: We Can’t Ignore the Security Threat from Climate Change

James Hansen : ‘This is the last chance’

6/23/2008

“We see a tipping point occurring right before our eyes,” Hansen told the AP before the luncheon. “The Arctic is the first tipping point and it’s occurring exactly the way we said it would.”

Hansen, echoing work by other scientists, said thatin five to 10 years, the Arctic will be free of sea ice in the summer.

NASA warming scientist: ‘This is the last chance’ – USATODAY.com

June 26, 2013

The alarming loss of sea ice which has grown worse each summer over the past several decades, has taken a sharp turn for the worse: this year the loss is right in the middle, the most resilient part of the ice cover. This could lead to a completely ice-free Arctic Ocean by September.

Unprecedented hole is growing in Arctic sea ice – Fairfax Climate WatchWhy Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 | Sierra Club Canada

UPDATE:

NOAA Reminds Us That They Have Degenerated Into A Propaganda Wing Of The White House

ScreenHunter_05 Aug. 06 22.59

Noaa report says Arctic sea ice is disappearing at unprecedented pace | World news | theguardian.com

Disappearing at an unprecedented rate, means growing at an unprecedented rate since last summer.

ScreenHunter_271 Aug. 06 08.02

COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Satellite imagery shows that there is 50% more ice than last year (green area.)

ScreenHunter_291 Aug. 06 16.35

UPDATE:

Second Largest Arctic Ice Gain On Record

Arctic ice area has increased by almost 20,000 Manhattans from this date last year, making it the second largest increase on record. The only year which gained more ice was 1996.

In a few days, it is likely that 2013 will move into the #1 spot.

ScreenHunter_64 Aug. 07 22.23

arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

 

Cheers, Steven Goddard Real Science