Rate Of Sea Level Rise Is Decelerating, Not Accelerating As CO² Rises

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…
climate change provides the greatest opportunity to
bring about justice and equality in the world
.”
– Christine Stewart,
former Canadian Minister of the Environment

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

•••

Jo Nova analyses a new paper that shows the rate of global sea-level rise has slowed since 2004.

via JoanneNova.com.au :

A new paper shows that sea levels rose faster in the ten years from 1993-2003 than they have since. Sea levels are still rising but the rate has slowed since 2004. This does not suggest that the missing energy from the atmosphere has snuck into the ocean, but rather that the oceans and the atmosphere were both warming faster in the 1990′s, then as coal power ramped up in China and billions of tons of CO2 was released, both the atmosphere and the ocean did not gain more energy per year, but less. That message again — something else appears to be the main driver the climate, not CO2.

Their highlights include:

  • The global mean sea level started decelerated rising since 2004.
  • Deceleration is due to slowdown of ocean thermal expansion during last decade.
  • Recent ENSO events introduce large uncertainty of long-term trend estimation.

This paper discusses and graphs total sea level rise, steric sea level rise and the global mean ocean mass. The Steric Sea Level is the part of the rise due to warming and salinity changes, so it best represents changes in ocean heat content. The total rise also includes water coming or going due to changes in glaciers, run-off, ice,  evaporation and rain. GRACE data measures only the changes in gravity, which is caused by changes in water mass. Jason/Topex altimeter satellites measure the total sea-level changes and the steric component is calculated from the altimitry and GRACE data. I chose only the steric sea level graphs here, but the total sea level graphs and ocean mass graphs are also available in the paper.

All this comes with the caveat that inasmuch as most experts accept that seas were rising by 3mm a year in the 1990′s, the raw satellite data showed next to nothing until it was adjusted. Hence the rate changes discussed in this paper could be an artefact of those adjustments. Sea levels might not have slowed their rate of rise, it may be that it was not rising very quickly in the first place, and is still not rising very fast. Either way, it doesn’t support the theory that pumping out CO2 makes much difference.

That said, the change is most obvious in Figure 1b.

Figure 1b The global mean steric sea level (GMSL) with the ending date changing from 1 to 24 months earlier relative to December 2012 (bottom panel, thin lines end with the color from red to yellow). The IMFs of each time series, corresponding to the high-frequency noise, the annual
cycle, the interannual variability, and the trend function (see text), are given as the colored lines in the panels from top to bottom, respectively. The ensemble mean of the IMFs on the different time scales during 1993-2010 are given as the thick black solid line in each panel. The colored bar in the third panel is the normalized Nino 3.4 index with arbitrary amplitude. The statistical confidence interval of the trend function is given by gray shadow in the bottom panel. The data is in units of cm.

The details of the rate of change:

The intrinsic trend of the [Global Mean Sea Level] GMSL derived by EMD exhibits an accelerated rising period during 1993-2003 with mean rate 3.2±0.4 mm/yr and a decelerated rising period since 2004 with the rate about 1.8±0.9 mm/yr in 2012.

Here’s the clincher… the cause of the change in the rate was mainly due to the shift in the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation):

Comparison between the [Global Mean Sea Level], the global mean steric sea level, and the global mean ocean mass indicates that the decreasing of the rising trend is mainly due to the stalled ocean heat content which started in the early 2000s, when the PDO switched from the warm polarity to cold polarity…

The changes are apparent in figure 5b below — this is the average steric sea level rises before and after 2003. A large section of the central Pacific seems to have shifted from gaining heat before 2003 to losing heat in the last decade.

Figure 5b. Mean trend of the steric sea level rise during (top) Period 1 (1993-2003) and (bottom)
Period 2 (2004-2012).

..

Over the last 20 years the oceans have been gently expanding sometimes at faster rates and sometimes slower. Note this graph is the rate of the change in the rate… not a simple graph of the rate itself.

Figure 2. The instantaneous rate of interannual variability of (b) the global mean
steric sea level, i.e. the first-order time derivative of third IMFs shown in Figure 1.

Of interest:

“The regression of the global sea level and the global steric sea level on their corresponding third IMFs (Figure 3) shows very similar ENSO-like patterns. Notice that the sea level can adjust to changes in the ocean mass within a matter of days through barotropic waves travelling at speeds of order 200 m/s [Lorbacher et al. 2012], the spatial pattern of the ocean mass change on the interannual time scale is nearly homogeneous in the world ocean. This indicates that the spatial pattern of the internanual variability of the GMSL should be attributed to the steric sea level change, while the amplitude is dominated by the change of the ocean mass.”

H/t To The HockeySchtick

REFERENCE

Chen, Feng, Huang (2013)  Global Sea Level Trend during 1993-2012,  Global and Planetary Change online 13 November 2013. [abstract]

•••

Climatism comment :

Despite 35% of all human CO² emissions, since 1751, emitted in the last 15 years, three key climate indicators continue to defy the “Global Warming” hypothesis:

  1. The rate of global sea-level rise has slowed since 2004
  2. There has been no atmospheric temperature rise over the last 15 years
  3. Ocean temperatures remain flat since 2004

It appears something else is the main driver of climate, not CO².

•••

Sea Level Related :

Ocean Related :

Climate Related :


Most Intense Typhoons On The Decline

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 

As I mentioned in an earlier post, there have been 35 typhoons with an atmospheric pressure of 895 mb or less, the figure measured for Yolanda.

The chart below plots these by year.

 

image

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones#Western_North_Pacific_Ocean

 

 

The almost total absence of such intense storms in the last two decades is notable.

View original post


Understanding The Global Warming “Pause”

We’ve got to ride this global warming issue.
Even if the theory of global warming is wrong,
we will be doing the right thing in terms of
economic and environmental policy.

– Timothy Wirth,
President of the UN Foundation

The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations
on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models
.”
– Prof. Chris Folland,
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

We are getting close to catastrophic tipping points,
despite the fact that most people barely notice the warming yet
.”
– Dr James Hansen,
NASA researcher

•••

Re-pressed via Real Science :

Understanding The Global Warming Pause

Some of the leading explanations for the global warming pause from the team.

  • We can’t account for the missing heat, and it is a travesty that we can’t.
  • The heat all sank to the bottom of the ocean.
  • The oceans are accumulating 400,000 atom bombs worth of heat per day.
  • The pause is thanks to the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which reduced CFC’s – but warming will return soon.
  • There is no pause, the rate of warming has doubled

These world class morons simply can’t deal with the fact that there is no global warming, and that their models have failed miserably. So they just spew mindless contradictory nonsense out of every dark orifice they can locate.

ScreenHunter_60 Nov. 15 23.02

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

ScreenHunter_1756 Oct. 22 19.36

via Understanding The Global Warming Pause.

•••

UPDATE

via Real Science

A Third Of A Century – And Nothing

Posted on November 15, 2013 by 

I became a true believer in global warming 33 years ago, while doing research at Los Alamos National Labs.

A third of a century later, nothing they predicted has come true. The US just had the quietest tornado season on record, the quietest hurricane season on record, the fewest forest fires since 1984, the second fewest hundred degree readings in a century, and no change in global temperature for 17 years.

It is all a bunch of total bullshit.

•••

State Of The Climate Report

Topics That Won’t Be Discussed At This Year’s UNFCCC – COP19 Climate Jamboree :

SEA LEVEL RISE

Evil human’s 12 parts per million CO² contribution to the atmosphere is clearly having a catastrophic impact on Gaia Mother Earth. The science is settled, the debate is over, anyone who disagrees is a denier and a flat-earth terrorist….

But seriously. What more is required of mother nature to prove that humans 3% contribution to atmospheric CO² (versus her 97%) is NOT having the ‘catastrophic’ impact on our climate that we are brainwashed into believing? In fact, in nearly every case, the *opposite* is happening, to what the global warming alarmists, fear mongers, climate profiteers, rent-seekers and complicit media preach to us daily.

Settled Science?

•••

Related Info :

Peer-Reviewed studies that confirm the lack of any recent global warming :