Global temperatures plunge in April – “the pause” returns

It must have something to do with the new coal-fired power stations that China and India are putting online every day of the week, for the past ~10 years and many more in the pipe.
The question is, how far will temperatures further plunge by the time India brings online its planned 2,600 coal-fired power stations over the next 10 years. ?

…let alone China.

Watts Up With That?

Global temperatures have dropped 0.5° Celsius in April according to Dr. Ryan Maue. In the Northern Hemisphere they plunged a massive 1°C . As the record 2015/16 El Nino levels off, the global warming hiatus aka “the pause” is back with a vengeance. He writes:

Some good news to end April, global temperature anomaly has fallen to only +0.1°C today (snapshot) … graphic is like stock market trace

Global Ocean Temperatures Drop To Pre-El Nino Levels

Despite NOAA’s Denial, A Growing Number Of Studies Confirm the Global Warming Hiatus

Despite widespread denial among climate activists, a growing number of scientific research papers in recent months have confirmed the global warming hiatus, trying to explain its possible reasons (for the latest studies see herehere and here).  The latest study claims that the Southern Ocean played a critical role in the global warming slowdown.

h/t to the GWPF


Dr. Roy Spencer says while…

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New ‘Karl-buster’ paper confirms ‘the pause’, and climate models failure

“The gap between observations and models persists. The observed trend deviated by as much as −0.17 °C per decade from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5; ref. 19) ensemble-mean projection1—a gap two to four times the observed trend.

The hiatus therefore continues to challenge climate science.”

– Nature Climate Change (PEER-REVIEWED STUDY)

“This paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.
That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.”

The “pause/hiatus” in Global Warming is now nearing 20 YEARS. This despite *record* man-made CO2 emitted over the same period.

Don’t be at all surprised if – CNN, BBC, ABC, CNBC, LATimes, NYTimes, WaPo, The Age, SMH and the rest of the “climate change” obsessed sycophant media don’t report this massively inconvenient climate news. – Too many reputations, jobs, govt grants and funding are now at stake.

Watts Up With That?

The “uncertainty monster” strikes again

We’ve been highly critical for some time of the paper in summer 2015 by Karl et al. that claimed “the pause” or hiatus went away once “properly adjusted” ocean surface temperature data was applied to the global surface temperature dataset. Virtually everyone in the climate skeptic community considers Karl et al. little more than a sleight of hand.

No matter, this paper published today in Nature Climate Change by Hedemann et al. not only confirms the existence of “the pause” in global temperature, but suggests a cause, saying “…the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance“.

That’s an important sentence, because it demonstrates that despite many claims to the contrary, CO2 induced forcing of the planetary temperature is not the control knob, and natural variability remains in force.

Also of note, see the offset as designated…

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2016 Global Temperature: The Pause Never Went Away

The obvious question now is: When is the record output of human CO2 emissions meant to cause the global warming that 97% of the UN IPCC’s CMIP5 models predicted?

Do we keep spending trillions of taxpayers money on climate schemes and scams based on overheated computer predictions or do we do as science does and re-evaluate the CO2=warming theory based upon real-world observations?

The answer is a simple one, however ideology, jobs and reputations will deny reason and the obvious.

Watts Up With That?

The Met Office yesterday confirmed that the warm record of 2016 was mainly driven by a very strong El Nino.

Guest essay by Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor

Not that you would have heard this fact in the news. But Peter Stott, Acting Director of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said in no uncertain terms that, “a particularly strong El Nino event contributed about 0.2°C to the annual average for 2016.”

By removing this temporary El Nino contribution from the Met Office’s 2016 data, it becomes obvious that global average temperatures would be essentially identical to where they were in 2014 (see fig 1). Since the El Nino warming is fading and global temperatures are dropping rapidly, they are close to being back to where they were before the latest El Nino started.

There are two ways to look at the just released global temperature of 2016 and press…

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The Pause Is Back, It Never Went Away

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

trend

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/plot/rss/from:1998/trend

Pronouncements of its death were premature – the pause has never gone away!

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How The Pause Was Made To Disappear

Bookmark this …

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image_thumb51

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/06/09/the-met-office-the-pause-2/

Once upon a time there was a pause.

There was no secret or argument about this. Hundreds of scientists spent years trying to explain it.

The Met Office even published the above 24 page paper in 2013, which stated:

image_thumb52

And this was exactly the situation the Met Office were looking at when they made that pronouncement.

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The Pause continues, but the warmers claim hottest this, hottest that

JunkScience.com

UK Met warmers admit that there has been no warming, so why do NOAA and others continue to make hottest claims? It’s politics, it’s always been agit prop and politics.

I would also say that pause may be the wrong word to use, since it presumes there will be warming on the other side of the pause. I keep hearing about problems with that assumption.

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The Pause lengthens yet again


For the alarmists and hardened global warming believers out there, some pre-information on the atmospheric measurement systems used to measure the presence of ‘man-made’ CO2-induced global warming:

– RSS and UAH satellites measure the lower troposphere – the precise area of the atmosphere where “Global Warming” theory is measured. Alarmists now point to the oceans as the main component of the “Global Warming” system. They do this precisely because the atmosphere has indeed stopped warming, despite the fact that 35% of all human CO2 emissions, since 1750, have been emitted over the past 18 years, with NO atmospheric ‘Global Warming’, at all. A terrible stat for the global warming cult.

Atmospheric Scientist Dr Roy Spencer on RSS and UAH satellite temperature measurements systems:

“thermometers [GISS GHCN – NASA, NOAA, BoM] cannot measure global averages — only satellites can. The satellite instruments measure nearly every cubic kilometer – hell, every cubic inch — of the lower atmosphere on a daily basis. You can travel hundreds if not thousands of kilometers without finding a thermometer nearby.”

– The name ‘Global Warming’ was changed to ‘Climate Change’ when it became obvious the atmosphere had stopped warming. This suits the agenda nicely, as the name ‘Climate Change’ cannot be falsified. The ‘climate’ always changes. Hence, any metric can be used to prove their theory: hot, cold, wet, dry, drought, flood, fire or ice. Therefore as a ‘science’, the theory of “climate change” is a null-hypothesis. It is therefore pseudo-science.

– Lower tropospheric Satellite temperature data was all the rage in the 1990’s when it ‘was’ warming. Now it is scoffed at by the global warming clique.

– Any adult entering university/college this year, or next, would have never ever experienced any ‘Global Warming’, at all, in their entire lives.

Watts Up With That?

A new record Pause length: no warming for 18 years 8 months

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since January 1997. Yet for 224 months since then there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). With this month’s RSS temperature record, the Pause sets a new record at 18 years 8 months.

clip_image002

Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 8 months since January 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings occurred during the period of the Pause.

As ever, a warning about the current el Niño. It is becoming ever more likely that the temperature increase that usually accompanies an el Niño will begin to shorten the Pause somewhat, just in time for the Paris climate summit, though a…

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The Pause draws blood – A new record Pause length: no warming for 18 years 7 months

For the alarmists and hardened global warming believers out there, some pre-information on the atmospheric measurement systems used to measure the presence of ‘man-made’ CO2-induced global warming:

– RSS and UAH satellites measure the lower troposphere – the precise area of the atmosphere where “Global Warming” theory is measured. Alarmists now point to the oceans as the main component of the “Global Warming” system. They do this precisely because the atmosphere has indeed stopped warming, despite the fact that 35% of all human CO2 emissions, since 1751, have been emitted over the past 18 years, with NO atmospheric ‘Global Warming’, at all. A terrible stat for the global warming cult.

– The name ‘Global Warming’ was changed to ‘Climate Change’ when it became obvious the atmosphere had stopped warming. This suits the agenda greatly, as the name ‘Climate Change’ cannot be falsified. The ‘climate’ always changes. Hence, any metric can be used to prove their theory: hot, cold, wet, dry, drought, flood. Therefore as a ‘science’, the theory of “climate change” is a null-hypothesis. i.e pseudo-science.

– Lower tropospheric Satellite temperature data (UAH and RSS) was all the rage in the 1990’s when it ‘was’ warming. Now it is scoffed at by the global warming clique.

– Any adult entering university this year, or next, would have never experienced any ‘Global Warming’ in their entire lives.

Watts Up With That?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

For 223 months, since January 1997, there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature shows the Pause setting a new record at 18 years 7 months.

It is becoming ever more likely that the temperature increase that usually accompanies an El Niño will begin to shorten the Pause somewhat, just in time for the Paris climate summit, though a subsequent La Niña would be likely to bring about a resumption and perhaps even a lengthening of the Pause.

clip_image002

Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 7 months since January 1997.

The hiatus period of 18 years 7 months is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend. The start date is not…

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Gavin Denies The Pause

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/06/noaa-temperature-record-updates-and-the-hiatus#ITEM-18571-0

Richard Mallett kindly points me towards Gavin’s comments on the Karl paper. It laughingly contains this comment:

.

had

rss

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2001/to:2015/plot/rss/from:2001/to:2015/trend

Yes, really fragile, Gavin!!

To compound matters, he then tries a bit of misdirection about the temperature standstill:

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Warmists Who Denied The Pause Now Claim To Explain It

Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the
equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun
.”
– Prof Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University

Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the
industrialized civilizations collapse?
Isn’t it our responsiblity to bring that about
?”
– Maurice Strong,
founder of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

The Earth has cancer
and the cancer is Man
.”
– Club of Rome,
premier environmental think-tank,
consultants to the United Nations

•••

A “Settled Science” update via Andrew Bolt’s Blog :

Warmists who denied the pause now claim to explain it

I guess just the acknowledgement is progress, but I do think Matthew England at least owes an apology.

Matthew England contradicting former Senator Nick Minchin in April 2012:

NICK MINCHIN: …Basically we’ve had a plateauing of temperature rise. I mean we are in a warming phase. The world is either warming or cooling. It never stops doing nothing. It’s either warming or cooling. We’ve had a warming phase since the end of the little ice age, 150 years ago. In terms of global average temperature it peaked 1998 and it is effectively stable now, despite the increase in CO2. So there is a major problem with the warmist argument because we have had rising CO2 but we haven’t had the commensurate rise in temperature that the IPCC predicted.

ANNA ROSE: That’s just not true, Nick…

MATTHEW ENGLAND: What Nick just said is actually not true. The IPCC projections of 1990 have borne out very accurately…

Matthew England in December 2012:


… we’re halfway through this projected period. And the warming to date is consistent with that [IPCC] projection.

And so anybody out there lying that the IPCC projections are overstatements or that the observations haven’t kept pace with the projections is completely offline with this.  And so anybody out there lying that the IPCC projections are overstatements or that the observations haven’t kept pace with the projections is completely offline with this. The analysis is very clear that the IPCC projections are coming true.

But Matthew England today:

The near two-decade long “pause” in rising average global surface temperatures was a “distraction” that did not change long-term model predictions of a much ­hotter world this century, according to new research.

Climate scientists at University of NSW said “natural variability” could explain the slowdown or “hiatus” despite strongly rising ­levels of carbon ­dioxide in the ­atmosphere…

Research leader Matthew ­England said …  “It is simply due to decadal variability. Greenhouse gases will eventually overwhelm this natural fluctuation,” he said…

“Our research shows that while there may be short-term fluctuations … long-term warming of the planet is an inevitable consequence of ­increasing greenhouse gas concentrations,” he said.

“This much-hyped global warming slowdown is just a distraction to the task at hand”.

Maybe, maybe not. But this concession is interesting:


The paper also suggests that decadal climate oscillations were not pushing heat into the deep oceans, another explanation for the “missing heat” and absence of surface warming.

Also published now in Nature Climate Change, another paper trying to explain the pause that England once denied:

Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming.

•••

UPDATE

via WattsUpWithThat :

Climate modeler Matthew England still ignoring reality – claims IPCC models will eventually win

…On the plus side, at least he acknowledges the existence of “the pause” now, but says it’s irrelevant. Whatever.

Read more here »

•••

See also :