OPEN Letter To The Bureau Of Meteorology – Tropical Cyclone Trends

tc-graph-1969-2012.png

Graph showing the number of severe and non-severe tropical cyclones from 1970–2011 which have occurred in the Australian region. Severe tropical cyclones are those which show a minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa.

Dear BoM,

I have been a keen observer of weather and climate for well over a climate point (42 years)!

The chaotic system of climate and “climate change” is ever fascinating. Though, today the ‘chaos’ has been replaced by an unhealthy polarization of “the science”, all too often determined by belief, politics and ideology. Sadly, dogma has trumped empirical evidence, corrupting the scientific method.

That said, I am seeking from you an updated version of the cyclone trends graph which ends at 2011. The BoM site has excellent data up to 2017 to complete the series. Is there a reason why the data has not been translated to the current graph? I would be happy to work on getting it up to date if resources are limited!

As a start, there is a written record from 2012-2015 here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/index.shtml

However, this record does not quite match the said graph 1969 – 2011. Methodology for what qualifies the graphed record would be appreciated.

Sincerely,

Jamie Spry (Melbourne, Australia)


UPDATE 29 August 2017

Response from The Bureau’s Climate Help Desk:

Screen Shot 2017-08-29 at , August 29, 6.44.07 PM.png

Dear Jamie,

Thank you for your recent query to the Bureau of Meteorology regarding your interest in cyclones in the Australian region.

The page that you refer to is amongst the pages that we have been updating and we hope to have an updated cyclones graph along with updated text pointing to the most recent science as soon as possible.

The graph shows analysed tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region. The cyclone numbers, especially for recent years, may have changed slightly due to post-event analysis giving the most accurate numbers possible of tropical cyclones in the Australian region.

The web page that you point to in your letter does provide a list of historical tropical cyclones in the Australian region, but please be aware that this list is not exhaustive, with only those tropical cyclones that had an individual cyclone report completed appearing on this list. For a more complete account of historical tropical cyclone track data please refer to the ‘database of past tropical cyclone tracks’ also linked off this page.

Regards,

Climate Information Services

Climate Information Services | Community Forecasts | Bureau of Meteorology

helpdesk.climate@bom.gov.au


From: Jamie Spry [mailto:james_spry@icloud.com]

Sent: Wednesday, 16 August 2017 3:31 PM

To: Accessibility; Business Solutions

Cc: ministerfrydenberg.invitations@environment.gov.au; moran@regulationeconomics.com; ipe_2@bigpond.com; Andrew Bolt; joanne@joannenova.com.au; Alan Jones; info@2gb.com; jennifermarohasy@gmail.com

Subject: Tropical Cyclone Trends – Australia Update

Dear BoM,

I have been a keen observer of weather and climate for well over a climate point (42 years)!

The chaotic system of climate and “climate change” is ever fascinating. Though today the ‘chaos’ has been replaced by an unhealthy polarization of “the science”, determined by belief, politics and ideology. Sadly, dogma has trumped empirical evidence, corrupting the scientific method.

That said, I am seeking from you an updated version of the cyclone trends graph which ends at 2011. The BoM site has excellent data up to 2017 to complete the series. Is there a reason why the data has not been translated to the current graph? I would be happy to work on getting it up to date if resources are limited!

As a start, there is a written record from 2012-2015 here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/index.shtml

However, this record does not quite match the said graph 1969 – 2011. Methodology for what qualifies the graphed record would be appreciated.

Sincerely,

Jamie Spry (Melbourne, Australia)

OPEN Letter To The Bureau Of Meteorology – Tropical Cyclone Trends

Appreciate BoM replying to my enquiry, and, look forward to seeing the updated version with with updated text pointing to the most recent science”. With that statement in mind, will be interesting to see what qualifies a cyclone for the updated graph 2012-17.

BoM also notes “The cyclone numbers, especially for recent years, may have changed slightly due to post-event analysis giving the most accurate numbers possible of tropical cyclones in the Australian region.” 

Sounds obscure.

Have their qualification methods changed? Will it be easier to make the cut?

Worth keeping in mind that “severe” cyclones qualify as “those which show a minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa” (BoM).

As noted in original email:

As a start, there is a written record from 2012-2015 here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/index.shtml

However, this record does not quite match the said graph 1969 – 2011. Methodology for what qualifies the graphed record would be appreciated.

Jennifer Marohasy replied to me on this, in regards to assignment of categories…

Hi Jamie

Thanks for copying me in on this.  

Of course there is also the problem of them wrongly assigning categories, more info here: http://jennifermarohasy.com/2015/02/know-cyclone-marcia-category-5-landfall/ 

Cheers,  Jennifer 

Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD

Senior Fellow, Institute of Public Affairs, www.ipa.org.au 

Founder, The Climate Modelling Laboratory, www.climatelab.com.au

Own website, www.jennifermarohasy.com

Will wait for the updated version and check the assignment of particular cyclones to the updated version and check against the BoM’s data up to 2017.

In the meantime, checkout Jennifer’s excellent work on the topic:

How do we know that Cyclone Marcia was a Category 5 at landfall? – Jennifer Marohasy

TBC…

*

UPDATE 6 Sep 2017

The Bureau has updated our Tropical Cyclone trends graph. Data updated for period 2010/11 – 2017…

tc-graph-1969-2017.png

Graph showing the number of severe and non-severe tropical cyclones from 1970-2017 which have occurred in the Australian region. Severe tropical cyclones are shown here as those with a minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa.

THE cyclone trend remains on a downward curve as CO2 rises.

WILL further investigate categorisation, and which cyclones made the cut 2010/11 – 2017.

Stay tuned…

*

 

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