Finally, a study that shows unreliable models are the root of overwrought ‘extreme weather’ events

And yet still, draconian climate policy and literally trillions of dollars worth of ‘green’ schemes and scams are dictated and directed around overheated IPCC and CSIRO climate models that *do not* observe reality and are simply broken.

Watts Up With That?

Dr. Judith Curry tips me to this new study in GRL:

Unreliable climate simulations overestimate attributable risk of extreme weather and climate events

Omar Bellprat, Francisco Doblas-Reyes

Event attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event occurs in two counterfactual worlds. These probabilities are typically computed using ensembles of climate simulations whose simulated probabilities are known to be imperfect. The implications of using imperfect models in this context are largely unknown, limited by the number of observed extreme events in the past to conduct a robust evaluation. Using an idealized framework, this model limitation is studied by generating large number of simulations with variable reliability in simulated probability. The framework illustrates that unreliable climate simulations are prone to overestimate the attributable risk to climate change. Climate model ensembles tend to be…

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